老李看趋势

$BTC $ETH Just half a month left! Will this 50-year-old stock market curse strike again?

There’s just over half a month to go until the midterm elections.
When I finished going through the historical data, I was honestly sweating. For a full 50 years, whenever it’s been a midterm election year, the market has almost always gone through a brutal washout.

The past records make it pretty clear: in 1974, the market plunged 35%; in 2002, it fell 34%; and even in 2022, it dropped 27%. Even in the relatively mild years, the decline was 8%. That works out to an average drawdown of a whopping 21%. It’s a sword hanging over the market, ready to fall at any moment.

Looking back at where things stand now, I’d say the downturn we’ve seen at the start of this year is little more than an appetizer.

There’s a good chance we’ll see a rebound later on, restoring market sentiment and giving many people the illusion that things are turning around. But if you get carried away and go all in on a bullish outlook, hoping the market will break through its previous high this year, reality will probably teach you a harsh lesson.

Old Li believes we’ll definitely see the previous high again someday, but absolutely not this year.老李专属短线日内合约群#SwitzerlandApprovesFirstBitcoinETF $BNB

$SPCX Don’t wait for a Musk tweet to save the day! Be careful of this rebound!

Many retail investors are still holding on to hope, waiting for a single tweet from Musk to ignite the market and send it soaring. Don’t get carried away just yet—take a moment to look calmly at what the charts are really showing.

SPCX is currently swinging back and forth around 146. This rebound is merely a sentiment recovery following an oversold slump; it certainly doesn’t mean a new bullish uptrend is underway. The 30-day moving average is firmly overhead, and the MACD is close to turning down into negative territory. The resistance is clear.

There are no encouraging signs on the capital-flow front, either. This rally has mostly been driven by short-term speculators riding the buzz around Musk, then quickly cashing out. Large, long-term investors haven’t entered the market to build positions. Buying pressure is gradually fading, while heavy selling pressure looms overhead. If the price comes under pressure, support below could easily give way. Given the current situation, going long carries significantly more risk than going short.

Old Li’s approach is on the cautious side: you could wait for a rebound toward 149 before placing a short order, with a stop-loss above 151 and an initial take-profit target of 143. If the price breaks down further, the previous low at 140 would be the next target. Those willing to take on more risk can also enter a short position at the current price.

If you’re having trouble finding the right entry timing and price 👉老李专属短线日内合约群 Old Li will continue positioning in major coins and intraday-leading altcoins. $BNB #KOSPIFallsMoreThan2%

$SNDK This rebound is just an illusion! Bears have nothing to worry about!

A lot of people panicked yesterday when they saw SanDisk surge, thinking the bulls were making a comeback. But there’s really no need to worry on behalf of the bears.

This sharp-looking rally is essentially just a recovery after being oversold. The bulls simply don’t have the strength to keep it going, and the broader trend remains firmly in the bears’ hands.

Yesterday’s rebound in storage stocks was driven entirely by short-term speculative money. As prices rose, a large number of trapped investors rushed to break even and get out. Big-money investors didn’t keep buying and holding, and follow-up buying has clearly failed to materialize.

Although consumer flash-memory demand has picked up slightly, providing a short-term boost to this rebound, the industry’s prolonged inventory-clearing cycle remains in place. This bit of good news isn’t enough to sustain a major rally or change the overall downward trend.

Old Li’s trading plan: at the current price of 1333, you can open a short position, with a stop-loss at 1385. The first take-profit target is 1310. If the market continues to move lower, the next target is 1270.

If you’re unsure about when or where to enter, 👉老李专属短线日内合约群 Old Li will continue to position in major coins and strong-performing altcoins for intraday trades. $SKHYNIX #CFTCRebutsCMELegalStanceInPerpetualFuturesFight

$ZEC Is Its Glory Days Over? Can the Privacy Sector Leader Still Be Worth Waiting For?

No matter how tough the market gets, you still have to keep doing what needs to be done. It’s like how, no matter how frustrating life gets, you still want to keep going.

ZEC is in exactly the same situation.

It used to be in the spotlight, but now few people talk about it, and the market is gradually leaving it behind.
Is ZEC really beyond saving?

I don’t think so. As the leader in the privacy sector, it deserves a little more patience.

ZEC first touched 1,070, then dipped to 1,040 the day before yesterday. But I believe it won’t be long before a glimmer of hope appears.

As long as it holds the key 1,000 level and doesn’t break below it, then once the broader market recovers, ZEC’s rebound is unlikely to be weak.

But! I need to make my view clear: We can’t yet say that the downtrend is over, and this isn’t the right time to jump in and buy the dip.

