puppies多多多

Regarding the term "crash", I want to complain a bit 💥

These past few days, whenever BTC drops by 3% or 5%, a certain word immediately appears in the comments: crash.
But if you think about it calmly, if the kind of halving and continuous plummeting in 2022 is called a crash, then this little fluctuation now can at most be considered "the market is in a bad mood" #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察

The media also loves this term because it's exciting and eye-catching:

"Crash is imminent!"

"Straight to 50k!" #加密市场反弹
Such headlines can indeed attract clicks, but they don't really help with actual operations; they only amplify everyone's emotions.

The reality is:

The big drop in November can indeed be called a "phase crash" because leverage + ETF funds hit the brakes together;

Now, it's more about a relatively gentle repricing on that basis, with more consolidation intervals and fewer extreme candlesticks.

Of course, we can't just ignore it because "it hasn't reached the halving level":
For many high-leverage players, a 10%-15% fluctuation is already deadly;
For long-term holders, whether they can still withstand these pullbacks in between is also a test.

So, I now try to say "crash" less often and ask myself more in terms of position:
"If another 10% bearish candlestick comes, can my mindset and leverage withstand it?"

Look at the chart casually, but think seriously about the position.🤝
This does not constitute investment advice, just a pure complaint. $BTC
$SOL

《Yen Arbitrage: From 'Free Interest' to 'Notified Rent Increase'》

For a long time, the image of yen arbitrage in the financial circle was almost that of a 'freebie representative':
Interest rates close to zero, everyone borrows yen to exchange for dollars, buys stocks, buys bonds, and conveniently adds some crypto, earning a dual profit from interest differentials + asset appreciation.

However, the inflation + yen depreciation in 2025 has cornered the Bank of Japan, and the market now generally expects it to raise interest rates to 0.75%, after which it will gradually move higher. For those accustomed to 'freebies', this is no longer a simple parameter adjustment, but rather a formal notice from the landlord: 'Starting next month, the rent will increase.'

When financing costs rise, yen arbitrage positions will either reduce holdings or reallocate, and the pile of risky assets in hand will inevitably be adjusted, which naturally includes BTC, ETH, and a bunch of highly volatile currencies. The lesson from 2024 has already proven: this cross-market deleveraging is not insignificant.

So, the key question now may not be 'Will Japan raise by 0.25%?', but rather:
When the carry business is no longer so easy to do, which high-leverage positions will be pushed to the door first, ringing the bell for 'please settle up'?

No one can guarantee how the market will move, but at least one thing is certain:
Risky assets raised on 'free interest differentials' may have to undergo several rounds of adjustment before getting used to rising rents.
#日元套利交易 #BTC #ETH走势分析 $BTC
$ETH

How does USDD's over-collateralization make users 'see' it?
Many friends mention stablecoins and their first reaction is: will it de-peg? Will it replay the stories of certain algorithmic coins? Therefore, this time I specifically reviewed the design of @USDD - Decentralized USD from the perspective of 'risk control and transparency'.

USDD 2.0 emphasizes 'over-collateralization': that is to say, the total value of the collateral assets locked in the system must be significantly higher than the total circulating amount of USDD in the market. The collateral assets include mainstream crypto assets such as TRX and USDT, and all these assets are not lying in the books of some centralized institution, but are locked in public chain addresses, and anyone can verify the collateralization ratio and asset scale through the official transparency page and blockchain explorer.

When the price of USDD deviates from 1 dollar, two forces come into play: one is arbitrageurs who use mechanisms like the Peg Stability Module to exchange between different stablecoins and 'move' the price back to the pegged range; the second is that the reserve party can conduct similar 'open market operations' in the public market, adjusting liquidity and mitigating the impact of extreme sentiment.

Of course, any system has risks, and over-collateralization does not mean absolute invincibility. But for ordinary users, the key is: can you check the collateral assets, collateralization ratio, and historical volatility yourself, rather than completely relying on an annual audit report or a statement from some institution saying 'we have no problems'? USDD is on a path of 'laying these pieces of information out for you to see'. Which one would you trust more? #USDD to see trust.

Open short or open long🐮#lunc

cow🐮

Why is this a "transformational level" rather than just a regular positive news?

Many people only see one sentence when they read the news:
"Binance has obtained the world's first comprehensive cryptocurrency license."

But the real transformation lies in these three points:
1) From "can we play" to "how to play compliantly": The rules of the game have become clear, and the overall risk premium in the industry will decrease.
2) From "retail-driven" to "institutional participation": After regulation is clarified, it becomes easier for ETFs, sovereign funds, and bank-level capital to enter.
3) From "single market" to "global bridge": ADGM uses internationally recognized financial standards, which can become a hub for cryptocurrency funds between the East and the West.

This is not a simple positive announcement,
but rather an upgrade of the rules of the game.

