阿信BTC_Axin338

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$OPN This coin is acting a little strange.

I’ve seen several big-name influencers criticizing the OPN team and saying all sorts of bad things about them.

But actions speak louder than words: you can see that OPN’s price has actually gone up.

When something unusual happens, there’s usually a reason.

Is it possible the team deliberately got them to do this?

The goal would be to make them bearish on OPN and sell all their tokens, so the big players could quickly accumulate enough and then drive the price up fast.

What do you think?

$MOVR Now that's what you call a market maker
It drops until you can't take it anymore, then the market maker pumps it
Same trick again: break below support to accumulate, refueling midair
Keep flying

Dogecoin ($DOGE ) is worth keeping an eye on, since it’s rebounding along with BTC amid the volatility. It fell during this downturn and is keeping up with the rebound, which means it’s clearly being controlled by market makers.

Some people say it looks really weak, and I just don’t get it. Of course it looks weak while it’s moving sideways. But when it really breaks out, do you think you’ll still be able to catch up? By then, it could shoot up, and you might not dare to get in—or you might not get the chance at all.

So right now, near the trend line, is a great opportunity to enter. Just set a stop-loss, and the risk-reward ratio is still very favorable.

10/5 $BTC Market Update
BTC: Don’t short it for now. Its decline was just a pullback after meeting resistance on its first rebound. When you look at its next rebound, the momentum and trading volume are definitely there. In other words, after consolidating and building up momentum again, when it makes another run at 87,000, it could very well break through for real, you know?

Also, this consolidation range on the daily chart has never been broken to the downside. From the daily chart’s perspective, as long as 82,500–83,000 holds, it’s still a strong consolidation.

So all I can say is: if you’re shorting near 87,000, it’s fine as long as you get in and out quickly. But if you hold on for too long, the risk could be high. Let’s see how things look tonight. At least I’m still holding my long position, and I’m not worried. We’ll see tonight.

　　10/5 $BTC price increase logic analysis：


　　Overall, broad-range consolidation. After liquidity hunting around resistance ~872, price then retraced.
　　The first time you test a resistance level, it usually can’t break through.
　　When the retracement drops to 70% of the Fibonacci level, it lines up with the POC. In the 12H timeframe, it is above the bullish OB. Of course, it can also break below support 850—because the support/resistance flip is not the bullish logic. Support is often used to be broken; if it isn’t broken, it can’t “set up” the next move.
　　The real bullish logic is: during the uptrend, pullbacks seek internal liquidity, then revisit the discounted area, find a bullish order block, and then continue higher.
　　After it breaks through the 872–873 resistance zone again, it’s likely to accelerate and run up to 900–930. Don’t short from the left side—because this time it’s very likely to sweep that batch of short orders!

Tomorrow will close the weekly chart

Today probably won’t be very calm

Big volatility is coming

It’s time to pick a side, everyone

Do you think $BTC is going to rise or fall?

　　This weekend’s BTC market is very dull
　　So dull it makes me want to swear
　　Some people say it’s related to the National Day holiday
　　But why is it still fluctuating so much on Oct 1st and 2nd?
　　Obviously it’s not really related to the National Day holiday
　　This is because the Americans are closed for the weekend—the liquidity is gone, the main players are on vacation, and the market makers aren’t doing their job, so volatility is naturally lower
　　Tomorrow the American main players are back—are you ready with your bullets?$BTC

　　$NEAR , which had been rising strongly all along, has also entered a correction
　　There is no coin that’s always strong
　　There is no coin that only goes up without ever falling
　　There is no coin that only moves in one direction upward
　　So don’t be like, “have faith.”
　　But having said that, if you zoom in on NEAR at the weekly level
　　it’s still a rare example of strength
　　From a medium-to-long-term perspective, it’s still a very good target
　　However, it lacks a big pullback
　　Don’t have unrealistic expectations in the short term—be careful of a big drop after a spike
　　After all, when the time comes, BTC and ETH will also need a big pullback after they spike $NEAR

Not all coins are this bullish.

For example, the altcoin king—the altcoin sentiment barometer $DOGE —is weaker.

Compared with XRP and SOL,

because it’s clearly still trading in a descending triangle range and hasn’t even touched the descending trendline yet.

So the choice is definitely greater than just working hard.

$SOL Very strong

Once it breaks 123-125

Then you’ll see 130-140

What do you think?

Big one’s coming

$XRP Can this be a real breakthrough this time?

What do you think?

