肥猫

The previously issued invitation code was reported and deleted, so let's resend it.

The invitation code is: FEIMAO2025

For newly registered accounts, automatic returns have been set up, once every hour, and for those registered under my invitation code, automatic returns are also enabled.

Now there are support person links available, if you're willing, please leave your uid, and I'll provide you with a support person invitation code. Users registered through your exclusive invitation code can receive normal commission returns, and you can earn 15% (temporarily; if the rate can be increased later, I will also raise it for you). If you're interested, just leave your uid.

Regarding the commission fees, the hidden costs of transactions won't be discussed again; we all understand the proportion it occupies in transaction costs.

Binance does not support changing binding accounts. Currently used accounts cannot add new invitation codes if there was no previous inviter; you can only find a way to register a new account.

The commission rate cannot compete with those who specialize in it. The only comparison is in "after-sales service"; friends who have bound the invitation code can use some small tools for free.

The commission business is only used to maintain the development and maintenance costs of the program and some daily expenses of a family; it doesn't incur much cost with high-frequency, high-leverage trading.

Binance periodically gives out some peripheral gifts, and I also share what I receive with everyone.

I hope for your support, please do not report again; I would be very grateful.

2025-12-5 Daily
Waking up almost at 8 AM after sleeping in··· got up late, went out for a stroll in the evening, didn't want to keep an eye on the market

910-904 is still a very critical position, especially 904

The US stock market hasn't dropped before the opening, it's our own decline, this feeling is even worse. The US stock market opened high before the market, once it drops low, we will be dragged down a bit again. But if we get through tonight, Saturday and Sunday’s daily should normally have a recovery trend, by Sunday it will already be the 7th, FOMC is on the 10th. If there are no surprises, I still suggest reducing some positions before the FOMC, whether it's 1/3 or 1/5 is fine. Even if you really sell at a loss, it's just a part, better than being fully invested and betting on expectations.

The upward V position of the arc bottom can still only be observed at 930-935-940 here.

The market sentiment has become very strange, two bullish candles can create a bullish reversal sentiment, but one bearish candle can shatter the buying confidence. In a bad market situation, it seems that even the number of speakers has decreased, except for those who went to Dubai who are still actively sharing various optimistic messages about the industry's future, it feels like everything has become desolate. The teachers have also shown the kind of family discussions we had during the earlier bear market years, with comments about how we made substantial profits of 25 points on Ethereum and 350 points on Bitcoin, I thought I had returned to 2023.

The time nodes to pay attention to in the second half of the month have not changed, the Japanese interest rate decision on the 18th will see panic sentiment start to affect the market 2~3 days in advance, peaking on the day of the decision, but if they really raise rates, it may not drop much that day; it will reflect on the market the following Monday (based on historical data: July 31 rate hike affected the market on August 5, January 28 rate hike affected the market on February 3). So if the rate is really raised on the 18th, the market will be affected on the morning of the 22nd from 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM.

Christmas is on December 25, and if the holiday effect starts about 3 days in advance, it overlaps with this time, so if it really drops on the 22nd, whether the morning spike can hold is questionable. It’s best to wait for a 3% increase from the 4-hour low to secure a position, then entering after that would be more prudent. However, even if you enter, it will only be a bet on a rebound from an oversold condition, catching a wave of trend, and you still need to exit.

Saying all this seems a bit early, just reminding everyone of the time nodes, not asking you to short the market in place. Don’t blame me if a good news breaks out later and your short position has no stop-loss and gets stuck.

Although, we may need to lower some expectations.

Perhaps the price won't reach around 980 on the daily line, although there is still a chance before the FOMC.

However, this kind of thing has always been about speculating on expectations. After the FOMC, we could see a surge driven by Japan's potential interest rate hike, unless they cut by 50bp. But if they really do that, it could be the last dance of this bull market.

Actually, I would prefer to speculate on expectations, but not cut this month, then keep the 50bp cut for next year. This way, no matter what, this expectation will linger, and the market will still have something to speculate on.

Moreover, I hope Powell doesn't get replaced, because there's a significant chance that could lead to a plunge in the neighboring U.S. stock market. The 'you jump, I jump' scenario is best avoided.

