老牛慧眼观市
0 Following
88 Followers
829 Liked
3 Shared
See original
Tonight's biggest suspense of the US CPI: Without month-on-month data, which 'dark lines' should the market focus on?
Tonight's biggest suspense of the US CPI: Without month-on-month data, which 'dark lines' should the market focus on?
On December 18 (Thursday) at 21:30, the US will announce the November 2025 CPI. The market's main expectation is not aggressive: the overall CPI year-on-year is likely to slightly rise from the previous 3.0% to 3.1%, and the core CPI year-on-year is around 3%. On the surface, it seems to be a moderate recovery, but the real complexity of this data lies in the fact that it has been missing the most critical piece of the puzzle from the very beginning: due to the government shutdown affecting data collection, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the release of the October CPI, which in turn means that the November data cannot provide month-on-month changes. After the short-term trend line most needed for inflation judgment is cut off, it is difficult to determine whether price pressures are accelerating, stagnating, or have secretly turned around based solely on year-on-year numbers.
On December 18 (Thursday) at 21:30, the US will announce the November 2025 CPI. The market's main expectation is not aggressive: the overall CPI year-on-year is likely to slightly rise from the previous 3.0% to 3.1%, and the core CPI year-on-year is around 3%. On the surface, it seems to be a moderate recovery, but the real complexity of this data lies in the fact that it has been missing the most critical piece of the puzzle from the very beginning: due to the government shutdown affecting data collection, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the release of the October CPI, which in turn means that the November data cannot provide month-on-month changes. After the short-term trend line most needed for inflation judgment is cut off, it is difficult to determine whether price pressures are accelerating, stagnating, or have secretly turned around based solely on year-on-year numbers.
See original
In the morning, the institutional pressure was relatively strong, and banks were hedging, resulting in a stable market performance. This rhythm is expected to continue in the afternoon, which is a very positive signal for the short-term market.
See original
Japan's interest rate hike is almost confirmed, the real suspense is on Friday: Ueda Kazuo will discuss to what extent the future 'how to hike' will be addressed
Japan's interest rate hike is almost confirmed, the real suspense is on Friday: Ueda Kazuo will discuss to what extent the future 'how to hike' will be addressed
The market's expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this Friday (December 19) and push the policy rate to 0.75% have reached a near-consensus. The rate hike itself increasingly resembles a card that has already been turned over: wage growth remains steady, inflation stays around or above the 2% target for an extended period, and external shocks are assessed to be weaker than previous concerns, giving the Bank of Japan more confidence to move towards the highest interest rate levels in 30 years. The probabilities reflected in overnight index swaps have also pushed the discussion of 'whether to raise rates' to the sidelines; traders and institutions are more concerned about what pace the Bank of Japan intends to continue with after this step.
The market's expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this Friday (December 19) and push the policy rate to 0.75% have reached a near-consensus. The rate hike itself increasingly resembles a card that has already been turned over: wage growth remains steady, inflation stays around or above the 2% target for an extended period, and external shocks are assessed to be weaker than previous concerns, giving the Bank of Japan more confidence to move towards the highest interest rate levels in 30 years. The probabilities reflected in overnight index swaps have also pushed the discussion of 'whether to raise rates' to the sidelines; traders and institutions are more concerned about what pace the Bank of Japan intends to continue with after this step.
See original
Morning opening, the market performed well, and it was gratifying to see the market showing a good performance. Keep it up, and today we can trigger the critical time point. Keep a close eye on the changes in the market's dynamics.
See original
#The Old Cow's Midnight Reflection# The stock market's most secret truth: bubbles are like nooses, and the experts rely on 'sticking to their principles' to protect both their lives and money.
#The Old Cow's Midnight Reflection# The stock market's most secret truth: bubbles are like nooses, and the experts rely on 'sticking to their principles' to protect both their lives and money.
