The market is frantically betting on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December, with the probability soaring to 80%, and even reaching as high as 90% in January! This is not just an interest rate hike; it directly ignites the fuse for the global ¥19 trillion carry trade! For global traders, this awakens painful memories of Christmas 2022. At that time, the Bank of Japan also unexpectedly adjusted its yield curve control (YCC) policy during the December meeting, raising the upper limit of the 10-year government bond yield from 0.25% to 0.5%, triggering severe turmoil in global markets!
Start with 2000U, within 7 days, up to 12000U. Due to my own chaotic operations, my thoughts have completely scrambled. Do not close the orders; if there is money later or an investor to support, I will reopen the orders. As long as I am still in the cryptocurrency circle, I have the chance to rise! No one can have a 100% win rate; it’s survival of the fittest!
In the early morning, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut of 25 basis points as expected, fully in line with market expectations. A few days ago, it was mentioned that the boot dropping was a favorable signal, which has already been priced in, while the rebound in recent weeks also included favorable expectations for the interest rate cut. With the benefits of the rate cut now realized, the rebound during this round of decline is likely to end at any time. From the perspective of policy rhythm, the probability of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months is extremely low. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in Japan has risen to 90%. The short-term monetary policy is tightening, combined with the liquidity effect brought about by the approaching Christmas, the market liquidity is becoming tighter. In the absence of new favorable expectations for support, it is expected that the overall market will show a clearly weak trend in the second half of the month and even in January and February next year. The current market liquidity is far from the peak period of the previous bull market. If a slightly larger unexpected negative signal occurs later, it could easily trigger a market liquidity crunch, potentially breaking through the previous low point of 80,000 and continuing to search for support downwards. Based on the above views, I hold a pessimistic attitude towards the trend in the next three months. Originally, the plan to roll over operations in the rebound to the 95,000-97,000 area is likely to fail. Below 95,000, I do not plan to roll over operations, and I will continue to firmly hold the short position of #BTC and ETH.
#zec After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last night, it immediately broke through the short-term support level of 420, and the price directly dropped below the 400 mark. Considering the expectation of the market continuing to bottom out in the future, the weekly level rebound of ZEC is very likely to have ended here. Currently, the short-term contract funds in the market are basically no longer paying attention to ZEC, but are flowing into $pippin for speculative games, which means ZEC will gradually withdraw from market attention. The market liquidity will further shrink, and the trend is likely to be dominated by a downward slide, making it difficult to see another rebound against the trend. This round of rebound only reached the first target near 450, and orders in the 450-500 range may not be executed. In terms of position operations, yesterday could not continue to attack, and no orders were executed. The rolling strategy will only be executed in relatively high rebound areas. After the rebound ends, no aggressive rolling will be participated in during the downward process, and the plan is to wait for the market price to break below 300 and drop below 240 before gradually closing positions.
$ETH The probability of an interest rate hike on the 19th of this month has reached 74%. Looking back at history, every time the yen raises interest rates, it leads to a global financial black swan.
As the dollar's 'godson', any interest rate hike in the yen must be at the behest of the Americans. However, the fact that they want to lower interest rates is somewhat puzzling to me. Once again, I advise all friends to buy at the bottom with a stop-loss, otherwise a wave of decline may cause you to exit the market.
The United States released its employment data for November last night, and the results shocked the market. The number of jobs in the private sector dropped by 32,000, completely contrary to expectations. The economy might really be a bit 'hollow'; this data has raised the market's bets on the Federal Reserve definitely lowering interest rates next week to nearly 90%.
Trump once again turned his fire on current Chairman Powell, reiterating that he should cut interest rates as soon as possible. JPMorgan CEO Dimon also supports the rate cut. Trump emphasized, blaming Powell for being 'slow to act and weak in attitude' on lowering borrowing costs, even bluntly stating that he is a 'stubborn bull who doesn't like your president.' For months, Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve, believing that high interest rates are detrimental to economic growth. Appointing a compliant new chairman would undoubtedly be a great opportunity for him to reshape central bank policy and stimulate the economy.
Shorting ZEC has made a fortune! Can it continue to fall? How will Ethereum move?
分析师舒琴
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Hahaha, we made a fortune shorting ZEC! Can it continue to fall? What will happen to Ethereum? Let's talk about my thoughts. First of all, ZEC has finally collapsed, dropping to the previous low of 440 today. As shown in the picture, this place was a position that had been tested multiple times before, so there is some support here. If you want stability, you can take profit here and see if there is a larger rebound before continuing to short, especially around the key levels of 550 and 600. I only short it; I don't go long.
Overall, the popularity of ZEC is gradually decreasing. In another month, I estimate that not many people will be discussing it anymore. At that time, it should break the neckline support at 440 and drop to 300 or even lower. Shu Qin has been recommending everyone to short this coin every few days. Don't be greedy with low leverage in the medium to long term; we have achieved the results we wanted every time. Congratulations, everyone!
As for Ethereum, it is approaching the upgrade on December 4th, and the coin price is starting to strengthen. This is consistent with our expectations. However, because many people are trapped above, there is considerable selling pressure, making it quite difficult to rise. I think the most ideal short position is still around 3250, for example, you can start shorting around 3230, or wait until the eve of the interest rate cut on December 10th. At that time, we can short it without any hesitation, opening positions aggressively every day~
Attention everyone! The great god who predicted the SOL explosion back then is now calling $XPL !
Last time this guy called SOL, how many people ignored it? As a result, SOL went from $20 to $200!
Now the same script is coming again— Are you going to miss it the second time?
Trust the great god, gain eternal life! Those who don't believe, wait to regret it later!
In a word: Those who didn't follow SOL back then, this time $XPL is the last chance! If you don't get on board now, will you wait until it goes up to ask why you didn't believe earlier?
$BTC In the 1-hour level of the pancake, it started to rise continuously from the low around 83500 in the early stage, and the current price is approaching around 88100. The K-line has already strongly approached the upper Bollinger Band, and the opening of the Bollinger Band is expanding, reinforcing the upward trend. Moreover, during the rise, the volume has increased, indicating that there is still strength to support the upward trend. If it can break through the high point resistance of 88500 with increased volume, the short-term upward space is expected to open further. If it continues to face pressure and falls back, we will first look at the key support near the Bollinger Band middle track range of 86500-86000. Currently, the technical shape and volume cooperation point to a short-term strong pattern, and it is necessary to focus on the effectiveness of breaking through the pressure level above. Doing an upward trend near 85500, aiming for 87400.
BTC price fluctuations may lead to CEX liquidation intensity reaching billions of dollars
According to ChainCatcher, if BTC falls below $80,213, the cumulative long liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach $2.083 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $88,585, the cumulative short liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach $1.986 billion.
The US non-farm data for September has caused a massive upheaval! As soon as the data was released, US stocks soared like they were 'boosted', with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all going wild, and tech stocks particularly went on a rampage. On the other hand, gold and cryptocurrencies plummeted, especially in the crypto space, which crashed by 5% overnight.