M Mushtaque

【New York Fed's Latest Survey: Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Remain "Stubbornly" at 3%, Market Rate Cut Expectations May Need to Cool】

The latest consumer expectations survey released by the New York Fed shows that respondents' median annual inflation expectations for the next 3 and 5 years remain at 3%, unchanged from last month. This data indicates that although recent month-on-month inflation has moderated, the public's expectations for medium-term inflation have not cooled in tandem, reflecting the "stubborn stickiness" of inflation expectations.

💡 Why is this data so crucial?

The New York Fed's consumer inflation expectations survey is one of the key long-term inflation "anchoring" indicators closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. When 3-year and 5-year inflation expectations stabilize at a high level of 3%, it indicates that the public and businesses do not expect future price increases to return to the 2% policy target range, which is likely to impact wage setting, corporate pricing behaviors, and consequently exert persistent pressure on actual inflation.

📈 What does this mean for Federal Reserve policy?

This data may provide a basis for the "hawkish" faction within the Federal Reserve, supporting their stance of "not rushing to cut rates, needing more patience." If consumer inflation expectations are difficult to substantively reduce, the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a longer period to thoroughly reshape inflation expectations. The market's expectations for "multiple rate cuts in 2025" may face challenges.

⚠️ Market Impact:

For risk assets, a prolonged high interest rate environment will suppress valuations, especially for growth assets that lack stable cash flows.

For the dollar, a delay in rate cut expectations may provide support for the exchange rate.

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