1. LUNC has completely separated from Do Kwon
Do Kwon only belongs to the 'early history' of LUNC. Now LUNC is a public chain fully managed by the community, with an independent and clear governance structure, no longer tied to the legal issues of its founder.
2. The media is gradually no longer associating LUNC with lawsuits
After the legal proceedings ended, the news no longer repeatedly mentions the old issues of 'Do Kwon + LUNC'. In the future, the market will evaluate LUNC more from governance, ecological construction, and technological development rather than old cases.
3. Concerns from exchanges and partners have decreased
With no outstanding legal risks, exchanges and institutions are more willing to support LUNC. For them, this chain is safer and more stable in terms of compliance and operations.
4. Ecological labels are more professional and the image is more unified
The narrative of LUNC has become simple:
'Founded by Do Kwon, now operated by a global community.'
With no new lawsuits disturbing the public focus, the brand image will be more confident, clear, and credible.
5. More projects can confidently build on LUNC
With the disappearance of legal uncertainties, developers and enterprises are more willing to build applications, tools, and integrations on LUNC, which is beneficial for innovation, long-term construction, and ecological expansion.

In summary:
Contact: Do Kwon no longer participates in the governance and operations of LUNC;
Impact: His history and cases will still temporarily affect emotions and perceptions, but as the legal phase ends, this negative association will weaken, and LUNC's community attributes will become more prominent.

I need an answer, please tell me "Am I wrong about $LUNA2?"
Is this garbage? Or is it really precious???
#Luna

Before and after Do Kwon's sentencing, how could the market possibly move?

Currently, the entire narrative surrounding Terra is firmly tied to one date: December 11, when Do Kwon is sentenced.

The common paths in the market are:
1️⃣ Pre-sentencing expectations rise:
The sentiment speaks of "the final plot" and "the last chapter game," with funds positioning themselves in advance, driving a chain reaction upward;
2️⃣ Sentencing decision made:
If the sentence is significantly higher/lower than expected, it will trigger a large-scale volatility (either a peak with heavy selling or an instant crash as sentiment collapses);
3️⃣ Post-sentencing cooling period:
Sentiment returns to normal, trading volume drops, and prices often revert to the range of "nobody mentions it and it declines silently."

Suggestion:
If you have already experienced the expected difference: you should gradually reduce your position before the sentencing, rather than waiting for "good news to come out."

If you are only now thinking of participating:
It is more suitable to wait until the sentencing decision is made, wait until the first wave of intense volatility is over, and then see if there is a second segment in the structure;
Absolutely do not use high leverage to make directional bets on the day of sentencing, as the win rate is extremely low.

Example:
If you have 5000 U and want to specifically trade around the Terra event, you can divide it into three parts:
Pre-sentencing position of 1500 U (adjusting with the market);
Post-sentencing observation position of 500–1000 U;
The remaining amount kept in USDT for flexibility, in case the market moves completely against you.

This week can be summed up in one sentence: decisions depend on interest rates, and the market looks to Powell. If the votes are severely split + the rhetoric is hawkish, then it indicates "hawkish rate cuts"; conversely, it may trigger a short-term surge in risk assets. In the short term, the US dollar index and US Treasury fluctuations will rise first, followed by reactions in the cryptocurrency market.
Strategy:
Before the meeting, use a small position to layout a BTC range strategy, and avoid taking big directional bets;
Only follow the first 4-hour level direction after the news is fully settled;
For Puppies-themed plays, treat them as pure sentiment, and strictly prohibit going all-in to gamble on a single meeting.

Treating cryptocurrencies as a type of high Beta risk asset is more objective—interest rates are falling, overall risk appetite is increasing, high Beta assets have larger fluctuations, but also bigger drawdowns. For investors, a rate cut does not equal risk-free; instead, greater emphasis should be placed on volatility management. Recommendation: set a clear maximum drawdown line (e.g., 20–25% must reduce positions), use spot + a small amount of low leverage contracts to increase win rates, rather than simply amplifying leverage to bet on direction.

$ZEC Long and Short Position Map: 329–345 vs 392–426
If we view the current movement of ZEC as a positional battle:
329–345 is the bullish defense zone; if it drops here without a significant breakout, it indicates there are buyers below;
392–426 is the bearish defense zone; if it rises here with significant volume but cannot hold, it indicates there are sellers above.

The strategy for contracts is:
Approach the bullish position, see a stop-loss signal → take a small position long;
Charge into the bearish position, see a stagnation signal → prioritize reducing longs, and consider shorting based on the situation.

The real challenge is not being unable to understand the chart, but whether one can strictly execute their trading plan in these two zones.

How many times has Perp DEX increased in a year? Where do HYPE and ASTER stand?
In this round, the Perp DEX sector has been elevated from a niche track to the main line of DeFi, with the overall market value increasing several times in a year, no longer a corner that attracts no attention.

