奔驰董大姐

Today I have things to do outside, I took a glance at my phone, and there is no change, still need to wait. Stick to principles, patiently wait for that high probability winning opportunity.

All energy is focused on the regulation of China's examination-oriented education, which is not good. Most children who come out this way are like those on an assembly line. Those who achieve great results are inherently more advantaged and unique; education is secondary, and such individuals are a very small number of exceptionally talented people. Education going to the other extreme is also not good. In China, or for those who do not plan to leave China in the future, blindly following the American happy education model is also not good, as it is difficult to survive in the general environment of China. Understanding some shortcomings of our education and absorbing some advantages of American education might be better; at least it would be better than the examination-oriented assembly line thought education that focuses all energy on tests. We are not giving opinions to the education department; this requires parents to put in their own effort. Usually, learn more about our education and American education, put in effort in daily life, and when encountering social events, social issues, school issues, and various problems, let children think for themselves, see how they think, parents need to be prepared, and cannot impose their own thoughts on children. They should provide multi-faceted analysis, and the stance must be solid, allowing children to see different perspectives. For example, regarding the recent hot topic of the Ming Dynasty, if one is just a follower who praises the Ming Dynasty as perfect and flawless, filled with hatred, how can they provide children with a different perspective and understanding? At least, you need to know that if the Ming Dynasty was really so amazing and perfect, why did it fall? Why did the common people rebel against it? Is the Qing Dynasty completely worthless? At least it made us recognize the importance of culture and the disadvantages of being backward and ignorant. Do not be arrogant and self-righteous, and so on. Have you read Yan Fu's Theory of Evolution? I estimate that not many have. Regardless, we cannot impose hatred education on children. Regarding children’s choices and thoughts, is there respect? Do children have autonomy? Is family discussion democratic and free? These issues cannot rely on schools; parents must put in the effort themselves. The image below is a comment seen online. What good education can there be for children with such parents? Children become tools for their parents.

Some schools conduct so-called military management on children, suppressive management. For example, collective recitation with books held up to the sky, collective shouting during reading, collective intense English practice, synchronized running in limited space, running while eating, and so on. I have never practiced such educational methods, nor do I find them effective.
During my studying years, when on break, I would engage in self-study, which means using the vacation time when others are indulging in play to read more, utilizing long periods for a protracted battle, accumulating quantitative changes to qualitative changes over time, rather than a short-term reckless decisive battle, not suppressive studying.
In high school, at least 90% of the students in my class did not take naps, doing exercises in class, while I was the only one in the dormitory who regularly took naps. There were several times when I even took leave to go home a week before a mock exam, and after going home, I studied and did exercises myself, which was very peaceful and efficient, and I did well in the exams, as I actually did not adapt well to that kind of high-intensity fatigue studying.
In my second year of high school, the Chinese teacher asked me to recite some article, and I couldn't memorize it. I said I could understand the meaning of the article, why must I memorize it? The teacher made me stand, and I was very happy to stand outside. During the college entrance examination period, I even went to play basketball and got scolded by the homeroom teacher. I have my own understanding and rhythm in doing things, and I would not blindly follow the teacher. In high school, almost all my classmates were obsessed with studying and doing exercises, while I chose not to do many papers because I felt it unnecessary to repeat useless tasks. I spent my extra time playing basketball, taking naps, and reading business investment books and biographies, especially in my second and third years of high school, where I read quite a few business investment books. I should be the only one in my class who thought about how to make money in high school, while others thought I was daydreaming and not focused. When it came to stocks, they would laugh mockingly, using clichés they heard somewhere, saying that stock trading might lead to jumping off buildings, closely associating stock trading with jumping off buildings, even treating it as a terrifying thing. I do not pursue being first or second; being ranked higher is enough.
A couple of influential books I read in high school were by Li Ka-Shing, Bao Yugang, and Buffett. Later on, when I went to college, I felt that my resources, personality, etc., might not be suitable for doing business because I dislike the false pretenses of social interactions. I found Buffett's ideas great and felt that it was very free, so I started trading stocks in college and read a lot of Buffett's work. After graduating, I went to a foreign enterprise, then later quit to trade stocks professionally. In fact, all these choices were driven by an invisible force pushing me forward, which is the pursuit of initiative, the right to choose, and freedom. I have always kept the initiative to choose in my own hands, continuously doing what I recognize in my heart, or what makes me feel comfortable. While studying, I worked very hard, which refers to the persistence of long periods. Now, professional investment is also this kind of character; what I want is long-term gains, not short-term wins.
I believe that such collective crazy behavior and studying do not easily lead to independent thoughts, just like mass production of chickens on an assembly line. I belong to the wild mountain chicken type, preferring to find food a hundred meters away rather than being confined and fed according to someone else's method. My thinking is individualistic, but I have never done rebellious or outrageous things. I have always had independent thoughts from childhood to adulthood, and this kind of thinking is an anomaly in places like Shandong where Confucian thought is heavy, akin to a sorghum rising out of a cornfield; this is inherent. My relatives and early school friends are all in the north and Beijing, yet I chose Guangzhou, then Shanghai, chose a foreign enterprise, and then chose professional stock trading. I never thought about relying on anyone since childhood, so I always follow my heart in making any choices. I personally dislike being suppressed and equally dislike suppressing others. Investment is truly a destined profession for me. However, that kind of collectivist indoctrination is not suitable for investment because the thinking is too rigid and fixed.

