交易员皓月
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交易员皓月
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和谐交易者/谐波波浪理论裸K分析/CFA金融分析师，公众号:皓月交易学，直播时间上午下午各一场，晚上20:30，币安注册拿返佣邀请码享策略👉HY2026👈返佣20%，你的点赞转发，是对我最大的支撑。
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Bullish
#加密市场回调
This week's view:
btc is currently in a pullback, spot trading at the daily level can be done now. If it drops to around btc111000, the initial position must be taken. If it goes further down to 108400, that would be a really good position. Overall, still bullish, respect the market, do not overtrade in places where it shouldn't be done.
$BTC
#加密市场回调
This week's view:
btc is currently in a pullback, spot trading at the daily level can be done now. If it drops to around btc111000, the initial position must be taken. If it goes further down to 108400, that would be a really good position. Overall, still bullish, respect the market, do not overtrade in places where it shouldn't be done.
$BTC
This week's view:
btc is currently in a pullback, spot trading at the daily level can be done now. If it drops to around btc111000, the initial position must be taken. If it goes further down to 108400, that would be a really good position. Overall, still bullish, respect the market, do not overtrade in places where it shouldn't be done.
$BTC
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Bullish
How the script unfolds next can be seen from the greed and fear index, which is already at a low point. The upcoming scenarios are simply two: either a major cleanup similar to 312, wiping out the bears, or just moving upwards like this. I vote with my feet; the orders I am currently buying are all on the left side. I have already bought a portion. If given the opportunity like 312, I will directly jump in. If not, I will wait for the daily line to break above the 120-day line and then enter positions on the right side. The core of daring to buy is that there has never been a case of losing money while bottom fishing for Bitcoin during a rate-cutting cycle, especially since the bearish impact caused by Trump can no longer be greater. $BTC #美国加征关税
How the script unfolds next can be seen from the greed and fear index, which is already at a low point. The upcoming scenarios are simply two: either a major cleanup similar to 312, wiping out the bears, or just moving upwards like this. I vote with my feet; the orders I am currently buying are all on the left side. I have already bought a portion. If given the opportunity like 312, I will directly jump in. If not, I will wait for the daily line to break above the 120-day line and then enter positions on the right side. The core of daring to buy is that there has never been a case of losing money while bottom fishing for Bitcoin during a rate-cutting cycle, especially since the bearish impact caused by Trump can no longer be greater. $BTC #美国加征关税
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Why did the US stocks crash?1. Employment data is 'scary good', rate cut expectations shattered: May's new job additions doubled, showcasing an exceptionally strong labor market. This means inflation is hard to bring down, and the Fed not only lacks a reason to cut rates but might even be forced to hike them. High rate expectations slammed growth tech stocks that rely on future cash flow.
2. US Treasury yields are skyrocketing: As soon as the data dropped, the 10-year Treasury yield shot up to around 4.53%, with the 30-year breaching 5%. With risk-free rates this high, overvalued tech stocks instantly lost their appeal.
3. Chip giant's conservative guidance sparks a sell-off: Broadcom's AI revenue surged by 140%, but due to next quarter's guidance falling short of Wall Street expectations and hinting at clients bringing in competitive suppliers, the stock plummeted over 12% after hours. This shows that being merely 'great' in AI chip stocks isn't enough; they need to be 'perfect' to hold their prices. This sentiment directly crashed the global semiconductor sector (KOSPI dropped 5.5% in a single day).
Why did the US stocks crash?
1. Employment data is 'scary good', rate cut expectations shattered: May's new job additions doubled, showcasing an exceptionally strong labor market. This means inflation is hard to bring down, and the Fed not only lacks a reason to cut rates but might even be forced to hike them. High rate expectations slammed growth tech stocks that rely on future cash flow.
2. US Treasury yields are skyrocketing: As soon as the data dropped, the 10-year Treasury yield shot up to around 4.53%, with the 30-year breaching 5%. With risk-free rates this high, overvalued tech stocks instantly lost their appeal.
