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its balance sheet at 4:30 PM ET today, and this data point could set the direction for crypto in the short term.Why it matters?The Fed’s balance sheet reflects liquidity conditions — and crypto reacts fast when liquidity shifts.
🔍 KEY SCENARIOS TO WATCH
🟢 Above $6.53T→ Liquidity expanding→ Risk assets ignite→ Crypto could accelerate sharply upward
🟡 Around $6.53T→ Neutral liquidity→ Sideways price action→ Choppy, range-bound markets🔴
Below $6.49T→ Liquidity tightening→ Risk-off sentiment→ Crypto may see a swift pullback⚠️
Volatility is expected either way.Leverage-heavy positions are most at risk during the release window.
👀 ALTS TO WATCH CLOSELY• $SOL — momentum-sensitive• $XRP — liquidity-driven moves• $SUI — reacts fast to macro shifts📌
Smart traders wait for confirmation, not headlines.
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The Bank of Japan has officially hiked interest rates to 0.75%, a 30-year high. While this sounds like boring traditional finance news, it is the primary driver behind the current market chop. Here is the breakdown for crypto traders:

Why the Market is Bleeding

Investors have spent years borrowing cheap Yen to buy risk assets (like Crypto). That "free money" tap just got turned off. As borrowing gets expensive, liquidity leaves the market, creating short-term bearish pressure.

📉 Bitcoin Outlook

Because liquidity is drying up, we expect $BTC to face downside pressure this week.

• Target: A retest of the $70,000 zone is highly likely.

• The Play: Do not panic sell. This drop is arguably the best buying opportunity of the quarter.

🗓️ WHATS OUR Game Plan

1. Wait: Let the volatility settle over the next few days.

2. Buy: Treat the late December dip as a heavy accumulation zone.

3. Profit: We expect a violent pump starting in January, with profit targets set for mid-month.

Stay patient and manage your risk. We will update you with precise entry signals as the setup develops.
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December 18, 2025 — Renowned investor and Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary, widely known as "Mr. Wonderful," has reportedly shifted his cryptocurrency strategy, narrowing his focus almost exclusively to the market's two largest assets: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

In recent statements, O’Leary revealed that he has exited nearly all of his altcoin positions. This "cleansing" of his portfolio comes as he anticipates a major turning point in the U.S. regulatory landscape, specifically pointing toward the potential passage of the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025).

Strategic Consolidation

O’Leary’s decision to dump smaller tokens reflects his belief that institutional capital is waiting for defined rules before entering the space at scale. According to O'Leary, institutional allocators will likely only target assets that meet strict compliance and liquidity standards—criteria he believes only Bitcoin and Ethereum currently satisfy.
The regulatory transformation... is about to redraw the map — and the vast majority of altcoins won’t be part of the future," O’Leary remarked during a recent interview.
$BTC $ETH
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Donald trump just made a tweet that about some big announcement at 9:00 PM ET today
Stay higly alert as we know when trump speaks the market shakes

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The clock is ticking for Bitcoin investors. As the year 2025 hurtles toward its end, selling pressure is intensifying, pushing BTC down 4% in 24 hours and almost 10% in the last month. The central drama isn't about minor ups and downs—it's about a single, critical long-term level that could decide Bitcoin's fate for the cycle ahead.

The Make-or-Break Marker: The 2-Year SMA

Price structure and cycle analysis are converging on one zone: the 2-Year Simple Moving Average (2Y SMA), currently hovering near $82,800.

This isn't just arbitrary support; it is one of Bitcoin's most important cycle markers.

While the 2Y SMA is calculated using daily data, its power lies in its monthly closing interpretation. What matters is not intraday volatility, but where the December monthly candle closes.

The Historical Warning

History offers a stern warning:

• The last time Bitcoin's price dropped and closed beneath the 2Y SMA (mid-2022), it signaled a deep structural breakdown, leading to an additional 51% correction.

That is why December 31st is so crucial. A monthly close below $82,800 will print an official, confirmed breakdown signal used by analysts globally to declare a shift from a long-term trend hold to deeper structural weakness. Once that candle closes, the opportunity to defend the line is gone.

Why the Defense is Stressful: Long-Term Holders Are Selling

The technical pressure is amplified by growing stress beneath the surface, as shown by on-chain data.

The most resilient group of investors—Long-Term Holders (LTHs), defined as wallets holding BTC for over 155 days—are accelerating their selling activity.

Their net outflows have skyrocketed by over 130% in just two weeks this month, jumping from roughly 116,000 BTC to nearly 269,000 BTC by mid-December.
When the strongest hands sell into weakness, the margin for error at critical support zones vanishes.

Defining the Future: Breakdown vs. Rebound

Bitcoin is currently trapped between this long-term cycle support and escalating LTH selling pressure.
conclusion👇:
To avoid a swift 15% drop and the confirmation of an extended bearish phase, Bitcoin must hold the $82,800 line until the final bell rings on December 31st.
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