学良的理财日记

December 22 morning thoughts
A new week has arrived, and the recent market has shown a typical rhythm: the day session is mainly oscillating, slowly rebounding before the U.S. market opens, and shortly after the U.S. market opens, a downward trend emerges. We still need to pay attention to this pattern this week. The current global situation is complex, with ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and risk aversion sentiment is spreading in the market. Once the situation escalates, the market may experience significant fluctuations, so it is essential to manage risk and position carefully. From a technical perspective, the daily candle for Bitcoin yesterday closed with a long upper and lower shadow, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears in the short term; the hourly price is oscillating narrowly in the 87500-89000 range and is in a consolidation state. The hourly MACD histogram remains negative, with the DIF and DEA diverging downwards, indicating a short-term bearish bias; the RSI value is 46.4, in a neutral slightly weak area, with market sentiment stable but cautious. The price is below the EMA7, and both EMA7 and EMA30 are trending downwards, indicating a short-term bearish outlook; however, it is still operating above the EMA120, and the medium to long-term bullish structure has not been completely destroyed. Overall, recent operational suggestions are to trade within the 85000-90600 range, going long in batches at the lower edge and looking for opportunities to short at the upper edge, while strictly setting stop-losses and controlling positions to cope with potential volatility risks.
Bitcoin 86900-87900 long Target 88900- 89900
Ethereum 2900-2950 long. Target 3030-3080
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #BinanceABCs $BTC $ETH
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December 22 morning thoughts
A new week has arrived, and the recent market has shown a typical rhythm: the day session is mainly oscillating, slowly rebounding before the U.S. market opens, and shortly after the U.S. market opens, a downward trend emerges. We still need to pay attention to this pattern this week. The current global situation is complex, with ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and risk aversion sentiment is spreading in the market. Once the situation escalates, the market may experience significant fluctuations, so it is essential to manage risk and position carefully. From a technical perspective, the daily candle for Bitcoin yesterday closed with a long upper and lower shadow, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears in the short term; the hourly price is oscillating narrowly in the 87500-89000 range and is in a consolidation state. The hourly MACD histogram remains negative, with the DIF and DEA diverging downwards, indicating a short-term bearish bias; the RSI value is 46.4, in a neutral slightly weak area, with market sentiment stable but cautious. The price is below the EMA7, and both EMA7 and EMA30 are trending downwards, indicating a short-term bearish outlook; however, it is still operating above the EMA120, and the medium to long-term bullish structure has not been completely destroyed. Overall, recent operational suggestions are to trade within the 85000-90600 range, going long in batches at the lower edge and looking for opportunities to short at the upper edge, while strictly setting stop-losses and controlling positions to cope with potential volatility risks.
Bitcoin 86900-87900 long Target 88900- 89900
Ethereum 2900-2950 long. Target 3030-3080
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #BinanceABCs $BTC $ETH
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Important events and data forecasts for this week
• Monday (22nd): China's 1-year LPR, November electricity consumption/power generation capacity, UK Q3 GDP final/Current Account; Domestic refined oil price adjustment.
• Tuesday (23rd): US Q3 GDP preliminary + Core PCE + Durable Goods Orders + Industrial Production + Consumer Confidence; RBA minutes.
• Wednesday (24th): US API inventory/Initial Jobless Claims/Oil Drilling; Bank of Canada minutes; Multiple markets close early/half-day trading.
• Thursday (25th, Christmas): Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's speech; 300 billion MLF + 88.3 billion reverse repos maturing; Global multiple markets closed all day, CME/ICE commodity futures suspended trading.
• Friday (26th): Japan's November unemployment rate; Most European/APAC markets continue to remain closed.
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #BinanceABCs $BTC $ETH
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Confirm! The U.S. ends quantitative easing, and the probability of a rate cut in December rises to 91%

Remember on October 29, when Powell warned that a rate cut in December was "not a certainty," the probability of a rate cut was just a pitiful 35%

In my view, this end of QT + rate cut represents a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's policy. It indicates a transition from prioritizing "inflation" to placing more importance on "employment."

The September employment report released on November 20 looks a bit bleak: 119,000 new jobs added is far below the first half of the year, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest in nearly four years.

Once the Federal Reserve shakes off the burden of inflation, there is a chance for rate cuts to move into the fast lane, which is also the biggest hope for 2026......
#BinanceBlockchainWeek #加密市场回调 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH巨鲸增持 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 $BTC $ETH
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The current fluctuation trajectory of the big pie is highly synchronized with the trend of the yen. Behind this phenomenon, the core logic stems from the transmission effect of yen arbitrage trading: Previously, Japan maintained a long-term ultra-low interest rate environment, with borrowing costs nearly zero, and a large number of institutional investors borrowed yen, exchanged it for dollars, and invested in high-risk, high-return assets like the big pie, thus establishing a typical yen arbitrage trading model.

