刘丞相

If you experienced the last crypto bull market, then you definitely remember it—LUNC, which at that time was not called this name, but LUNA. During that round of crazy market, it was a token that many people saw as "changing their fate", with prices skyrocketing and driving countless accounts to add zeros behind their numbers. Some became rich overnight because of it, while others firmly believed that "holding on would lead to financial freedom."
However, as the heat of the bull market receded, not everything left on the beach was pearls. The collapse of LUNA almost became a symbolic event marking the end of the last bull market. Prices fell from three digits to several zeros after the decimal point, market value evaporated like smoke, and the once "champion" instantly became a sacrifice on the altar. Even later when it was renamed LUNC in an attempt to restart, the price seemed to have forever stopped at that near-zero scale.

Today, as soon as I opened the market software, I estimated that many people noticed the increase of ZEC—rising over 12% in a single day, with the price once approaching 400 USDT, and the trading volume suddenly increased, looking quite impressive. Some analyses in the market are also saying that there is capital inflow, positive technical indicators, and even rumors of an ETF, as if it's ready to take off.
But when I calm down and think about it, doesn't this scene seem a bit familiar? A previously quiet coin suddenly pulls out a large bullish candle, accompanied by high trading volume, and various news starts to blow up... This plot is actually not new in the crypto world.

ZEC played an old trick again: just as the price touched around $380, it was suddenly smashed down. Looking at the data, the 24-hour high was 380, and the low went down to 308; this roller coaster ride is really no joke.
The old-timers in the circle understand that ZEC can never be pumped up. Every time there is a slight improvement, once it hits around 380, selling pressure comes in as if it was prearranged, and the price immediately turns downward. Over time, everyone has learned to be smart—take profits at the slightest rise, never fight a protracted battle.
You say it is the leader of privacy coins? The technology is unique? Indeed, ZEC inherently has privacy attributes and had its glory days in the past, occasionally seeing news about institutional interest or collaborations. But the market seems to be skeptical. Looking at the trading data, as soon as the price rises, and the trading volume increases, it is immediately followed by a bearish reversal. Clearly, someone is using the news to offload their holdings, not wanting the price to truly break out.

Whenever the market warms up, there are always some tracks that leap to the surface first, drawing attention like dolphins. This time, tokens related to AI (artificial intelligence) and robotics have once again become the frontrunners, with astonishing gains and a surge of funds, seemingly telling us that the story of the next bull market may have already been written.
Taking the recently popular SAPIEN as an example, this token rose over 64% within just 24 hours, peaking at $0.1898, with trading volume skyrocketing to tens of millions of dollars. Although there was a slight pullback afterward, indicating some funds taking profits, its performance still clearly conveyed one message: the market's enthusiasm for AI-related projects is being rapidly ignited.

The twilight light slants across the screen, that stubborn candlestick is trying to pierce through the oppressive atmosphere with a steep arc. $1.66 - this number lies quietly there, but underneath is a pot of just-boiled market conditions. In the past twenty-four hours, it has increased by more than twenty percent. This is unlike those ghostly altcoins, which rise and fall dramatically, leaving behind the bewildered faces of retail investors and empty wallets. This time, the market seems to have regained a long-lost rhythm: a rhythm that allows for breathing, following, and even trusting.

If you are still paying attention to ZEC, perhaps you have been dazzled by those flashy "institutional movements", "privacy upgrades", and "ETF applications". But first, take a look at the price—317.81, which seems like a three-digit number but is actually already standing at the edge of a cliff. From a high of 385.44, it has slid down to 301.14, a drop of over 20%. This is not volatility; this is a premeditated retreat.
The reports say things like "Grayscale submitted an ETF application" and "Cypherpunk is actively accumulating", which sound like good news, as if institutions are paving the way for you. But the truth is often: institutions are not entering the market to take you flying; they are landing on you. They accumulate, they apply, they create public opinion—then they cash out at high positions, leaving behind a pile of glamorous jargon and a series of plummeting candlestick charts.

Once upon a time, when mentioning the Solana ecosystem, JUP (Jupiter) was an unavoidable name. As the largest DEX aggregator on the Solana chain, Jupiter shone brilliantly in the last bull market, attracting a large number of users and funds, making it a star project of the SOL ecosystem. However, time has passed, and with the overall activity on the SOL chain declining, the heat of the ecosystem has gradually faded, and JUP seems to have followed its 'big brother' into a cold winter, with the price of the coin sliding from high levels, leaving many early holders sighing.
From Peak to Valley: The Silence of a Generation Star
Looking back at the price trend of JUP, it is no longer as brave as it once was. The chart shows that it has been lingering at low levels, although there are occasional technical rebounds—such as recently breaking through the resistance at 0.2289, MACD turning positive, and other short-term bullish signals—but overall it is still in a downward trend. The MA moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and the once glorious ranges of 0.4 and 0.5 dollars have become a thing of the past. The contraction in trading volume also reflects the loss of market attention, which is not unrelated to the overall liquidity contraction in the SOL ecosystem.