3. Chip giant's conservative guidance sparks a sell-off: Broadcom's AI revenue surged by 140%, but due to next quarter's guidance falling short of Wall Street expectations and hinting at clients bringing in competitive suppliers, the stock plummeted over 12% after hours. This shows that being merely 'great' in AI chip stocks isn't enough; they need to be 'perfect' to hold their prices. This sentiment directly crashed the global semiconductor sector (KOSPI dropped 5.5% in a single day).
2. US Treasury yields are skyrocketing: As soon as the data dropped, the 10-year Treasury yield shot up to around 4.53%, with the 30-year breaching 5%. With risk-free rates this high, overvalued tech stocks instantly lost their appeal.
3. Chip giant's conservative guidance sparks a sell-off: Broadcom's AI revenue surged by 140%, but due to next quarter's guidance falling short of Wall Street expectations and hinting at clients bringing in competitive suppliers, the stock plummeted over 12% after hours. This shows that being merely 'great' in AI chip stocks isn't enough; they need to be 'perfect' to hold their prices. This sentiment directly crashed the global semiconductor sector (KOSPI dropped 5.5% in a single day).
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It should be bearish now; at least we shouldn't go all in on longs.
Expectations for Wednesday were already low. Even if a temporary agreement is signed and there's an explanation, what does it matter?
Iran's negotiation is priced in. It will be realized immediately.
Tech stocks' earnings reports are priced in. It will be realized immediately.
What else is left? What are we expecting?
Are we expecting Powell to taper? Hanging you on a mountain?
This week’s Powell Senate hearing, just watch how he hawks and then how he does the T. The script of 'T killing without compensation' is coming!
It should be bearish now; at least we shouldn't go all in on longs.
Expectations for Wednesday were already low. Even if a temporary agreement is signed and there's an explanation, what does it matter?
Iran's negotiation is priced in. It will be realized immediately.
Tech stocks' earnings reports are priced in. It will be realized immediately.
What else is left? What are we expecting?
Are we expecting Powell to taper? Hanging you on a mountain?
This week’s Powell Senate hearing, just watch how he hawks and then how he does the T. The script of 'T killing without compensation' is coming!
Expectations for Wednesday were already low. Even if a temporary agreement is signed and there's an explanation, what does it matter?
Iran's negotiation is priced in. It will be realized immediately.
Tech stocks' earnings reports are priced in. It will be realized immediately.
What else is left? What are we expecting?
Are we expecting Powell to taper? Hanging you on a mountain?
This week’s Powell Senate hearing, just watch how he hawks and then how he does the T. The script of 'T killing without compensation' is coming!
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Recently, this fluctuation has indeed been a bit abstract. It can't just give me a direct surge, nor can it give me a waterfall; it has been holding back something big, and Insider Brother isn't being helpful.
Iran and the United States have started negotiations amid uncertainty.
An Iranian delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Friday to participate in high-level talks with the United States, aimed at transforming the fragile ceasefire into a lasting agreement.
Iran is expected to send senior officials, while the U.S. delegation includes Vice President Jared Vance and senior envoys.
The uncertainty remains high: Iran has yet to officially confirm participation in the negotiations, fighting continues in Lebanon, and major disagreements still exist—especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Negotiations are underway, but breakthroughs are far from guaranteed.
$BTC #霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭
Recently, this fluctuation has indeed been a bit abstract. It can't just give me a direct surge, nor can it give me a waterfall; it has been holding back something big, and Insider Brother isn't being helpful.
Iran and the United States have started negotiations amid uncertainty.
An Iranian delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Friday to participate in high-level talks with the United States, aimed at transforming the fragile ceasefire into a lasting agreement.
Iran is expected to send senior officials, while the U.S. delegation includes Vice President Jared Vance and senior envoys.
