A李乘峰-

Keep your sights higher than your surroundings, and let your actions speak for themselves.

Yes, you’re not mistaken following me, Li Chengfeng. This Monday, I publicly took a long position on KND, hitting 4100 points again.

Strong traders don’t need to say much; the candlestick charts will tell you the story! $BTC #稳定币占比上升BTC主导地位下滑

$SNDK SanDisk’s this “needle”—is it an immortal’s finger pointing the way, or the last flicker of a multi-head market before a drop?

Brothers, this morning that needle made everyone’s heart tighten. In the early hours, it was pulled straight up from around 1700 like plucking green onions from the ground—one stake pushed it to 1775—then it quickly fell back. This kind of move makes people really unsure: is it a long trap before a major sell-off (baiting longs), or is it the final kick before lifting prices—just a probing test?

First, the conclusion: this is most likely a “bullish strength test,” and the northbound trend hasn’t ended yet.

This rally’s logic is pretty solid—it’s not just a simple con:

1. Institutions are still buying: SanDisk spent $4.5 billion last quarter to repurchase shares. Last week it also approved another $14 billion in new authorization. In total, there are still $15.5 billion of “ammo” left—about 8% of the company’s share capital to be bought back.
2. Analysts are collectively bullish: the institutional consensus target price is around 2000. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan’s target prices are both above 2000. In plain terms, at the current price, institutions still consider it cheap.
3. The trend has turned: from the low at 972, SanDisk has already formed an upward channel. Technically, the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1673 has been broken. The next 0.618 level is near 1838.

So what about that needle just now?
The bulls ran into resistance around 1775, choosing to take profits or close positions. That needle is telling everyone that chasing higher in the short term isn’t worth it—you can easily get hung up on a tree. If 1700–1720 can hold, then this needle is an “immortal’s finger,” and there may be more meat to come.

Entry thinking:
With this kind of market, it’s better to miss than to make a wrong move.

Chasing longs (for高手, advanced players): If during the session it breaks and holds above the 1700 integer level with volume, chase from the right side. Take profit is not the focus; set a stop-loss at 1680, target 1750–1775.

Shorting (higher risk): If around 1775 it keeps getting hammered, you can try a low-size short position. Set stop-loss at 1790, and look toward 1700. But if you’re shorting just because it poked the top against the trend, weigh it carefully.

For these kinds of actively controlled stocks, volatility is high—participate with a small position size and use strict stop-losses. That’s how you protect your bottom line.

Still, it’s the old line the host always says on the live stream—don’t gamble, and you won’t get blown out. Living is the real truth. #SpaceX股价涨至140美元

Big pie stuck at 63k, today isn’t a reversal—it’s a “hand-switch continuation”

This afternoon, BTC hung at the 63.5k level and softened again: in the last 24h, volume expanded by 45%+, yet it still can’t push above 1%. If you translate this candle, it says one thing—some are placing orders above 63k, while others are picking up below 63k, but nobody is willing to make the first aggressive move.

Three new signals from today:

Spot ETF: On 8/14, it saw net outflows of 57.63 million, already withdrawing for three straight days; IBIT had a single-day redemption of 55.51 million. Last week, the full-week flow flipped from net inflow of 865 million to net outflow of 390 million—institutions’ pacing is clearly tightening.

On-chain: In the past 24h, centralized exchanges saw net outflows of 950 BTC. Long-term whales are moving funds to cold wallets; but Jump Crypto this week transferred 1,560 BTC to Binance and still has 1,410 standing by—quant players haven’t fully exited yet.

Macro: DXY is 99.66, 10Y is 4.68%. Before the Nasdaq reacts ahead of the 8/19 minutes, risk assets are all waiting for “hawk or dove.”

