My drawing was almost true but it turned out to be faster than I thought, now $BTC is setting new all time high every hour 😂
Soon, the liquidity will flow to ALTs like $ETH $BNB well as $Dot and $SUI with large market caps, then it will probably flow to smaller coins such as $FET, $KAS then later smaller coins like $Token and others.
Janna Kivela ccSz
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My price prediction wasn't bad after all 😅 Breakout is coming soon after the election 🙃
As crypto gained legal support in the US and many US hedge funds joined the party and then we got the ETFs, big investment banks and entities bought and crypto guys were too optimistic that these entities will buy and hold for a long time decreasing the supply and bitcoin will go to the moon!
The reality is, most investment banks and even hedge funds become super excited with 10-20% annual capital gain and they start to sell this investment. They are not long term holders like us, they bought in the 20-30k range and now they have around 100% gain year to date. As some of them still expect a recussion, they just go to their 'risky most hyped investment pocket' and they start selling, that's why we are still stuck in the 50-70k range even with all the bullish news, even with global liquidity kicking in!
Frankly, if these entities haven't joined the party, bitcoin would be over 90k already and the up-trend would have been intact. So, it seems likely to remain like that for some time until these entities reduce their holding substantially and they regret it when they see bitcoin pushing over 100k by the start of next year, I hope it happens so they learn to never sell next time and learn that this market is different and it's for long term holding and shouldn't be treated as a 'risky investment'
Janna Kivela ccSz
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Warnning: Mysterious seller of tech stocks in wall street
While everything is looking bullish, there's some entity selling risky investments when the volume is high enough.
At first, I thought it's some kind of manipulations but it seems someone is really selling when they get enough liquidity to sell. It happened with bitcoin, NASDAQ and Nvidia on multiple occasions when volumes are high and many people are buying.
It is unkown how much this entity holds and when they will get comfortable with the amount of allocation they have. So, when you see high volumes on bullish news, watch out of potential selling leading to another fall to the local bottom. It is clear, this entity doesn't want the crash the price but they just want to sell a huge amount and they find opportiunity to do so when volumes are high. So, you don't need to panic when you see a dump, they will stop selling when the bottom is reached and they'll sell again when they get liquidity in another day.
If you notice today, there was no sell-the-news event as the volume wasn't high, so today they waited to let people get over-excited later and they started selling. If you also notice, the dump starts at the start of an hour, for example last time, it was 12:00 AM GMT+2 and this time it's 9:00 PM GMT+2, so it appears to be a selling decision ordered by a hedge fund manager or something like that. So, please watch out of short term fluctuations when volumes gets higher and manage risk accordingly!
It might continue happening until the end of September as recussion fears are still significant in the US. In Q4, the risk-on sentiment will likely return and this entity and the others will increase their exposure again to 'risky investments' as they call it!
Warnning: Mysterious seller of tech stocks in wall street
While everything is looking bullish, there's some entity selling risky investments when the volume is high enough.
At first, I thought it's some kind of manipulations but it seems someone is really selling when they get enough liquidity to sell. It happened with bitcoin, NASDAQ and Nvidia on multiple occasions when volumes are high and many people are buying.
It is unkown how much this entity holds and when they will get comfortable with the amount of allocation they have. So, when you see high volumes on bullish news, watch out of potential selling leading to another fall to the local bottom. It is clear, this entity doesn't want the crash the price but they just want to sell a huge amount and they find opportiunity to do so when volumes are high. So, you don't need to panic when you see a dump, they will stop selling when the bottom is reached and they'll sell again when they get liquidity in another day.
If you notice today, there was no sell-the-news event as the volume wasn't high, so today they waited to let people get over-excited later and they started selling. If you also notice, the dump starts at the start of an hour, for example last time, it was 12:00 AM GMT+2 and this time it's 9:00 PM GMT+2, so it appears to be a selling decision ordered by a hedge fund manager or something like that. So, please watch out of short term fluctuations when volumes gets higher and manage risk accordingly!
