加密鱼右右

Private message method, scan the Binance QR code to proceed

How should we operate in this market?

Definitely second-class three management

1. Define the trend:

Open EMA200, turning down, the major trend is shifting downwards, be cautious with long positions.

There is LL, the market is currently correcting, usually after the turning point there is either an opposite trend or a consolidation.

Consolidation: short at the top of the range ✅
Downward trend: short on rebounds ✅

Set the thinking, high short

2. Wait for the correction to be in place, wait for the upward momentum to weaken.

3. Manage orders:

You can wait to enter a small portion on the left side when the upward momentum weakens, enter on the right side when it starts to drop.

You can also directly enter on the right side.

(Okay, I placed a sell order after a bearish candle appeared on the 4H chart at the turning point, but the market kept going down without giving a chance, the replay point was quite fast, so I didn't get in, anyway, this is the thinking process.)

Is your "stop-loss" based on mathematics or emotions?

Recently, the market has been poor, and I've frequently gone out to play Texas Hold'em with friends. I found that many beginners actually treat Texas Hold'em as a static game of comparing hands, completely failing to distinguish between Equity and Equity Realization. Projected onto practice, after the flop, they either completely miss or are unwilling to continue calling even for low-cost opportunities, choosing to fold instead.

It seems like a rational strategy,
But does it really have a mathematical advantage?

Are you choosing to fold to escape the anxiety brought by uncertainty, or have you realized that calling is a negative EV choice and decided to fold? The former is merely a stop-loss emotion, and it doesn't stop your chips:

This simple fold strategy can be understood as your range being essentially fixed, because you never want to protect your range (by calling when you don't have a strong hand), which is akin to giving away information; when you actually have a hand, you can't extract value.

This Fit or Fold strategy gives several EVs to your opponents:
1. High fold rate on the flop: The flop cbet, eating into your fold rate's EV
2. Information EV: Once you choose to call on the flop, your hand strength is basically written all over your face with pairs and above
3. Implied odds EV: If your opponent has the nuts, you will basically pay 100% for "finally getting a strong hand"; if your opponent has a weak hand, you can’t extract value, and your information has already been exposed. A typical case of winning little and losing much.

Mathematically disadvantaged, it’s not yet time to talk about luck.

Leading Strategy
Core logic: When a sector's sentiment starts, the coins that hit the limit up first and have the highest trading volume are the 'signal flares' of the main force.
They often have the strongest consensus, the most traffic, and the largest premium space. Grabbing the leader is equivalent to seizing the lifeblood of the entire market cycle.
1. Three consecutive bullish candles on the 5-minute K-line + increasing volume
Three consecutive bullish candles, each with a larger body than the previous one, and the trading volume increases synchronously, indicating continuous capital inflow. If it appears at a low-level consolidation breakout, it is almost a signal for the market maker to start.
🔍 Key point: Increasing volume + expanding body + breaking pressure is most likely to trigger a short-term explosion.
2. 15-minute consolidation with reduced volume after breaking the previous high
When the coin price breaks the previous high and does not drop urgently, but instead consolidates with reduced volume bearish candles or small doji for 3 to 5 K-lines, it indicates that the selling pressure above has been absorbed. The main force is controlling the market waiting for a second pull-up.
🔍 Key point: Volume breakout + reduced volume consolidation = strong accumulation.
3. 1-minute V-shaped reversal + rapid pull-up without retracement
After a brief drop and touching the bottom, the coin price quickly rebounds and reaches a new high, forming a three-dimensional V. This means the market maker has completed the shakeout, and a small-cycle upward wave is starting.
🔍 Key point: The 1-minute V-shaped bottom often appears a few minutes before a surge, serving as a signal for ultra-short entry.
4. Multi-timeframe MACD golden cross resonance (5 min / 15 min / 1 hour)
When the MACD of three timeframes simultaneously shows a golden cross, and the histogram column turns from negative to positive, this is one of the strongest signals of trend resonance, indicating the formation of a bullish structure across multiple timeframes.
🔍 Key point: The more resonant periods, the more stable the trend, and the higher the participation of main funds.
5. Moving averages converge and then rapidly diverge
When MA7, MA20, MA60, and other moving averages have been intertwined at a low level for a long time before suddenly diverging upward, it indicates that the consolidation energy has been completely released. At this time, entering can capture the 'first round of main rise'.
🔍 Key point: The longer the convergence, the more intense the divergence, the sharper the increase.