Once it was the 'King of Privacy' among the population, carrying the mystery of the dark web, the favor of institutions, and that alluring technological halo, charging upward. At that time, talking about ZEC, there was light in the eyes - grayscale wanted to push for an ETF, large institutions quietly hoarding, huge whales swimming within, as if it was destined to rewrite the narrative of privacy in cryptocurrency.
But the market has never been merciful.
Now looking at ZEC again, the price has been sliding downwards, almost unrecognizable from its former self. It can drop by more than ten percentage points in a single day, the trading volume is still there, but the lines on that chart look like a fatigued electrocardiogram, struggling occasionally, then returning to silence. The moving averages and indicators on the technical front are all turning downward, as if gently saying, 'The big players are no longer playing.'

A meme token named TST suddenly 'showed off' in a weak market. The price surged over 13% within an hour, trading volume skyrocketed, and the inflow of funds was quite considerable, making it seem like a 'star of hope' in a bear market at first glance.
But the truth often lies in the details.
From the data, TST did indeed experience a short-term surge, with the price jumping from $0.01501 to $0.01701, the MACD golden cross turning positive, and the inflow of funds seeming to be active. All of this seems to declare: the bullish sentiment has returned.
However, the tricks of such tokens are not new – they often 'jump out' to brush up their presence during an overall market downturn, attracting attention and creating an illusion. High volatility and high trading volume, combined with some technical indicators' 'beautiful turns', can easily mislead people into thinking an opportunity has arrived.

Brothers, has it exploded yet? Today, as soon as I opened the exchange, the screen was filled with green, but ZEC was green in a frightening way—just the downward kind. The price plummeted directly from the glorious moments of the past two months, diving into the abyss, falling nearly 17% in 24 hours; this drop makes one’s liver tremble.
Do you remember how glorious ZEC was two months ago? Back then, who didn't mention the 'leader of privacy coins'? Institutions were queuing to enter, Grayscale applied for an ETF, and Reliance Global Group even changed their investment portfolio to ZEC, making it seem real. What happened? When the market cooled down, it was the first to falter, dropping harder than anyone else.

What exactly is LSK? Why is it rising?
LSK is not a new coin that suddenly emerged; it has had its own positioning in the blockchain world for some time. It was originally an independent sidechain, focusing on 'making it easier for developers to build decentralized applications.' However, what truly made it popular recently is its key transformation: shifting from an independent sidechain to becoming an Ethereum Layer 2 based on OP Stack.
What does this mean? Simply put, it is no longer going solo but has chosen to join the Ethereum ecosystem and become part of the Optimism 'superchain.' This shift not only enhances its interoperability and security but also makes it easier to attract funding and developers—especially with the backing of the $15 million 'EMpower' ecosystem fund, which opens up greater possibilities in areas like real-world asset (RWA) tokenization in the future.

Have you noticed that almost every week, there is a game coin that suddenly takes off, doubling or even more in a short time? This is not a coincidence.
Young people are becoming an important force in the cryptocurrency market, and what they are most familiar with and willing to invest in is precisely gaming. Gaming is no longer just entertainment; it has become a medium for emotional projection and value representation. Once community consensus is formed, funds rapidly accumulate, and the explosion of a token often only takes a few days, or even a few hours.
The recent surge in MBL is a typical example of technical resonance: moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, the MACD continues to strengthen, and trading volume has surged, resulting in a strong breakout. Although it has entered the overbought zone in the short term, posing a risk of correction, this trend undoubtedly reaffirms that the gaming sector remains the place where 'miracles' are most likely to occur.

Two weeks, a 35% drop - this is not the normal fluctuation of the market, but a silent collapse. If you have ever paid attention to ZEC, you might remember that it was once worshipped as a god, as if it were an unmissable wealth code. However, when the price cascaded down like a waterfall, those once-glorious halos instantly faded into a disillusionment.
Some say that the crypto world is like a river and lake, where some earn a fortune while others suffer devastating losses. And ZEC may just be the most typical 'tool' in this world - it doesn't rely on value support, nor on practical applications, but merely on the 'tasks' in the hands of certain individuals. Once the task is completed, the tool is naturally discarded.