It might continue happening until the end of September as recussion fears are still significant in the US. In Q4, the risk-on sentiment will likely return and this entity and the others will increase their exposure again to 'risky investments' as they call it!
What I was expecting a week ago turns out to be happening now instead. It looks like markets didn't react on the finincial data until the FED chair finally said it out loud that it's time to cut (this is probably as we were waiting for too long and the FED kept delaying rate cuts).
Please note that this time, it's not the right time to sell at the top of the range at 68-72k area anymore!
If you notice, we took a good rally from 25k to 73k near the end of last year as expectation of rate cuts were high (if you remember FED chair expected 3 cuts near the end of last year). In march, data were't as good and market sentiment changed, so we went consolidating sideways. At the same time, many organizations were forced to sell to compensate creditors such as FTX, MT Gox as well as german government and the japanese investors.
Now, that we are clear of rate cuts and the selling pressure is over, expect that we continue the uptrend we had in 2023 moving forward.
We also see it clearly from RSI and large volume at 49k candle.
Wish you all luck, buy spot of your favorable coins and leave your wallets for 2 months then go to sleep 😅😂
Janna Kivela ccSz
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Bullish
Guys, please note that this is really the last chance to accumulate. The CPI data is very positive and there's no reason for any downward movements except reckless shorting. Today, we are expected to get a big green candle for $BTC up to 69k or something close to it!
Tomorrow, if further data suggests the soft landing, we might escape this price range once and for all!
Don't get fooled by recent price action which is merely based on data misinterpretation and manipulations, focus on the fundmentals as they're never wrong!
Guys, please don't get fooled by what happened today, it's a pure manipulation and you'll shortly discover that. Yes, I didn't expect it but I'm pretty sure the market will experience a major move to the upside in the next 48 hours at most. The manipulations were performed on all finincial markets, not just crypto, even websites like investing.com tried to project the same idea even before the data was out as in the picture attached
There are a lot of things I discovered about this manipulations performed by hedge funds.
If you remember on this old post, one of the reasons I was bearish was due to the fact that some hedge funds started shorting $BTC at 70k, there was around 10 billions of liquidity up there. Today, after the data was out, these hedge funds went on a selling spree and they closed most of their short positions during the downward movement. It's a very bullish sign! You can check in the attached picture how liquidity decreased massively on the top of the range..
These guys can't stay out of the market for too long, they just want to force as many people to short as possible to get the GOD candle initiated while accumulating at lower prices at a moderate rate before the surge!
The most important thing to do right now is to avoid shorting the market, it might liquide you in minutes even if you use low leverage if what I'm thinking of is correct.
In a few hours, blackrock will announce who's buying the ETFs and tomorrow, we'll get more finincial data. So, keeping the market at these low prices for a long time is almost impossible!
Janna Kivela ccSz
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Bearish
Guys, there are several warning signals flashing right now. It points out to a short term dump in the price.
1. Yesterday we saw non-promising data from the US economy which may delay the rate cuts.
2. We saw a little bit of withdrawals from major holders like Mr. 100 and others.
3. The US market is heading for a little bit of correction which is clear from last two days strong dump
4. Also, MT Gox still has 6 billions of undistributed funds and grayscale is dumping eth in the market so the selling pressure isn't over yet
5. Today, $BTC price targeted a resting liquidity at 68k and bounced back quickly which is a very clear bearish signal in the short term
Please note this is just short term, things will probably look much better in a week or two, but I think we might get a bearish trend short term trend formation next week, so please be prepared
Many people may wonder why do manipulations occur, the answer is simple actually.
Most people have no ethics when it comes to money especially those who are super rich, most of them have no morals at all. When they see retailers focus on price movements too much instead of the fundamentals, they decide to fool people to maximize their profits. Another problem is that most retailers use leverage which forces them to exit at strong price fluctuations.
