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12.23 Midnight Gold Review: Where is the next peak for continued bullish outlook this week?
Gold has strongly broken through historical highs, with an upward trend in all three sessions. Opening at around 4338, it rebounded and soared high, with the gold bulls remaining strong during the US session. Last Friday, A Ming publicly arranged long positions at 4307, which rose as expected. Today, we continue with a bullish mindset, planning to set long positions around the integer level of 4400, as anticipated. The 4420 current price long position given during the US session was accurately executed!

The situation in the Middle East is tense, with Ukraine attacking a Russian oil tanker, directly threatening the security of the global energy supply chain, leading to skyrocketing global shipping insurance costs. The market is repricing the risks of energy disruption, with gold being viewed as the "ultimate hedge tool against the energy crisis," once again fostering risk aversion and exacerbating inflation expectations, indirectly pushing up gold prices.

The bullish momentum for gold continues to be released, with the hourly chart showing a clear oscillating upward rhythm, as prices steadily climb along the upward trend line, repeatedly breaking through previous resistance levels. As the market strengthens, the previous historical high of 4382 has completed a top-bottom conversion, now synchronized and raised to the 4400/06 range, which is both a key support level for the trend line and a core battleground for short-term bullish and bearish plays, providing solid backing for long positions in the future. If this position is maintained, then gold bulls will have a brighter future.

The hourly moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, with prices relying on short-term moving averages for upward movement, and the pullback range is limited, with a complete upward trend structure; during the rising process, trading volume moderately expands, while it contracts during pullbacks, showing clear characteristics of bullish control, and upward momentum has not shown any signs of weakening; after multiple upward tests, no significant top divergence has appeared, and the oscillating upward rhythm is steady, with strong continuity.

Specific operational strategy: Relying on the 4400/06 support range, plan to set long positions on pullbacks, and add positions at 4390, with a stop loss at around 4382.
Target 4435/45

12.22 Gold continues to surge at midnight, with bulls strongly rising without hesitation.

On Monday, gold opened at around 4338 and quickly rebounded higher. As of now, the price has reached a peak of 4429.06, strongly breaking through and setting a new high. The early morning surge clearly indicates the dominant position of the bulls, and this week's operational strategy must firmly favor a bullish outlook. In a trending market, there is no need to excessively speculate on the top position; following the trend is the way to steadily grasp profits. From the perspective of daily and weekly patterns, the momentum of this bull rally is sufficient, and its strength should not be underestimated. In this unidirectional strong market, shorting against the trend is akin to a mantis trying to stop a car, easily leading to a passive situation. During the midnight period, it is crucial to focus on the situation around the 4400 key level, as this position will become the key for short-term bullish-bearish conversion.

The current surge in gold is not coincidental. In addition to the favorable support from related data, the ongoing geopolitical tensions have also provided strong impetus for the rise in gold prices. As the market rises, the support level for gold bulls has moved up to around the 4400 key level, and midnight operations can rely on this crucial support to position long orders. From the hourly trend analysis, gold overall maintains a fluctuating upward rhythm, with prices testing resistance in a step-like manner, and the upward trend line is clearly visible. The current hourly support range has moved up to 4400-4406, and any pullback presents a good opportunity to go long in line with the trend, continuing the bullish rise. Specific real-time operational strategies will be given during the session.

Specific operational strategies for gold in the evening:

Go long at the 4400-4406 level, add long positions at 4390, stop loss at 4383, target towards 4435-4440, and continue to hold if broken.

Gold remains highly sought after: Long-term value is highlighted, and a slow bull market is timely

Recently, gold has consistently occupied a central position in market discussions. At its core, this precious metal's intrinsic value and long-term upward logic deeply align with the current complex landscape of the global economy and finance, further emphasizing its strategic role in asset allocation and risk hedging.

