The Japanese Nikkei has just plummeted, Bitcoin has fallen below 50k, and the US Federal Reserve is holding an emergency meeting today.
Five days ago, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) suddenly raised interest rates from 0% to 0.25%. This was a huge shock to the market.
Previously, anyone could borrow Yen with interest-free, and convert it to USD, and buy stocks. It was like free money.
But there’s a major issue. Because the BoJ raised interest rates, the USD has fallen drastically against the Yen. This means traders who borrowed billions of Yen to buy dollars can't repay their debts.
So, what do they do? They sell the stocks purchased with those dollars, causing the stock market to crash. But wait, there’s more. This practice, known as Japanese 'carry trade' is worth $20 trillion. Japanese investors hold $4 trillion in US stocks using this method, and now they are facing margin calls. Much of this money is actually fake (leverage) and a bubble waiting to burst.
What about cryptocurrencies?Cryptocurrencies are risky assets. In times of panic like this, people sell off risky assets and seek safety. Typically, people turn to cash and gold. Some hope that Bitcoin will serve as a safe haven during uncertain times.
Only time will tell if that hope materializes. One more thing. I’ve seen this chart many times, suggesting it might be a bear trap—a final drop before a higher rise. I'm not confident about the current macroeconomic situation. I hope the crypto market will surge once the Fed takes action to boost the market.