You can keep some hope in mind, wait and see, and act when the opportunity arises.

For those who can’t pin down the right time and price to enter, 老李老李专属短线日内合约群 will continue building positions in major coins and strong intraday altcoins.$BNB #ElicePlunges33%InKoreanIPODebut

$ETH Got stuck holding the bag! The root cause of this wave of market weakness has been found!

This morning, I already discussed some of the reasons behind the market downturn with everyone. Today, I’ll explain the remaining key factor in detail. After the latest CPI data came out, concerns about interest rate hikes intensified sharply. Many people are now betting that the Fed will hike rates again in December, and even the possibility of a November hike is being discussed.

If a rate hike comes in December, dollar deposit rates will return to the 4.0% range. Compared with the current domestic rate of 2.0%, it’s easy to imagine how appealing that gap is. The market broadly expects this rate hike to be all but certain.

If rate hikes continue, dollar interest rates could reach 4.25%. You can also see that the U.S. Dollar Index has been climbing lately, jumping straight from 99 to 101—a gain of 2–3%. That’s a substantial move. Based on this trend, the Dollar Index has a good chance of reaching 104.

As long as the dollar remains strong, institutions and many investors will pull their money out of high-risk assets and move it into dollar-denominated assets. Stocks, crypto, and gold will all face the pressure of capital outflows. That’s why markets across the board have weakened recently.

If you’re having trouble timing your entry, 👉老李专属短线日内合约群 Old Li will continue positioning in leading coins and strong intraday altcoins. $BTC $BNB #CryptoVaultDepositsTop$10Billion

$XAU Gold is entering a choppy shakeout phase! Don’t rush to chase longs!

How should you approach gold trading today? Let’s break down the current market action👇

After hitting resistance overnight, gold prices began to pull back, and the daily chart closed with a bearish candle. Although the broader bullish trend remains intact, prices are clearly under short-term pressure. Treasury yields are rising, the US dollar is strengthening, and the market is weighing the Fed’s rate-hike outlook for December. For now, the market is simply chopping around and shaking out positions—there’s no setup for a decisive one-way move.

Prices are currently hovering around 4140, with 4160 as the most important short-term hurdle. Only if prices rebound and hold firmly above this level will the bulls have a chance to open up more upside. If repeated attempts fail to break through, gold will probably turn lower and continue testing support below.

Here’s the trading plan Lao Li has for you:
If you’re looking to go long more conservatively, you can patiently wait for a pullback to the 4110–4120 range before entering. Set your stop-loss at 4100, with the first target at 4155. If prices break through successfully, the next target is 4175. $BNB
老李专属短线日内合约群 #CryptoVaultDepositsTop$10Billion

$SKHYNIX Don't get greedy with this rebound—the signals are already looking weak!

Let’s take a clear look at whether SK Hynix’s rebound still has room to run and where the market stands right now👇

The technicals are already showing plenty of warning signs: the 7-day moving average has turned downward, the 30-day moving average continues to act as resistance, and the MACD has turned negative. Bullish momentum is clearly fading.

During this rebound, major players have largely been selling into strength. There’s no sign of long-term investors stepping in; it’s mostly short-term dip buyers trading back and forth. There simply isn’t enough follow-through to sustain the rally.

The fundamentals aren’t encouraging either. The overcapacity problem in memory chips still hangs over the market, and demand is recovering more slowly than expected. The good news that fueled the previous rally has already been priced in.

Lao Li’s approach is to prioritize a bearish outlook. Around the current price of 918, you could consider entering a short position, with a stop-loss above 955. The first target is 890; if the price breaks lower, the next target is 860.👉老李专属短线日内合约群 $SNDK #CryptoVaultDepositsTop$10Billion $BNB

$BR Don’t rush into shorting! The signs of the project team controlling the market are very clear!

Let’s get straight to the point: BR is absolutely not a good candidate for shorting at this stage.

It quietly started moving up last night. The gains looked unremarkable, but in reality, the move was designed to quietly draw retail traders’ attention. By the time people woke up, it had surged in a single move, wiping out a large number of short positions.

There are two key reasons why the market has been so resilient over the past 24 hours.

First, addresses linked to the project team have been continuously accumulating tokens on-chain. Their efforts to control the market are plain to see, as they keep collecting tokens while riding the market trend.

Second, 18 million tokens are being unlocked today. The market has made a big deal of the unlock, pushing the market cap higher. This is a classic “dragon lifting its head” rally.

The daily chart has closed higher for several consecutive days. At its core, today’s explosive rally looks like a classic pump-and-dump move. We can refer to the previous breakout to a new high: today’s price could easily surge and then hit a top.

