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Gold remains highly sought after: Long-term value is highlighted, and a slow bull market is timely

Recently, gold has consistently occupied a central position in market discussions. At its core, this precious metal's intrinsic value and long-term upward logic deeply align with the current complex landscape of the global economy and finance, further emphasizing its strategic role in asset allocation and risk hedging.

From market performance, gold prices are steadily rising and showing great resilience. Even when facing short-term corrections, strong buying interest quickly absorbs such fluctuations, which is by no means mere speculative trading. The core driving force behind this round of gold's bull market has long exceeded the realm of short-term risk aversion or shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy. The ongoing wave of "de-dollarization" has made countries acutely aware of the potential risks of over-reliance on a single sovereign currency, and gold, as a hard currency with no credit risk, has become a key anchor for restructuring the global reserve system. Meanwhile, central banks around the world, especially those in emerging markets, have maintained a large-scale gold purchasing pace for consecutive years. The persistent and strategic demand from official levels has built a solid long-term support for gold prices that no short-term disruptive factors can shake.

In the current volatile market environment, gold's multiple values are even more prominent: it is a "safe haven" against geopolitical conflicts and inflation fluctuations, a "stabilizer" balancing the volatility of traditional assets like stocks and bonds, and a "ballast" safeguarding wealth value amidst the wave of changes in the global monetary system.

Industry consensus is that this round of gold market will exhibit distinct characteristics of "long-term slow bull and periodic fluctuations." For investors, it is essential to penetrate the fog of short-term volatility, anchor the core value and long-term trend of gold, and not panic over momentary rises and falls, while also avoiding blind chasing of highs. Only by seizing opportunities during pullbacks for reasonable allocation can one truly leverage gold's ballast and value-adding role in asset portfolios.

Gold, US Dollar, and Bonds 'Trio' Resonance: Macro Hedge Funds Achieve Best Performance Since 2008

Severe market volatility is providing a long-awaited 'tailwind' for macro hedge funds—weakening US dollar under trade frictions, a sell-off of long-term bonds, and the continuous surge of gold, together create a profitable environment rarely seen in years.

'In the past year, core asset classes such as commodities, foreign exchange, and bonds have presented excellent trading opportunities.' A senior executive from a large family office heavily invested in a European hedge fund candidly stated, 'The market for precious metals like gold remains highly active, the US dollar is in a bear market cycle, and there is a clear divergence in policy actions among major global central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England—all of this gives macro strategies ample room to flourish.'

Impressive performance returns have sustained the recovery momentum of the macro hedge fund industry. It's worth noting that during the decade following the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, extremely low interest rates combined with sluggish market volatility had made this industry struggle.

'If macro funds haven't turned a profit this year, it's really hard to justify that.' A hedge fund executive in the industry commented on the current market environment.

Many funds have also accurately bet on the trend of widening interest rate spreads between short and long-term lending costs, profiting from market concerns about the excessive debt levels of major economies—the sell-off of long-term bonds is the core profit source for such trades. According to insiders, top institutions like Caxton and Gramex Capital have reaped substantial gains through 'steepening yield curve' trades; among them, Caxton has benefited greatly, simultaneously profiting from the upward trends in precious metals like gold and copper, as well as industrial metals.

Crude Oil Evening Review: Brent Oil 61.7 Threshold Fluctuation, Bullish Layout Steady Under Moving Average Support

Brent crude oil is engaged in a tug-of-war around the 61.70 threshold, with intraday fluctuations and upward movement: after a morning peak of 61.30, it slightly retreated, and in the evening, bulls attacked again to 61.75, currently still in a bullish trend.

Macroeconomic factors are interwoven: the US dollar is weakly fluctuating around 98.4, the US November core CPI fell to 2.6%, raising expectations for interest rate cuts, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide safe-haven support.

Technical aspect: MA7 and MA20 have moved up, forming dynamic support, with 59.53 being a strong support level from previous lows, while 61.71 serves as the dividing line for bulls and bears intraday.

A pullback to 61.3-61.5 to stabilize with light positions, stop loss at 61.0; if effectively breaking through 61.75, follow with bullish positions, target 62.0-62.2, stop loss below 61.4. If it falls below 61.0 and closes underneath, it will turn weak in the short term, and wait for stabilization at the support of 59.53 before re-establishing positions.

Gold Evening Trading Strategy: Trend Bullish Dominance, Pullback Layout as Core

After stabilizing and breaking through the high point, gold surged above 4400, with bullish momentum fully released, and the overall upward trend is clear. From the rhythm characteristics, the previous market moved with a sweeping upward push. Currently, after multiple breakthroughs, we need to be alert to short-term rhythm switches, but on the trend level, the upward channel has not fundamentally changed. Blindly chasing orders may lead to passivity; a prudent strategy still focuses on pullback layouts for long positions.

On the hourly chart, gold prices maintain a fluctuating upward structure, with the upward trendline support having moved up to the 4390-4395 range. This range is the key support area for the continuation of short-term bullishness, and a pullback to this area has clear layout value.