The uncertainty remains high: Iran has yet to officially confirm participation in the negotiations, fighting continues in Lebanon, and major disagreements still exist—especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Negotiations are underway, but breakthroughs are far from guaranteed.
$BTC #霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭
Iran and the United States have started negotiations amid uncertainty.
An Iranian delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Friday to participate in high-level talks with the United States, aimed at transforming the fragile ceasefire into a lasting agreement.
Iran is expected to send senior officials, while the U.S. delegation includes Vice President Jared Vance and senior envoys.
The uncertainty remains high: Iran has yet to officially confirm participation in the negotiations, fighting continues in Lebanon, and major disagreements still exist—especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Negotiations are underway, but breakthroughs are far from guaranteed.
$BTC #霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: In light of Lebanon's repeated and ongoing calls for direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed the cabinet yesterday to initiate direct talks with Lebanon as soon as possible. The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and regulating the peaceful relationship between Israel and Lebanon. Israel appreciates the Lebanese Prime Minister's call today for the demilitarization of Beirut.
Crude oil and btc are a pair of inverse indicators, they should just embrace each other quickly... #霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭 $BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: In light of Lebanon's repeated and ongoing calls for direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed the cabinet yesterday to initiate direct talks with Lebanon as soon as possible. The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and regulating the peaceful relationship between Israel and Lebanon. Israel appreciates the Lebanese Prime Minister's call today for the demilitarization of Beirut.
Crude oil and btc are a pair of inverse indicators, they should just embrace each other quickly... #霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭 $BTC
Crude oil and btc are a pair of inverse indicators, they should just embrace each other quickly... #霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭 $BTC
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Actually, I really want to live the life of a trader: getting up, building positions, tweeting, closing positions. Is there a more comfortable trader's life than this?
However, it's normal for price fluctuations to be large this week, as this Friday is the options expiration date. This date is for quarterly options expiration, which happens 4 days a year, also known as the quadruple witching day, so the volatility will be significant. Chuanzi, do you think I'm doing a good job of covering your lies?
#Trump considers ending the Iran conflict
Actually, I really want to live the life of a trader: getting up, building positions, tweeting, closing positions. Is there a more comfortable trader's life than this?
However, it's normal for price fluctuations to be large this week, as this Friday is the options expiration date. This date is for quarterly options expiration, which happens 4 days a year, also known as the quadruple witching day, so the volatility will be significant. Chuanzi, do you think I'm doing a good job of covering your lies?
#Trump considers ending the Iran conflict
However, it's normal for price fluctuations to be large this week, as this Friday is the options expiration date. This date is for quarterly options expiration, which happens 4 days a year, also known as the quadruple witching day, so the volatility will be significant. Chuanzi, do you think I'm doing a good job of covering your lies?
#Trump considers ending the Iran conflict
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The volatility has increased, hold steady and get ready, it's time to go wild
The volatility has increased, hold steady and get ready, it's time to go wild
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Bearish
The expected interest rate cut is just once. It is said that oil prices will rise, which will negatively affect all risk assets. The manipulation here is truly beastly.
In February, the U.S. PPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high since February of last year, with an expected growth of 2.9%; the February PPI increased by 0.7% month-on-month, the largest increase since July 2025, with an expected growth of 0.3%.
$BTC #比特币突破7.5万美元
The expected interest rate cut is just once. It is said that oil prices will rise, which will negatively affect all risk assets. The manipulation here is truly beastly.
In February, the U.S. PPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high since February of last year, with an expected growth of 2.9%; the February PPI increased by 0.7% month-on-month, the largest increase since July 2025, with an expected growth of 0.3%.
$BTC #比特币突破7.5万美元
In February, the U.S. PPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high since February of last year, with an expected growth of 2.9%; the February PPI increased by 0.7% month-on-month, the largest increase since July 2025, with an expected growth of 0.3%.
$BTC #比特币突破7.5万美元
交易员皓月
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BearishThe recent surge in BTC is indeed a bit outrageous; the third layer of asset revaluation in US stocks, a correction in the crypto market is only reasonable.
