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The cryptocurrency market is painted red again today - the decline intensified after a brief rebound last week. But behind the external picture of cascading liquidations and negative headlines, the formation of a familiar scenario may be taking shape, one that has often preceded a significant reversal.

The numbers are indeed staggering: over the past 24 hours, total liquidations surged by 440%, reaching $781 million, with Bitcoin and Ethereum losing positions worth $311 million and $167 million, respectively. The pressure is compounded by a series of alarming signals- from S&P Global's downgrade of Tether to Arthur Hayes' warnings about the stablecoin's risks. The situation is further colored by news of Strategy potentially selling its Bitcoins if key metrics worsen. Against this backdrop, November's $3.5 billion outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs appears as a logical consequence of the market's overall anxiety.

Analyzing the current situation reveals that the primary drivers of the decline appear more psychological and technical than fundamental. While the liquidations are significant, they pale in comparison to October's events, when $20 billion in positions were liquidated in a single day. The Fear and Greed Index, which has dipped below 20 points, has historically often served as an indicator of an approaching bottom.

The key factor to watch in the coming days will likely be the macroeconomic backdrop, rather than technical analysis alone. Polymarket data indicates that the probability of a Fed rate cut in December is now priced at nearly 90%. This potential shift in monetary policy could prove a far more powerful catalyst than the temporary difficulties of individual players.

This correction can be seen as a natural cooldown after the rally. The forming "double bottom" pattern near the $80,494 level could lay the technical groundwork for a recovery, especially against the backdrop of a potential Fed rate cut and seasonal tailwinds. This year, Santa might bring the market not just gifts, but the much-needed liquidity.
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