On the leading side, Hyperliquid's HYPE has basically completed a round of 'from skepticism to FOMO' bull run, calculating from the bottom it is a standard tenfold stock, now fluctuating at high levels, both expensive and strong.

On the new entrant ASTER side, after its launch, it surged directly, the lowest point is now also around the tenfold range, but for the funds that bought in at the high of 2U, the pullback feels quite heavy.

A question:
Now that you're getting into Perp DEX, would you prefer to be part of the 'leading premium' HYPE faction or the 'growth betting' ASTER faction?

ETH fell to $2700, is it time to buy?
#ETH走势分析 This wave of ETH has dropped sharply, falling from $3000 to $2700 in just a few days. It seems the market is adjusting, but there are also many opportunities. As the Fusaka upgrade approaches, ETH's technical outlook remains strong, and it is still worth holding long-term. A drop does not mean there are no opportunities; on the contrary, the lower the valley, the greater the chance to buy at a super low price! If you have the funds ready, now is the time to seize this 'golden entry point' after the drop! In the short term, the support level is $2700, and the resistance level for a rebound is $3200, with great potential expected.

The future is bright👌🏻 Vanguard recently announced that it will allow its clients to trade cryptocurrency ETFs and mutual funds, a shift that reveals the trend of digital assets gradually becoming mainstream. As an asset management company that has held a cautious attitude towards cryptocurrencies for a long time, Vanguard's decision undoubtedly reflects the company's recognition of the maturing cryptocurrency market. Previously, Vanguard maintained a relatively conservative stance compared to other large asset management firms (such as BlackRock and Fidelity), avoiding the inclusion of digital assets in its traditional investment portfolio.

Vanguard's brokerage and investment head Andrew Kadjeski mentioned in an interview that cryptocurrency-related funds have demonstrated strong resilience amid market fluctuations over the past few years, effectively responding to market uncertainties. This has given Vanguard the confidence to incorporate such funds into its investment product line. Kadjeski emphasized that as investor preferences change, offering cryptocurrency ETFs and mutual funds has become a necessary step to meet market demand.

Nevertheless, Vanguard remains highly cautious about cryptocurrencies, stating that it will strictly select funds that meet the requirements of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and avoid supporting highly speculative cryptocurrency products. This move indicates that, despite the enormous market potential of cryptocurrencies, Vanguard still adheres to its conservative investment philosophy, which is to provide clients with relatively controlled risk and compliant investment options.

This strategy adjustment is both a response to market demand and an acknowledgment of the gradual entry of digital assets into the mainstream financial system. With the widespread recognition of cryptocurrency ETFs globally, Vanguard's move may encourage more traditional financial institutions to join this field, further promoting the popularization and standardization of digital assets #加密市场回调 #BinanceBlockchainWeek $BNB

As an ordinary person, I prefer the 'sense of security' approach:
I don't gamble with my life or go all-in; I treat it as a serious side business.
I slowly learn how to find low-risk arbitrage opportunities,
and then invest the money I've earned into quality assets that I understand, allowing time to help me compound my returns.
If I can consistently achieve an annualized return of around 10%, having an extra income each year that's similar to my salary would already be quite appealing #加密市场观察 $BTC

On the surface, it's about eating barbecue and drinking beer.
In reality, my phone is filled with DOGE K-line charts.
A friend asked me, 'Aren't you tired of looking at these charts every day?'
I said, 'It's more tiring not to look; at least by watching, I can prevent losses in advance.'
The daily life of people in the crypto world:
On one hand, thinking 'I hope to achieve financial freedom soon,'
On the other hand, keeping an eye on the prices so I don't lose my dinner money.😞
#加密市场观察

BNB Observation Post. It's quite awkward to go long or short at this position, and there is a high probability that it will drop again. I didn't sleep from around 1 to 3 AM last night, observing whether there were opportunities to go long. Later, when a bullish engulfing pattern appeared for the second time, I took a long position but still hit the stop loss. Therefore, for these major cryptocurrencies, it's best to stay out of the market and observe. Order management - position management - risk management. #Binance Futures Live Trading

The U.S. government has resumed operations, and market sentiment has improved. What kind of logic is hidden behind this round of cryptocurrency market activity? Can it really create new wealth stories?
Previously suppressed by negative factors, Bitcoin and Ethereum have entered a relatively low range after a correction, and as liquidity gradually recovers, short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rise. Bitcoin may attempt to challenge the 110,000 level again, and Ethereum may also return to around 4,500. If subsequent news remains stable, altcoins may welcome rotation opportunities before the end of the year, and some varieties may see considerable gains.
This round of adjustment has also released some weekly level pressure in advance. If sentiment continues to warm up, the market is expected to extend to the end of the year. However, it should be noted that once Bitcoin breaks through the 130,000 barrier, market enthusiasm may approach a peak, so it is advisable to plan positions in advance and gradually adjust holdings during the rotation. After 2026, potential weakening risks should be monitored.