　　The main force is biding its time
　　They’re going to kill more people
　　Because last night, $BTC only the people who just tapped the top and went short made money
　　There’s basically no chance to enter on the right side
　　This market maker is ridiculous
　　The market maker lures you into tapping the top and going short every time
　　The last time they tap the top, they’ll definitely wipe out the short-sellers
　　That’s what he’s playing
　　So dark and dirty—what a scummy market maker
　　You can only say that there are quite a lot of people trading on the right side, but the main force won’t give you this opportunity
　　They lure you to tap the top and go short on the left side
　　Once, twice, three times tapping the top—each time the shorts made money
　　In the final round, they directly ate the shorts, made everyone spit it all back, and all of them were liquidated,
　　The market maker is training your trading habits
　　If you don’t guess the top on the left side, you won’t make this money

If tonight you have to bet on a direction
$BTC —would you go short or long?
I would choose to go long, with a stop loss
The logic is as follows:
1. Both non-farm employment and unemployment rate are good for BTC
2. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds is falling, and U.S. stocks are rising
3. Technicals: BTC broke above 872 and pulled back. As long as it doesn't break 850, the bullish idea can remain. The downside 828–850 range is considered a breakout-trap zone; it's only for gathering enough liquidity for the next upward move (see the diagram, option 1). Unless it breaks back below 850 support again, it may continue to move lower (see the diagram, option 2).
Of course, if you want it to be more stable, wait for another breakout of the 872–873 resistance zone before going long—it’s much safer! But the risk-reward ratio will be a bit worse. You can’t have both. DYOR

Important, pay close attention—very, very important!
Please make sure you read through.
Why doesn’t A-Xin let you touch the top and short early at $BTC , $ETH :


1. Oil has fallen. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have also dropped.
And within the current macro trading framework, oil falling + Treasury yields (10-year) falling is a clear macro tailwind for BTC, which tends to push BTC’s price higher.

2. The entire macro transmission mechanism is as follows (four-step reaction from oil to BTC):
Oil price falls → lowers energy and transportation costs [inflation expectations (CPI/PCE) cool off] → markets debate the Fed’s rate cuts / easing → 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index fall (discount rates decline + discounted assets become less attractive) → risk-free yields fall / global liquidity is released → capital flows into risk assets / scarce assets (BTC & technology stocks)

3. Unless the following sell-off structure is confirmed (as shown in the chart), don’t go trying to short at the top against the trend. Instead, wait patiently for clear signals before making a decision.
Because in the macro environment I mentioned above (oil falling + Treasury yields falling), BTC should be going up. So if you want BTC to drop, you must first see technical confirmation of a downside structure before shorting. Otherwise, if a real breakout happens tonight—then the shorts will be in a very tragic situation.

10/2 $BTC Market tracking:
As expected, it’s going up. But don’t “hold out” without a plan.
For longs, consider taking partial profits in the resistance zone of 860–873. Set your stop-loss further out.
Be careful—after tonight’s Non-Farm Employment data is released, BTC could spike up then drop back sharply.
Don’t be like, “it’s going up—so I’ll just hold,” that’s a trading taboo.
If it really rises to 90,000, you’ll still get chances to enter. Typically it will move up in an “N-shaped” pattern. If you don’t pull back and miss it, that’s your loss. When it rushes up, it’s probably the last push. A big correction is definitely coming, sooner or later—it’s not far off now. Understand?

《U.S. Treasuries, Oil, and $BTC —What’s the Connection?》
1. Why do people say “U.S. Treasuries have a direct relationship with BTC”?
U.S. Treasuries (especially the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (US10Y) and real Treasury yields) are the mother of pricing for global risk assets. They exert the most direct funding-channel pressure or pull on BTC:
• Treasury yields rise → risk-free returns increase; funds tend to flow back to safer assets like Treasuries → BTC’s appeal as a high-risk/non-yield asset declines → downward pressure.
• Treasury yields fall → risk-free returns decrease; funds seek higher-beta returns → liquidity floods into BTC and other risk assets → BTC rises.

2. Oil isn’t completely unrelated to BTC (transmission mechanism)
Oil doesn’t directly determine BTC, but it is the “master switch” for global inflation. Oil prices transmit indirectly to BTC through the following chain:

• Oil surges → risk of secondary inflation → Fed becomes hawkish / delays rate cuts → Treasury yields spike → BTC comes under pressure.

3. Summary: If you had to summarize their macro transmission relationship in one sentence:
Oil is the “cause of inflation,” U.S. Treasuries are the “result of interest rates,”
while BTC is the “ultimate responder” to the opening and closing of global U.S. dollar liquidity gates.
Direct relationship: BTC vs. U.S. Treasury yields / the U.S. Dollar Index (highly negatively correlated; directly affects funding costs and risk appetite).
Indirect relationship: BTC vs. Oil (transmitted through the logic chain “Oil → Inflation → Treasuries/Interest Rates → BTC”).
Therefore, when doing macro analysis of BTC or judging higher-level trend directions, watching Treasury yields (and Fed policy expectations) is looking at the “immediate cause,” while observing oil prices is looking at the “remote cause.”