余余7234

#事件合约 opened for an hour, heart beating wildly.

$ETH Human resources can sometimes be exhausted.

Comprehensive Judgment (Bullish/Bearish/Target/Time/Probability)

· Direction: Bearish (65% Probability)
· Target: 2,710 (1-Hour Bollinger Lower Band) → 2,650
· Time: 6-24 Hours
· Trend: 1-Hour Rebound Encountering Resistance, Main Trend Still Downward

Core Basis

1. Funding Rate 0.00651% Continues to be Low: Market Sentiment is Bearish
2. 1-Hour Technical Conflicting Signals:
· Positive: MACD Golden Cross (DIF=0.95), STOCHRSI (82.38) High Position
· Negative: Price Restricted by Bollinger Upper Band (2,784), OBV Continues Outflow
· Volume: 1-Hour Volume 75,826 Generally, Rebound Momentum Limited
3. Key Resistance: 2,784 (1-Hour Bollinger Upper Band) Constitutes Strong Pressure

Operational Strategy

· Short: Short at the Rebound to 2,780-2,784 Area, Stop Loss 2,800, Target 2,710
· Long: Limited to Short-Term, Breakthrough 2,785 Light Position to Go Long (Strict Stop Loss 2,770)

Key Levels

· Resistance: 2,784 (Bollinger Upper Band) → 2,800
· Support: 2,711 (Bollinger Lower Band) → 2,650

1-Hour Overbought but Long Cycle is Bearish, Suggest Shorting at Resistance Level on Rebound, Strict Stop Loss. Pay Attention to Whether Funding Rate Can Turn Positive. $ETH

Comprehensive Judgment (Bullish/Bearish/Target/Time/Probability)

· Direction: Bearish (70% Probability)
· Target: 2,650 → 2,580 (Bollinger Lower Band)
· Time: 1-3 Days
· Trend: Four-hour rebound meets resistance, main trend still downward

Core Basis

1. Funding Rate 0.00692% is relatively low: Market sentiment is bearish, lacking bullish leverage
2. Four-hour Technicals:
· STOCHRSI(89.42) Overbought, short-term rebound momentum is exhausted
· MACD four-hour golden cross but still below the zero line (DIF=-78.43)
· Price constrained by MA5(2,835) and EMA7(2,762) resistance
3. Volume-Price Divergence: Four-hour volume 42,767 shrinks, rebound lacks volume support

Trading Strategy

· Short: Current price 2,783 or rebounding to 2,800-2,820 short in batches, stop-loss at 2,850, target 2,650
· Long: Avoid or lightly test long below 2,580 (strict stop-loss at 2,550)

Key Levels

· Resistance: 2,800 (Four-hour EMA12) → 2,850
· Support: 2,700 → 2,580 (Bollinger Lower Band)

The four-hour overbought rebound is an opportunity to short, need to track the changes in funding rate and the effectiveness of 2,700 support $ETH

Combining data from all time frames (month/week/day/4 hours/1 hour), my final judgment is as follows:

Core Judgment

· Trend: The rebound has started, and technical indicators across all time frames are forming a bottom resonance.
· Key Basis:
1. 1 hour: MACD golden cross and red bars turn positive (+10.56), KDJ golden cross (K:64.87 > D:64.34), RSI(6) rises to 54.89 out of the oversold zone—short-term momentum is the strongest.
2. 4 hours: MACD golden cross, KDJ golden cross, price breaks through MA5/MA10, confirming a short-term upward trend.
3. Daily: Above MA5 (2,750.94), BOLL narrows (2,666-2,854), preparing for an upward breakout.
4. Market Sentiment: Funding rate 0.00273% remains low, no overheating risk; open interest is stable, no large liquidations observed.