The recent resistance level is 923, but it won't become a heavy resistance level here. Watch closely around 930, 935, and 940.

I hope we can move up a bit more, as there are too many trapped bulls. I hope everyone can break free and hold positions to catch a good bottom in Q1 next year, instead of just waiting to break even.

2025-12-5 Night Line
Revised code all night, upgraded AI analysis station. As a result, I saw that Bitcoin is once again not behaving like a human.

Originally, it was expected to be very careful around the 5th to 6th, and this kind of trend should only appear on the evening of the 5th or during the day on the 6th, but has it been pre-judged by the dog stock?

This is frustrating; the bulls may need to lower some expectations. The expected acceleration in the same direction as the end signal for this segment of the bulls may no longer exist. Next, we need to pay more attention to whether it will form a circular bottom + double top on the 4-hour chart, or a circular bottom + second top (930-935).

If a trend similar to the attached chart appears between the 6th and 10th, and the position is not good, then it's time to cut losses.

The same goes for the bears; just because there is a dip does not mean the bulls are going to crash right there. If your short position is not suitable, and it drops, you should cut some positions, so that when it bounces back, you can still trade, or if you can't find the right position, you can just reduce your holdings.

In November, we estimated that we would choose to run high on Sunday, but a rapid rise occurred on Saturday, and after that, it never rose again. Hopefully, December won't repeat the old path of November.

One can only say that the market is becoming increasingly difficult to predict and fathom; a bunch of celebrities came out at night to shout for Bitcoin's new high, which seems strange when Bitcoin's value is being called out, as if they are shouting for retail investors to take the bait, which is quite unethical.

Let's wait and see; after the 6th, the bulls will need to be increasingly cautious.

910, 904 are important psychological positions for the bulls, especially 904, which is extremely important.

Tonight's consecutive 2 four-hour volume spikes look more like the main force testing the bulls' ability to absorb after a few days of accumulation. There is a probability that in the coming days, they will use good news as cover for profit-taking. If a cluster of good news appears later, but the price does not rise much, you also need to pay attention.

Remind that these uids have abnormal commission returns and will also be reported

Some people are just too idle

If there's really nothing to do, might as well find a cell to sit in

2025-12-4 Daily Line
The big pie hasn't broken out of this triangular convergence yet, but the bottom has been raised. Now the support is back at 925-926, but whether the daily rise will cause BlackRock to pull back again at night is unknown.

Today is the 4th, and there are 6 days until the FOMC meeting. So far, there hasn't been a significant upward trend, and the bulls should still have some time. However, after the 6th and as we approach the 10th, the risk of holding positions increases.

If the chips are not suitable, friends chasing the long positions must be sure to set stop losses; switching positions is more appropriate than holding onto a losing trade.

It's not time to short yet; we still need to wait. If we start testing the top here, it's still a bit early. There's nothing much to see on the daily line for now; let's wait and see what happens in the pre-market of the US stocks.

2025-12-4 Night Line
The big pancake 94 hit 2 times failed, went down to test 925 lost, 920 also lost, the bullish volume is far less than yesterday.

But before the 6th, bulls do not need to be overly anxious, but if on the 5th or 6th, there is another big bullish line or an arc bottom forming as in the attached chart, even if you don't exit, it's best to reduce some positions and not go all in to bet on FOMC expectations.

Non-farm payrolls are nothing much to say, small non-farm small door, big non-farm big door is common sense, pay more attention to the situation of the US stock market after hours from 5 to 8. The positions below are 915-910-904 (904 is a very, very, very important psychological key position for bulls).

From the 4-hour perspective, a not very obvious converging triangle has appeared, and a new 4-hour level direction will be determined by the latest on the 6th.

Be mindful of your own positions, don't be overly optimistic, but also don't be blindly pessimistic, plan ahead.

The second half of the month is Christmas + Japan's monetary policy meeting, looking back at previous times, every time before a rate cut, the dog dealer would 'jump the gun', leaving little time for bulls. After a coordinated acceleration, if a double top or second top appears in the 4-hour, that's our signal to reduce positions.

Have the current candlesticks become this abstract?

