加密大师姐

I’m Senior Sister, an 8-year veteran in the crypto circle. I specialize in digging out hidden pitfalls in the crypto market—taking you straight to the meat with precision!
Invitation code? DM me. I only take brothers who want to make money.!
Listen up with my brothers:
If you profit, the champagne will explode—we’ll party until the break of dawn, adding icing on the cake!
If you lose, I’ll provide ammunition so you can keep acting like a war god and smash the entire market!
Stick with Senior Sister: if we win, we’ll go wild together—if we lose, I’ve got you covered! Crypto legends—we create them with our own hands.

Big Sis publicly called a short on Niu Lai in the group yesterday, with a target of 0.0555. It hit this morning—we captured every bit of the move.

We opened the short near 0.06 yesterday. I said at the time that although a 20% rise in two days looked exciting, the 4-hour chart showed sentiment had clearly peaked. It surged to 0.0634, then got hammered back down within minutes. Each rebound was lower than the last. My analysis in the post was spot-on with today's price action.

From 0.06 down to 0.0555—that's over 7% safely in the bag. Those of you who followed with leverage, do the math and see how much you made on this trade. Feels good, right?

When hype around a meme coin peaks and there aren't enough buyers to take the other side, big holders sell and the price goes right back where it came from. Big Sis read this trade perfectly.

If you followed, post your gains in the comments so I can take a look. If you missed it, don't kick yourself—the next trade is already on my radar. Follow if you want to catch it as soon as it comes.

#牛来 $牛来

Bitcoin Core just disclosed three vulnerabilities all at once. Sounds scary, but actually, they have little to do with the coins you hold.

Core is the software used by most nodes on the Bitcoin network. This time, three bugs were found: one could let someone remotely crash a node, but it only affects Windows, Apple, and BSD systems—Linux is fine. Another could gradually eat up a node’s memory, and the third could potentially corrupt some of the data stored by a node.

All three are about nodes crashing or malfunctioning. None of them can steal coins or alter the ledger. Fixes are already out, with patches released for the 29, 30, 31, and 32 release lines. If you run a node, just upgrade and you’re set.

There’s some background you should know, too. Last week, Core changed its rules. AI is finding vulnerabilities so quickly that, from now on, vulnerabilities will be disclosed earlier than before. Put simply, we’re likely to see more stories like this—not because Bitcoin has suddenly become more fragile.

What really matters is the price. Yesterday I said that if it fell back below 81k, this breakout would turn out to be a fake-out. Bitcoin is at 79.8k now, so it has indeed fallen back below that level. That breakout didn’t hold.

My take is that the drop has nothing to do with the vulnerabilities; Bitcoin just hasn’t properly cleared the 81k hurdle yet. For now, keep an eye on that 79.2k weekend wick. As long as it holds, Bitcoin is still chopping around 80k and will likely take another run at 81k.

If someone’s using these vulnerabilities to scare you into selling, just take it with a grain of salt. #比特币Core发现三个漏洞

Niu Lai is around 0.06 now. I’ve opened a short, with a target of 0.0555 and a stop loss at 0.0638.

A 20% gain in two days looks exciting, but pull up the 4-hour chart and you’ll see that today’s spike to 0.0634 was the peak of this wave of enthusiasm. It was knocked back down just minutes after breaking higher, and each rebound since has been weaker than the last—a classic sign of an exhausted rally. That’s exactly what meme coins are most vulnerable to: hype peaks, buyers can’t keep up, and the big holders who got in earlier start quietly selling. These coins fall faster than anything else; they go right back where they came from, and the 0.055 level is the first stop. If it breaks above 0.0638, that means there’s still another crazy rally in it, and I’ll admit I was wrong. #牛来 $Niu Lai

Google reports earnings after the U.S. market closes today, which is early tomorrow morning for us. Whether Bitcoin can break above $81K depends in no small part on this report.