I saw a question like this online, where a group of people were calculating. If this is not a joke, then such questions are misleading and harmful to students; teachers who create such questions must have some issues in their thinking. If the premises and conditions are not rigorous, it will only fix children's thinking, make them doubt themselves, and become less confident. Previously, I received a few similar messages from friends, which were questions for their children, logic problems they paid for outside, looking for patterns or logic. I looked at those questions and felt the same way—they mislead students. Some extracurricular classes are purely difficult for the sake of being difficult, to make themselves seem needed. The questions posed in those logic classes are not useful for logical thinking and can undermine children's confidence. If I were a parent, I would definitely not enroll my child in such classes; of course, I wouldn’t tell my friends that this is useless. The purpose of education is to practice and apply knowledge. A standard answer cannot have counterexamples; if even one counterexample appears, your standard answer is an insult to the child's intelligence. Children living in villas likely don’t understand the structure of stairs; some children may have never walked up stairs, and different communities have different stair structures. In some communities, the first floor is the height of the second floor, which means it starts one level higher. In the same building, the first floor and the floors above three are also different; some above the third floor might be duplexes, etc. If children encounter differences in practice, why must you force them to provide a standard answer? This is a foolish question. Parents can only improve themselves to provide their children with different perspectives when they encounter problems. Just like this question, it only represents one type of stair structure and does not represent all. Furthermore, in reality, grandpa's speed going up the stairs must be getting slower; any teacher who disagrees should find a few grandpas to practice measuring speed.

The market continues to fluctuate, and currently, the overall market remains in a weak state, lacking cohesion and vitality. Overall, it still does not have the conditions for action, continuing to rest and wait, remaining as still as a mountain. Recognize reality, recognize yourself. How much has the profit of the technology sector increased? How much have the core technologies and patents in the technology sector increased? How much has the market value of the technology sector increased? By the end of September, the managers of the A-share market said that the market value proportion of the technology sector exceeded 1/4, with a substantial amount of technology involved. In my view, this is not a good phenomenon; the deliberate pursuit of market value proportion does not represent a significant improvement in core technology, but rather an increase in capital speculation. The wealth of a small group has increased, but how many people's wealth will be plundered? Let's just wait and see; within 2 years, the vast majority of technology stocks will surely collapse frighteningly. I am not bearish on technology; I respect the law of value. I also hope that China's technology sector continues to grow stronger. Absurd capital speculation will certainly have a negative impact on technological development.

When the great roc rises with the wind,
It soars straight up to ninety thousand miles.
If the wind were to cease and come down,
It could still stir the waters of the vast sea.
People see me as always having a different tune,
And they all laugh coldly at my grand words.
Even the father of Xu can still fear the younger generation,
A man should not underestimate the young.

A thousand miles of waves roll in,
Snowflakes fly towards the fishing platform.
People praise the broad formation,
Iron horses calmly return after defeating the enemy.