From market performance, gold prices are steadily rising and showing great resilience. Even when facing short-term corrections, strong buying interest quickly absorbs such fluctuations, which is by no means mere speculative trading. The core driving force behind this round of gold's bull market has long exceeded the realm of short-term risk aversion or shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy. The ongoing wave of "de-dollarization" has made countries acutely aware of the potential risks of over-reliance on a single sovereign currency, and gold, as a hard currency with no credit risk, has become a key anchor for restructuring the global reserve system. Meanwhile, central banks around the world, especially those in emerging markets, have maintained a large-scale gold purchasing pace for consecutive years. The persistent and strategic demand from official levels has built a solid long-term support for gold prices that no short-term disruptive factors can shake.

In the current volatile market environment, gold's multiple values are even more prominent: it is a "safe haven" against geopolitical conflicts and inflation fluctuations, a "stabilizer" balancing the volatility of traditional assets like stocks and bonds, and a "ballast" safeguarding wealth value amidst the wave of changes in the global monetary system.

Industry consensus is that this round of gold market will exhibit distinct characteristics of "long-term slow bull and periodic fluctuations." For investors, it is essential to penetrate the fog of short-term volatility, anchor the core value and long-term trend of gold, and not panic over momentary rises and falls, while also avoiding blind chasing of highs. Only by seizing opportunities during pullbacks for reasonable allocation can one truly leverage gold's ballast and value-adding role in asset portfolios.

Gold, US Dollar, and Bonds 'Trio' Resonance: Macro Hedge Funds Achieve Best Performance Since 2008

Severe market volatility is providing a long-awaited 'tailwind' for macro hedge funds—weakening US dollar under trade frictions, a sell-off of long-term bonds, and the continuous surge of gold, together create a profitable environment rarely seen in years.

'In the past year, core asset classes such as commodities, foreign exchange, and bonds have presented excellent trading opportunities.' A senior executive from a large family office heavily invested in a European hedge fund candidly stated, 'The market for precious metals like gold remains highly active, the US dollar is in a bear market cycle, and there is a clear divergence in policy actions among major global central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England—all of this gives macro strategies ample room to flourish.'

Impressive performance returns have sustained the recovery momentum of the macro hedge fund industry. It's worth noting that during the decade following the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, extremely low interest rates combined with sluggish market volatility had made this industry struggle.

'If macro funds haven't turned a profit this year, it's really hard to justify that.' A hedge fund executive in the industry commented on the current market environment.

Many funds have also accurately bet on the trend of widening interest rate spreads between short and long-term lending costs, profiting from market concerns about the excessive debt levels of major economies—the sell-off of long-term bonds is the core profit source for such trades. According to insiders, top institutions like Caxton and Gramex Capital have reaped substantial gains through 'steepening yield curve' trades; among them, Caxton has benefited greatly, simultaneously profiting from the upward trends in precious metals like gold and copper, as well as industrial metals.

Crude Oil Evening Review: Brent Oil 61.7 Threshold Fluctuation, Bullish Layout Steady Under Moving Average Support

Brent crude oil is engaged in a tug-of-war around the 61.70 threshold, with intraday fluctuations and upward movement: after a morning peak of 61.30, it slightly retreated, and in the evening, bulls attacked again to 61.75, currently still in a bullish trend.

Macroeconomic factors are interwoven: the US dollar is weakly fluctuating around 98.4, the US November core CPI fell to 2.6%, raising expectations for interest rate cuts, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide safe-haven support.

Technical aspect: MA7 and MA20 have moved up, forming dynamic support, with 59.53 being a strong support level from previous lows, while 61.71 serves as the dividing line for bulls and bears intraday.

A pullback to 61.3-61.5 to stabilize with light positions, stop loss at 61.0; if effectively breaking through 61.75, follow with bullish positions, target 62.0-62.2, stop loss below 61.4. If it falls below 61.0 and closes underneath, it will turn weak in the short term, and wait for stabilization at the support of 59.53 before re-establishing positions.

Gold Evening Trading Strategy: Trend Bullish Dominance, Pullback Layout as Core

After stabilizing and breaking through the high point, gold surged above 4400, with bullish momentum fully released, and the overall upward trend is clear. From the rhythm characteristics, the previous market moved with a sweeping upward push. Currently, after multiple breakthroughs, we need to be alert to short-term rhythm switches, but on the trend level, the upward channel has not fundamentally changed. Blindly chasing orders may lead to passivity; a prudent strategy still focuses on pullback layouts for long positions.