So the main story today isn’t “bull returns.” It’s about waiting for direction inside the compression range of 62.5k–64.45k. Only when volume can break and hold from 63.5k to 64.5k is there a real setup. If it breaks below 62.5k, then the lower track of the 61.5k channel will need to be tested once.$BTC #SpaceX股价涨至140美元 #标普500财报超预期

Morning big-bun clearly signals the bullish direction, with the first target at 638.
Intraday price action matches the morning strategy analysis; it smoothly reached the area near the target level. Pressure-testing at 637–638; once the price breaks through and stabilizes, the bulls will likely continue, targeting 645.
Based on the current market analysis, it’s suggested to close part of the position at this level to lock in the profits first. $BTC #SpaceX股价涨至140美元 #美国拟迫各国在美中AI阵营选边

【Gold】$XAU Yellow croaker. On Monday morning, achieved three consecutive wins again; the low level held and didn’t break—just a bit regrettable for missing the chance to escape at the high point, but overall the result is still pretty good! Combining with the trades from last week, not a single loss so far. Continue like this this week as well!#黄金

【Gold】$XAU Golden fish: Monday morning took another three-in-a-row, as the low wasn’t broken and the short-term trade held. Regrettable to have missed exiting at the high point, but overall the result is still pretty good! Combined with the several trades from last week, none of them have resulted in losses. Continue the good run this week as well! #黄金

【Gold】$XAU After hitting a high of 4450 during the previous week, it encountered concentrated profit-taking and quickly pulled back to the 4310 area, where strong buy-side support stepped in. By the end of the week, it formed a V-shaped repair. It is now in a high-range consolidation and washout phase, with the long/short disagreement becoming notably stronger.

In the earlier period, CPI and PPI inflation data continued to cool off, and market expectations for the Fed’s September rate hikes dropped sharply, providing underlying bullish support for gold in the medium to long term. But in the short term, it is more “buy expectations, sell facts.” After a sharp rise, longs start to take profits and exit, and the pace of the advance slows down.

Technically, the larger daily trend is still in a bullish structure. However, last week’s candle closed with a long upper wick, showing evident selling pressure overhead. On the 4-hour chart, a wide-ranging box structure has formed; the lows are gradually lifting, but the upper highs have repeatedly failed to break through. Moving averages are intertwined and flattening, a typical sideways consolidation buildup pattern that waits for the news catalyst to choose a direction. On the hourly chart, frequent wicks and stop-hunts occur back and forth, so short-term chasing orders is not advisable.

In summary, for intraday short-term trading: consider selling on rebounds around 4440. If the key resistance level is not broken, you can take short positions, with a target at 4360. If resistance breaks down, watch for 4300#COW24小时上涨55.77% .

【Ether】Monday’s “No.2” market行情 quick roundup!
The overall market has entered a waiting-and-seeing window ahead of the Fed FOMC meeting minutes. Rate-hike expectations have already been priced in, and the short-term downside effect from “bad news already absorbed” is gradually starting to show. The “No.1” coin has continued to trade sideways and oscillate, while “No.2” has recently clearly demonstrated relatively stronger downside protection. The exchange rate has stabilized and stopped falling, and there is an expectation that capital may rotate from BTC (“big pie”) toward ETH (“auntie/ether”). Once broader market sentiment improves, ETH—being a high-beta asset—will likely rebound with much more upside elasticity than BTC.

Technically speaking, after a round of deep pullback on the daily chart, bearish momentum has clearly weakened. The Bollinger Bands have tightened and converged, and price has started to build a base in a sideways range because it can’t keep falling. On the 4-hour timeframe, it has formed a low-level consolidation-to-recovery structure, with higher lows forming. RSI is gradually repairing upward from a low level, suggesting the technical conditions are in place for a round of rebound and correction.

On the hourly chart, moving averages are gradually curling together and consolidating; as long as there is a volume-backed breakout above nearby resistance, it will open up room for short-term upside.

In summary, for intraday short-term trading, consider buying the pullback in the 1870–1880 range, with a target at 1940.$BTC #标普500财报超预期 #加密初创上半年融资112亿美元

August 17, when the wind rises from the ends of green duckweed; when waves form between slight ripples, good morning on Monday!

Currently, the large “biscuit” continues to shrink in volume and trade in a narrow 627–633 range. Throughout the day, trading volume keeps declining. Neither bulls nor bears have managed to break out with an effective level, so the market has entered a grind-down phase before a turning point. In the short term, repeated stop-and-scan of the range will become the norm.