2025-12-3 Daily Line
It has risen, and the market is doing quite well.
However, it is worth noting that the 4-hour chart has already 'topped out', and the daily line is currently expected to support around 983. Pay attention to the pullback around 923-925. Today is the 3rd, and so far there are no signs of bullish exhaustion.

I noticed the remarks from various parties, and there's an interesting point everyone should avoid: when the market was in a continuous decline, the flow of funds showed that retail investors were extremely bullish, while the major players were continuously selling. Now, it’s the opposite; retail investors are extremely bearish, while the major players are buying up.

This is not how it’s done on the left side, my friends. The left side is about buying low and selling high. The premise for selling high is that you have previously bought low. There are no long positions at the bottom now, just constantly testing the highs. Who taught you to do it this way on the left side? Isn’t that just going against the trend forever? First, you touch the bottom, continuously losing, and in the end, when the losses become unbearable, you open a short position at the bottom. After being stopped out, you don’t believe it will rise, and you start testing the highs again, all the way until the losses become unbearable, and then finally you flip to a long position, hanging at the top, and when you get stopped out, you start a new round of bottom fishing. Honestly, doing this is worse than donating to Hong Kong, my friend.

If from the 5th to the 6th, a rapid rise in the 4-hour chart shows a strong bullish candle, similar to the one at 8 PM on the 2nd, and if accompanied by a quick reversal to a double top or secondary top pattern, you need to reduce your position. Whether it's reducing by 1/3 or 1/2, in short, reduce a little. It's better than going all in on the market after the 10th. We all hope it goes up, but if the same trend as the interest rate cut in November reappears, profits could drop dramatically.

For those deeply trapped in the spot market, when they see the major coin showing a 4-hour double top or secondary top pattern, those who support coin-based positions can use 1/5 of their position with a stop loss to tentatively lock in a 1x coin-based short position to test if it’s correct. If not, just close it and wait for the next position. If it’s not supporting coin-based positions, consider a small reduction in holdings and gradually do some trading.

Although the large commodity options settlement in the second half of the month could cause maximum harm to the bearish side if it rises above 100,000, the second half of the month is also mixed with the holiday effect of Christmas and the Japanese monetary policy meeting, so it’s indeed not good to be blindly optimistic. It’s better to pay attention to several key time points.

Of course, this isn’t telling you to short... don’t nitpick my words, my friend.

2025-12-2 Night Line Supplement

Tonight is basically just like this, pay attention to the pullback around 905-899. As long as the 4-hour closing line does not break 899, I will not look bearish for now.

Holding long positions, it's not very advisable to determine the pattern at the bottom. On the 5th-6th, if you see a large bullish candle with volume, it’s better to reduce some holdings. Selling a part is better than holding a full position against a drawdown and turning profits into losses.

Little Yellow Hair didn't say anything good tonight, but rather made a slightly bearish comment. Interestingly, the price didn't drop much.

Today, within a day, the market surged several thousand points, with at least a net inflow of over 1 billion in buying pressure. Capital wants to profit; under normal circumstances, they wouldn't push up and then immediately sell off. Otherwise, today's buying would have no meaning. According to normal logic, there is still some upward movement ahead, with significant pressure at 923 and 930, and retail investors are fomo-ing not being able to go up.

I hope tomorrow we can continue to move slowly upwards. The bulls have been suppressed for so long, they should be able to take a breather.

Good night, everyone. I hope tomorrow brings surprises, not shocks.

This trend chart is not very polite, is it? 😂···

This wave is really powerful

In just one day, a desperate counterattack

The bulls will never be slaves

Thank that persistent self, friends

2025-12-2 Night Line

Actions have started, little yellow hair has a speech tonight, even though the content of the speech may not relate to cryptocurrency, I still hope he can say something like, 'Make America Great Again' regarding cryptocurrency.

The resistance levels above are 885 (888), 899, 904.

On the 10th, FOMC, normally speculate on expectations, just go up a bit, it's better to pay attention around the 5th to 6th, if a large bullish line appears, it’s better to take some profit to avoid being caught in a 'rush to the exit'.

I hope little yellow hair does not say anything about replacing Powell tonight; it’s best not to mention anything about moving Powell.

For pullbacks, if the bulls are strong, watch 875, 873; if weaker, holding 863 is also okay, continue to observe...

