黄得财

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 10, 202#美联储利率决议即将公布 is a key variable affecting the short-term trend of Bitcoin, and its impact depends on the implementation of interest rate cuts, the tone of policy statements, and future guidance on interest rate paths. Different scenarios will bring differentiated market reactions. The specific impacts are as follows:

1. If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points as expected and a dovish signal is released: If the rate cut is based on a decline in inflation and stability in the labor market, and the dot plot suggests continuing rate cuts in 2026, Bitcoin may rise by 10%-15% within a week, hitting the range of $95,000 to $100,000, and may even aim for $120,000. Loose liquidity will reduce the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin while boosting institutional investors' risk appetite, driving funds into the crypto market.
2. If there is no change but a future rate cut signal is released: This "dovish wait-and-see" state will allow Bitcoin to rebound moderately, but the increase will be limited, likely oscillating around $85,000, with specific trends depending on the clarity of future rate cut guidance.
3. If the rate cut is delayed or a hawkish signal is released: If the Federal Reserve delays the rate cut due to sticky inflation, Bitcoin will face selling pressure, potentially dropping to $80,000 or even $75,000, and may enter a prolonged consolidation phase. The market's expectations for loose policies will be disappointed, triggering high-leverage long positions to liquidate, exacerbating the price decline.