On the hourly chart, gold prices maintain a fluctuating upward structure, with the upward trendline support having moved up to the 4390-4395 range. This range is the key support area for the continuation of short-term bullishness, and a pullback to this area has clear layout value.

Specific Trading Thoughts

Core long position layout range: 4390-4400; if it pulls back to the 4380-4385 range, additional positions can be added;
Stop-loss setting: 4375 (if it effectively breaks below trend support, abandon the bullish layout);
Target: 4430-4435 range (previous resistance level combined with trend extension target)

During the day, the strategy details will be dynamically adjusted based on real-time trends, and it is essential to pay close attention to support level stabilization signals and the sustainability of upward momentum, strictly implement risk control rules, and avoid chasing risks.

Gold and silver have reached historic highs, and the Renminbi has refreshed its yearly high.

Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific stock markets, U.S. stock futures, crude oil, U.S. Treasury bonds, and Bitcoin have all risen indiscriminately. Only the U.S. dollar has slightly declined. Just looking at the quotes is very interesting.

- Precious metals lead, with increases greater than other assets. If it were simply a warming of risk appetite, the first to strengthen would certainly be stocks, not gold and silver. Today's situation is that gold and silver have already taken a lead as 'endgame assets,' while stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil seem to be passively following, not wanting to lag behind.

- The U.S. dollar is only 'slightly down,' not in a major fall; the market is not betting on a single narrative of interest rate cuts (no one dares to completely deny the U.S. dollar). What we see is not a consensus of funds favoring one direction, but rather each asset being assigned a bit of 'uncertainty weight.'

Historically, this kind of 'indiscriminate rise' usually has two scenarios:

The first: a 'buffer period' before a turning point. The market has not yet chosen a direction, volatility is suppressed, but the structure has already started to deform.

The second: the old framework has failed, and the new framework has not yet been established. The old pricing models are no longer effective, and each asset is being treated as a 'possible answer' to try. From the current composition, it looks more like the second scenario. It’s not that the world has suddenly improved, but rather that there is no asset that the market is convinced is the 'wrong direction,' so it has chosen the path of least resistance—upwards (rather than the most confident choice). In this environment, a turning point is never a 'sudden crash,' but rather a certain type of asset suddenly losing upward momentum (beginning to consolidate, shrinking trading volume, no longer responding to favorable news).

This is not an era of 'bullish on everything,' but rather an era that dares not deny everything.

The rise of gold during the day has been incredibly strong, leaving no room for a pullback. A-ming experienced a loss from shorting in the morning, and after breaking through the major resistance level, he could only change his strategy to focus on going long. It seems to be not too late, and he also went long near 00, successfully capturing over 10 points in profit, which is insignificant compared to the loss from the previous trade under strict risk control! [Applause] ​​​

Gold has once again broken new highs. Will silver's rise to 70 also be a nearby breakthrough? Zhuoyuan 12.22 Silver Insights

News: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in December, with a continued rate cut expectation into 2026, and the US dollar index weakening to 98.6, enhancing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets. Supply and Demand & Inventory: COMEX inventory is at a 15-year low, with significant delivery pressure; the use of silver in photovoltaics/new energy vehicles/AI is surging, with a projected gap of about 95 million ounces by 2025; strikes in Peru and increased tariffs in Mexico are tightening supply further. Geopolitical Hedge: Attacks on Russian tankers in Ukraine and increased US sanctions on Venezuela are boosting demand for safe-haven assets. Funds and Market: Silver ETFs continue to see inflows, with the State Investment Silver LOF adjusting the subscription limit today (A class to 500 yuan, C class to 500 yuan), and the on-site premium exceeding 44%, indicating a risk of overheating sentiment. Policy and Regulation: COMEX raises silver futures margin by 10%, China upgrades silver to a strategic resource, implementing export license management starting January 2026, and supply expectations are further tightening.