It works as follows, if I am a billionair, I have an investment portfolio that includes cash, let's say I have 15% of my net worth in cash. Now, I look at the fundamentals and know that there will be a supply shock in a few months, but everyone looks at the same fundamentals. If I buy now with the cash available, holders will find out that and won't sell to me at a low price, so what should I do? Instead of buying, I decide to sell too much to force most people to sell then I can buy from them at low prices.
But, if everyone in this market was wise enough, they would buy all of what this entity sold and price won't even move much, then this manipulative entity will learn the lesson, as instead of buying 15% at a high price, they will have to buy 15% plus what they sold at this price so they end up losing.
The real issue is that retailers aren't too wise and they get fooled easily and they tend to use a lot of leverage making these manipulative schemes possible which shouldn't be possible in the first place.
So what should we take from this? 1. Use no leverage whether you long or short the market based on fundmental analysis. Actually shorting should only be done on overvalued assets as a hedge during times of uncertainity, nothing more than that!
2. Don't focus on price action in the short term, focus more on the fundmentals.
It seems that whales are trying to target the liquidity at 60k to be able to enter the market at favorable prices before the pump, whether they get successful in doing this or not is uncertain but what's certain is that the market will pump very fast in a few hours!
Janna Kivela ccSz
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Bullish
Guys, please note that this is really the last chance to accumulate. The CPI data is very positive and there's no reason for any downward movements except reckless shorting. Today, we are expected to get a big green candle for $BTC up to 69k or something close to it!
Tomorrow, if further data suggests the soft landing, we might escape this price range once and for all!
Don't get fooled by recent price action which is merely based on data misinterpretation and manipulations, focus on the fundmentals as they're never wrong!
Guys, please note that this is really the last chance to accumulate. The CPI data is very positive and there's no reason for any downward movements except reckless shorting. Today, we are expected to get a big green candle for $BTC up to 69k or something close to it!
Tomorrow, if further data suggests the soft landing, we might escape this price range once and for all!
Don't get fooled by recent price action which is merely based on data misinterpretation and manipulations, focus on the fundmentals as they're never wrong!
Janna Kivela ccSz
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Bullish
Prepare yourself for a possible GOD candle today!
Today, we get CPI data which might be the catalyst for the next move to 69-70k which might just happen today!
My expectation is that the mid-time frame trend will break this week. If you notice, retailers are completely pushed out of the market, as $BTC tried to break the range high 3 times with lots of hope, and everyone ends up losing.
In the long candle wick to the downside, it was really a giveup on the market fearing recussion. At this time, whales swallowed up the BTC supply pumping the price really fast, you can see from the large volume that is the highest in this cycle. Two days after that, we saw another large green candle that might be the largest during this bull run! You can confirm that most retailers are out by watching ALTs movement that underperforms BTC massively in recent days.
What does this indicate? It indicates that the market is about to explode as the BTC supply deminishes as whales bought most of it. Also, the economic situation is looking more clear now and will be crystal clear by the end of this week allowing for a major move in BTC price.
Also, the risk of war decreased as well as the selling pressure from collapsed exchanges. We had FTX, german government, grayscale, MT Gox selling in the last few months. Now, that's almost over, what do you think will happen to prices? It'll definitely skyrocket!
Basically most of the selling pressure now is coming from shorting the market by borrowing BTC that they don't even own. Once the price shoots up, it'll lead to a big short squeeze getting all of these shorts out inverting them into buyers to cut their losses!
The fundmental market direction is very clear now and will be 100% clear by the end of the week, I advise everyone to get in today as it might be really the last chance to catch the train!
Today, we get CPI data which might be the catalyst for the next move to 69-70k which might just happen today!
My expectation is that the mid-time frame trend will break this week. If you notice, retailers are completely pushed out of the market, as $BTC tried to break the range high 3 times with lots of hope, and everyone ends up losing.
In the long candle wick to the downside, it was really a giveup on the market fearing recussion. At this time, whales swallowed up the BTC supply pumping the price really fast, you can see from the large volume that is the highest in this cycle. Two days after that, we saw another large green candle that might be the largest during this bull run! You can confirm that most retailers are out by watching ALTs movement that underperforms BTC massively in recent days.