The most frightening thing in the market has never been the volatility itself, but rather how human nature is magnified to the point of losing control during fluctuations. History repeatedly proves: when something is inflated into an opportunity that 'everyone can understand and everyone can profit from,' danger is often already lurking beneath the surface. What you see is prices soaring to the sky, people around you becoming rich overnight, and various 'divine logics' seamlessly explaining the rise; what you don’t see is where the profits come from, who is on the opposite side, when liquidity will be withdrawn, and that once a collapse occurs, the escape routes will disappear at the moment you need them most.
The most frightening thing in the market has never been the volatility itself, but rather how human nature is magnified to the point of losing control during fluctuations. History repeatedly proves: when something is inflated into an opportunity that 'everyone can understand and everyone can profit from,' danger is often already lurking beneath the surface. What you see is prices soaring to the sky, people around you becoming rich overnight, and various 'divine logics' seamlessly explaining the rise; what you don’t see is where the profits come from, who is on the opposite side, when liquidity will be withdrawn, and that once a collapse occurs, the escape routes will disappear at the moment you need them most.
See original
Countdown to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike: Will the US stock market experience another "carry trade liquidation Black Monday"?
Countdown to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike: Will the US stock market experience another "carry trade liquidation Black Monday"?
With the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 18–19 approaching, what the market is most sensitive to is not the 25 basis points itself, but whether the chain of events reminiscent of "the yen suddenly strengthening—carry trades forced to unwind—high-risk assets collectively plummeting" will be triggered again. The intense volatility on August 5, 2024, has led many investors to view a "yen reversal" as a warning signal for risk assets. However, the current atmosphere is distinctly different: the interest rate hike is almost fully priced in, and the focus of panic has shifted from "will they hike" to "how will it move after the hike," especially concerning whether the Bank of Japan will present a future path that is overly hawkish, triggering a new round of capital turmoil.
With the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 18–19 approaching, what the market is most sensitive to is not the 25 basis points itself, but whether the chain of events reminiscent of "the yen suddenly strengthening—carry trades forced to unwind—high-risk assets collectively plummeting" will be triggered again. The intense volatility on August 5, 2024, has led many investors to view a "yen reversal" as a warning signal for risk assets. However, the current atmosphere is distinctly different: the interest rate hike is almost fully priced in, and the focus of panic has shifted from "will they hike" to "how will it move after the hike," especially concerning whether the Bank of Japan will present a future path that is overly hawkish, triggering a new round of capital turmoil.
See original
Silver hits $66: A surge fueled by shortages and new demand
Silver hits $66: A surge fueled by shortages and new demand
On Wednesday in Asia, spot silver continuously broke through the two thresholds of $65 and $66 per ounce, setting a new historical high with an intraday increase of nearly 4%; New York silver futures also surged above $66 per ounce. Unlike gold and platinum, which rose together, silver's upward movement resembles that of a 'leader', with significantly stronger price elasticity and more concentrated market sentiment.
The first driving force behind the acceleration of silver comes from macroeconomic uncertainty. The latest data from the United States presents a contradictory combination of 'strong employment, rising unemployment': 64,000 new jobs in November exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, reaching a multi-year high. This split reading will amplify market divergences regarding economic outlook and policy paths, leading to increased risk aversion and expectations for interest rate cuts. For traders, silver possesses nearly the same safe-haven attributes as gold, while its holding costs are lower, making it easier for capital to quickly flow in when sentiment heats up, forming accelerated trends.
On Wednesday in Asia, spot silver continuously broke through the two thresholds of $65 and $66 per ounce, setting a new historical high with an intraday increase of nearly 4%; New York silver futures also surged above $66 per ounce. Unlike gold and platinum, which rose together, silver's upward movement resembles that of a 'leader', with significantly stronger price elasticity and more concentrated market sentiment.
The first driving force behind the acceleration of silver comes from macroeconomic uncertainty. The latest data from the United States presents a contradictory combination of 'strong employment, rising unemployment': 64,000 new jobs in November exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, reaching a multi-year high. This split reading will amplify market divergences regarding economic outlook and policy paths, leading to increased risk aversion and expectations for interest rate cuts. For traders, silver possesses nearly the same safe-haven attributes as gold, while its holding costs are lower, making it easier for capital to quickly flow in when sentiment heats up, forming accelerated trends.
