On December 15, 2025, Ethereum displayed a weak oscillating trend in the evening, with the long and short positions focusing on key intervals. The specific market analysis is as follows:
1. Price performance: On that day, Ethereum once dipped to $3026, and then rebounded. As of 12 PM, the spot price was reported at $3078, with a 24-hour decline of 1.09%, maintaining the psychological level of $3000, demonstrating relative resilience against declines. Previously, it touched $3436 on the 11th before retreating, and has recently been in a state of oscillation and adjustment, with a 24-hour transaction volume reaching 10.62 billion, a turnover rate of 2.86%, and moderate volume release, showing no signs of panic selling.
2. Technical aspects: In the short term, $3000 - $3020 is the core support zone. If it effectively breaks below this level, it may fall to $2940; a rebound would face resistance in the $3175 - $3200 range, where the hourly chart's descending trend line and 100-hour moving average converge, and only reclaiming $3280 can reverse the weak pattern. Furthermore, the daily candlestick has stabilized within the Bollinger Band at $3076 for three consecutive days, indicating a demand for rebound, while the four-hour chart shows strong support below $3050.
3. Market influencing factors: On the bearish side, the market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in January has cooled, global central bank policy remains uncertain, and since October, the total locked amount on the Ethereum chain has decreased by over 20%, with regulatory risks always present, all of which suppress market sentiment. On the bullish side, whales and some institutions continue to accumulate, with over 32.4 million ETH staked reducing circulation, and the Ethereum 'Fusaka' upgrade has optimized network performance, providing certain support for prices.
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On December 15, 2025, the Bitcoin market showed a significant downward trend, primarily driven by macroeconomic bearish factors, with clear bearish signals on the technical front. Meanwhile, the market was fiercely contested between bulls and bears, as detailed below:
1. Price and Market Performance: On that day, Bitcoin fell below the $88,000 mark during trading, reaching a low of $87,967.8, and by the morning of that day, the decline had reached 2.48%. However, the price rebounded in the afternoon, returning to around $89,600 around 1:30 PM. The market suffered severe damage, with $270 million in cryptocurrency contracts liquidated in the past 24 hours, affecting 115,700 people, among which long positions amounted to $230 million in liquidations, far exceeding the amount of liquidated short positions.
2. Macroeconomic Inducements: The significant cooling of expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is the core trigger. Although the Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year last week, Chairman Powell's stance on whether to continue cutting rates in January next year remains ambiguous, with several Fed officials leaning towards maintaining a restrictive policy stance. CME data shows that the market believes there is a 75.6% probability of maintaining interest rates in January next year, and this policy uncertainty has triggered a wave of sell-offs in risk assets, with Bitcoin, being a highly correlated asset, taking the brunt. Additionally, Standard Chartered Bank significantly lowered its Bitcoin target price, reducing the end-of-2025 target from $200,000 to $100,000, further undermining market confidence.
3. Technical Aspects: The daily level recorded three consecutive bearish candles breaking below previous lows, forming a descending N-shaped structure; on the 4-hour level, the MACD double line crossed below the zero line, with the histogram continuously expanding, and the price breaking below multiple moving averages, presenting a multi-timeframe bearish arrangement, with bearish momentum accelerating. However, some indicators also showed positive signals, such as the energy flow indicator displaying signs of a bottom divergence, suggesting that selling pressure may be weakening, and the price rebounding in the afternoon indicated a certain level of support around $88,000.
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