I specifically told everyone before that $81K is the toughest hurdle right now. Bitcoin is at $80.8K, right at the doorstep. For the past two weeks, Bitcoin has mostly been following U.S. tech stocks: when they dip, it gets dragged down too. Google's earnings are the biggest wild card at the moment.

When people talk about its core business, they mean Google Search. With AI chatbots getting more popular over the past two years, people worry that no one will use Google to search for things anymore—and that ad revenue will go with them.

But the data isn't nearly that alarming. In the first two quarters of this year, Search revenue grew by nearly 20% in one quarter and 17% in the other. AI hasn't eaten into it at all. Google's cloud business is doing even better, growing by more than 80% last quarter.

What really has the market on edge is spending. Google plans to pour nearly $200 billion into AI data centers this year. It spent more than $40 billion in a single quarter last quarter, and its cash flow turned negative for the first time. After its last earnings report, the stock fell more than 7% the next day—that's what spooked investors.

Dachao's take is that Search will probably hold up. Google has beaten profit expectations for eight consecutive quarters. The key thing to watch this time is how much it plans to spend next year. As long as it doesn't ramp up spending aggressively again, tech stocks can breathe a little easier.

If tech stocks catch their breath, Bitcoin will have a chance to get above $81K. The next level to watch is the previous high at $84.6K. Guys, take a look at Google's after-hours action when you get up tomorrow morning.

#谷歌财报能否守住基本盘

QNT is making moves this time—it’s up more than 5% today, and the price has climbed above 207.

Looks like it’s been building up momentum, pushing steadily higher from around 197. The lows keep rising, which suggests the bulls are in control and buyers are stepping in on every pullback.

My strategy is simple: follow the trend and go long around 207. First target is 220; if it holds above that level, it could reach 230. Set a stop just below 197. If it breaks below the previous consolidation range, that means this move was a false breakout—take the loss and get out instead of getting emotionally attached.

One reminder: don’t chase the price or go all in. Manage your position size and keep some powder dry for a pullback. #QNT $QNT

U.S. bank regulators have directly called out small banks, urging community banks to get into issuing stablecoins and offering stablecoin payments. It’s pretty interesting.
The OCC is the agency that oversees national banks in the U.S. On Monday, it posted on Twitter that community banks are welcome to apply to become stablecoin issuers themselves, or set up a subsidiary specifically for that purpose.
Why community banks in particular? Stablecoins are what small banks fear most. Their industry association ran the numbers and estimated that if stablecoins become widespread, community bank lending could shrink by $850 billion, as people move their money out of bank deposits and into stablecoins.
The regulators’ message is now pretty clear: if you’re worried about being put out of business, get in there and issue them yourself.
Last week, the OCC finalized its stablecoin rules. Issuers must hold an equivalent amount of dollars and short-term U.S. Treasuries for every stablecoin issued, so users can redeem them at face value at any time.
There’s another key detail. The original plan was to impose a blanket ban on platforms offering yield on stablecoins. That ban didn’t happen; instead, each case will be reviewed individually. So exchange promotions that pay interest on stablecoin holdings still have a chance.
Dachao’s take is that this is genuinely good news for crypto. If all those small U.S. banks start issuing stablecoins, there’ll only be more money on-chain, and sooner or later some of it will flow into Bitcoin and altcoins. #OCC敦促社区银行进军稳定币支付
$BTC

BitMine added another 10,452 ETH to its stash this week, but to be fair, the news isn’t as exciting as the headline makes it sound.
The company now holds over 6 million ETH, nearly 5% of the entire supply. Its self-imposed target is 5%, and it’s now just a little short.
They’ve been buying every week since last June without missing a week. As ETH has slid over the past year or so, this steady buyer has been there to catch it.
The thing is, once they hit 5%, they probably won’t be buying much anymore. This week, they’ve already started moving money elsewhere: last week, they spent over $45 million buying back their own stock.
There’s a positive side, too. They’ve staked more than 80% of the over 6 million ETH they hold to earn yield, and have no intention of selling it.
So that supply won’t come flooding onto the market. It just means there’ll be one less buyer pushing prices up every week. From here, we’ll have to see whether ETH can attract new buyers.
ETH is now around 2,315 USDT, while Bitcoin is stuck chopping around $80,000. Dachao’s take is that if Bitcoin doesn’t lead the way up, ETH will have a hard time making its own move in the short term. Most likely, it’ll trade sideways for a while.
Tom Lee is still calling it the start of a bull market. But this week, most of his company’s money went toward buying its own stock. Make of that what you will, guys. #BitMine增持10452枚ETH
$ETH