Silver Recommendations: Trend: The main uptrend continues, but overbought conditions and crowded trading are increasing volatility. Resistance: $69.5 (intraday high), $70 (round number). Support: $65-66 (trend line), $61 (20-EMA).

Trading Recommendations: Do not chase highs. If it rebounds to $69.5-70, consider light short positions with a stop loss at $70.5; if it pulls back to $65-66 and stabilizes, a small long position can be taken with a stop loss at $64.
Long to medium term: The trend is still in place, but wait for a pullback to gradually position, keeping the allocation within 30%, and ensure good risk control.

Everything is rising, the world is collectively hesitating

Gold, US stock futures, and crude oil opened higher on Monday—US stocks performed well last Friday, easing the market's tense atmosphere.
But one word to note: "light trading." As we enter holiday mode, a lot of capital has already started to "close up shop," and during such times, the rise may be amplified, but its quality is not high.

· First, last week the S&P 500 index stood above 6800 points, the NASDAQ index broke through the 50-day moving average, and Bitcoin steadily stood above $85000—so one theme starting this Monday will be "betting on a year-end rebound" (not "optimistic for next year"). From this perspective, the path of least resistance this week is "upward," but the only risk is that consensus will become increasingly uniform. Once it is overly discussed, two outcomes may occur: premature exhaustion or a quicker but shorter-lived rise.

· Second, for investors, it remains an environment of expectations, as the market continues to bet that the Fed will have two rate cuts next year (reasonable, not aggressive), and people will continue to bet with hope. The market has no direction, only betting on probabilities.

· Third, the global market remains in a state of "hedging coexistence," with stock markets rising, the dollar not falling, gold not weakening, and bond yields remaining high—the market does not believe in a single narrative. This is not a bull market rise; it resembles a collective hesitation.

Fourth, the true "watershed" of the market does not lie in the holidays but in January—not a point, but a "re-pricing period."
China: If January's policy signals are not clear enough, patient capital will continue to wait and see.

The US: Once "no rate cut in January" becomes consensus, valuations will need to be re-discounted.

This is not a rebound that one can "safely chase," but it is also an environment that is "not suitable for simple shorting." The real choice lies in January.

12.22 Gold Morning Trading Strategy: Encountering Resistance After a Rally, Short Selling is Appropriate Now
From the 1-hour technical perspective, the gold price quickly fell back after a previous rally, forming a clear short-term high. The upper Bollinger band **4361** was briefly broken but could not hold, and bullish momentum has clearly weakened at high levels, officially opening up a short selling window.

The previous high **4374** constitutes a strong resistance level, with the gold price testing it multiple times without effective breakthrough, and the 'double top' pattern is taking shape. The 1-hour K-line closed with a long upper shadow, highlighting the heavy selling pressure above; after the gold price fell back, it returned to within the Bollinger band, with the upper band’s resistance becoming prominent, while the middle band **4336** is the key short-term support level. If it breaks below, the downward space will open further.

On the fundamental side, slight improvement in U.S. economic data has pushed the dollar index into a technical rebound at low levels, reducing the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars, and market funds are starting to shift from the gold market to dollar assets. Coupled with the approaching Christmas holiday, institutional trading activity has declined, and funds are generally inclined to secure profits, with bullish willingness to chase prices being low, providing an excellent market environment for short-term bearish trends.

**Specific Gold Trading Strategy**:
Short sell at the 4370-4375 line, add positions at the 4380-4385 line, with a stop-loss set at 4390; the initial target is the 4335-4340 range, and if support breaks, further look towards the 4320-4325 area.

There is nothing wrong with the early low-thought approach; a batch of harvests one after another, opportunities present themselves time and again, whether one can seize them depends on one's ability ​​​

The fluctuations in the golden US market have shown some improvement, with a slight upward movement in the short term. Focus on 4340 above, and if it breaks, look at 4350-60. The half position left during the day at 4308-13 long orders should continue to be held patiently, with a stop loss at 4308 while waiting for instructions. Today, this is the only order to hold onto for the day. For those with no positions, either try to take a light long position or observe until after the weekend; short positions are not considered.