From a technical perspective: on the daily timeframe, price is trading below the short-term moving averages. The 20–60 day moving averages form a strong resistance band at 633–638. On the hourly timeframe, the short-term range is clear. The oscillation center has shifted slightly lower. Bulls have repeatedly tested the overhead resistance, but failed to stand above it with meaningful volume. Support beneath has gradually moved down, now testing the 625 line. Once a breakdown occurs with increased volume, the room for further pullback will open up even more.

On the macro front: this week does not have any major news likely to significantly sway price action. On Thursday, the initial jobless claims could be the only potential catalyst for a turning point. In addition, spot ETFs have recently again shown phase-specific net outflows. Institutional funds are currently somewhat cautious, with insufficient incremental capital to directly push for a large-scale one-way rally.

In summary, for intraday short-term trading: suggestions are to look for a pullback near 625 to go in (hold), with a target at 638. If the level breaks, look for 645$BTC #美SEC取消加密规则制定会议

On Friday, August 14 (week 8), last night’s PPI inflation data was released. The data came in slightly below expectations, further easing inflationary pressure. This is neutral-to-positive, but the market has already partially priced in the upside.

The US S&P 500 index set a fresh all-time high, with technology stocks collectively rallying. Risk appetite was lifted, providing some emotional support for Bitcoin, but there was no large-scale influx of incremental capital into the crypto market.

BTC is currently maintaining a range-bound consolidation pattern. On the 4-hour timeframe, moving averages are intertwined, keeping the long/short battle balanced. Trading volume has overall shrunk, indicating a phase of consolidation and buildup, without breaking into a one-way trend.

Today’s key focus is the two major levels: 63,100 support and 63,800 resistance. Only an effective breakdown of these key levels would indicate that the market has exited the range.

In summary, the intraday approach should mainly be to sell near the upper end of the range and buy near the lower end, while patiently waiting for signals on the chart—don’t make subjective predictions about a one-way move. $BTC #韩股KOSPI进入技术性牛市

【Gold】$XAU Yellow croaker's recent trading feel is simply unbeatable, yesterday. The current price was at a high point and I shorted to capture over 80 points. The rebound level given this morning was also perfectly on the mark—so tightly. It rebounded starting from 4368, tapped 4400, and then pulled back. Is the momentum starting to feel tired at the top? #黄金

[Gold] The morning has already drawn the first half of the chart for everyone, matching my judgment of the market trend. If you’re holding yesterday’s short orders at the current price, brothers, you can take profit! There’s an 80-point room—enough to have a good drink!
4360-4370 has some support. At this level, you can choose to go long with a small position—one more lot! $XAU #黄金

Yellow croaker $XAU morning bearish looking to catch the pullback for a fix, three straight orders delivered to the door! During this period, the gold market has been so smooth—seven straight wins and I got it all!

The market will reward those who are steadfast in their goals!
The live-price order is indeed trapped, but the price has already come out!
Pullbacks to the lower levels are just giving me a better entry point for more long positions!
In this community, you can always trust me, Li Chengfeng $BTC #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #BTC走势分析

【Gold】Intraday Market Quick Review!
After the CPI data landed, gold executed a fierce consolidation pattern: it first plunged in the short term, then quickly surged upward to test the 4440 area. After topping out, the long positions consolidated profits and closed, and the price slipped back to trade in a range around 4400.
The sell short near the 4400 high area mentioned in yesterday’s live session was also handled with a two-trade, back-and-forth rhythm.
From the chart perspective, the medium-term uptrend on the daily timeframe remains intact. However, on the 4-hour chart, it’s in the repair phase following a high-level overbought condition. The disagreement between bulls and bears has increased: overhead supply pressure is heavy. This is a broadly bullish trend with short-term consolidation and a “washing” move—it is not a one-way, mindless rally.