But even if you understand this setup, I still don’t recommend casually shorting in the short term. The major on-chain players haven’t withdrawn yet. As long as they’re still in, retail traders who stubbornly short could easily get squeezed repeatedly.

Old Li’s trading plan for everyone 👇
In the short term, simply follow the project team’s momentum and go long with the trend. More conservative traders can wait to enter long in the 0.66‑0.68 range, with an initial target of 0.8.

If you’re unsure about your entry timing or price 👉老李专属短线日内合约群 Old Li will continue positioning in major coins and strong intraday altcoins. $ETH #CryptoVaultDepositsTop$10Billion

$ZEC Can this privacy-sector dark horse take over from ETH? The 1,000 level will decide its fate!

Among the coins that have charted an independent course this year, ZEC is undoubtedly a standout dark horse and a leading name in the privacy sector. So how should you position yourself in ZEC now? My preference is to focus on spot trading. Those looking to speculate on short-term moves can also consider participating with a small futures position.

First, let’s review the price action. After surging to around 1,700 this year, ZEC entered a downward channel, with each successive high lower than the last—a clear sign that it had entered a prolonged consolidation phase. After nearly a month of choppy trading, most of the weaker hands have been shaken out, and the price is now holding firmly in the key support zone between 1,000 and 1,100.

On-chain signals are also worth watching. Large holders have been steadily accumulating, with their positions reaching a total value of $11.69 million. This shows that many institutions and large investors remain bullish on ZEC in the long term.

My strategy 👇
For spot, you can enter with a regular position size around 1,140, with an initial target of 1,350.

You can also go long on futures in line with the trend. If you can hold through the volatility, the target could naturally reach 👉老李专属短线日内合约群 $AKE $BNB #CryptoVaultDepositsTop$10Billion

Someone else’s $ETH is charging toward 3000, while my Ethereum is sprinting straight downhill.

Look at everyone else’s Ethereum: steadily launching an attack on 3000 from 2800.
Now look at the Ethereum I’m holding: straight from 2800 down to 2300—the whole point is to do the exact opposite.

This candlestick chart is as cold as the look on your partner’s face when they’re mad at you, and greener than my boss’s expression when they see the monthly report. It’s headed south and shows no sign of turning back.

Not long ago, I confidently declared I wouldn’t leave until it hit 3000. Then the market reached 2400, and I couldn’t take it anymore—I admitted defeat and bailed.

When other people get in, their sights are set on financial freedom.
When it’s my turn, financial freedom goes into a nosedive—on fast-forward!

Honestly, this latest daily drop in ETH swallowed half a month’s salary. Don’t ask how I’m doing. Let’s just say I’m doing charity work for Ethereum, unpaid. I’ve already reserved a window-side spot on the rooftop. The view really is quite open.

Back to the chart: ETH is currently fluctuating around 2415. 2356 is the recent low, while 2315 is the key strong support on the daily chart.

At this stage, we’re in a choppy bottoming-out phase. It’s fine to hold your spot position, but absolutely don’t get carried away with futures! Make sure to manage your position size. Once it breaks above 2450 on strong volume and holds, then we can talk about a counterattack.

The wind’s strong up on the rooftop. I’m coming down to take a breather first! $BTC $BNB #CryptoVaultDepositsTop$10Billion

$BTC $ETH $SOL Outflows are diverging! Don’t be fooled by the surface-level data and rush to buy the dip!

ETFs are still seeing overall outflows, but one key point is that selling pressure has diverged significantly across different coins.

Bitcoin saw net outflows of 16.87 million. The pace of withdrawals has eased compared with before. The overall market is cautious and waiting for a clear direction.

Ethereum’s situation is much more serious, with net outflows reaching 32.79 million. This time, the outflows came mainly from Fidelity, as institutional risk aversion has surged—the pressure is plain to see.

SOL ETFs saw outflows of just 64,400, making ETF-related selling pressure the lightest among the three.

But here’s an important warning: lower ETF-related pressure doesn’t mean the coin’s price is safe or can’t keep falling. Don’t rush in just because you saw this data.

Old Li’s view is to focus on whether BTC’s rebound can be sustained this time around. ETH is carrying the heaviest burden of outflows, while SOL is relatively more resilient.

Don’t rush to buy the dip at this stage! Be patient and watch ETF flows and leveraged liquidations to see when they stabilize before considering a position.

If you’re unsure about the right time or price to enter 👉老李专属短线日内合约群 Old Li will continue positioning in major coins and strong-performing altcoins for intraday trades.#CryptoVaultDepositsTop$10Billion