Bitcoin broke below 80K today. Last week, I said in the group that I’d only go long if it held above 80K. That call is now invalidated, and I own it.

We need to talk about next week’s events in advance. The Fed meets on Wednesday to set interest rates, while Q3 GDP and September PCE won’t come out until Thursday morning. The order is reversed.

In our time zone, the decision comes at 2 a.m. Thursday, and the two data releases are at 8:30 p.m. Thursday—that’s an eighteen-and-a-half-hour gap. So Thursday isn’t one event; it’s two. If you’re still holding a position when the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday, you’re effectively carrying it through the evening release too.

Some people will surely say, “Rate futures are pricing in nearly a 90% chance they’ll hold rates this time, so what’s the worry?” Holding rates is one thing, but it doesn’t mean policy has loosened. Last month’s inflation data moved in the wrong direction, and people at major banks are already saying another hike in October would make sense. And what will really determine the path in December is September’s monthly data on Thursday, not Wednesday’s announcement.

Here are the numbers, plainly. Estimates from several firms put GDP at 2.5% to 3.5%—the economy is doing just fine. Real-time forecasts put core PCE a little above 3%, while the Fed’s target is 2%. That’s a full percentage point apart. With the economy holding up and inflation not coming down, the Fed still has room to keep its foot on the brakes. Oil has also been hovering around 110 these past couple of days. If it doesn’t come down, don’t expect inflation to improve on its own.

I’ll be honest: I don’t know what those two numbers will be. Anyone who claims they do is just bluffing. The only thing I can control is how I size my positions.

One more gripe: I’ve written more about macro this month than anything else, and got the least traffic. Fine, read it or don’t.

So I’m not going long this week. The 86.5K level was tested once in September and once in October, and failed both times—a double top is pretty much confirmed. Now 80K has been lost too, and the next real support below is 75K, September’s low. I won’t add to my position before Thursday’s two releases. If it gets back above 80K and holds, I’ll change my tune. #美国下周将公布Q3GDP和9月PCE

Bitcoin broke below 80,000 today. Last week, I said at the meetup that it had to hold 80,000 for me to stay bullish. That call is off the table now—I own it.

I need to get ahead of next week. The Fed meets on Wednesday to set interest rates, but Q3 GDP and September PCE won't come out until Thursday morning. The order is reversed.

In our time zone, the decision comes at 2 a.m. Thursday, and the two data releases come at 8:30 p.m. Thursday—a gap of eighteen and a half hours. So Thursday isn't one event; it's two. If you're still holding a position when U.S. stocks close on Wednesday, you're effectively taking on the evening's move too.

Some people will surely say, “Rate futures are pricing in nearly a 90% chance they hold steady this time, so what's the problem?” Holding steady is holding steady, but it doesn't mean they've gone dovish. Last month's inflation data came in worse, and people at major banks are already writing that another hike in October would make sense. Besides, what really determines the path in December is September's monthly data on Thursday, not Wednesday's announcement.

Let me lay out the numbers. Estimates from several firms put GDP somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5%—the economy is doing just fine. Real-time forecasts put core PCE a little above 3%, while the Fed's target is 2%—a full percentage point apart. With the economy holding up and inflation not coming down, the Fed still has room to keep tightening. Oil has also been hovering around 110 these past few days. If that doesn't come down, don't expect inflation to sort itself out.

Honestly, I don't know what those two numbers will be. Anyone who says they do is bluffing. The only thing I can control is how I position myself.