What does this indicate? It indicates that the market is about to explode as the BTC supply deminishes as whales bought most of it. Also, the economic situation is looking more clear now and will be crystal clear by the end of this week allowing for a major move in BTC price.
Also, the risk of war decreased as well as the selling pressure from collapsed exchanges. We had FTX, german government, grayscale, MT Gox selling in the last few months. Now, that's almost over, what do you think will happen to prices? It'll definitely skyrocket!
Basically most of the selling pressure now is coming from shorting the market by borrowing BTC that they don't even own. Once the price shoots up, it'll lead to a big short squeeze getting all of these shorts out inverting them into buyers to cut their losses!
The fundmental market direction is very clear now and will be 100% clear by the end of the week, I advise everyone to get in today as it might be really the last chance to catch the train!
Janna Kivela ccSz
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Bullish
Guys, please don't miss the opportiunity to enter the market now.
Market has flipped bullish right now, what's happening today is pure manipulation to get retailers out before the big move that might happen as soon as tomorrow. Usually whales manipulate the markets before big events.
Last week, the recussion fear eased as unemployment situation appeared not as bad, so the economy might have dodged the recussion already.
Tomorrow, we get PPI then CPI the next day, inflation has declined and everything is looking bullish, today might be the last chance to accumulate and you'll see the price shooting over 60k again by the end of the day.
We saw manipulations from many holders transferring funds to other wallets they own such as Mr. 100 and others. Please don't miss the opportiunity, don't get afraid and get out at the most crucial point!
Now is the best time to DCA, start DCA from now to finish by tomorrow maximum as it'll get wild after that.
Guys, please don't miss the opportiunity to enter the market now.
Market has flipped bullish right now, what's happening today is pure manipulation to get retailers out before the big move that might happen as soon as tomorrow. Usually whales manipulate the markets before big events.
Last week, the recussion fear eased as unemployment situation appeared not as bad, so the economy might have dodged the recussion already.
Tomorrow, we get PPI then CPI the next day, inflation has declined and everything is looking bullish, today might be the last chance to accumulate and you'll see the price shooting over 60k again by the end of the day.
We saw manipulations from many holders transferring funds to other wallets they own such as Mr. 100 and others. Please don't miss the opportiunity, don't get afraid and get out at the most crucial point!
Now is the best time to DCA, start DCA from now to finish by tomorrow maximum as it'll get wild after that.
Janna Kivela ccSz
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Bearish
Guys please watch out, last time we were thinking that the market is flipping back bullish but it seems there a big red candle coming possibly tomorrow as we have more unemployment data.
If you remember in the last post, yesterday or maximum today, we were expecting a bullish movement above 58k to confirm reversal but now market appears to lack buying momentum to break this resistance even at these low prices. Also, we saw today some whales having big withdrawals again.
Basically there are two fears now, 1. Recussion in the US 2. Large war in the middle east intiating WW3
It's better to prepare for the worst by having some funds out of the market to buy at much lower prices and also have some short positions open for overvalued coins like $SOL while having spot open on $BTC only for now as a hedge against price changes in both directions.
Guys please watch out, last time we were thinking that the market is flipping back bullish but it seems there a big red candle coming possibly tomorrow as we have more unemployment data.
If you remember in the last post, yesterday or maximum today, we were expecting a bullish movement above 58k to confirm reversal but now market appears to lack buying momentum to break this resistance even at these low prices. Also, we saw today some whales having big withdrawals again.
Basically there are two fears now, 1. Recussion in the US 2. Large war in the middle east intiating WW3
It's better to prepare for the worst by having some funds out of the market to buy at much lower prices and also have some short positions open for overvalued coins like $SOL while having spot open on $BTC only for now as a hedge against price changes in both directions.
Janna Kivela ccSz
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Bullish
Yesterday, we had the highest volume recorded in this bull cycle of around 160k bitcoin on binance alone. That's huge, it looks to be a povital in this cycle, today we need to recover to yesterday's open price to become mega bullish as it means full reversal with a very high volume!