#比特币升回7万 #特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声
In a short time, this is quite similar to the previous US government shutdown.
$BTC
#比特币升回7万 #特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声
In a short time, this is quite similar to the previous US government shutdown.
$BTC
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Bearish
The recent surge in BTC is indeed a bit outrageous; the third layer of asset revaluation in US stocks, a correction in the crypto market is only reasonable.
#比特币升回7万 #特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声
In a short time, this is quite similar to the previous US government shutdown.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
The recent surge in BTC is indeed a bit outrageous; the third layer of asset revaluation in US stocks, a correction in the crypto market is only reasonable.
#比特币升回7万 #特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声
In a short time, this is quite similar to the previous US government shutdown.
$BTC
#比特币升回7万 #特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声
In a short time, this is quite similar to the previous US government shutdown.
$BTC
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The big one is coming, looking forward to BTC dropping below 60k, the deep pit emerging, and then entering the second phase of the bear market. The dog farm is really bad. To accumulate contract volume, they don't directly crash it; instead, they have to push it up before crashing it. Forget it, who told us we just live in this secular world anyway #加密市场回调 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
The big one is coming, looking forward to BTC dropping below 60k, the deep pit emerging, and then entering the second phase of the bear market. The dog farm is really bad. To accumulate contract volume, they don't directly crash it; instead, they have to push it up before crashing it. Forget it, who told us we just live in this secular world anyway #加密市场回调 $BTC
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After each conflict, the performance of major asset classes:
1. U.S. stocks often enter a period of fluctuation;
2. Gold may trend upwards;
3. Silver may fluctuate upwards;
4. Copper may first fluctuate and then rise;
5. Crude oil may rise first and then fall;
6. Don't ask me about crypto, U.S. stocks are already fluctuating, crypto is worse than U.S. stocks, so of course it's also fluctuating!!
#贵金原油价格飙升 #伊朗证实哈梅内伊已死
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
After each conflict, the performance of major asset classes:
1. U.S. stocks often enter a period of fluctuation;
2. Gold may trend upwards;
3. Silver may fluctuate upwards;
4. Copper may first fluctuate and then rise;
5. Crude oil may rise first and then fall;
6. Don't ask me about crypto, U.S. stocks are already fluctuating, crypto is worse than U.S. stocks, so of course it's also fluctuating!!
#贵金原油价格飙升 #伊朗证实哈梅内伊已死
$BTC
1. U.S. stocks often enter a period of fluctuation;
2. Gold may trend upwards;
3. Silver may fluctuate upwards;
4. Copper may first fluctuate and then rise;
5. Crude oil may rise first and then fall;
6. Don't ask me about crypto, U.S. stocks are already fluctuating, crypto is worse than U.S. stocks, so of course it's also fluctuating!!
#贵金原油价格飙升 #伊朗证实哈梅内伊已死
$BTC
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Don't be fooled by the noise in the market; currently, the volatility is not high, and there are no major expectations. It's just oscillating back and forth, with the main fluctuations in crude oil and gold and silver. Oh right, and the big A.
Don't be fooled by the noise in the market; currently, the volatility is not high, and there are no major expectations. It's just oscillating back and forth, with the main fluctuations in crude oil and gold and silver. Oh right, and the big A.
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What's going on? The Iranian issue was resolved in just one day? I'm really amazed. Next, the volatility has decreased again, and it's another boring sideways market #伊朗证实哈梅内伊已死 .
What's going on? The Iranian issue was resolved in just one day? I'm really amazed. Next, the volatility has decreased again, and it's another boring sideways market #伊朗证实哈梅内伊已死 .