See original
If you think that the A-shares are being forcibly raised without reading the article, after all, the market's performance is extremely weak. However, when you truly understand and comprehend the theory and know that the distance to the mathematically calculated extreme support below is just a small distance, your answer is exactly the opposite.
Translate
13:40分过后，我们看到了金融和机构，尤其是金融板块的动作，这说明什么？结合昨日晚间文章，是不是心里都有数了？保持下去，能否意味着触底成功？保持下去，将逐步将指数带离短线危险区域，然后再等待什么？现在先看能否保持好下去。
See original
Non-farm payrolls are 'weak' but the script remains unchanged: Wall Street is in an uproar, and the expectations for interest rate cuts are even more complicated
Non-farm payrolls are 'weak' but the script remains unchanged: Wall Street is in an uproar, and the expectations for interest rate cuts are even more complicated
The non-farm payroll report for November released last night further deepened the outline of a 'weakening' U.S. labor market: only 64,000 new jobs were added, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, and there was even a net decrease in employment in October. Generally, this combination would directly push up expectations for interest rate cuts, but the market's immediate feedback was quite twisted. The reason behind this is summed up in two words: distortion. The data release was itself affected by the longest government shutdown in history, and caution has been repeatedly reminded regarding statistical standards, response rates, and errors. Relying solely on this report makes it difficult to determine the Federal Reserve's next steps.
The non-farm payroll report for November released last night further deepened the outline of a 'weakening' U.S. labor market: only 64,000 new jobs were added, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, and there was even a net decrease in employment in October. Generally, this combination would directly push up expectations for interest rate cuts, but the market's immediate feedback was quite twisted. The reason behind this is summed up in two words: distortion. The data release was itself affected by the longest government shutdown in history, and caution has been repeatedly reminded regarding statistical standards, response rates, and errors. Relying solely on this report makes it difficult to determine the Federal Reserve's next steps.
See original
In the morning opening, there was a slight rebound at one point. Combined with what was mentioned in last night's article, we are closely monitoring the performance of financials and institutions. Does this rebound have any significance? Also, referring to what was said during yesterday's morning session, the faster the movement here, the better. If it gets repeatedly twisted, what probability might it increase? #A股#
See original
#Old Cow's Midnight Contemplation# From Spurs 'Taobao' to Small Cap Nuggets: How a Scout Carved Compound Interest into the Bones of Value Investing
#Old Cow's Midnight Contemplation# From Spurs 'Taobao' to Small Cap Nuggets: How a Scout Carved Compound Interest into the Bones of Value Investing
The San Antonio Spurs are often referred to as a miraculous team, not because they are in a small market that struggles to attract superstars, but because they have managed to maintain a strong team level for decades and have won multiple championships. The real secret lies in their organizational methodology. Due to being consistently in the playoffs and championship contention, the Spurs' draft positions are often low, forcing them to choose from a pool of players that seem 'more ordinary.' Additionally, due to the limited appeal of the city, it is difficult to achieve explosive leaps through a single superstar signing; the team can only rely on gradual improvements day by day, allowing players and the system to grow stronger bit by bit. It was in this environment that scout Adam Wilk grew up, later founding Graystone Capital and translating the Spurs' 'treasure hunting logic' into the investment world: avoiding the most crowded paths, focusing on less-researched small caps, and using differentiated insights and long-term patience to earn compound returns. Graystone has achieved over 23% annualized returns in its more than ten years of establishment, and when broken down by attribution, about 60% comes from fundamental misjudgments, approximately 25% from corrections after market emotional overreactions, and about 15% from merger arbitrage opportunities. This structure also reflects his underlying strategy of 'first finding pricing errors, then waiting for corrections to occur.'