As the Bank of Japan has begun its interest rate hike cycle, the borrowing costs of yen have significantly increased, forcing institutions to accelerate their positions—selling the big pie to convert back to dollars, and then exchanging for yen to repay debts. This has formed a linkage pattern of "yen appreciation (position closure leads to increased yen buying) → big pie facing selling pressure," making the synchronized movement of both trends quite reasonable.

This phenomenon profoundly indicates that the big pie has fully integrated into the global macro liquidity cycle, no longer being an isolated niche market, but rather becoming a "barometer" reflecting the migration of global funds. The biggest risk in the current market is the concentrated position closure of yen arbitrage trading: this type of fund is massive, and once there is a large-scale withdrawal from the big pie market, it will directly trigger sustained downward pressure.

#BinanceBlockchainWeek #加密市场回调 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH巨鲸增持 #ETH走势分析 $BTC $ETH
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Morning Thoughts on May 29
From the in-depth analysis of the current market trends, it can be seen that, at the daily level, the market has recently experienced severe and frequent fluctuations, which strongly reflect the fierce struggle between bulls and bears. Switching to the hourly level, the trend shows a pattern of alternating small bearish and bullish candles. This candlestick formation indicates that, in the short term, the market lacks clear directional guidance, leaning towards a state of adjustment. Moreover, based on the current market sentiment and price performance, the bearish forces are slightly in the lead, resulting in an overall weak trend.

In terms of technical indicators, the MACD indicator at the hourly level continues to operate below the zero axis, with the DIF line and DEA line showing a clear downward divergence, visually indicating that the bearish forces dominate the current market, suppressing price increases. In contrast, the MACD indicator at the daily level, although still below the zero axis, shows that the green bars are gradually shortening, which is a positive signal indicating that the downward momentum of prices is gradually weakening, and there are signs of market stabilization.
Considering the above market trends and various technical indicators, I offer the following trading advice: for short-term trading during the day, I recommend that investors continue to adopt a buy low sell high strategy within the price range of 106000 to 111000 to capture opportunities during price fluctuations. From a broader direction and long-term trend perspective, I remain bullish, believing that after the current phase of consolidation, the market is expected to regain upward momentum and start a new round of rising trends.

Bitcoin: Long at 105500-107500, Target 108500-110000

Ethereum: Long at 2600-2630, Target 2700-2730
#币安HODLer空投SOPH #比特币2025大会 #特朗普媒体科技集团比特币财库 #币安Alpha上新 #巨鲸JamesWynn动态 $BTC
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$ETH
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Morning Thoughts on May 9
After a long two months of dormancy, Ethereum has finally ushered in a strong breakout, with a single-day price increase of over 400 points. This long-awaited upward trend not only brings hope to spot traders but also provides temporary relief for those who have been stuck at high levels. From a technical perspective, the daily candlestick pattern is quite impressive, having broken through key moving averages such as EMA30, EMA60, and EMA80. Currently, it has briefly paused above EMA120 before experiencing a slight pullback, confirming the previous prediction about a corrective rally. It is advised that traders exercise caution when shorting. In the short term, today’s focus should be on two key support levels: first is the 2100 level, which, as the March high, is expected to transition from a resistance level to a support level; second is the EMA80 moving average position. However, the specific entry timing should be flexibly assessed based on the intraday pullback speed. If the market's pullback strength is weak, it may struggle to reach the aforementioned levels. The upper resistance range is concentrated around the EMA120 moving average and the 2250 price level. Once this level is effectively broken, the price may further rise to challenge the new resistance band formed by MA120 and EMA180 moving averages.

From a weekly perspective, Ethereum still faces multiple pressure tests. The current candlestick has not successfully stood above the upper Bollinger band and EMA220 moving average, and the crossover of MA180 and EMA180, along with the resonance range of EMA120 and EMA60, constitutes strong resistance. At the same time, the MACD indicator's fast and slow lines have not yet completed a golden cross pattern, indicating that the market is still in a consolidation phase. Against this backdrop, it is recommended to continue monitoring the correlation between Ethereum and Bitcoin, and to make arrangements only after the upward momentum is further confirmed for greater safety.

Bitcoin: 101500-102500 Long Target 103300-104300

Ethereum: 2100-2150 Long Target 2250-2300
#BTC重返10万 #Stripe稳定币账户 #BTC交易 #美联储FOMC会议 #Pectra升级 $BTC $ETH
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