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Bearish
Not Venezuela, not Venezuela, not Venezuela, important things are said three times, I am bearish 📉
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Not Venezuela, not Venezuela, not Venezuela, important things are said three times, I am bearish 📉
$BTC
$BTC
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Now I'm asking you if you're awesome, yesterday it was said that there might not be an interest rate hike, and then a door was drawn, today after the interest rate hike was confirmed it was reversed and boosted, don't ask why, just ask for the interpretation which is dovish interest rate hike $BTC #加密市场观察 to be honest this round of crypto assets is too weak, the decline has become the reason for the decline.
Now I'm asking you if you're awesome, yesterday it was said that there might not be an interest rate hike, and then a door was drawn, today after the interest rate hike was confirmed it was reversed and boosted, don't ask why, just ask for the interpretation which is dovish interest rate hike $BTC #加密市场观察 to be honest this round of crypto assets is too weak, the decline has become the reason for the decline.
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Damn, are they saying no rate hike again?
Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan and member of the government panel Masaru Yokitake: Given the neutral interest rate level, the Bank of Japan should avoid raising interest rates too early and excessively adjusting monetary support measures #加密市场观察
Damn, are they saying no rate hike again?
Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan and member of the government panel Masaru Yokitake: Given the neutral interest rate level, the Bank of Japan should avoid raising interest rates too early and excessively adjusting monetary support measures #加密市场观察
Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan and member of the government panel Masaru Yokitake: Given the neutral interest rate level, the Bank of Japan should avoid raising interest rates too early and excessively adjusting monetary support measures #加密市场观察
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Interest rates are about to rise again, and compared to that news from home, this is the real sanction and negative news. Currently, the significant performance of global assets shows that non-core chips (Google Chain, light assets) are all plummeting. Bitcoin seems to be the same at the moment; it's very difficult #加密市场反弹 $BTC
Interest rates are about to rise again, and compared to that news from home, this is the real sanction and negative news. Currently, the significant performance of global assets shows that non-core chips (Google Chain, light assets) are all plummeting. Bitcoin seems to be the same at the moment; it's very difficult #加密市场反弹 $BTC
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Goldman Sachs' latest forecast: Non-farm employment may decrease by 50,000 in October - the worst performance since December 2020. There is a 20%-25% probability that the unemployment rate will rise by 0.5 percentage points in the next six months (once the unemployment rate rises by 0.5% for two consecutive months, a recession is almost inevitable).
Trading for a recession has already begun, so this month dominated by insiders is truly brutal.
Goldman Sachs' latest forecast: Non-farm employment may decrease by 50,000 in October - the worst performance since December 2020. There is a 20%-25% probability that the unemployment rate will rise by 0.5 percentage points in the next six months (once the unemployment rate rises by 0.5% for two consecutive months, a recession is almost inevitable).
Trading for a recession has already begun, so this month dominated by insiders is truly brutal.
Trading for a recession has already begun, so this month dominated by insiders is truly brutal.
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Trending Topics
XRPLedgerPatchesXRPCreationBug
8,817 views
200 Discussing
#xrpledgerpatchesxrpcreationbug
🚨 XRP Ledger just patched an 11-year-old bug that could have created XRP out of thin air 🚨
Here’s what happened:
🔹 A flaw in the XRPL payment engine (an integer overflow) dates back to about 2015
🔹 An attacker could have used hundreds of crafted offers plus a single payment to mint spendable XRP. That would break the hard cap of 100 billion XRP
🔹 Researchers reported it through the bug bounty on Sept 22, and the fix shipped in xrpld 3.4.1 on Sept 25
🔹 RippleX reproduced the attack and confirmed the minted XRP could be spent. They found no evidence it was ever exploited
🔹 The public disclosure came on Oct 9, after node operators had already been patched
📊 My take: Price barely moved (about $1.40, down ~5.5% on the week), because this was a hole that got closed, not a drain. A minting bug is the worst kind a blockchain can have, so patching it quietly before disclosure was the right call. Still, a bug that survived 11 years is a reminder to watch how these networks handle security.
⚠️ If you run an XRPL node, update to 3.4.1 or later. If you only hold XRP, watch for exchange notices about maintenance.
$XRP
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