Specific Trading Thoughts

Core long position layout range: 4390-4400; if it pulls back to the 4380-4385 range, additional positions can be added;
Stop-loss setting: 4375 (if it effectively breaks below trend support, abandon the bullish layout);
Target: 4430-4435 range (previous resistance level combined with trend extension target)

During the day, the strategy details will be dynamically adjusted based on real-time trends, and it is essential to pay close attention to support level stabilization signals and the sustainability of upward momentum, strictly implement risk control rules, and avoid chasing risks.

Gold and silver have reached historic highs, and the Renminbi has refreshed its yearly high.

Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific stock markets, U.S. stock futures, crude oil, U.S. Treasury bonds, and Bitcoin have all risen indiscriminately. Only the U.S. dollar has slightly declined. Just looking at the quotes is very interesting.

- Precious metals lead, with increases greater than other assets. If it were simply a warming of risk appetite, the first to strengthen would certainly be stocks, not gold and silver. Today's situation is that gold and silver have already taken a lead as 'endgame assets,' while stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil seem to be passively following, not wanting to lag behind.

- The U.S. dollar is only 'slightly down,' not in a major fall; the market is not betting on a single narrative of interest rate cuts (no one dares to completely deny the U.S. dollar). What we see is not a consensus of funds favoring one direction, but rather each asset being assigned a bit of 'uncertainty weight.'

Historically, this kind of 'indiscriminate rise' usually has two scenarios:

The first: a 'buffer period' before a turning point. The market has not yet chosen a direction, volatility is suppressed, but the structure has already started to deform.

The second: the old framework has failed, and the new framework has not yet been established. The old pricing models are no longer effective, and each asset is being treated as a 'possible answer' to try. From the current composition, it looks more like the second scenario. It’s not that the world has suddenly improved, but rather that there is no asset that the market is convinced is the 'wrong direction,' so it has chosen the path of least resistance—upwards (rather than the most confident choice). In this environment, a turning point is never a 'sudden crash,' but rather a certain type of asset suddenly losing upward momentum (beginning to consolidate, shrinking trading volume, no longer responding to favorable news).

This is not an era of 'bullish on everything,' but rather an era that dares not deny everything.

The rise of gold during the day has been incredibly strong, leaving no room for a pullback. A-ming experienced a loss from shorting in the morning, and after breaking through the major resistance level, he could only change his strategy to focus on going long. It seems to be not too late, and he also went long near 00, successfully capturing over 10 points in profit, which is insignificant compared to the loss from the previous trade under strict risk control! [Applause] ​​​

Gold has once again broken new highs. Will silver's rise to 70 also be a nearby breakthrough? Zhuoyuan 12.22 Silver Insights

News: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in December, with a continued rate cut expectation into 2026, and the US dollar index weakening to 98.6, enhancing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets. Supply and Demand & Inventory: COMEX inventory is at a 15-year low, with significant delivery pressure; the use of silver in photovoltaics/new energy vehicles/AI is surging, with a projected gap of about 95 million ounces by 2025; strikes in Peru and increased tariffs in Mexico are tightening supply further. Geopolitical Hedge: Attacks on Russian tankers in Ukraine and increased US sanctions on Venezuela are boosting demand for safe-haven assets. Funds and Market: Silver ETFs continue to see inflows, with the State Investment Silver LOF adjusting the subscription limit today (A class to 500 yuan, C class to 500 yuan), and the on-site premium exceeding 44%, indicating a risk of overheating sentiment. Policy and Regulation: COMEX raises silver futures margin by 10%, China upgrades silver to a strategic resource, implementing export license management starting January 2026, and supply expectations are further tightening.

Silver Recommendations: Trend: The main uptrend continues, but overbought conditions and crowded trading are increasing volatility. Resistance: $69.5 (intraday high), $70 (round number). Support: $65-66 (trend line), $61 (20-EMA).

Trading Recommendations: Do not chase highs. If it rebounds to $69.5-70, consider light short positions with a stop loss at $70.5; if it pulls back to $65-66 and stabilizes, a small long position can be taken with a stop loss at $64.
Long to medium term: The trend is still in place, but wait for a pullback to gradually position, keeping the allocation within 30%, and ensure good risk control.

Everything is rising, the world is collectively hesitating

Gold, US stock futures, and crude oil opened higher on Monday—US stocks performed well last Friday, easing the market's tense atmosphere.
But one word to note: "light trading." As we enter holiday mode, a lot of capital has already started to "close up shop," and during such times, the rise may be amplified, but its quality is not high.

· First, last week the S&P 500 index stood above 6800 points, the NASDAQ index broke through the 50-day moving average, and Bitcoin steadily stood above $85000—so one theme starting this Monday will be "betting on a year-end rebound" (not "optimistic for next year"). From this perspective, the path of least resistance this week is "upward," but the only risk is that consensus will become increasingly uniform. Once it is overly discussed, two outcomes may occur: premature exhaustion or a quicker but shorter-lived rise.