Ordinary people need to understand a basic truth: the idea of getting rich easily, like winning a pie from the sky, is unlikely to happen. In fact, many ordinary people understand this, but when faced with the temptation of profit, they can't resist. It's not just about financial management; the stock market is the same. How can you expect to make money just by trading casually? There have been too many financial products that have gone bust in recent years, such as P2P lending, trusts, financial management companies, and even some bank financial products, private equity investments, foreign banks' financial products, and so on. Except for the four major state-owned banks, which have the lowest deposit risk rate, almost close to zero, other deposits, financial management, and investments carry high risks. If you have the ability to invest, then invest; if not, just save in the bank. The reverse repurchase agreement of government bonds is linked to the central bank and is similar to bank deposits, but it has better liquidity, with interest earned on the same day and the ability to buy stocks the next day. In fact, all of this is about recognizing reality and understanding one's own knowledge; however, when faced with choices, people can only see the benefits and not the risks.

The market continues to fluctuate. Currently, the overall market is still in a weak state, lacking cohesion and vitality. Overall, the conditions for action are still not present, and it is better to continue resting and waiting, remaining as immobile as a mountain. Recognize reality, recognize yourself. U.S. tech stocks have entered a weak state; AI has been invested in for three years, and there has been basically no output, not even a decent commercial application, but the investment has been enormous. As time goes on, many companies will stop due to massive AI investments, and most AI companies will be eliminated in the AI race. After three years of AI investment, no substantial commercial applications have emerged, yet U.S. tech stocks have generally risen several times; high valuations certainly come with high risks. A-share AI technology is completely following the U.S. market; it is not on the same level as U.S. AI, and the hype around A-share AI technology is even greater than that of the U.S. Once it collapses, it will be very tragic; this is inevitable. We do not know when the avalanche will occur, but when AI technology collapses, it will certainly be very devastating, and the wealth of most people will be plundered. What are principles? When viewing these technology speculations, one should regard them as one viewed the high returns of P2P from back in the day; this is a right-or-wrong question, and if it cannot be done, then it cannot be done. Back then, many people tried to exploit P2P for high returns, depositing for a week to receive very high interest. In the beginning, they could receive interest, but eventually, most people's money could not be withdrawn, leading to significant losses from greed for small gains. Do not blame P2P for deception; if blame is to be made, it should be directed at one's own low awareness. Of course, many people deposited to help friends and relatives with their performance, but such help should not be given. If your awareness is sufficient and you know that there is a high probability that this money cannot be withdrawn, even if it is your own son seeking to boost performance, you might not lend him money. The fundamental reason is still greed. In the past, when someone I knew asked me to help boost their performance, I refused. Those engaging in reckless speculation in the stock market are just driven by greed. Do you see Buffett being greedy when facing U.S. tech stocks being speculated at dozens or hundreds of times in 1999? Principles are principles; what cannot be done must be resolutely avoided. Those who invested in P2P back in the day and those who engage in reckless speculation in the stock market without principles are the same; both are driven by their own greed. Adhering to principles is not easy, and upholding principles is also a part of awareness.

Furious and proud, at the railing, the drizzle has ceased. Raising my gaze, I let out a long howl towards the sky, filled with intense aspirations. Thirty years of fame are but dust, eight thousand miles of roads are clouds and moon. Do not wait idly until the youth turns gray, only to lament in vain.
The shame of Jingkang has not yet been avenged. When will the hatred of the minister be extinguished? Driving a long carriage, I will trample through the gaps of Helan Mountain. With lofty ambitions, I feast on the flesh of the Hu soldiers, and laugh as I drink the blood of the Xiongnu. I will start anew, reclaiming the old rivers and mountains, towards the heavenly gate.

