刘三炮

We’ve already arrived at the court. Take a group of police to the person who owes money to demand repayment. If that doesn’t work, apply for detention. If we can’t get the money, it’s still good to have him taken in.

If I lend you money, will you block me?
Tomorrow Sanpao livestream the live scene of detaining a dishonest debtor

Help, coin-circle teachers—what should I do when dealing with this kind of dishonest debtor who owes money and won’t pay? The appellate ruling is already in my favor; today I went to check the way, and tomorrow I will file for judicial detention. This is the only thing I can do.

As for his side: he has no assets under his name and no income, and there are overdue loans in multiple places. After the detention, what else can I do to get him to pay back?

I’m stuck on whether Hynix’s current “shorting and hedging, then topping up to cover and going long” strategy will lead to further downside, or whether I should top up now and wait for a rebound

We already know that Micron, Western Digital, and Samsung/Seagate have all stopped falling, and the Korean index has also halted
, and Changxin has ended too

Are we set to continue the downtrend, or should we just get a rebound first and then keep falling?

Trump finally stopped pretending and made it clear: he wants interest rate cuts to meet his governing needs. Even today, before rate hikes have started, money has already run out.

To put it nicely, he’s supporting Waller in cutting rates, wanting the U.S. interest rate to be the lowest in the world—back to 30 years ago—while firing at the Fed’s “rate-cut blockers.”

The less flattering version: if the rate cut goes well, it’s because he improved the economy on his watch; if it goes badly, it’s because Waller mishandled things. The boss gives you the order to get ahead of the curve, to exceed the targets—and then you’d better know how to take the blame.

Think about a country with a population of 50 million—how could it produce 100 million active stock trading accounts, and moreover, out of every five accounts, two are borrowing money to trade stocks.

This isn’t stock trading, and it isn’t investment. It’s a nationwide gambling game.

Since it’s gambling, people are going to lose. And now the Korean stock market has lost: multiple times of selloff and trading halts after sharp declines, losing to the peak of the industry cycle, losing to the burst of a leverage bubble, losing to the withdrawal of foreign capital, and also losing due to structural defects in the KOSPI index’s weighting.

Its stock market is highly dependent on semiconductor tech companies like Hynix and Samsung. As a result, after the listing of CXMT and the fact that it can produce lithography machines—taking market share away—when the U.S. stock market falls, Korean stocks fall too.

A single sector can drag down the entire market systemically, forming a death spiral: decline → liquidation margin calls → decline again.

I don’t know whether Hynix can rebound, but I do know this: as long as it rebounds by 10%, you can focus on shorting it.

It doesn’t have the same strong Nasdaq-style base, and it has even more leverage-driven capital than Micron and the likes of SanDisk.

As long as it can reach again between 1180 and 1230, that’s my timing for shorting. It’s impossible that by shorting Hynix, I could change the fate of the Korean market’s decline.

Brother Feng, you need to remember this

The US tech stocks fell because China built lithography machines. South Korea fell because the US fell. China fell because South Korea fell. The conclusion is that China's lithography machines caused China's tech stocks to plunge.

They set you up! When the Korean stocks heard the news, they plunged and triggered circuit breakers. The U.S. market panicked and a stock market crash appeared

What do you mean by “Changxin is listed on Monday, and by Tuesday you can produce lithography machines”?
SK hynix and Samsung collapse at lightning speed—along with SanDisk and Micron jumping off a cliff

Originally, the bearish factors were:
1. Worries about whether investment in the AI boom can be sustained; this sentiment is heating up
2. The $750 billion NVIDIA transaction triggers AI panic
3. Ongoing and escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran
4. The Fed’s high-interest-rate environment has been in place
5. On Monday, Changxin Storage’s memory IPO hit the market and rushed to seize market share

Originally, these wouldn’t have caused a direct drop. Who knew that the U.S. media would publish a doomsday-level report? The Eastern great power began producing DUV lithography machines—delivery can be made this year, and the manufacturer includes Changxin Storage.

This news was the spark. What’s the point of all your investments—SK hynix, Micron, SanDisk? You invested so much, so what did you get? It’s not even as good as a newly listed Changxin Storage. This single piece of news directly pushed sentiment to its peak.