· Second, for investors, it remains an environment of expectations, as the market continues to bet that the Fed will have two rate cuts next year (reasonable, not aggressive), and people will continue to bet with hope. The market has no direction, only betting on probabilities.

· Third, the global market remains in a state of "hedging coexistence," with stock markets rising, the dollar not falling, gold not weakening, and bond yields remaining high—the market does not believe in a single narrative. This is not a bull market rise; it resembles a collective hesitation.

Fourth, the true "watershed" of the market does not lie in the holidays but in January—not a point, but a "re-pricing period."
China: If January's policy signals are not clear enough, patient capital will continue to wait and see.

The US: Once "no rate cut in January" becomes consensus, valuations will need to be re-discounted.

This is not a rebound that one can "safely chase," but it is also an environment that is "not suitable for simple shorting." The real choice lies in January.

12.22 Gold Morning Trading Strategy: Encountering Resistance After a Rally, Short Selling is Appropriate Now
From the 1-hour technical perspective, the gold price quickly fell back after a previous rally, forming a clear short-term high. The upper Bollinger band **4361** was briefly broken but could not hold, and bullish momentum has clearly weakened at high levels, officially opening up a short selling window.

The previous high **4374** constitutes a strong resistance level, with the gold price testing it multiple times without effective breakthrough, and the 'double top' pattern is taking shape. The 1-hour K-line closed with a long upper shadow, highlighting the heavy selling pressure above; after the gold price fell back, it returned to within the Bollinger band, with the upper band’s resistance becoming prominent, while the middle band **4336** is the key short-term support level. If it breaks below, the downward space will open further.

On the fundamental side, slight improvement in U.S. economic data has pushed the dollar index into a technical rebound at low levels, reducing the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars, and market funds are starting to shift from the gold market to dollar assets. Coupled with the approaching Christmas holiday, institutional trading activity has declined, and funds are generally inclined to secure profits, with bullish willingness to chase prices being low, providing an excellent market environment for short-term bearish trends.

**Specific Gold Trading Strategy**:
Short sell at the 4370-4375 line, add positions at the 4380-4385 line, with a stop-loss set at 4390; the initial target is the 4335-4340 range, and if support breaks, further look towards the 4320-4325 area.

There is nothing wrong with the early low-thought approach; a batch of harvests one after another, opportunities present themselves time and again, whether one can seize them depends on one's ability ​​​

The fluctuations in the golden US market have shown some improvement, with a slight upward movement in the short term. Focus on 4340 above, and if it breaks, look at 4350-60. The half position left during the day at 4308-13 long orders should continue to be held patiently, with a stop loss at 4308 while waiting for instructions. Today, this is the only order to hold onto for the day. For those with no positions, either try to take a light long position or observe until after the weekend; short positions are not considered.

Establishing a trading system that suits you is not only a necessary path for every stock investor to become a mature investor but also the foundation for achieving steady wealth growth. The market is ever-changing, and there is no one-size-fits-all formula. Only a "custom-made" system can help us clarify the complex market conditions and find our own rhythm.
When building a trading system, the first step is to understand yourself deeply. Some people prefer aggressive strategies and are willing to take on high risks for high returns; others favor a stable defensive approach, seeking long-term steady appreciation. Your personality determines how much loss you can tolerate, and having clear investment goals can help you avoid blindly chasing trends. For example, an investor with a higher risk appetite may be more suitable for swing trading, while a conservative investor may prioritize value investing methods for stock selection.

On the evening of December 19, the outlook for gold: Yesterday, gold experienced a dramatic rise and fall, showcasing a "night of terror".

Yesterday's gold movement was nothing short of an epic roller coaster! Just as most investors were sound asleep, the price of gold suddenly surged violently, rushing towards the critical level of 4375, inching ever closer to the historical peak, instantly igniting market exclamations—was this an attempt to catch everyone off guard and directly refresh the historical record? This spike was incredibly fierce!

However, just when the market thought a new record was within reach, gold suddenly reversed course, and the bulls instantly collapsed, with prices plunging dramatically, delivering a “counterattack” to all those who had chased higher, completely overturning market perceptions and firmly “pressing” a group of investors down to the floor!

Retail investors who experienced this dramatic rise and fall lamented: this market is too ruthless! A perfect and precise harvesting of the inexperienced!

Last night's astonishing movement in gold, was it a signal of a trend reversal, or just a short-term washout? How should we position ourselves for the future?

In this regard, Ami clearly pointed out: After yesterday's violent fluctuations, the gold market has shown a clear downward intention, but whether this intention can be fully released still needs to be observed in the subsequent actual trend. The current geopolitical game is intricate and full of variables, and various unexpected events make it difficult to accurately predict the market's stimulating effects in advance; however, from a purely technical analysis perspective, the logic for gold's decline is clear. As long as no unexpected black swan events occur, a price drop will be a high-probability event.

In summary, tonight we need to be particularly cautious of a decline in gold prices and suggest that investors closely follow market rhythms and choose the right moment to short!