A few days ago, I conducted a survey on income growth, and most people probably didn’t understand it. Today, let’s refine it further. Wage growth is anchored to GDP growth, which aligns over the long term. The definition of a country's development stage is based on per capita GDP.
We are still a developing country, while the United States is a highly developed country and the wealthiest developed nation in the world. Don’t always focus on the media talking about how poorly Americans live; they are indeed wealthy. If their citizens had no money to spend, how would their consumption remain strong? Without consumer support, how could American businesses be so powerful? If American businesses were not strong, the U.S. stock market could not have sustained such a long-term upward trend.
In 2024, the per capita GDP of the United States is $85,800, while in 2024, China’s per capita GDP is $13,400. The U.S. is 6.4 times that of China. The definition of per capita GDP for moderately developed countries is $20,000. Therefore, looking at GDP, we still have a distance to go before reaching developed country status. Additionally, our GDP composition differs from that of the U.S.; in the U.S., consumption plays a major role, whereas our industrial and infrastructure investment proportions are quite large. So, you need to be very clear about these internal factors and not just look at the surface of their stock market compared to ours.
Below is the relationship between income and GDP. If GDP has been growing for several consecutive years, then the income of the vast majority of people must also have grown. However, if GDP has grown, but income hasn’t kept pace with the rhythm of GDP, you should think about where the problem lies; as long as you’re not foolish, this answer doesn’t need to be spoken out loud.
If GDP has grown for several consecutive years, income must grow, and consumption must grow. Overall consumption will inevitably trend towards an upgrade; high-end consumption will definitely increase, dining will expand, and employment will rise. How do people improve their lives? Of course, it’s through income growth. Without an increase in income, how can consumption be improved? As income increases, people will definitely dine out more frequently, and the demand for goods will be a continual pursuit of higher quality. When earning $10,000 a month, one might buy apples at $5 a pound and drive a $100,000 car; when earning $20,000 a month, one might want to try apples at $15 a pound and aspire to drive a $200,000 car. This is inevitable. Now, looking at the consumption situation, high-end cigarettes, liquor, and tea have significantly declined, dining has decreased, high-end shoes, bags, cosmetics, and luxury cars are down, etc. Analyzing the decline of high-end goods can help deduce economic conditions, indicating that people’s incomes should be declining or growing slowly. If income is declining or growing slowly, what about GDP? GDP is indeed growing, and I believe in this data wholeheartedly, but where is the internal growth of GDP? This is the key. If the growth is in industrial investment or infrastructure investment, people cannot feel the temperature of the water. Industrial output increases, thus GDP increases, but this does not mean that goods can be sold. If goods cannot be sold, then people’s income cannot increase. Another factor is infrastructure; investment in hydropower stations increases GDP but does not mean that income will flow into your hands. Once these issues are clear, looking at the stock market will also become clear.
Why is the stock market not rising, but instead falling? If the core of GDP is growing, then people’s income is increasing, and their consumption must be upgrading, not downgrading. The overall stock market must be growing, and stocks like Tesla must be rising. This is the law of value. However, the current market phenomenon is quite the opposite, which raises the question: why are high-end member stores like Costco closing down? Why are discount stores being established? When the market struggles to make money, businessmen will engage in low-price competition and price wars. Some in the capital market will create Ponzi schemes to make money, like the Dutch tulip bubble, and some tech stocks are piled up in value in a similar way; there are always people who believe. People do not care whether tech companies can make money; they only look at whether there’s a dream and if prices can rise, while rational people adhere to the laws of value.
Why have I remained unmoved this year? Because the premise is incorrect; the large economic logic, the laws of value, and market phenomena are contrary to common sense. When the price of a garlic bulb matches that of half a pig, we cannot rule out the possibility of someone making money, but I will not violate the laws of value to buy garlic. Occasionally higher prices can be accepted, but prices that are absurdly high must be avoided. The Moores Threads are like garlic that has matched the price of half a pig. Things whose prices stray far from their value will eventually collapse, and the higher they climb, the harder they fall. When the price of Dutch tulips reached the point of buying a house, people had long forgotten that it was just a flower. When Japanese real estate prices soared to the point of buying all of America, people had long forgotten that it was just meant for living.