Recently, the performance of ZEC has left many investors feeling confused. On one hand, there are continuous positive news like institutional adoption, compliance progress, and ETF applications; on the other hand, the price continues to decline, even showing signs of a potential collapse from time to time. What exactly is behind this divergence?
From the data, the current price of ZEC is 463.34 USDT, with a decline of over 12% in the last 24 hours. Key moving averages such as MA7, MA25, and MA99 are all in a bearish arrangement, and the MACD indicator has also been consistently running below the zero axis, showing obvious bearish signals. Although trading volume has increased, the price has never managed to form an effective rebound, with each rise seemingly turning into a selling opportunity.

In the world of cryptocurrency, we are often surrounded by all kinds of noise—exaggerated promotions, frequent hotspots, and the endless emergence of the 'next thousandfold coin.' Yet amidst this clamor, there are some projects, like Nervos Network and its token CKB, that remain focused on code and technology, indifferent to the disputes of the world. They possess an impressive technical vision but are often forgotten in the corners of the market due to their lack of eloquence.
Technology is its backbone.
If you open the recent updates of CKB, you will find that its narrative is actually quite 'hardcore':
· New breakthrough in Bitcoin interoperability: Nervos recently launched the 'Bitcoin Light' wallet, integrating the security of Bitcoin with its application ecosystem. This is not just talk of 'cross-chain,' but a practical way to bring Bitcoin's liquidity into its own network.

Is this really the beginning of a new round of market activity, or just another 'pump and dump' trap?
Looking back at DODO's journey, it was also a 'hot commodity' during the last bull market, with the team’s marketing going strong, extensive promotion, and the price indeed multiplying many times. However, once the bull market ended, it continued to decline quietly, almost fading from public view.
Carefully examine the technical signals; they are not so optimistic after all. The MACD has started to weaken, and funds are in an outflow state. Although the 6-period RSI has dropped to around 31, entering the oversold zone, suggesting a potential rebound opportunity—overall momentum is clearly insufficient. Additionally, while the short-term moving averages are rising, the medium to long-term moving averages still show a suppressive state, indicating that this wave of upward movement has not truly reversed the trend.

Does this scene look familiar? Yes, this is a typical daily life of the 'RWA Concept Coin': being silent for most of the time, then suddenly surging at an unexpected moment, creating a steep bullish candlestick that makes one itch.
Cold reflections behind the warm data
Data shows that the short-term moving average (MA7) of OM has crossed above the mid-term moving average (MA25), which is a good short-term bullish signal. The trading volume has also significantly increased, indicating that funds are at work. The community is filled with a sense of excitement saying 'if you don't get on now, it will be too late', and many are already looking forward to the new threshold of $0.1.

In the past few days, watching the ZEC market makes me feel an indescribable oppression. The price keeps rubbing back and forth around five hundred dollars, neither going up nor down, as if being held down by something invisible, unable to surge or drop. The market seems to be waiting for a signal, but that signal has not yet come.
Many people may still remember that some time ago we repeatedly reminded that once ZEC breaks above 700 dollars, it would be time to consider gradually exiting. I don't know how many people paid attention at that time and made reductions at that position. It now seems that it was indeed a key node. Since then, ZEC's rise has seemed particularly arduous, with momentum clearly weakening, and now it is even trapped in a narrow range of fluctuations.

The XPL token caught my attention. The scenario it depicts—a fast, secure, and zero-fee stablecoin payment network.
Look around us, WeChat Pay and Alipay have completely changed our way of life. The convenience of not needing to make change, instant transactions, and the ability to travel the world with just a smartphone is the best proof of technology empowering our lives. However, when we turn our gaze to the global stage, especially in the field of cross-border payments, the traditional financial system still appears cumbersome, slow, and expensive. This is precisely the stage where cryptocurrencies can shine, and it's the fundamental reason I believe projects like XPL have immense potential.

The inflow of stablecoins is exaggerated—reportedly, there is $2.4 billion rushing in. With this kind of situation, who wouldn't be tempted?
The ecosystem is also making frequent moves. The USDsui stablecoin is online, and Grayscale Trust has also qualified on OTCQX, with the door for institutional entry opening wider and wider. On the technical side, the EMA arrangement is bullish, and the MACD has turned positive, looking quite promising.
But I advise you to stay calm.
I have been watching this coin for a while. Although it seems glamorous on the surface, there are many 'time bombs' hidden behind it. The biggest problem is that there are a large number of unlocked tokens that have not yet been released. What does that mean? It means that the SUI circulating in the market right now is only a part; a large number of tokens are held by the project party and investors, waiting to flood the market at some point in the future.