🔍 Key point: Observe the capital flow of the sector; the leaders are often the core of the next day's explosion.
✅ Operation and risk control advice
Position control: Start with 30% for testing, increase to 60% after confirming a breakout, and do not chase high after a volume breakout.
Stop-loss: Stop-loss immediately if it falls below MA20 or key support.
Take profit: Take half profits at 20% of the main rising wave, fully exit when there is a long upper shadow with increased volume or three consecutive reduced volume bearish candles.
Timeframe: Focus on 1-minute to 15-minute operations, do not hold overnight.

The ARB project is definitely a good project, but the price is hard to say, it has already fallen to 0.2147U, unlocking hundreds of thousands of coins every day. I dare not touch ARB spot anymore, I have a shadow.

#BTC# ETH
There are three important time points in December, and the market in the next three weeks will fluctuate around these three time points. Here’s a summary for everyone;

First: December 11, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision. Previously, it was expected that there would be no rate cut in December, but currently, the probability of a rate cut is very high, at 87%;

Second: December 19, the Bank of Japan will announce the interest rate decision. Previously, the market expected that the Bank of Japan would not raise interest rates in December, but this past Monday, the Bank of Japan governor's public statement hinted that there is a high probability of a rate hike on the 19th;

Third: December 26, the large volume options expiration for Bitcoin at the end of the year. This can be said to be the most important expiration date in the options market, as it is both the expiration time for the fourth quarter and the last expiration time of the year, so the volume is very large, with a nominal price reaching 23 billion;

The first two are significant news items, as the decisions of the Federal Reserve on rate cuts and the Bank of Japan on rate hikes are both quite important. However, this time, the market expectations for both sides are different from the initial expectations, which increases market uncertainty;

The third is the options data. Currently, the biggest pain point for Bitcoin options is 100,000, and the maximum peak for PUTs is at 84, indicating that it is very difficult for Bitcoin's price to break and stabilize above 100,000 in December. The position at 84 has also seen institutions taking bearish protection. A few days ago, when Bitcoin broke below 84, it quickly rebounded without bottoming out, likely due to this reason.

Recently, there have been quite a few hot topics in the BSC土狗 #meme, but still, do not have faith, finish P and run!

In the past few days, the hot topics on BSC have come one after another, seeming lively, but in reality, the difficulty of playing is not low, mainly concentrated in two directions: Binance concepts and Douyin Zoo.

The Binance concept is a bit more popular, especially since it's their Dubai conference, like the mascot $bibi, $WAGBI, #executive officer Xiao He, and last night's $1, all related to the conference concepts.

However, these hot topics are too obvious, leading to severe market split at the opening, a #呀哈币币 concept has split into countless Chinese and English markets, greatly increasing the difficulty of the first wave of P.

The second phase is also not easy to play, since it’s a conference hot topic, the conference will eventually end, lacking long-term sustainability, many small coins basically die within two days, giving no opportunity for a second chance, although the leading coins do not die, the cleansing is not thorough, without an ATH 70% pullback, the cost-performance ratio is not high.

On the other side is the Douyin Zoo meme, which has produced a million-level #小小, seemingly stable, but in fact, it is highly likely to be just a wave as in the previous #茄子 outcome.

Many brothers like to set their expectations for the Douyin Zoo meme as high as #哈基米 and #恶俗企鹅, but don’t, there is a significant gap between them.

哈基米 and 恶俗企鹅 are not just about high video play counts in WEB2, but have already become commonly used memes on the internet, with a wide range of dissemination, involving different types of videos and industries, so definitely do not confuse the expectations of $小小 with them, focus on short P!

Currently, the large pancake Ethereum is still at the monthly MA20. Weekly MA5. Daily MA20. These supports are still running as resistances.
Currently, there has not been a breakthrough of the weekly MA20.
In fact, from a monthly perspective, it should not just be a small rebound.
The weekly MA5 cannot be held back.
However, one must consider the entry timing. It is better to enter when backtesting the daily MA20.
Currently, there is still an expectation of a rebound.
Summary. Enter when backtesting the MA20 to make a rebound.

Morning Report：

Before bed, I watched some things and felt like I needed to reset. When I woke up, everything took off. Is it true that the things I look down upon are actually good things?