The San Antonio Spurs are often referred to as a miraculous team, not because they are in a small market that struggles to attract superstars, but because they have managed to maintain a strong team level for decades and have won multiple championships. The real secret lies in their organizational methodology. Due to being consistently in the playoffs and championship contention, the Spurs' draft positions are often low, forcing them to choose from a pool of players that seem 'more ordinary.' Additionally, due to the limited appeal of the city, it is difficult to achieve explosive leaps through a single superstar signing; the team can only rely on gradual improvements day by day, allowing players and the system to grow stronger bit by bit. It was in this environment that scout Adam Wilk grew up, later founding Graystone Capital and translating the Spurs' 'treasure hunting logic' into the investment world: avoiding the most crowded paths, focusing on less-researched small caps, and using differentiated insights and long-term patience to earn compound returns. Graystone has achieved over 23% annualized returns in its more than ten years of establishment, and when broken down by attribution, about 60% comes from fundamental misjudgments, approximately 25% from corrections after market emotional overreactions, and about 15% from merger arbitrage opportunities. This structure also reflects his underlying strategy of 'first finding pricing errors, then waiting for corrections to occur.'
See original
Non-farm payrolls only increased by 64,000, and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%: U.S. employment is 'dulling,' and rate cut expectations have been reignited
Non-farm payrolls only increased by 64,000, and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%: U.S. employment is 'dulling,' and rate cut expectations have been reignited
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November employment report, showing that non-farm employment increased by only 64,000 in the month, with almost no net growth overall since April this year; the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years. The data itself does not indicate a catastrophic deterioration, but it sufficiently illustrates that employment momentum is dulling, and the market will naturally re-evaluate pricing for subsequent looser policy paths.
The timing of this data release is also unusual. Previously, the federal government shutdown caused delays in data collection and processing for household and establishment surveys, and the October employment report was not released as scheduled. This release is considered 'makeup work,' with higher statistical noise and interpretation difficulties, therefore it is more important to focus on structural changes rather than just looking at a single total.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November employment report, showing that non-farm employment increased by only 64,000 in the month, with almost no net growth overall since April this year; the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years. The data itself does not indicate a catastrophic deterioration, but it sufficiently illustrates that employment momentum is dulling, and the market will naturally re-evaluate pricing for subsequent looser policy paths.
