静静看趋势

The Federal Reserve will provide its last answer of the year in the early morning.

The market has already determined a 25 basis point rate cut - with a probability of 89.4%. Both smart money and retail investors are waiting for the same thing.

In fact, everyone has a sense of whether there will be a rate cut; the key is how the expectations will be mapped out after the cut.

If it's just a routine 25 basis point cut, accompanied by a roadmap indicating no further cuts expected next year, the market is likely to turn directly downward afterwards.

普通交易者迟迟悟不到交易的本质，最大障碍不是技术，也不是心态，而是样本量永远不够。

几笔顺利的交易看起来像掌握了规律，但从统计角度，它们几乎毫无意义。

短期连续盈利并不能证明方法有效，它更多只是在反映短期噪音、市场情绪波动，甚至是某一段行情刚好与你的偏好吻合。

你以为自己看懂了市场，其实只是在小样本里被运气带飞。

真正的交易认知必须建立在足够多的观察和验证之上。你需要看到不同周期、不同波动结构、不同市场状态下，同一种方法是否仍然成立。

如果它只在某些行情“刚好有效”，那说明你得到的是巧合，而不是能力。

BTC 盘面分析：

大饼晚上再次出现拉盘，高位突破了前方的高点，在前方高点附近受阻，上方的卖压还是很大的啊！

当前受阻再次下跌调整，马上也要议息了，降息的概率很大，基本算是稳稳的了，就看降息落地之后是应声上涨，还是利好落地变利空了！

上方受阻区间明显，继续关注，另外关注一下大压力98k的附近反应！下方低点在抬升，支撑也在抬升，当前关注支撑位置88k附近！

周四凌晨美联储决议，明牌的时间节点马上就要到了，市场86%的预期降息落地，但从目前的市场情绪和流动性上来看，就算落地也是靴子响一声，水花有限

1. 降息概率高达86%，降25个基点基本是共识，市场早已提前狂欢，谨防“买预期，卖事实”的老剧本重演，别太上头

2. 点阵图：重点是2026年的利率路径，目前市场押注降息2次，若暗示多于2次，意味着美联储决心长期放水，全球流动性盛宴继续，若暗示少于2次甚至只有1次，等于明牌收紧，警告市场“别太乐观”，资金会瞬间恐慌，撤离风险资产

3. 扩表：美联储已停止缩表（QT），下一步会不会反向扩表（QE），才是终极命题，
一旦释放哪怕一丝扩表信号，就等于官方宣布“新钱已在路上”，这将是比降息猛烈十倍的海啸级利好，所有风险资产将迎来狂暴牛市

现阶段的行情是反弹还是反转前的酝酿，答案即将揭晓，耐心等待！！！

2025.12.9 10:39 AM BTC/ETH Today's Trend Analysis
Last night BTC hit 89700 and shouted to let you take action, those who listened made profits, while those who didn't could only stare blankly. In the early morning, it rebounded to a maximum of 91338, creating a space of 1660+, enough for 800/1500 profits. Last night I already said you could not set a stop-loss, but you must set a take-profit, for example, 40% at 90500, 40% at 90800-91200! At this moment, isn’t this just gradually taking profits while keeping the bottom position? With the loss set to breakeven, it becomes a zero-risk game!
BTC
Support 87250/82845
Resistance 96422/102400
Key levels 88035/92228 The current trend has a bit of a pre-explosion feel, giving you a weak trend that makes you feel like it can’t rise anymore, and it even tries to lure you into shorting multiple times. At least for today and tomorrow, I still maintain an optimistic outlook. Whether the specific Federal Reserve interest rate decision will change the forecast will have to wait until after it lands to see the trend. Based on the current trend, unless it breaks, it will eventually touch 96422 and 102400 again!
ETH
Support 2941/2749
Resistance 3400/3592
3170 has been tested multiple times, whether it will be tested again below 3000, we will quietly wait. In the next test, it will be another opportunity to enter;
In terms of operations: Isn’t the volatile rise and fall the market you like? Without volatility, there’s no profit effect. Even with volatility, if you’re still not making money, then it’s not a problem with the market; the fundamental reason for not making money is your operation issues;
The size of your position depends on how much you can bear, how much capital you have left after losses, and how many opportunities you have. Many people often confuse this. Today, continue to look for opportunities to go long while maintaining some patience during this pullback!

For 10 years, I've been saying that housing prices are too high, and then real estate prices dropped, but no one bought...

For 2 years, I've been saying that BTC is too expensive, and then BTC also dropped in price, yet still no one bought...

It is clear that buying behavior is based on optimistic expectations, rather than simply the price being high or low.

A classic meme faces a dilemma on sol: the funding attention on sol switches too quickly, with new hot topics emerging every day. The classic meme community lacks the necessary development period, making it difficult to achieve long-term balance in price consensus and cultural consensus.

BTC Market Analysis:

The Bitcoin price is starting to consolidate at a relatively high level, digesting the emotions brought by this wave of increase. The overall parallel channel is still effective, and the upper edge has not been touched. If it starts to decline from here, pay attention to the central line around 90500!

The overall rhythm is still in a rebound phase, and no reversal has occurred. The rebound has formed a parallel channel, so for now, just focus on the reactions at the upper and lower edges of the channel! This is not a trending phase; it is recommended to operate primarily based on segments and not to get too carried away!