1. $BTC has been fluctuating; after touching 94000, it began to pull back. In the early morning, it dipped near 90800 and has now returned to 92000. It's Friday again; is something happening?

2. $ETH seems to be stronger than Bitcoin. Yesterday, Bitcoin pulled back first, while Ethereum maintained its high position for a while, but eventually couldn't hold on and followed suit. It continues to be of high concern;

3. $SOL is beginning to see an increasing amount of "wealth effect" on the chain. Although it is relatively localized and the market caps are quite low, everything is developing in a positive direction;

Mastering Common Terms in the Cryptocurrency World (Part 1)

01 Opening a Position / Closing a Position
Opening a Position → Officially placing an order to enter (start of trading)
Closing a Position → Selling everything to exit, realizing profits or losses (end of trading)

02 Bullish / Bearish
Bullish → Anticipating a rise, buying first and selling to profit from the increase
Bearish → Anticipating a decline, selling first and buying to profit from the decrease

03 Going Long / Going Short
Going Long → Buying to profit from a rise (buy low, sell high)
Going Short → Selling to profit from a fall (sell high, buy low)

04 Leverage / Liquidation
Leverage → Borrowing money to amplify profits, which also amplifies losses
Liquidation → Losing all margin, resulting in forced closure by the system

05 Spot / Contract
Spot → Actual buying and selling, able to withdraw cryptocurrency
Contract → Betting on price movements, using a small amount of capital to control a large position

06 Locking Position / Unlocking
Locking Position → Cryptocurrency is locked, temporarily unable to move
Unlocking → Automatically released upon expiration, available for trading

07 Transaction Fee / Slippage
Transaction Fee → Fees paid to the platform for each transaction
Slippage → You want to buy for 100, but the transaction occurs at 109, the price difference

08 Pumping / Dumping
Pumping → Large players aggressively raising prices to attract buyers
Dumping → Large players aggressively lowering prices to force sellers

09 Establishing a Position / Adding to a Position / Reducing a Position
Establishing a Position → First purchase to create a position
Adding to a Position → Confidently buying more
Reducing a Position → Taking profits for safety, selling part

10 Take Profit / Stop Loss
Take Profit → Automatically selling when reaching the target profit
Stop Loss → Automatically cutting losses when reaching the pain point

BTC has entered a bearish market phase, with upward rebounds being opportunities for escaping and holding short positions at high levels.
Currently, from the daily chart perspective, BTC's axis shows a golden cross, and MACD is trending upward, indicating a demand for a rebound. However, it still faces pressure from the lifeline and trendline, and has not yet broken through with significant volume. Personally, I believe it will first pull back before breaking through; it's advisable to consider going long on the pullback. If it breaks 94500, it could reach around 98000.
At the 4-hour level, the upward momentum is weakening, MACD has a death cross, and there is a demand for a short-term pullback. I recommend shorting at 93500, adding to positions at 94500, with a stop-loss at 95500 and a target near 90000.
On the daily chart, the candlestick shows a bullish engulfing pattern, with funds entering to support the price. The MACD golden cross indicates further demand for a rebound. However, on a larger time frame, the trend is still downward. If it rebounds to the key resistance level of 98000, it may be worth considering a short position, while a pullback near 85000 could present a long opportunity.
Everything in the world has its cause and effect,
What you think and what you do, heaven actually keeps track of it all.

ETH/BTC Strong Comeback: The "Davis Double-Click" of Fundamentals and Policies is Happening

ETH has shown significantly stronger performance than BTC in the recent rebound, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate responding strongly after precisely retracing to the daily 200 moving average.

Currently, the positives can be unfolded from both the fundamental and policy aspects:

1️⃣
Positive from fundamentals: Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade

December 3, 2025 (activated)
Core: Introduction of PeerDAS (Data Sampling) and EIP-7918 (Minimum Burn)

In simple terms, L2s will need to pay from now on, and these fees will be used to burn ETH.

Subsequent key time nodes on December 17 and January 7's BPO activation will allow L2s' Blob capacity to increase, enabling the burning of more ETH.

2️⃣
Positive from policy: SEC is about to launch the "Innovation Exemption Policy"

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced on December 3 that a key "Innovation Exemption Policy" will be launched in the next 1-2 months (i.e., January 2026).