The timing of this data release is also unusual. Previously, the federal government shutdown caused delays in data collection and processing for household and establishment surveys, and the October employment report was not released as scheduled. This release is considered 'makeup work,' with higher statistical noise and interpretation difficulties, therefore it is more important to focus on structural changes rather than just looking at a single total.
Translate
非农今夜补考：温和走弱或成美股助攻，降息预期再被点燃
非农今夜补考：温和走弱或成美股助攻，降息预期再被点燃
由于政府关门导致数据发布推迟，美国11月非农就业报告将在北京时间今晚21:30公布。市场在这份迟到的关键数据前高度紧张，因为它很可能决定接下来一段时间里，美联储降息路径到底是放慢脚步，还是重新加速。
摩根士丹利策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在报告发布前指出，如果就业数据呈现温和疲软的特征，反而可能推动美股走高。核心逻辑在于，就业稍显降温会提升市场对美联储进一步降息的押注，从而改善风险资产的估值环境与情绪边际。
威尔逊的判断落在一个熟悉的市场状态上：宏观数据的好坏，会通过降息预期来反向影响股市。当劳动力市场过于强劲，经济当然更稳，但也会压低明年继续降息的概率，金融条件难以进一步放松；当就业出现温和降温，经济未必立刻转坏，却足以让降息预期抬头，股市就更容易得到资金与估值的双重支撑。
上周三，美联储如市场预期降息25个基点，实现连续三次降息。降息落地后，MSCI全球市场指数创下历史新高。今年以来，在AI热潮叠加货币政策趋松的预期推动下，标普500指数与纳斯达克100指数年内累计涨幅分别约为16%和20%。但近期AI概念股承压，美股三大指数又连续两个交易日集体收跌，资金开始从兴奋切回到对数据与政策节奏的再定价。
在这种背景下，投资者把目光集中到非农报告，希望从就业的强弱与结构变化中寻找线索，用来判断美联储的宽松周期是否正在接近尾声。经济学家的基准预期是：11月非农新增就业约5万个，失业率为4.5%。这组数据更像是劳动力市场在变软，但尚未出现快速恶化的迹象，属于既能解释增长放缓、又能支撑政策继续偏宽松的中间地带。
更重要的是，非农并非唯一的拼图。本周美国还将陆续公布通胀与零售销售等多项经济数据，它们将在很大程度上填补此前政府停摆造成的数据空白，并可能重新塑造市场对美联储降息次数与时间点的预期。数据一旦出现系统性偏冷，宽松预期可能被再次推前；数据若意外偏热，降息定价也可能被迫回撤。
美联储上周的点阵图显示，决策者预计明年仅降息一次、幅度25个基点。但多数华尔街投行依旧维持更激进的判断，普遍认为明年可能降息两次、累计50个基点，只是在具体时间表上存在分歧。摩根士丹利的预测相对靠前，认为降息可能分别发生在明年1月与4月。
在更中期的乐观框架里，花旗策略团队也给出偏多的股市路径：他们最新预计明年美股可能录得两位数涨幅。由Scott Chronert带领的团队进一步给出目标，到2026年底标普500指数有望上涨12%至7700点，理由主要来自企业盈利韧性与货币政策环境偏宽松这两条主线。今晚这份迟到的非农，可能就是把这些叙事推向某一边的第一块多米诺骨牌。
由于政府关门导致数据发布推迟，美国11月非农就业报告将在北京时间今晚21:30公布。市场在这份迟到的关键数据前高度紧张，因为它很可能决定接下来一段时间里，美联储降息路径到底是放慢脚步，还是重新加速。
摩根士丹利策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在报告发布前指出，如果就业数据呈现温和疲软的特征，反而可能推动美股走高。核心逻辑在于，就业稍显降温会提升市场对美联储进一步降息的押注，从而改善风险资产的估值环境与情绪边际。
威尔逊的判断落在一个熟悉的市场状态上：宏观数据的好坏，会通过降息预期来反向影响股市。当劳动力市场过于强劲，经济当然更稳，但也会压低明年继续降息的概率，金融条件难以进一步放松；当就业出现温和降温，经济未必立刻转坏，却足以让降息预期抬头，股市就更容易得到资金与估值的双重支撑。
上周三，美联储如市场预期降息25个基点，实现连续三次降息。降息落地后，MSCI全球市场指数创下历史新高。今年以来，在AI热潮叠加货币政策趋松的预期推动下，标普500指数与纳斯达克100指数年内累计涨幅分别约为16%和20%。但近期AI概念股承压，美股三大指数又连续两个交易日集体收跌，资金开始从兴奋切回到对数据与政策节奏的再定价。
在这种背景下，投资者把目光集中到非农报告，希望从就业的强弱与结构变化中寻找线索，用来判断美联储的宽松周期是否正在接近尾声。经济学家的基准预期是：11月非农新增就业约5万个，失业率为4.5%。这组数据更像是劳动力市场在变软，但尚未出现快速恶化的迹象，属于既能解释增长放缓、又能支撑政策继续偏宽松的中间地带。
更重要的是，非农并非唯一的拼图。本周美国还将陆续公布通胀与零售销售等多项经济数据，它们将在很大程度上填补此前政府停摆造成的数据空白，并可能重新塑造市场对美联储降息次数与时间点的预期。数据一旦出现系统性偏冷，宽松预期可能被再次推前；数据若意外偏热，降息定价也可能被迫回撤。
美联储上周的点阵图显示，决策者预计明年仅降息一次、幅度25个基点。但多数华尔街投行依旧维持更激进的判断，普遍认为明年可能降息两次、累计50个基点，只是在具体时间表上存在分歧。摩根士丹利的预测相对靠前，认为降息可能分别发生在明年1月与4月。
在更中期的乐观框架里，花旗策略团队也给出偏多的股市路径：他们最新预计明年美股可能录得两位数涨幅。由Scott Chronert带领的团队进一步给出目标，到2026年底标普500指数有望上涨12%至7700点，理由主要来自企业盈利韧性与货币政策环境偏宽松这两条主线。今晚这份迟到的非农，可能就是把这些叙事推向某一边的第一块多米诺骨牌。
See original
After reading the article just now, combined with what I said this morning, has the selling pressure here ended? Not only has it not ended, but what else? It has increased the probability of testing it. That will be the final short-term life-and-death battle.