Here we go again, who can stop him····😂😂😂😂

Unintentionally, I encountered the gossip about a certain big V's fraudulent donation again···

The cryptocurrency world is truly a place where one's identity relies entirely on what one has provided themselves···

2025-12-2日线
It's up, and the repair situation is better than expected...
The lowest point is 838, if we use the previous calculation, the bottom x1.03=863
The ideal situation is a 4-hour pullback to 863 and hold, then the rebound will start from here. The less ideal situation is a pullback to 858 to confirm a stop loss.
An even less ideal situation is BlackRock continuing to sell thousands and thousands, breaking through all levels...

The FOMC meeting is on December 10th, and according to previous practices, there will be some speculation about it starting about 7 days before, today is the 2nd, under normal circumstances, we should see some positive price changes tonight or tomorrow.

Japan's interest rate hike, the probability for December remains low, but high for January. If there is a hike in December, there's no need to panic now, as that meeting will occur after the US FOMC meeting. If you don't like going long, you can patiently wait to speculate on expectations, observe whether Japan will hike rates after a price increase. If they do, based on past practices, the impact on the market will last about 5-7 days, for example, the interest rate hike on July 31, 2024, and the black swan event occurred on August 5th (but in fact, the July pullback started when the big pie touched 704 on the 26th). Then the interest rate hike on January 28, 2025, actually started the pullback on January 23, and the black swan occurred on February 3.

Whether going long or short, there is no real concept of "missing the boat" or being unable to get in.

Just stick to the timeline, enter when it's time, and exit when it's time.

Finally, Grayscale is still quite optimistic 😀

2025-12-1 Night Line

Previously, the allies who bought spot and long contracts here at 869-883 have now turned into enemies due to this wave of decline. The main players are not extending their hands here, and it's hard for retail investors to fomo past this. Furthermore, the sentiment is collapsing even more severely than the prices. Saying to go long feels like calling people to join the national army in '49...

Although I have an ant position at 847, I can't feel optimistic. The first hurdle is 865-869; this is the basis for a short-term stop in decline. Only if it can stay above 865 for 8 hours can we say there's a short-term stop in decline. Crossing here, there's still 883-885 above.

Going long really is challenging. Although you can earn more from the rise than losses from short positions, it's truly exhausting. The hard-earned gains over a few weeks can drop down with just two candles. If you say your mindset isn't affected, it's almost impossible.

This is reflected in my positions as well. I started testing with a needle at 100 before, doubling up on losses, and now I only dare to stay fixed at 100u to enter. After entering, I can't break free from the cost zone, and as it declines, I hit stop losses. Going back and forth like this is truly unbearable.

Let's just endure and see. December 10th is the FOMC meeting. If there are no significant changes in price after the 3rd, then it's truly hopeless. After December, I really don't know what other expectations can be speculated on.

I still think the probability of a rate hike in Japan in December is low, regardless of what they say, but the probability of a rate hike in January is super high. In the first quarter, there's no expectation of rate cuts to speculate on, and in April, there's a crypto tax. If the big players in the dog market rush out again, who knows where they will go.

There’s a large options delivery in the second half of the month, but that date is still 20 days away from now. Distant water cannot quench a nearby fire, and there are too many uncertainties in between to speculate on that expectation for now.

Right now, I just hope that the neighboring U.S. stocks hold up. We've already been like this; if they flood again, there will truly be no hope...

Yesterday I said I would take a picture of the office for everyone. I took it in the afternoon; it's just a small room, quiet and nice. Everyone is welcome to come and play when you have time.

What is seen on social media, this blogger has somewhat taken things out of context. After looking at the chat content, it seems that a certain well-known influencer is fabricating facts and leading people into a shady situation.

However, this has also served as a reminder for teachers: accepting advertisements is not a problem, but one cannot fabricate facts or use insider information to lead people to participate.

After taking the project party's dividends or the losses of the exchange, this behavior is equivalent to fraud...

Drunk, used three small positions to connect the needle, and if I wasn't careful, I got too excited. I just stopped and checked; the wear and tear is already over 4000u, still that familiar dead end, connecting the needle with a super tight stop loss, not taking profits, coming down and getting killed again...

This volume drop followed by a series of ups and downs really wants to kill me..