Hear the news—doubt—sell—plunge—panic—sell—risk—sell—keeps cycling.

The U.S. stock market crashed, and the Korean market’s circuit breakers tripped as it fell.

In the absence of good countermeasures, whether it’s the U.S. market or SK hynix or Micron or SanDisk—if they rebound, you should short them. Since they’re volatile, after the rebound of 8%-10%, you can start shorting.

How is it that news about our lithography machines comes from the US media?

And it’s precisely this little essay that directly shook US stocks into a market disaster. I thought that once I started buying at Shanghai Lishi—or rather, once it comes to Lishi—Lishi would drop 10%.

After all this, is it that Changxin ended up lifting Lishi and also treated SanDisk and Micron as if they were just birds?

Ah, damn it. I just added some to my position in Lishi hoping it will be partly cloudy tomorrow.

Why did CL oil drop by 12%?
That’s because the US and Iran stopped fighting, and tensions eased.

Why did the US and Iran stop fighting?
Because Trump backed down—he saw Brent crude break above $100. If WTI/CL also breaks above $100, what then?

So he backed down. He didn’t dare keep fighting. What he could do was halt the fighting and push down oil prices.
If they fought any further and oil prices went above $100, public anger would be impossible to suppress.

So after the weekend, risk assets rebound and recover!
Bitcoin is very happy, rising from 63,800 to 65,600.
Ethereum rose from 1,855 to 1,980.
The Nasdaq, SanDisk, and Micron also bounced back, up 4%.

But Trump is a businessman—he can’t just give up the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is the local power; they won’t surrender at 15:00.
They’ll keep fighting. This won’t just end abruptly. Negotiations are merely a stopgap.

WTI/CL will still stand above 95. Bitcoin will still fall back below 61,000. Ethereum will remain limited to just 1,500–1,700.

What do you mean by the top 10 crypto market liquidation events in history—didn’t you ever get hurt even once?

The worst one was the 1011 event: the largest-scale chain liquidation.

There are two core reasons:
1. Trump publicly stated his plan to implement 100% tariffs, and Bitcoin instantly crashed.

2. Our account transfer system here stalled for 33 minutes, which intensified retail panic selling.

The results were:
1. BTC plunged from a peak of $122,000 down to $101,500—its largest drop in 24 hours was 16.4%. ETH fell 22%.

2. Across the whole network, $19.2 billion in derivatives positions were liquidated within 24 hours; 1.64 million accounts were force-closed, and over 90% were long positions liquidated.

3. The stablecoin USDe de-pegged to an extreme low of $0.65. Many altcoins dropped more than 80% within minutes—nearing zero.

4. The liquidation scale far exceeded 312 and the FTX collapse, and the market defined it as the new-generation crypto “black swan.”

It’s been half a year, but the impact is still there. In that bull market, long leverage was maxed out—then everything was purged in one go.

Have respect for black swans; every single one is a lesson paid for with blood and tears.

Hynix 1205 longs surged to 1240—can we still keep holding? Of course we can. Our goal is 1300!

Only need Nasdaq futures to open and close normally in the US stock market today, and tomorrow the Korean stock market’s rise will provide enough support.

Nasdaq futures are still rising.
Before the bell, Micron, Hynix, and SanDisk are also seeing mostly buy orders.
Korean stocks, A-shares, and the Shenzhen Component are all in an uptrend.

ChangXin’s IPO saw a 500% increase—there will definitely be a positive boost to the memory market in the short term.

That means the gains that should happen on Monday and Tuesday will be completed.

Once the upside volume is fully released, look at the bearish trend on Thursday and Friday.

Hype long Changxin's funding rate is -3320%

The cost of shorting in the market is extremely high

U.S.-Iran Again Discuss De-escalation, Oil Prices Drop
SK hynix Signs a $95 Billion Deal for Sale of Its Entity
Changxin Listing Pulls in 3 Trillion, Fully Loaded

Three hot-off-the-press pieces of news filled Monday and Tuesday—useful for boosting crypto prices, but insufficient to lift them

Once these pseudo-good-justifications are used up, we’ll see whether the Fed hawkishly expands things on Thursday. The market is waiting for a plunge so it can take off.