It means that whales got in and bought a large amount of BTC stake which would take away the supply from retailers and allow for massive price increases in the following months as selling pressure drops. It is confirmed by the movement of many whales such as Mr 100 who bought almost 2.5k yesterday alone!
If we close above 58k today, get ready for breaking ATH very very soon!
Yesterday, we had the highest volume recorded in this bull cycle of around 160k bitcoin on binance alone. That's huge, it looks to be a povital in this cycle, today we need to recover to yesterday's open price to become mega bullish as it means full reversal with a very high volume!
It means that whales got in and bought a large amount of BTC stake which would take away the supply from retailers and allow for massive price increases in the following months as selling pressure drops. It is confirmed by the movement of many whales such as Mr 100 who bought almost 2.5k yesterday alone!
If we close above 58k today, get ready for breaking ATH very very soon!
Guys, please don't buy in the FOMO caused by BTC conference and Trump speach. Most likely we will get correction next week and get a chance to buy at 63k or even a bit lower, it's better to prepare from now!
Janna Kivela ccSz
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Bearish
Guys, there are several warning signals flashing right now. It points out to a short term dump in the price.
1. Yesterday we saw non-promising data from the US economy which may delay the rate cuts.
2. We saw a little bit of withdrawals from major holders like Mr. 100 and others.
3. The US market is heading for a little bit of correction which is clear from last two days strong dump
4. Also, MT Gox still has 6 billions of undistributed funds and grayscale is dumping eth in the market so the selling pressure isn't over yet
5. Today, $BTC price targeted a resting liquidity at 68k and bounced back quickly which is a very clear bearish signal in the short term
Please note this is just short term, things will probably look much better in a week or two, but I think we might get a bearish trend short term trend formation next week, so please be prepared
Guys, there are several warning signals flashing right now. It points out to a short term dump in the price.
1. Yesterday we saw non-promising data from the US economy which may delay the rate cuts.
2. We saw a little bit of withdrawals from major holders like Mr. 100 and others.
3. The US market is heading for a little bit of correction which is clear from last two days strong dump
4. Also, MT Gox still has 6 billions of undistributed funds and grayscale is dumping eth in the market so the selling pressure isn't over yet
5. Today, $BTC price targeted a resting liquidity at 68k and bounced back quickly which is a very clear bearish signal in the short term
Please note this is just short term, things will probably look much better in a week or two, but I think we might get a bearish trend short term trend formation next week, so please be prepared
Guys, next week will be very important for setting the direction for crypto.
Normally, BTC is expected to break ATH and enter the parabolic phase following all fundmental indicators. However, there's one risk knowing that S&P_500 is entering a corrective phase, there's a strong correlation between bitcoin and traditional markets, I hope it breaks this time.
If we break 72k resistance next week, we will surely enter the parabolic phase, but until we get there, a correction is also possible!
By the end of next week, we have jobless claims and PCE news, I think that will be highly important in determining whether or not we break ATH and enter parabolic phase of this cycle, I don't think the market will wait to act on FED meeting by the end of the month
Janna Kivela ccSz
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Bullish
If we close daily above 65k today, it'll be a series of 6-daily green candles which is the most bullish it has ever been since last pump to ATH
However, as we get more green daily candles, it's almost certain to have a day or two of red candles, so don't freak out and hold until we break the ATH possibly by the end of this month!
If we close daily above 65k today, it'll be a series of 6-daily green candles which is the most bullish it has ever been since last pump to ATH
However, as we get more green daily candles, it's almost certain to have a day or two of red candles, so don't freak out and hold until we break the ATH possibly by the end of this month!
Janna Kivela ccSz
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Bullish
Guys, if you're out of the market, you're going to miss out on the most important bitcoin move that will start possibly this month, I've never seen a perfect entry point like this one, just DCA to finish buying the whole amount by the end of next week, please read this carefully if you don't believe it!
