TC天辰啊

Today's outlook
$BTC Consider shorting if it rebounds to 83,200–83,600. First target: around 82,200; second target: around 81,500. Alternatively, wait for a 4H close below around 82,300 before entering a short. Close the position if a 4H candle closes back above around 83,800. No long positions.
$ETH Consider shorting if it rebounds to 2,520–2,550. First target: around 2,430. Alternatively, wait for a 4H close below around 2,480 before entering a short. Don’t chase a short at the current price.
$ZEC Consider shorting if it rebounds to 1,240–1,260. First target: around 1,170. Short-squeeze risk is highest here, so stop-losses must be strictly observed.

Coming days
10/12 Mon: U.S. bond markets closed
10/13: Fed’s Waller speaks
10/14 Wed 20:30: U.S. September CPI; no new positions from 18:30 to 22:30
10/15 Thu 20:30: U.S. September PPI; no new positions from 18:30 to 22:30
10/16 Fri around 16:00: Deribit weekly expiry; no new positions from 14:00 to 18:00
Further ahead: 10/20 ZEC NU7 decision; 10/27–28 Fed rate decision meeting; 10/30 major monthly options expiry
#btc

Today’s outlook
$BTC Short again if it rebounds to 83,235–83,500, with a target of 81,700. If it breaks below 79,500, you can also chase the short. No longs today.
$ETH Short again if it rebounds to 2,520–2,545, with a target of 2,440. Don’t chase below 2,450.
$ZEC Short again if it rebounds to 1,246–1,270, with a target of 1,186. Shorts are crowded, so keep stops tight.

Key factors with the biggest impact
1. Trump said he won’t strike Iran before the election. Oil prices pulled back, but the risk has only been postponed.
2. U.S. inflation expectations rose to their highest level since May, keeping markets cautious ahead of the CPI report.
3. After options settlement, BTC surged to around 83,500 before pulling back.
4. BTC and ETH ETFs are still seeing outflows.
5. An application for a Zcash ETF has been filed.
#BTC spot ETFs post their largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months
#BTC☀

How to trade today
$BTC : Expect a rebound to 82,700–83,000; consider shorting then. First target: 80,450; second target: 79,700. You can also wait for the 4H close to break below 79,500, then chase the short; target: 77,000. If the 4H close regains 83,500, take profit and close.
$ETH : Expect a rebound to 2,540–2,585; consider shorting then. First target: 2,440. You can also wait for the 4H close to break below 2,340, then chase the short; target: 2,200. Do not chase a short below 2,450. Near the giant-whale liquidation level, it’s prone to quick spikes (wicking) followed by a sharp rebound.
$ZEC : Expect a rebound to 1,270–1,285; consider shorting then. First target: 1,120. Keep the position size smaller. Do not short after a break. During a sell-off, add on; rebounds may be very sharp.

Next few days
Today 16:00 OKX weekly delivery and Deribit expiration at 22:00 Michigan consumer sentiment initial release (including inflation expectations)
10/12 Monday: US bond market closed
10/14 Wednesday: 20:30 US September CPI (BLS confirmed)
10/15 Thursday: 20:30 US September PPI
10/16 Friday: 16:00 delivery and expiration
10/20 ZEC NU7 decision day; 10/27–28 Fed rate decision
#BTC price action analysis

Today's outlook
$BTC Consider shorting on a rebound to around 84,300, with an initial target of 82,750. Alternatively, wait for a 4H close below 82,700 before chasing the short—but skip it if the 4H RSI is already below 30.
$ETH Consider shorting on a rebound to around 2,640, with an initial target of 2,540. There are large-player liquidation levels near 2,500, so don't chase a breakdown.
$ZEC Consider shorting on a rebound to around 1,368, with an initial target of 1,292. Alternatively, wait for a 4H close below 1,270 before chasing the short; target 1,190.
ETH open interest rose 9.3% even as prices fell. Shorts are crowded, so a rebound could come very sharply.

Coming days
Today 16:00 Funding rate settlement
10/8 20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims
10/9 Friday 16:00 Settlement and options expiration; expect wicks around this time. 22:00 Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
10/14 Wednesday 20:30 U.S. September CPI; don't open new positions from 18:30 to 22:30
#BTC走势分析

Today's reminder
Don't open new positions from 00:00 to 04:00 tonight. Cancel or pause any pending conditional orders during this period.
Leverage: For BTC and ETH, we recommend using no more than 1x; for altcoins, no more than 5x. Make sure the liquidation price remains far away until your stop-loss is triggered.
The next funding fee settlement is today at 16:00. At a funding rate of 0.01% for ETH, SOL, and ZEC, long positions will pay funding fees.
Around Friday's 16:00 delivery and options expiry, sharp price wicks are more likely. #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

These were the biggest influences over the past week
1. $BTC Failed to break higher twice. On 10/5, it reached 86,964, just shy of the late-September high of 87,400, then fell back again. That was the second failed breakout attempt in a week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still around 5.25%, weighing on risk assets.
2. $ETH For the week ending 10/2, BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of $241 million, marking a third consecutive week of inflows. ETH ETFs had net outflows of $138 million, while ZEC-related funds saw their first weekly net outflows, at around $94 million.
3. $ZEC NU7 is now live on the testnet, but the mainnet launch isn’t until 11/5, so this isn’t a near-term positive.
4. $HYPE team tokens unlocking today will be sold over the counter to institutions. There are conflicting reports of 3.75 million and 9.92 million tokens, which haven’t been reconciled yet. The proceeds from the first tranche, about $14.58 million, have reportedly already been used

BTC funding rates have fallen to around zero, so longs aren’t crowded. ZEC has hit the +0.01% cap 12 times in a row. Since 2:30 a.m. today, almost all liquidations in BTC, ETH, and ZEC have been short positions. HYPE is above all its moving averages, but its 4H RSI is already at 67, suggesting it’s overheated in the short term.
#zec #BTC☀

How to look at today’s market
$BTC caught between pressure and support; I won’t do anything at the current price. If there is a pullback to around 84,134 and it holds, then only consider going long with a small position.
$ETH : If there is a pullback to around 2,650 and it holds, then only consider going long with a small position.
$ZEC : Bias is bearish. If it rebounds to around 1,377 but fails to stay above 1,412, or if the 4H close breaks below 1,270, then only consider it.
On 10/5 (Monday) at 22:00, there is the U.S. ISM Services PMI—do not open new trades within the two hours before and after.

Next 7 days
- 10/5 ISM Services PMI
- 10/6 ZEC-NU7 testnet activation
- 10/8 Fed September meeting minutes
- 10/14 U.S. September CPI
#BTC走势分析

The decision back in May—I still haven’t changed it

BTC is now around 81,000, and it looks strong, but for me it’s still a rebound from a high level. It hasn’t entered the bull market stage yet. The daily chart structure points to the next round of the bottom in the 48,000 range.

The pace is still the same:
If it breaks below 57,000, I’ll start adding to my position again.

The switch between bull and bear markets will be faster, and it’ll be cleaner. Let’s witness it together
#BTC走势分析