一诺的交易思考

bybit plans to repurchase 1.5 billion USD ETH #bybit被盗

JUP: 50% of future protocol revenue will be used for JUP buybacks

Gray Release Q1 2025 Research Report, listing HYPE, ENA, VIRTUAL, JUP, JTO, GRASS in the TOP 20 potential assets
$JTO $JUP

Since the birth of Bitcoin, there are three certainties in the cryptocurrency world:
1. Bitcoin is not dead;
2. Bitcoin’s low point;
3. The 4-year cycle.
For the rest, we need to use probabilistic thinking. Small bets are fun, but big bets can hurt your body. ​​​

$SOL

Market news, negotiations between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and issuers hoping to launch a SOL spot ETF are making 'progress', the SEC is processing the S-1 application for the SOL spot ETF $SOL

A New Future: BTC, SOL, Doge (Continuing the Dream)

Open Scheme: Act, Pnut, Pepe

Conspiracy: Ban, Luce, Lester, Rif, AVA (Be Cautious of Traps)

Welcoming the New: Bonk, Goat

Strong Control: XRP, OM

Efforts Seem Useless: ENA, APT, Sui, STX, IO, Cheems

Seemingly Alive but Actually Dead: ETH, TIA, SCR

The market is now divided into three parts

1. BTC rally. During this period, there are fundamentally strong altcoins following, such as SUI, APT, PEPE, ENA, and PENDL.

2. The hype around DOGE. The washout has also lasted long enough. Musk's coin, Musk's brand supports Trump; Trump wants to relax crypto regulations. Musk supports so much money, so it needs to have a place to earn back.

3. Aimeeme. Binance has launched ACT spot trading, and Aimeeme has entered a new phase, led by exchanges. Only after reaching a certain height will we know what it can achieve. However, based on comparisons, Aimeeme, as a brand new category of asset, can at least reach a market capitalization similar to secondary meme coins like Bonk and Floki, which means the leading cap can be around 2 billion. Additionally, in a bull market, the ceiling for the leader could rise to 3 billion, which wouldn't be surprising. But the journey is taken step by step.

If holding coins has deviated from the aforementioned market range, then it is basically unrelated to the current market.
$DOGE $ACT

Trump: Looking for crypto-friendly candidates for key financial institutions. Candidates currently being considered for the SEC and other positions include Daniel Gallagher, Hster Peirce, Mark Uyeda, Paul Atkins and Chris Giancarlo. The selected SEC candidate will replace current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.
$BTC $SOL $DOGE

The characteristics of a bull market are that the market inexplicably rises, and you have no positions at all, even wanting to short.

Have you noticed this kind of market? There are no large upward movements of ten points in an hour, only a gradual rise, inching up. This is a true bull market, with increasing capital driving it. Remember, a gradual rise = bull market.

Only by holding long positions can you maximize profits in a gradual upward trend; large and short positions cannot capture all the small upward movements. $BTC $ETH $SOL

If you are optimistic about ETH, buy Neiro
If you are optimistic about SOL, buy Goat, Moodeng
If you are optimistic about TON, buy HMSTR
Everyone has a bright future👻
$NEIRO $HMSTR

Reasons for mistakes most people make

1. Losses lead to a rush to break even; rushing to break even leads to frequent trading, and frequent trading leads to anxiety about gains and losses...

2. Even though you are making money, seeing others earn hundreds of thousands to millions can make you feel worse, wishing you could leverage to the max, only to end up in trouble,

3. After opening a position, you make a little profit and run, only to miss out on a big market move, then when you want to capitalize on the big market, you find yourself with a little profit but also a pullback, getting trapped again, repeating this torment...

Actually, all these problems can be resolved; you first need to understand the deeper reasons behind them to consider how to address them.

The most important thing in trading is the mindset, not the technique; having the right mindset enables you to survive and profit continuously.
$BTC $SOL

Can you become the god of trading? Family members

A friend of mine asked me to ask if the reef can still reach the other side.

APT

In the past quarter, Aptos' total transaction volume reached a record $3.4 billion. This figure is not only a 240% increase from the first quarter of 2024, but also a staggering 1,500% increase from the last quarter of 2023. Aptos's growth momentum is so rapid that it is hard to ignore. ​​​

$APT

Whether this wave can break through 68,000 depends on whether Ethereum is strong. It will be great if Ethereum is strong (exchange rate rises + not dragging down). If it is not strong, it is estimated that Bitcoin will still fluctuate in a channel (after all, the daily line is actually a channel opening downward). Then meme will be the main attack direction. If it breaks through 68,000, the daily line, the three-day line, and the weekly line will rise. If you say 100,000, I will believe it, and 200,000 is also good. ​​​