Big bitcoin holders are like any merchant you meet in street, they want to buy stuff at the cheapest price possible then they hold a little until they get the chance to sell at very high prices. Now, after the news about MT Gox and then seeing the german government selling, what did whales do? They sold much more to dump the price down as much as possible so that they can buy from the germans & MT Gox holders very cheap, when the selling is over and whales didn't buy the whole amount that they sold, they will start buying from retailers with higher prices pumping prices too high too quickly which effectively starts the parabolic phase of this cycle. It will happen very fast when the selling phase is over.
In the past few months, there were a lot of sellers,
1. First we have FTX which sold 16 billions 2. Miners who sold in order to upgrade their data centers 3. MT Gox 4. German & US government to support Ukrain & Israel 5. Greyscale, but I think it doesn't matter as their funds go to blackrock & fidelity
What's the normal reaction when whales saw this selling? It was to lower the prices to buy from them cheaply! Also, FTX kept selling above 70k dropping the price whenever it gets above previous 2021 high.
By the end of July, this selling spree will cool down significantly as german government will be empty & miners are done and MT Gox already transferred, we also have eth approval & more positive news about rate cuts in the US.
Before the rate cuts, whales will try to pump the price in order to sell with high prices later knowing there's more demand coming up caused by global liquidity and 16 billions in cash given to old FTX users which may add fuel to the fire pumping to over 90k in a few weeks!
This is the simple logic of the market, believe it or not!
Guys, if you're out of the market, you're going to miss out on the most important bitcoin move that will start possibly this month, I've never seen a perfect entry point like this one, just DCA to finish buying the whole amount by the end of next week, please read this carefully if you don't believe it!
Big bitcoin holders are like any merchant you meet in street, they want to buy stuff at the cheapest price possible then they hold a little until they get the chance to sell at very high prices. Now, after the news about MT Gox and then seeing the german government selling, what did whales do? They sold much more to dump the price down as much as possible so that they can buy from the germans & MT Gox holders very cheap, when the selling is over and whales didn't buy the whole amount that they sold, they will start buying from retailers with higher prices pumping prices too high too quickly which effectively starts the parabolic phase of this cycle. It will happen very fast when the selling phase is over.
In the past few months, there were a lot of sellers,
1. First we have FTX which sold 16 billions 2. Miners who sold in order to upgrade their data centers 3. MT Gox 4. German & US government to support Ukrain & Israel 5. Greyscale, but I think it doesn't matter as their funds go to blackrock & fidelity
What's the normal reaction when whales saw this selling? It was to lower the prices to buy from them cheaply! Also, FTX kept selling above 70k dropping the price whenever it gets above previous 2021 high.
By the end of July, this selling spree will cool down significantly as german government will be empty & miners are done and MT Gox already transferred, we also have eth approval & more positive news about rate cuts in the US.
Before the rate cuts, whales will try to pump the price in order to sell with high prices later knowing there's more demand coming up caused by global liquidity and 16 billions in cash given to old FTX users which may add fuel to the fire pumping to over 90k in a few weeks!
This is the simple logic of the market, believe it or not!
Janna Kivela ccSz
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If you need a proof that it's an over-reaction, here it is,
The amount of BTC that the german government and MT Gox combined hold is about 190k, look at the daily volume on binance alone, yesterday it was 55k.
Of course a part of it, is scalping and day trading but you can get this away by subtracting the average volume which is around 25k.
So, people sold in a single day 30k on binance alone which is 15% of the total distribution. That's only binance in a single day, you have coinbase, bitstamp and others!
Remember, we had been dropping from 64k to 54k for this FUD, on binance alone, people sold the 190k they are too afraid of distributing!
Moreover, most MT Gox holders are early bitcoiners and won't sell at these prices knowing there's a BULL run ahead. This altmightly will lead to a big spike as most of the people who sold are planning to buy back!
If you have funds, just DCA, and capture the spike that will happen this month reversing all of the downside movement below 70k!