One more gripe: this month I've written more about macro than anything else, and it's gotten the least traffic. Fine, read it or don't.

So I'm not going long this week. Price tried to get past 86,500 once in September and once in October, and failed both times; the double top is basically confirmed. Now 80,000 has given way, and the next real support below is 75,000—the September low. I'm not adding to my position before those two numbers come out on Thursday. If it gets back above 80,000 and holds, I'll change my tune. #美国下周将公布Q3GDP和9月PCE

80,000 has broken. It dropped below at 11:05 p.m., hit a low of 79,279, and is now at 79,553, still stuck below.

This is exactly the level I called out in this discussion three days ago. We’ve reached it.

But what I said back then was that it only counted if it dipped below and then recovered. It’s been an hour and a half, and it hasn’t gotten back above 80,000 even once. So I didn’t buy in—not a single share. I followed the other plan I’d laid out.

Some of you might say, “You called the direction right, so how come you’re still not making money?” Fair point. But I wasn’t calling the direction; I was calling the level and the move. We reached the level, but the conditions weren’t met, so I stayed put. If I jumped in now just because I got the direction right, then all the rules I set three days ago would have been pointless.

So what now? 80,000 has turned from support below into resistance overhead. I’ll only start thinking about going long again once it gets back above 80,000 and holds. Until then, I’m staying out and not trying to call the bottom.

When I wrote down those two scenarios three days ago, I honestly didn’t expect the uglier one to play out. #币安神算子

The Dow fell 653 points—that headline sounds pretty scary. But in percentage terms, it’s only 1.2%.

Points stopped being a meaningful unit a long time ago. The Dow is at 52,000 now, so 653 points is just over 1%. Back when it was at 10,000, the same 653 points would have been 6.5%—now that would be a major drop. The higher an index climbs, the less those points mean, but the media still loves using them in headlines because the numbers look big. And with U.S. markets closed over the weekend, that number can stay trending for two days.

We have even less reason to be spooked by this. BTC has dropped more than 5% in the past three days—that’s over four times the Dow’s move. We watch our own holdings swing around like that every day without batting an eye, then panic when someone else’s market drops just over 1%.

I’m not saying a drop in U.S. stocks doesn’t matter. It’s true that oil prices are weighing on interest rates. But when you watch the markets, make sure you’re looking at the right units. Letting point moves lead you around can make you do something stupid, like selling your own holdings when someone else’s market is down 1%.

BTC is at 80,500 now, about 500 points above 80,000. It’s been grinding away above that level all day without breaking below. That’s the line to watch—not those 653 points. #道指下跌653点

First, let’s be honest: this news has no direct impact on most of us. It’s a procedural reform to how Americans file their taxes.

But there’s one thing worth noting. Officials said they won’t create a separate category for digital assets; going forward, they’ll be treated like ordinary taxable income. In other words, crypto will no longer be a special case for tax purposes. Before, there were no rules, so things were chaotic. Now it’s being folded into the same set of rules. That matters more than the cut in penalties itself.

As for how much the penalties will be reduced, they didn’t say. Officials refused to give a figure on the spot, saying only that they’d be substantially lower than they are now. So anyone calling this a huge positive is cheering for something that doesn’t even have a number attached to it yet. There’s only one concrete improvement: the time to resolve cases will be cut from over a year to under 120 days.

As for the impact on the market, basically none. Procedural news like this won’t move prices. If you’re using it as a reason to buy, you’re just making excuses for yourself. Every time I read about Americans filing taxes, it gives me a headache. At least we don’t have to worry about that.

BTC is at 80,700 now. Early yesterday morning, it turned around after coming within 455 points of 80,000, and now it’s heading down again. The level to watch is that price line, not this news.

</textContent> #IRS降低加密案件税务披露罚款

Three days ago, I posted a number in this thread: BTC at 80,000. If it dips below and bounces back, then it counts. This morning, it bottomed at 80,455—455 points short.