Whether the rate cut tonight is 0.5 or 0.25
My plan is to sell it to those who need it as planned

When BTC sprints to the 62000-64444 range
Decisively sell some coins, take profits and move forward steadily

Then wait ⌛
Patiencely wait for the daily buying point structure I mentioned to appear shopping🛍

Two plans for BTC are ready: ⬇

Plan A: ⬇
Hold above 59500 for 4 hours
Hold 58900 steadily, and the 4-hour line is still oscillating and bullish
Upper target🎯 61300-62000-64444

Plan B: ⬇
If it breaks 59500
Experienced traders can go short directly and follow the market trend

🔄 At present, the long and short competition is fierce
Trading requires precise positioning, setting stop loss, and clarifying the target position

It doesn’t look good at the moment
⚠ Be extra careful about news tonight
It is best to suspend contract trading, safety first
$BTC $ETH $SOL

He Yi: BN has no intention to control meme, the problem is that there is no hot spot now. To summarize, there are roughly three categories

1) tg small games, there are many players.

2) A large number of infrastructure projects have been listed, all of which are high-valued VC projects.

3) Memecoin is the only hot item in the market. The previous contract did follow the trend of Neiro. The community reported that meme is becoming more and more popular, so it took some time to find some projects with relatively low market value and dispersed chips to test the water.

4) For other types of projects, we also keep observing. If you think there are any projects that you think are particularly good, please recommend them.

BN is a trading platform. It will try to provide a variety of projects that the market needs, but investment is risky. I hope everyone will try to DYOR before buying and selling

Good assets are a gold mine when they fall because they are likely to be pulled back. Junk assets will also rise sharply like good assets. However, junk assets are a one-time deal when they fall. The probability of rising again is very small. There are millions of altcoins. They have risen in the bull market, but they can still rise after falling. How many have risen since 2017? Just like the real estate in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen will rise after falling. However, the real estate in 18-tier counties may fall deeper after falling. Both good assets and bad assets will rise. However, good assets are likely to rebound after a big drop. Bad assets are likely to continue to fall. Never buy junk assets because they are cheap for a while because they will be even more junk. Buying a good asset is like buying a seed and burying it in the soil. It will take root, sprout and bear fruit. Buying a bad asset is like putting someone else's leftover bread in your pocket. You feel that there is still a bite, but there is someone else's saliva on it. If you don't eat it now, it will mold, rot and stink. $BTC $SOL $BNB

1. A mature trader will not give up his career just because of a temporary loss. He will not think he is invincible just because of a temporary profit. Moreover, only losses and profits are not a reasonable evaluation of trading level. Outperforming the market index is. Last year, many major indexes fell by more than 35%. If you only lost 20%, it is a profit and it is great. From the end of the year to this year, many indexes have risen by 50%. If you only make 40%, it is not excellent, but it is equivalent to a loss. This is a Weibo post from 23 years ago. It is still applicable today. Adjust your mentality to outperform the index instead of profit and loss. Make more when you make money and lose less when you lose money.
2. Earn more than the index in a bull market
But fewer than people who add leverage
Volatile markets or bear markets are to make up for it
Because at this moment, the leverage users have huge drawdowns
Far behind the index
What you need to do is to earn more than the index in a bull market
Far less than the index in a bear market
Obviously, it is not something that leverage itself can optimize
In active trading and timing, you still have to follow the following principles
Allocation balance first, industry second, company third

3. Outperform the index itself
In fact, I have basically achieved both bull and bear markets
But considering that Buffett has not entered the market for five years and has not used leverage for his entire life
I am still far behind
The longest I have achieved is to clear my warehouse for half a year and not enter the market for half a year
The longest is almost less than a year without using leverage
Then it really fits the saying
Don't be afraid of the hardships of life
Just be afraid of stopping gambling
Knowing that the market is not good, you will still end up
And you will find various reasons for yourself to end up
So what exactly was Buffett doing in the four or five years when he was not in the market
How to pay attention to the market for such a long time without participating in the market
This feels like you are a normal young man
And then you hug a beautiful woman every night and can't move for five years

Pumpfun is an innovation, but in the case of scarce liquidity, it has become more and more involuted;

There are more and more pump fun-like platforms, which is a sign of further bear market. Each round of bear market will have similar landmark events;

New innovations have not appeared in the currency circle, and the currency circle has become a gambling tool. There are local dog players and contract players everywhere. Most people will return to zero in the contract.

It is also difficult to make money on the chain. The sols on the hands of pump players have also been lost, and the community has become deserted;

Interest rate cuts are not a panacea;

Experience tells me that at this stage, I should observe more and act less;

Bitcoin is still the future, hold on to hope and survive.