加密老四

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I've noticed a lot of crypto KOLs aren't sharing projects anymore; some have even started switching to the US stock market. Others are diving into the mainstream traffic crypto scene, which seems to be fading. Even top exchanges are shifting their focus to stocks. It feels like many folks are getting lost in direction. I believe the future of crypto lies on-chain; the biggest application of blockchain has actually been MEME coins, and their enduring popularity proves that point. Moving forward, the traffic that can truly settle in the crypto space will lean more towards on-chain solutions. Find your niche, dig deep, and there will definitely be rewards.

After being in the game for so many years, I’m feeling a bit lost for the first time. To be honest, this market dip has definitely shaken my confidence.

Watching BTC drop from its highs, seeing ETH disappoint time and time again, and seeing the numbers in my account shrink is tough.

Sometimes I can’t help but wonder: is there still hope for this market? What’s the future going to look like?

Over the years, I've seen bull markets and survived bear markets. From the initial excitement to getting schooled by the market repeatedly.

I’ve slowly realized that the market's biggest skill isn’t just making you lose money. It’s about wearing down your patience and faith over a long period.

These days, there are plenty of folks online shouting about going to zero. If you think about it, they’re not entirely wrong. Any asset held long enough might eventually fade away, might end up at zero.

Companies can go under, eras can change. But I believe that at least in our lifetime, BTC is unlikely to see that day.

So rather than obsess over the outcome decades down the line, why not focus on the now? Since we've already been schooled hard by the market and have gone through the toughest times, waiting a few more years doesn’t seem like such a big deal.

Shifting from bull to bear is tough. Transitioning from bear to bull is equally challenging. Because before dawn truly breaks, many have already fallen in the dark.

The biggest lesson over these years has been learning to accept the outcome. Invest what you can afford to lose. If you profit, great; if you lose, own it.

Because every buy and sell is ultimately your choice. The market never owes anyone an answer. All we can do is make the best decision we can within our understanding. The rest, we leave to time.

After all, we’ve persevered through so many years. Who knows what the future holds? But the story isn’t over yet.

Over the last 15 years, the crypto population has seen exponential growth
2010: Almost 0 (<100 people)
2013: About 1 million (after Bitcoin's first price explosion)
2016: About 12.5 million
2017: About 42.5 million (ICO bull run blast-off)
2020: About 175 million
2021: About 350 million (DeFi/NFT craze)
2023: About 420 million
2024: About 562 million
2025: About 741 million
2026 (forecast): About 850 million+

Become a millionaire by mimicking their habits:

1. Read a ton

2. Rise early

3. Pay yourself first

4. Live within your means

5. Harness the power of compounding

6. Track your spending, income, and investments

This year's college entrance exam is finally over.
But nowadays, the weight of the exam has significantly diminished.
With over ten million graduates every year, there are just not enough white-collar positions available, and a basic degree just doesn't cut it anymore. Besides the elite schools, most diplomas are pretty much interchangeable; the idea that a single exam can change your life is a thing of the past.

On top of that, there are many pathways available; families with money and resources have countless ways to get ahead. For middle-class families and above, there are many methods to bypass the exam.

Really, the only ones who might still change their fate and class through the entrance exam are perhaps kids from rural areas or the lower strata of urban society, those with a knack for studying.

For most people, the exam scores have limited impact. Once you step into the real world, what truly determines how far you go is your overall abilities and family resources.

I've made up my mind. In the next bull and bear cycle, I'm going to focus on crypto-denominated trading, earning coins with coins. Once the correction is over, I’ll catch the first major wave, aiming to double my coin count. After the price doubles, I’ll sell half of my profits in spot. For the second major wave, I’ll close everything out, selling the remaining half of my profits plus half of my principal. Finally, I’ll hold onto the last half of my remaining spot without touching it.

Taking ETH as an example, I’ll buy 100 ETH in spot below 1500, then open an 18x crypto-denominated long position with 18.5 ETH, targeting 3000. The profit from this is 166 ETH. At that point, I’ll take profits and close half, selling 83 ETH near the 3000 mark.

Once I’ve taken half of the ETH long at 3000, I’ll have 9 ETH left, targeting a profit at 4200 which is 107 ETH. After closing half of this 107 ETH along with my 3200 long, I’ll sell half of what’s left, keeping a total of 190 ETH, and then sell 95 ETH at the 4200 price. I’ll reallocate the remaining 95 ETH to aim for a sell at 4800-5000.

This long-term strategy of bottom-fishing in spot and using crypto-denominated longs throughout a full bull and bear cycle is how you make serious profits. Of course, after the first doubling, if there’s a pullback of 300-500 points, I can add to my position again, which allows for compounding; but I won’t go into that right now.

Big things are happening in the blockchain space. The Humanity project suffered a private key leak, leading to a wallet hack, causing the #H token to crash hard, with a daily drop of up to 90%, wiping out its market cap from $2 billion to just over $30 million in one go. To put it bluntly, this is likely a case of the project team dumping their bags to manipulate the market, while conveniently spinning a 'leak' story to harvest the retail traders.

The blockchain went rogue, Humanity's got wrecked due to a private key leak, and their wallet address was drained, causing the #H token to tank—today it plummeted by 90%, from a $2 billion market cap down to a little over $30 million. It looks like the project team just dumped their bags and created an excuse to chop their own retail investors.

Bear Market Status

Work is like a pump-and-dump
When you can't handle it anymore, someone else steps in

Fate is like a liquidation
When you can't break free, you gotta learn to enjoy the ride

Life is like HODLing
You gotta rely on your own hands for everything

It's no surprise that this altcoin is on the chopping block!