455 points short means it doesn't count. That distinction matters. If I said now that it basically touched the level, I’d be no different from the people calling for BTC to hit 100,000. They could say it’ll get there eventually, too. A level is a level: if it hits, it hits; if it doesn’t, it doesn’t. There’s no “close enough” in between.

Over the past three days, BTC has steadily drifted down from 84,800. It hasn’t climbed back above the high from the early hours of the 22nd. The direction was right. But I wasn’t calling the direction—I called a specific level and a set of actions. Getting the direction right doesn’t earn me any points.

So I haven’t made a single move these past three days. I’m keeping this line in place: if it dips below 80,000 and bounces back, I’ll try a small position; if it can’t bounce back, I’ll admit I was wrong and get out; if it turns down from above, I’ll stay on the sidelines and wait. What I said three days ago is still what I’m doing now.

Come to think of it, I’ve been waiting for this move every day for the past three days. I’ve almost forgotten there are other coins to look at.

</textContent> #币安神算子

That 14% move in pepe happened a little after 8 p.m. last night. It’s already fallen 10% from that high.

Look at the whole day. From yesterday morning’s low to last night’s high a little after 8, it really did surge 16 points—but that move was over during the night. Since then, it’s been grinding lower, and across the full 24 hours, the net gain is now just over four points.

By the time you see this trending, the move’s already gone.

And about it leading the rally: over that same stretch, BTC basically returned to where it started, while pepe is 10% below its high. So much for leading the rally—it actually fell harder on the way back down. That’s how altcoins have always been: first to surge on the way up, and first to retreat on the way down. I still don’t understand how this thing has survived for so many years.

So, should you chase it now? I wouldn’t. The lifeline for this altcoin rebound isn’t pepe at all—it’s BTC. BTC plunged to a little over 80,400 in the early hours, then bounced after coming within just over 400 points of 80,000. It hasn’t hit that level today, but that doesn’t mean the danger’s over. If BTC drops again, altcoins will fall harder.

Buying pepe now means betting that BTC won’t drop any further. I’m not taking that bet.

</textContent> #Pepe上涨14%领涨山寨币反弹

BTC just got slammed. It’s at 80,594 now, just over 500 points away from 80K. Gold also fell back below 4,000 at the same time.

BTC dropped more than 700 points in the past hour—more than it moved in total over the previous dozen-plus hours. That’s what thin weekend trading is like: nothing happens for a while, then it moves faster than anything.

Don’t miss the fact that both moved together. It’s not that something happened to BTC specifically; the same pool of money is pulling out of both at once.

I’ve had my eye on the 80K line for three days, and now we’re about to find out. I’m not changing my view: if it really dips below, first I’ll see whether it can recover. If it can, I’ll try a small position. If it can’t, I’ll admit I was wrong and stay out.

There’s another possibility, too. It could stop a few hundred points above 80K and never break below it. In that case, I’ll keep waiting on the sidelines and do nothing. I won’t act until it reaches my level—that’s what I’ve been doing these past three days.

There probably aren’t many people on the forum right now, either.

It’s only just over 500 points away. Odds are, today’s move will get there.

</textContent> #黄金自7月以来首次跌破4000美元

Hash rate has hit a seven-month high, and both the bulls and the bears are using it to make their case. I’ll lay out both sides.

The bullish argument makes sense. A higher hash rate means a more secure network, and miners continuing to pour money in suggests they aren’t bearish on what’s ahead. There’s nothing wrong with that argument in itself.

I lean the other way, because the machines have changed hands. Big mining companies have cut the hash rate they mine with by more than 20% and shifted to AI hosting. The used machines they freed up have ended up with smaller miners. Total hash rate has gone up, but that doesn’t mean new money has come in. Mining difficulty is still rising, and miners’ margins are getting thinner and thinner.