In half a month, 2025 will come to an end. I have been waiting like a mountain for a year, and this year I've only had the interest from the reverse repurchase of government bonds, which is like having saved money in the bank for a year. This year has been a great opportunity for cultivation, of course, this is said for friends who have principles, understand the principles of this monk, and share the same ideals. Investing is like the journey to the West; on the surface, one might look at the technology, and even the abilities of the white dragon horse are better than those of Tang Seng, but it is only at crucial moments that one realizes Tang Seng is truly the strongest. The end of the year also signifies that a new year is about to begin. If one does not study, cultivate, summarize, or sharpen oneself regularly, and lacks a systematic principle with unclear principles, one should think carefully about it recently; otherwise, when opportunities arise, it will be confusing, and one won’t know if it aligns with the principles. Even if in the future this monk shares some principled opportunities, it will only be understood by those who share the same ideals. Anyone online, please give a reply; those who are still here at the end of the year are not simple. I do not know when opportunities will arise, but they will come; this is considered preparation before the battle or a pre-battle ideological mobilization, so that one is not flustered when the day of battle suddenly comes.

The market continues to fluctuate. Currently, the overall market remains in a weak state, lacking cohesion and vitality. It still does not meet the conditions for action, so it is best to continue resting and waiting, remaining as still as a mountain. Recognize reality and understand yourself. Daily browsing data shows that from last year's peak to now, there has been a 70% decline. This data represents browsing activity, not active participation, so it includes people who only look but do not speak. In other words, from the peak to now, in the one-year waiting period, 70% of people stopped looking. Mastery is easy to obtain, but the path is difficult to comprehend. Why are most people obsessed with mastery? Because the road ahead is full of temptations, and human thinking tends to focus only on the present, neglecting the long term. It’s often advantageous to take immediate profits without regard for the future. Looking long-term requires a sense of purpose, which in turn requires going against human nature and making sacrifices. Sacrificing is too difficult for people. For example, after Liu Bang entered Xi'an City, he could still retreat and seal away treasures for Xiang Yu. This requires immense composure and self-control. Of course, Liu Bang was not completely unfazed; there’s that saying where Fan Kuai asks Liu Bang if he wants the world or to be a rich man. Liu Bang also had his moments of confusion; it’s hard not to be dazed when suddenly becoming wealthy. But when he was confused, he could quickly regain clarity and control himself, and that is a skill. Reading history may seem like just a story, making it hard to sense the difficulty, but real-life examples may be easier to understand. For instance, if your family has been farming for three generations or working as laborers, one day you occupy the home of a wealthy person, where even a single antique is worth over billions, with countless treasures and beautiful women, and you can still calmly let it go. Think about how difficult that would be. This is one of the key reasons why Liu Bang, a petty rogue from humble beginnings, could achieve greatness: his self-control and strategic vision were exceptional. Investing is also an endeavor that goes against human nature; sometimes doing nothing seems passive and inactive, but it can often be the better course of action. When the market is full of bull stocks and indices keep rising, it is very difficult to stick to principles and not be tempted by immediate profits. This kind of inaction appears more passive and foolish, yet this inaction is precisely the best form of action. Understanding this principle makes it easier to comprehend Buffett's inaction regarding tech stocks, and it also clarifies why that carefree individual lost 2 billion and jumped off a building during the bull market in 2015. This principle is also fundamental for long-term stable development.
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The heavy rain falls on the quiet swallow,
The white waves surge to the sky,
Fishing boats outside Qinhuangdao.
A vast ocean is nowhere to be seen,
Where should I go?
The past stretches over a thousand years,
Wei Wu wields his whip,
Eastward to the cliff stone, there are remnants of verses.
The bleak autumn wind is once again,
The world has changed.
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I don't know how many people have lost money in Zhejiang Capital. Many people lack financial knowledge and common sense; investment returns higher than bank deposits will certainly carry high risks, otherwise how would banks attract deposits? Of course, bank deposits also carry risks. There have been many cases of bank failures in the United States, but the risk of bank deposits is extremely low, especially with the four major banks. The four major banks are backed by government credit, state-owned assets are not, and local banks are also not. Those who lose money in investments are often losing due to a lack of understanding, and the same goes for stock trading. It's essential to understand what can and cannot be done. I have shared the story of P2P investments before; those people also lost their principal by being greedy for small immediate profits. Trading stocks without principles is the same.