See original
Asia-Pacific stock markets collectively plunged, with Hangke falling over 2%: The Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve are pushing funds towards defense
Asia-Pacific stock markets collectively plunged, with Hangke falling over 2%: The Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve are pushing funds towards defense
On the morning of December 16, Asia-Pacific equity assets almost all weakened: the Nikkei 225 fell over 1%, the Korean KOSPI dropped nearly 2%; the three major A-share indexes fell in unison, with the ChiNext index's decline exceeding 2% at one point; Hong Kong stocks were also under pressure, with the Hang Seng Index falling nearly 2%, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping over 2%, and the FTSE China A50 futures' decline also expanding to about 1.3%. The 'resonant pullback' of risk assets has quickly shifted market sentiment to cautious.
Volatility has not stopped at the stock market. Crypto assets have once again declined, with Bitcoin dropping below $86,000, while Ethereum has also fallen below the $3,000 mark. Meanwhile, the US dollar index remains in a weak channel, and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury has slightly retreated recently; if combined with relatively strong gold and SOFR still at low levels, the funding style seems to be making a 'survive first' choice: reducing risk, increasing defense, and waiting for uncertainty to settle.
On the morning of December 16, Asia-Pacific equity assets almost all weakened: the Nikkei 225 fell over 1%, the Korean KOSPI dropped nearly 2%; the three major A-share indexes fell in unison, with the ChiNext index's decline exceeding 2% at one point; Hong Kong stocks were also under pressure, with the Hang Seng Index falling nearly 2%, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping over 2%, and the FTSE China A50 futures' decline also expanding to about 1.3%. The 'resonant pullback' of risk assets has quickly shifted market sentiment to cautious.
Volatility has not stopped at the stock market. Crypto assets have once again declined, with Bitcoin dropping below $86,000, while Ethereum has also fallen below the $3,000 mark. Meanwhile, the US dollar index remains in a weak channel, and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury has slightly retreated recently; if combined with relatively strong gold and SOFR still at low levels, the funding style seems to be making a 'survive first' choice: reducing risk, increasing defense, and waiting for uncertainty to settle.
See original
Looking back at what I said a week ago about the key levels, what will happen once the 3844 point is broken? Certainly, pay attention to my wording at that time, it will definitely break the 3816 point, because what is the 3816 point? It is a level visible to anyone, while the 3844 point is a pre-calculated point derived from mathematical precision, something that cannot be seen by the naked eye. Therefore, once the 3844 point is broken in the morning, you should understand that today it will definitely break the 3816 point. This is the first point I want to make, and it was also reiterated over the weekend as a precaution.
The second point, what will likely happen if the 3816 point is broken? It will test the last limit below, which is the least desirable outcome for us. Because once it is effectively broken, it will impact the medium-term trend of the market. But is it certain to happen? Likely, but that is different from the certainty mentioned above. This is the second point I want to make.
The third point, how can we judge between likely and unlikely events? What is the difference? It is not the strength or weakness of market sentiment! Instead, it is the actions of finance and institutions, especially within the financial sector!!!!!!!! At this moment, we must rely on it; we must observe its extremely strong performance in order for unlikely events to occur. Therefore, when you see the 3816 point being broken, any intraday surge you encounter should be analyzed based on the performance of financial machines to determine the nature and significance of the intraday rise.
The second point, what will likely happen if the 3816 point is broken? It will test the last limit below, which is the least desirable outcome for us. Because once it is effectively broken, it will impact the medium-term trend of the market. But is it certain to happen? Likely, but that is different from the certainty mentioned above. This is the second point I want to make.