Just look at how ugly the whales are eating these charts, H! This is a textbook H pattern! A drop of over 90% is something the hackers can take the blame for!

SAHARA also experienced a flash crash! Luckily, when it was up about ten points yesterday, it raised some red flags about risk, allowing us to perfectly ride the wave and avoid the nosedive!

At this rate, is there any hope left for the crypto space? With US stocks frequently launching new projects and these altcoins performing like this, what future do we have to stand on?

Yesterday I took a long position around 63000
made over 600 points
then flipped and shorted again
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still fluctuating with the US stock market
but the bulls are still weak
Yesterday, the US stocks had a violent rebound
Bitcoin didn’t even touch 64500
Ethereum hit around 1720
Today, after closing the candles, the moving average indicators for Bitcoin and Ethereum are pressing down again
After the rebound in the US stocks, a pullback has occurred
The time left for the bulls is running out
Trump is now calling for US stocks
up to no good, trying to get everyone to buy at high prices
For now, it’s mainly short positions.

Just realized that the downtrend structure since the recent high looks a lot like the uptrend structure from early 2023's bull market!

The green replicated candlesticks are basically the inverted structure from 2023...

If we ride this symmetrical structure, we can expect about a month of sideways consolidation and some retracement before heading into a deep bear...

Since this is just for fun, it shouldn't be taken as a decision-making reference.

No matter how panicked others are or how volatile the market gets, as long as you keep your cool and maintain a steady mindset, you're good. Risks and opportunities always coexist. Just like during the spring of 2020 when the pandemic hit, many people freaked out and rushed to leave their jobs and go back home, while I saw industries start to stall and reshuffle. This was the best chance to swim against the tide for individuals, because when others' incomes started to plummet, I was able to maintain and even boost mine, allowing me to get ahead of the pack. So at that time, I was determined; there was no way I was going to give up my job and wait for things to happen. I put my head down and worked hard, and I stuck it out until 2022, when after the Spring Festival my performance skyrocketed, and my income exceeded $1.2 million that year. Of course, my company was really supportive; during those two years of the pandemic, not only did they not cut salaries, but they even raised my monthly pay by 35%. 2022 was my highest income year, and I just so happened to catch the big bear market in the US stock market and crypto market. I started preparing for 2024-2025 early in 2022, and by June 2022, I confidently told my colleagues that the next bull market would definitely break $100K, so this year I needed to start stacking up on U to buy the dip. So, at the right time with ample funds, it’s hard not to capitalize.

But after all these years in the crypto world, if you're still that panicked, then all the experiences were for nothing. No matter the storms or sunshine, they are all blessings from above. Keep moving forward, and ahead lies a bright sky!

In just one night, tens of thousands of billions evaporated

Gold -4%, US stocks -3%, Bitcoin -10%

This isn't a coincidence, everyone knows what's up

The tide is about to shift
But no one wants you to catch on...

They just want to keep you
HODLing at the top for the new year...

Beautiful Bubble
A Moment of Fireworks
On Thursday night, while US stocks dropped, Bitcoin and Ethereum didn't follow suit.
I briefly thought they were going to completely decouple from Bitcoin.
It's been a long downtrend.
Ugh.
Turns out they were just waiting to unleash something big.
Yesterday, US stocks got hit hard,
And Bitcoin and Ethereum followed with an unlimited drop.
From the chart,
Bitcoin approached the white trend line,
While Ethereum shot up to the previous breakout trend line.
If it drops more, it’ll fall back into the major downtrend zone,
Which it took a while to break out of.
Sigh.
Looking at the US market,
It's expected to retrace back to the lower trend line,
Still a bit of distance to cover.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Are expected to pull back with US stocks next week.
Currently, Bitcoin support is around 58000, but it feels like it won't hold.
It seems it will also need to test the previous downtrend line.
Ethereum might drop back inside the trend line, it’s been a classic move.
Beautiful Bubble
A Moment of Fireworks.

Stocks are crashing.
Gold is tumbling.
Silver is tanking.
Cryptos are plummeting.
Bonds are nosediving.
Even oil is in freefall.

If everything's crashing, where the hell is the money going?

In the last round, BTC dropped from 60k to 50k and then to 40k, and nobody was buying the dip.

This time, you're listening to some exchange CEO predicting a bottom at 50k. I can guarantee that when we hit 50k, you won't even dare to buy the dip, alright? They have infinite capital flow; are you going to leverage up to buy the dip?

Haters, don't come here to comment. Just stick to predicting with your idol.

ETH has been chopped by over 50% from its all-time high, and the entire altcoin market is in despair.

BTC, however, is still holding strong above 60k, like the last fortress.

But with capital continuously flowing out, ETF net outflows, and macro tightening not easing up, how much longer can BTC hold the line?

Is "digital gold" holding the fort, or is it going to drop?

BTC Outlook Update:

The big coin has taken a dip this round, with the upper region showing a classic fake breakout structure. I've mentioned the conditions for this structure multiple times in previous live streams, along with its price action! Once we broke below the horizontal support, the uptrend came to an end, leading to a pullback or a new downtrend (as I've pointed out in my daily updates)!

Currently, we're down nearly 21500, hitting support near the lows of the previous downtrend, resulting in some choppy consolidation. As it stands, this isn't a particularly strong consolidation, indicating that the market is still quite risky!

Keep an eye on the key resistance and support reactions! For resistance, watch 66415 in the short term, while for support, keep an eye on the low at 61344!