Policy details will be elaborated in a subsequent article, mainly focusing on two points for ETH:

1. This time it will clarify that ETH is a digital commodity and not a security.
2. There is a high probability that it will subsequently approve ETH ETFs that include staking features.

Subsequently, traditional banks and compliant custodians will be able to legally provide ETH-related financial services (lending, wealth management) for clients.

These two major positives will intersect in January 2026, and they do not belong to the favorable announcements at that time point, but rather require further development and fermentation. There may be a good market in Q1 of 2026.

BTC three-stage pullback rebound, the first two times were near the downtrend line, what about this time?
The first drop rebounded by 12%, taking 10 days.
The second drop rebounded by 10%, taking one week.
The third drop rebounded by 16%, currently taking 12 days.
At this stage, it is still around the previous fluctuation range near 93000, with a dense area of chips above around 96000. Currently, it is in a rate-cut rebound market, with a large rebound amplitude. Although there is an opportunity, caution is required when chasing high prices.
From the liquidation map, there is a demand for liquidation near 96000 above, while there is a demand for a pullback to 90000 and 88000 below. Generally, key levels will be repeatedly tested before breaking through, and key levels are also opportunity levels.

BTC 1H
93-93.8K key price range, resistance level momentum segmentation, oscillation channel rising, potential rapid channel model Long: 1️⃣ Breakout strong long, 2️⃣ Pullback near starting channel around 90-91K range Short: Break below channel (oscillation range) rebound short ​​​

Now altcoins only play with two types of coins, pure new coins and pure old coins, and very rarely will touch "next new coins".

First, what are next new coins?
"The first wave of airdrops + the chips given away by the exchange have been recovered, but investors have not started unlocking the coins yet" is what next new coins are.

Why do I hardly touch such coins? Because the coins at this stage belong to a controlled "vacuum period"; if the project party wants, they can let market makers control 99.99% of the chips. As long as the chips are controlled, they can manipulate the contracts however they want. They can pull up the price with good news, they can crash the price with good news, they can pull up 100% in 5 minutes and crash down 90% in 5 minutes; their spot price pull-up faces no resistance at all.

These coins are like someone looking at your hole cards while playing with you; how are you supposed to win?

BTC is currently still in a major cycle death cross on the monthly chart, in the stage of a short to medium-term double bottom rebound:
- The resistance is at the neckline around 94k and the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart around 96k; if it breaks through, we will directly look at the bat pattern. If it cannot break through, there is a chance for a three-test pullback before rebounding.
- Support is considered near the bottom of the ascending triangle around 87k.
- The bat pattern reaching 104k is not mandatory, but we currently have this pattern expectation marked out, which can also be used as a backup PRZ.

My views have not changed in recent days; any rebound is basically a trap.

There are several bases for this judgment:
1. Currently, we are in a bearish market trend; the rebound is for a better decline.
2. The adjustment time at the bottom is too short, lacking sufficient washing and turnover.
3. The main force did not buy in before the direct surge; I don't believe the main force does not care about the buying cost.
4. A rapid rise is not a real rise, and a rapid fall is not a real fall.
5. This morning, there was a large amount of liquidity around 936 and 940; this is the target of the market maker.

(Short-term market analysis, the effective time may only be a few hours to a few days, and it is not intended as investment advice.

Sort out the big picture ideas, $BTC

Currently, this wave of decline, whether in terms of time frame or decline pattern,
is similar to the rhythm of the early bear market in 2022,
a strong consensus at the end of the four-year cycle, a standard channel decline.

(I mentioned on October 13 that the timing was already at 2022.11.29)

In 2022, the decline lasted about 75 days, if this wave also lasts 75 days, the time would be around December 20.

If acceleration occurs at that time, it would be a very good trading point.
Betting on a daily moving average & major structural breakout retest,
likely retracing to around ema100.

(Additionally, during this round of main upward wave, the one-sided decline from the high point to the lowest point also lasted about 75 days
🤣
)

----------
After the rebound, let's just watch and see,
PLAN A & B, whether the bull returns or continues to pour.
I tend to continue pouring,
but the time from now is still relatively long,
no one knows how it will go at that time.

The time frame for the rebound & subsequent fluctuations is not short,
based on 2022, it's at least two months, let's take it step by step.

----------
Several trading positions with relatively high certainty in the overall framework:
1. The rebound after the accelerated decline starting with 7,
2. The short position after a significant breakout of the large cycle upward framework.