The third point, how can we judge between likely and unlikely events? What is the difference? It is not the strength or weakness of market sentiment! Instead, it is the actions of finance and institutions, especially within the financial sector!!!!!!!! At this moment, we must rely on it; we must observe its extremely strong performance in order for unlikely events to occur. Therefore, when you see the 3816 point being broken, any intraday surge you encounter should be analyzed based on the performance of financial machines to determine the nature and significance of the intraday rise.
See original
Two Kevins Compete for Position: Hassett's Winning Rate Plummets, Walsh's Comeback Disrupts Expectations for U.S. Treasuries and Stocks
Two Kevins Compete for Position: Hassett's Winning Rate Plummets, Walsh's Comeback Disrupts Expectations for U.S. Treasuries and Stocks
As the current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term is set to end in May next year, discussions about the next Federal Reserve Chairman have suddenly intensified in December. Kevin Hassett, who was previously seen as a frontrunner by outsiders and is the Director of the National Economic Council, has recently faced resistance from some senior figures around Trump, leading to a noticeable shift in the competitive landscape.
This resistance does not manifest as a public denial of Hassett but rather resembles an active endorsement of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh. Reports mentioned that candidate interviews originally scheduled for early December were canceled at one point, and then re-arranged for Walsh; meanwhile, Trump also clearly stated in a media interview that Hassett and Walsh are both leading candidates on the list and emphasized that his voice should be heard, which the market interpreted as the White House wanting to have a stronger say on interest rate issues.
As the current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term is set to end in May next year, discussions about the next Federal Reserve Chairman have suddenly intensified in December. Kevin Hassett, who was previously seen as a frontrunner by outsiders and is the Director of the National Economic Council, has recently faced resistance from some senior figures around Trump, leading to a noticeable shift in the competitive landscape.
This resistance does not manifest as a public denial of Hassett but rather resembles an active endorsement of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh. Reports mentioned that candidate interviews originally scheduled for early December were canceled at one point, and then re-arranged for Walsh; meanwhile, Trump also clearly stated in a media interview that Hassett and Walsh are both leading candidates on the list and emphasized that his voice should be heard, which the market interpreted as the White House wanting to have a stronger say on interest rate issues.
See original
Once the key positions are broken, it is bound to... most likely... the market broke the key position at 3844 points during the morning opening.
See original
Dow Jones hits a new high, tech stocks retreat: A year-end migration of funds from stories to certainty
Dow Jones hits a new high, tech stocks retreat: A year-end migration of funds from stories to certainty
As we approach the end of 2025, the US stock market has displayed a very typical style contrast: the Dow Jones Index has counterintuitively refreshed its historical high at a critical moment, with a group of value-oriented, defensive, and cash flow-centric companies strengthening in the component stocks; on the other hand, star tech stocks and the semiconductor chain saw a noticeable pullback on the same day, with Broadcom, Nvidia, and several chip-related stocks widening their declines, quickly shifting market sentiment. On the surface, it seems like a divergence in gains and losses, but in essence, it resembles a reordering of funds at year-end: pulling some chips out of the high-valuation growth narrative, shifting towards 'visible profits, stable cash flows, and counter-cyclical business models.'
As we approach the end of 2025, the US stock market has displayed a very typical style contrast: the Dow Jones Index has counterintuitively refreshed its historical high at a critical moment, with a group of value-oriented, defensive, and cash flow-centric companies strengthening in the component stocks; on the other hand, star tech stocks and the semiconductor chain saw a noticeable pullback on the same day, with Broadcom, Nvidia, and several chip-related stocks widening their declines, quickly shifting market sentiment. On the surface, it seems like a divergence in gains and losses, but in essence, it resembles a reordering of funds at year-end: pulling some chips out of the high-valuation growth narrative, shifting towards 'visible profits, stable cash flows, and counter-cyclical business models.'
Login to explore more contents