But there’s one question I need to ask on behalf of the crew: if miners really can’t hold on and start selling their coins, how much could they dump? I ran the numbers. The whole network mines just 450 BTC a day, while daily BTC trading volume is more than 700 times that. Even if miners dumped everything they mined in a day, it would only be a sliver like the one on the left of the chart—not enough to move the market.

So I have to be measured in my conclusion. It’s a signal, not ammunition. It tells you that costs in this industry are rising and smaller players are dropping out, but it doesn’t qualify as a reason to short. Seeing a new hash-rate high and shouting “bullish,” or seeing miners struggle and shouting “bearish”—both mean you’re only looking at half the picture. I want to write this way from now on: first lay out the arguments against my view, then explain why I still see it this way. Anyone can cherry-pick data that supports their own position. It might feel good, but it won’t help you trade.
BTC is at 81,500 now. I’m still waiting for that move down to 80,000.
#比特币算力创七个月新高 #比特币算力创七个月新高

How much does one mining machine actually earn in a day? Let me break down the numbers for you today.

Let’s take a 200T machine that uses 3,500 watts. Based on the current network hashrate and coin price, it brings in $7.5 in gross revenue per day. In places with cheap electricity, the daily power bill is $4.2, leaving half. In places where electricity costs a bit more, the bill is $6.7, leaving less than a dollar. And that’s before factoring in machine depreciation, hosting fees, or who pays for repairs if it breaks down.

The difficulty is also expected to keep rising at the next adjustment, with the two increases adding up to more than 10%. After that, miners with expensive electricity will be mining at a loss.

There are only two options when you’re mining at a loss: shut down or sell your coins. If you shut down, the machine was a waste of money, so most people will sell their coins first.

BTC is at $81,500 now. I was waiting for it to hit $80,000, but even if it really drops below that, I won’t be in a rush to buy a ton.

Now that I’ve done the math, I kind of want to check how much I pay per kilowatt-hour at home, haha. #比特币算力创七个月新高

Brent crude is now over $113 a barrel, up more than 70% in a year. U.S. gasoline topped $4 for the first time this month—something that’s never happened before. Yesterday, Trump invoked a wartime-era law, saying he wants to expand oil production.

This move won’t help in the near term. Restarting and expanding refineries takes at least several months, and the vote is in 12 days. Besides, what’s really driving oil prices isn’t how much the U.S. produces—it’s tankers getting hit around the Strait of Hormuz. The part the White House can control can’t move oil prices, and the part that can move them is beyond its control. This law dates back to the Korean War. Pretty wild that they can still dig it up and use it more than 70 years later.

For us, this matters more than earnings. Record gasoline prices and heating oil costing a lot more than last year—every bit of that goes into CPI. If inflation turns back up, rate cuts are off the table, and BTC has been running on rate-cut expectations this year.

So I need to add a condition to my $80,000 call. Originally, I was going long if it dipped and bounced back. But if oil keeps rising, even if it bounces back, I’ll only try with a small position. I won’t go in big.

</textContent> #特朗普援引国防生产法扩大石油产能

There’s something strange about earnings season this week: two companies both beat expectations, both saw their stock prices fall, and for opposite reasons.

Tesla beat expectations and fell 5% because Musk said they’d keep ramping up investment. IBM also beat expectations and fell 7% because its CEO said customers are starting to do the math on AI’s returns. One got punished for spending money; the other got punished for pointing out that someone else was spending money.

The IBM boss’s exact words were that some AI spending is completely out of control and bringing no returns at all. Hearing that from someone who sells AI services carries more weight than a thousand bearish calls. He’s usually pretty measured when he speaks, but this time he was quite direct, huh?

BTC has been tied to AI stocks this cycle. It fell more than 4% yesterday, hitting a low of 81,000 overnight. It didn’t have much to do with crypto itself; the narrative over there is starting to unravel.

Last night, 80,000 came within 1,000 points of being breached. My view hasn’t changed: if it breaks below and bounces back, I’ll go long; if it can’t bounce back, I’ll admit I was wrong. I’m not doing anything until it reaches that level.

</textContent> #股票财报季