Everyone has their own Hailers, and everyone has their own Evergrande properties.

Money never disappears—it only layers by layers, eventually flowing into the upper-level pockets.

So awful
BitMart’s CEO didn’t even know his own company had shut down

Many advisors = bosses, many community leaders = mini-bosses
CEO, CFO, CMO = employees

That’s also why many employees only found out they were out of a job when they saw the news

Fire and it drops, talks and it rises? This theory has already gotten numb in the US-Iran situation

In the past, market logic was simple:
Fire increases risk; the US stock market and Bitcoin fall
Talks reduce risk; a de-escalation is bullish for the US stock market and Bitcoin

But this theory has been gradually losing effectiveness in the US-Iran conflict

Because fighting while negotiating is the norm—fighting itself is part of the negotiation
So for us, everything here is a distraction

The latest news can create volatility, but it can’t change the overall situation

Now the US-Iran dynamic is basically “fighting while negotiating, negotiating while fighting.” The market has been worn down again and again, and purely news-driven price action is no longer there

Bitcoin will still follow sentiment in the short term, but what ultimately determines its future direction is the broader macroeconomic environment, interest rates, and the cycle

The rally since the weekend has already gained 1,500 points. For a decline to come, it would likely be under pressure around 66,000. The risk-reward ratio for shorting at 66,000 is better than it is now at 65,370

The room for long positions is being gradually squeezed; short setups can be attempted around 66,000 after a rebound

The listing of Changxin’s “giant” — is everyone wondering whether it will drop after it’s up today?

After Changxin pulls funds from the bloodletting market, to keep the stock from falling, the only way is to make it through the memory sector, become a key industry representative, and ensure sustained profitability.

Only then can it withstand the realization of fundamentals. Keeping the ability to make money continuously is the best return for investors.

Watch it in one go for 5 minutes to understand when the Bitcoin bull market is coming

As the saying goes, if you don’t chase longs on Monday, you can still be a wealthy man; if you don’t short on Friday, your pocket won’t be empty. That is the current state of Bitcoin.

An up candle in April
A long upper shadow and bearish candle in May
A bearish full body candle in June

These three months form a “dusk star” (evening star)

July ends with a mild rebound; in August, the market enters a downward rhythm.

That is also the current state of Bitcoin.

On the monthly chart, Bitcoin has already given a bearish signal—and this is another stable “dusk star” pattern.

Considering that on Thursday the Fed is likely to focus on this month’s rise in crude oil, with ongoing conflict and the possibility of hawkish statements increasing,

there will likely be rate hikes before the end of the year, and rate cuts at the beginning of next year.

After the drop in August, from September to October the market wraps up by dipping lower and building a base. By the end of the year through the holiday period, the candles will likely undergo a repair for consolidation and accumulation. After the New Year, the market will start rising again, heating up as the bull market approaches.

This is what the best scenario for Bitcoin looks like.

That day, humanity’s frenzy
The birth of the first billionaire in history

That day, the stock market’s celebration
The most important IPO ceremony in history—SpaceX goes public at the trillion-level

That day, the continuation of human civilization
Maybe moving to Mars will really be something that someone can help us achieve

Everything is telling you that today
Get stuck in a 10-year SpaceX deal together—so-called “we won’t be trapped”; where would Musk get the money? Once the ten-year term ends, if you hold on for 50 years, your grandson will inherit your account—and then there’ll be money to marry a girl from Jiangxi who comes back

NVIDIA has become the AI central bank—charging seigniorage, allocating all the risk to the manufacturers. Unbeatable. Seriously.

$950 billion! Sounds impressive just by the number.

But be clear: the intended amount ≠ actual investment.

At Hynix and Samsung, facing NVIDIA is a contract to sell oneself—that’s master and servant.

In the eyes of the Korean (media) crowd, this is $95 billion—this is the courage boost the national situation requires.

Nobody cares about the real investment timeline, the rate at which funds actually arrive, or the production capacity delivery rate.

Korean stocks only need that $950 billion figure. Only the market—the realist—will tell the truth; once real capital flows in, you can clearly feel it.

Only Hynix’s stock price will tell us the answer. Last week’s -8.8% drop might be the real world.