Recently, the topic of interest rate hikes in Japan has become the biggest variable affecting the financial markets after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is not just a domestic issue; it is a 'pricing anchor' concerning global capital costs. If the Federal Reserve controls the faucet's switch, then the Bank of Japan controls the water temperature. The sharp drop last August was a 'shock therapy,' and the current hawkish signals are akin to 'boiling a frog in warm water.' Although there won't be an instantaneous crash, it will continuously siphon off speculative liquidity from the market.

The price of U has dropped, the sky has fallen, and I have all the U prepared for buying at the bottom. I guess one reason is that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in December, and the other reason is that the University of Tokyo continues to crack down on virtual currencies, especially targeting money laundering and illegal currency exchange involving stablecoins, leading many people to sell their U, hahahaha, damn it.

In some places, virtual currencies are recognized because they are free and democratic, and the people have the right to choose, while in other places, some officials see the common people as fish and meat, and the national treasury as private property, squandering without restraint. We have internal pests.

FARTCOIN
After a good increase, FARTCOIN went fully direct last time!

Now at the current price, I've entered a small position to go long again, with a stop loss at 0.35 and the target remains what was previously mentioned, 0.48-0.5!

After breaking through the trendline channel and pulling back twice, this time it shouldn't be a scam, right?

Recently, the FIR ecological project has seen a significant increase in trading activity on the Alpha platform. This project combines AI with the music industry, and ecological construction continues to advance, with multiple collaborative singles performing outstandingly in the market. Among them, Kay Tse's new work "Cheng Guang Zhu Meng" has accumulated over 100 million plays on Tencent Music platform, ranking high on the charts and continuously contributing stable copyright revenue.
Latest updates show that the project team has released a development plan, expecting that by 2026, annual revenue based on music copyrights is likely to exceed $30 million. At the end of December this year, they plan to launch the "Copyright Pledge Pool" feature, at which time users participating in FIR liquidity provision (FIR-LP) can receive 50% of the pool's profit share (distributed in USDT).
Currently, the overall market value of FIR is approximately $6 million, still in the early stages of development. With business progress and market attention driving each other, combined with the current increase in trading volume and expectations for subsequent mechanism implementation, its valuation has certain growth potential. Investors should pay attention to its future developments based on their own judgment, be aware of market volatility risks, and make decisions cautiously.

This market is not pricing facts, but pricing fantasies

The market is ultimately driven by confidence and emotions:

Recently, I don't know if everyone has seen this truth:
The crypto market has never been priced based on fundamentals, nor based on data; fundamentals and data are merely the results of narrative changes, while emotions and confidence are the main drivers!

Because the market is fundamentally not rational and linear, after the significant drop on 1011, the lack of liquidity in the market is just a surface issue, but the real problem is that confidence has been shaken; after the collapse of confidence, even good news will be seen as bad news, and a slight rise will be seen as an opportunity to sell; however, if confidence returns, every bullish candle might be interpreted as a new cycle.

So when you see the market rising, there are good news everywhere, but when it's falling, there is bad news everywhere!

If you don't believe it, search today; everyone will see quite a lot of good news today.

So do you think the market is pricing facts? Wrong! In fact, the market has always been pricing fantasies: most of the time, what can be different in the market mainly depends on the inner thoughts of market participants;

Prices are merely the average of everyone's fantasies: in a market driven by emotions, the value of all information depends on what the market currently wants to believe.

So, family, what do you believe in now?

Is this wave a rebound from a scam or a reversal after the washout is complete?

Come on, vote: let's see if we can avoid the emotional extremes of most people!

Currently, the fluctuations of Bitcoin are almost highly synchronized with the Japanese yen. Why is that? Let’s talk about the arbitrage logic behind it. Simply put, in the past, the interest rates of the yen were extremely low (the cost of borrowing was almost zero), and many big players borrowed a large amount of yen, then exchanged these yen for US dollars to invest in high-risk, high-return assets like $BTC. This is called yen arbitrage trading. Now, the Bank of Japan is going to raise interest rates, and the cost of borrowing yen has increased. The big players must quickly close their positions (sell $BTC to exchange for US dollars, then convert back to yen to repay their debts).
Therefore, once the yen strengthens (arbitrage liquidation leads to increased buying of yen), $BTC will face selling pressure. Naturally, the price movement of $BTC is synchronized with the yen.

Thus, Bitcoin has completely integrated into the global macro liquidity cycle! It is no longer an isolated market but rather a barometer for the massive movement of global funds. The biggest risk now is the concentrated liquidation of yen arbitrage trades. This amount of capital is enormous, and once there is a large-scale withdrawal from the $BTC market, we will face continuous downward pressure.

A friend has been stuck with a long position in SOL for a while, and the forced liquidation is around 112. Around 2 AM yesterday, SOL was still near 137 and I suggested to open a short hedge, but he didn't. Today it suddenly dropped to 125, and if it breaks 120, it could easily accelerate down to around 114 and 104. It's hard to avoid a forced liquidation below 100.

Constantly adding to a long position that is stuck is a very dangerous behavior. After adding, you need to reduce your position in the rebound range of 137-144. Just adding without reducing leads to heavier positions, and if the position blows up, the losses will be greater. Especially since the forced liquidation of SOL long positions is between 110-100, all within this month's correction range, the position is very risky. This time the rebound didn't even touch 150; the next phase of volatility will be in the range of 144-100. One could say 150 has already become the ceiling. First, save your life; don't take chances. Japan hasn't raised interest rates yet, and if they do this month, 100 in January will be hard to maintain.

Putting the traditional web2 company valuation system onto real crypto projects is simply tying one's own hands and feet.

If someone talks about valuation in terms of how much a chain is currently making, what the PE is... and so on, I will immediately shut up and walk away, because there is no point in arguing.