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Conduct a simple survey: from 2020 to 2025, over 6 years, GDP is increasing, housing prices are decreasing, and car prices are decreasing. During these six years, have your salaries increased? Decreased? Or remained unchanged.
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The things of the Dao need to be understood by oneself. Why do many people fail at investing? Because what they first see is money, is profit. Those who truly excel at investing look at principles; it’s a matter of whether something can be done, whether it can last. If it does not meet the principles, it cannot be done, it cannot last, it cannot compound. Even if the current opportunity has profit, those with integrity will also give it up. For example, in the case of real estate, many companies across the country have envied this industry and tried to make money in real estate, but the negative consequences of real estate may only appear many years later. By the time the negative results emerge, it’s too late to regret. For instance, that carefree XX made a lot of money, accumulating 2 billion over a lifetime, but in 2015, he lost it all and jumped off a building. The negative consequences of lacking principles can leave one unable to rise again, just like Livermore. Look at Cao Dewang; he insists on only doing automotive glass, and he has been very successful. Then look at Buffett; he has invested his whole life, lived long, and earned a lot. Buffett has talked a lot about these principles, but very few are truly willing to understand them with sincerity.
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Investment requires the right mindset, the establishment of principles, and adherence to those principles. Maintaining the right mindset and sticking to principles is not an easy task. For example, Wuliangye has a market value of 430 billion, while Zhongji Xuchuang has a market value of 660 billion. Is Zhongji Xuchuang's profitability really stronger than Wuliangye's? My judgment is that Zhongji Xuchuang's profitability is not as good as Wuliangye's, and Zhongji Xuchuang is likely severely overvalued or in a bubble. The essence of this speculation is merely to leverage the trend to inflate the stock price, with the funds operating behind the scenes just cashing in on the trend. There is a high probability that there will be a collapse in the future, but I do not know exactly when that day will be. I know that this is something I shouldn't engage in, so I refrain from doing it; I do not envy others for making money, nor do I indulge in greed. So is the current Wuliangye worth investing in? My judgment is that I don't know whether it's worth it or not; if I can't figure it out, I won't engage. Therefore, my principle is very simple: do not engage in what cannot be done, and do not engage in what cannot be understood. For things that do not conform to principles, I won't spend a dime. Once I understand this, I will not be troubled by things like technology or Alibaba this year, as they do not conform to my principles; I will not buy anything. Many people know that some things should not be done, but they cannot control themselves, constantly getting involved. The essence of this is greed, as they cannot maintain their principles in the face of temptation or profit, always wanting to make a little money. If one frequently engages in activities that are against principles, it indicates a reluctance to accept and envy the immediate benefits. Buying 100 shares outside of principles is no different from buying 10,000 shares. Think about Buffett’s principle of not buying tech stocks in 1999; he truly wouldn't buy even 100 shares. Only after truly understanding principles can one remain steadfast as a mountain, and then one will realize the power of remaining steadfast. The longer it lasts, the greater the power of principles becomes, but understanding this is not easy, as the temptations constantly entice people. What can be done within principles, whether it is big or small, is a matter of scale; how much one earns is a matter of ability. Engaging in what cannot be done is a matter of nature. Spending money in a supermarket is normal; what quality of goods can be bought is a matter of ability. Stealing in a supermarket is a matter of nature; stealing a tomato is still stealing, just like stealing a bottle of Maotai or a phone. The essence is all stealing; buying and stealing are distinctions of nature. Investment is counterintuitive, and adhering to principles is very challenging; otherwise, there wouldn't be so many people buying and selling every day.
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The market continues to fluctuate. Currently, the overall market is still in a weak state, lacking cohesion and vitality. Overall, it still does not have the conditions for action. Continue to rest and wait, remain as immovable as a mountain. Recognize reality, recognize yourself. Understand what can be done and what cannot be done; this is not an easy task. Knowing what can be done and doing it, and not doing what cannot be done, is even more challenging.
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Wind and rain send spring back, flying snow welcomes spring's arrival.
It is already a hundred zhang of ice on the cliff, yet there are still beautiful flower branches.
Beauty does not compete for spring, only reports the arrival of spring.
When the mountain flowers bloom in splendor, she smiles among the clusters.
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