For intraday short-term operations, if the price pulls back into the 4360–4370 zone without breaking, it can be used for a short-term long. The first target is still 4450. And when the rebound reaches the strong resistance at 4440, that’s our opportunity to enter a short at the high!$XAU #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #黄金

ETF【Ethereum】Intraday Market Quick Overview！
Overall, the pullback by “the second (ETH)” is still smaller than that of “the big one (BTC)”. CPI matches expectations, dispelling concerns about further tightening of monetary policy. The US dollar and US Treasury yields have not continued to strengthen. Initially, the US stock market’s early gains helped risk assets recover, but BTC nonetheless pressed lower. Even the relatively strong “second (ETH)” from yesterday ultimately broke below the 1900 level.

Looking at ETH recently, its upside performance has been better than BTC’s. Therefore, yesterday’s long positions opened at the current price can still be held firmly. As long as it doesn’t break the previous low at 1850, a rebound above 1900 is only a matter of time.

For ETH intraday short-term trading: continue to look for bullish moves. Buy directly on the pullback in the 1860–1870 range, with a target at 1916.$ETH #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉

On Thursday, August 13 (Week 8), after CPI data met expectations and landed, price surged briefly but met resistance at the 645 pressure zone. Bullish momentum quickly faded, and price pulled back to probe down to the 635 level.

The CPI release only removed the downside risk of runaway inflation, but it did not bring an upside surprise in the form of additional rate-cut benefits. It can be considered as “good news already priced in.” After U.S. stocks opened higher, funds in the crypto market chose to take profits. The 4-hour chart has already broken below the short-term moving average, and the short-term trend has shifted to weak, choppy consolidation.

From the market structure, the three lines of the Bollinger Bands have opened downward. The coin price is trading in the middle-to-lower band range. In the near term, there is no further momentum to continue probing lower, and the overall market maintains a consolidation pattern. The 630–632 area has become effective support. An early rebound to around 637 failed and fell back. The previous support at 637–638 has turned into the first resistance zone, with stronger resistance at 645. Only if price can build volume and hold above this level will the upward (bull) trend be able to open further.

In summary, for intraday short-term trading, the suggestion is to wait for a pullback to the 632 support area and then go long on confirmation, targeting 645. $BTC #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #韩股KOSPI涨近5%启动买方侧车

Overall Attention! Good fortune is here.
The current price of the big cake is 63840—go long directly.
Add long at 63200, with defense at 62999.
Target 645; if it breaks, look at 653.
No more talk—just do it! $BTC #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #美OCC称数字资产公司可申请国家银行牌照

【Gold】Evening market trend analysis. In the morning, we provided a high-position short setup; after capturing more than 30 points of upside, there was a rebound and price moved back above 4400.
Based on the technicals, after several consecutive days of aggressive rallies, gold has seen the daily and 4-hour charts enter a severely overbought condition. Bullish momentum is clearly weakening, and selling pressure at higher levels keeps increasing.
Multiple attempts to break above 4420 during the day all met resistance and pulled back, which indicates that:
The main selling pressure overhead is extremely heavy; retail traders chasing longs are getting trapped, and the main players have started distributing positions in batches.
This is not the phase of the main players pushing prices higher, but rather the phase of the main players taking profits at high levels.
Next, let’s look at the macro factors. This round of gold gains mainly relies on “weak nonfarm payrolls and expectations of rate cuts being priced in.”
Once inflation data does not come in weak, all the earlier positives will have already been realized. When good news is fully priced in, it becomes the biggest bearish factor.
In summary, if gold in the evening cannot break the previous high of 4439, then the area above 4400 is a very good short-entry zone. Remember: when entering positions in the evening, make sure to set proper protection!$XAU #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉

Evening big-bread thoughts: after intraday grinding-plate oscillation, the current head (trend) has gradually begun to open up. The hourly line has broken above the upper band and is stabilizing; the MACD forms a golden cross below zero. The head continues to expand with increasing volume. RSI is approaching overbought. Combined with my earlier analysis of evening CPI data, tonight’s BTC is set to see a rebound trend. If it pulls back to 635 and does not break the low, the low-level signal will confirm the head; the target is 653! $BTC #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