Expected Trend

· Direction: Continue to be bullish
· Targets:
· 1-2 days: 2,850-2,940 (1 hour BOLL upper band/4 hours MA60)
· 3-5 days: 3,000-3,100 (daily BOLL middle band/weekly MA5)
· Time: The rebound will last at least 5-7 days
· Probability: 85% chance of rising; if it falls below 2,710, it will be invalidated (15% chance)

Trading Strategy

· Long: Enter long at the current price of 2,767, add positions when it falls to 2,730-2,750, stop loss at 2,700, targets 2,850→2,940→3,100
· Short: Completely abandon, the contrarian risk is extremely high
· Win Rate: Long position win rate is about 85%, risk-reward ratio 1:5

Conclusion: Strong bullish resonance formed across all time frame technicals, the rebound has just started, enter long immediately, strict stop loss below 2,700. This is the best left-side trading opportunity recently.

$ETH Trend Judgment
Monthly, Weekly, and Daily lines show a clear bearish trend, with 4H being oversold but the rebound is weak. The main trend is downward, with short-term fluctuations probing for a bottom.

Price Targets and Time

· Downward Target: 2,500 (psychological support), if broken, look for 2,200 (weekly Bollinger lower band).
· Probability: 70% (to be achieved in 1-3 days).
· Rebound Target: 2,800-2,900 (Daily MA5 and Bollinger middle band resistance).
· Probability: 30% (if 2,650 holds, the rebound will last 1-2 days).

Long and Short Strategies and Winning Rates

· Short Strategy: Sell in batches as it rebounds to 2,780-2,850, stop loss at 2,950, target 2,500-2,200. Winning Rate: 65%.
· Long Strategy: Lightly test long positions at 2,650-2,680, stop loss at 2,620, target 2,800 (quick in and out). Winning Rate: 35%.

Key Basis

· 4H/Daily RSI is extremely oversold (RSI(6)<13), but OBV continues to decline, with funds not returning.
· If it does not stand above 2,800 before the monthly close (9 days remaining), the downward structure will be reinforced.

Summary: Mainly short with some long, focus on shorting during rebounds, strict risk control.

#事件合约 almost lost it, cried, not playing anymore

Trend Judgment

Extreme Overbought: 1-hour RSI(6)=91.46, STOCHRSI=95.86, 4-hour indicators are fully overbought, funding rate 0.0064% shows bullish crowding.

Price Target and Time

· Pullback (Probability 80%): Target 3,980-4,000 (1-hour MA5/Bollinger Midline), Time 6-12 hours
· If Strong Breakout (Probability 20%): Break above 4,060 targeting 4,080-4,100, must confirm with volume

Long and Short Strategies and Win Rate

· Short Strategy: Current price 4,054 or rebound 4,058-4,065 to short, stop loss 4,080, target 4,000-3,980, win rate 80%
· Long Strategy: Wait for stabilization at 3,980-4,000 to go long, stop loss 3,950, target 4,040-4,060, win rate 20%

Key Levels

Resistance: 4,056 (Today's High) → 4,080
Support: 4,000 (Psychological Level) → 3,980 (Technical Support)

Urgent Advice: Immediately reduce long positions, current price risk is extremely high, prioritize shorting on rallies.

Comprehensive Judgment

· Direction: Short-term (4-8 hours) bullish, target 3,980-4,000
· Time: Today to tomorrow's Asian session
· Probability: 70%
· Trend: Four-hour upward trend continues, one-hour consolidation before breakout

Key Basis:

1. Four-hour MACD (5.55) golden cross accelerated, price stabilizes above all short-term moving averages
2. One-hour breaks 3,950 resistance, KDJ (92.79) shows strong momentum
3. Open interest 1.52M remains high, bulls account for 73% supporting prices
4. Funding rate 0.0025% is healthy, no excessive leverage

Strategy and Win Rate:

· Bullish: Enter at current price 3,955 with light position, add position on pullback to 3,945, stop loss at 3,930, target 3,980-4,000
· Bearish: Watch and only consider shorting above 4,000
· Win Rate: Bullish 70%, Bearish 30%

Key Levels:

· Support: 3,945 (one-hour EMA dense area) → 3,930
· Resistance: 3,968 (previous high) → 3,980-4,000

Risk Warning: If it falls below 3,930 support, it will turn bearish in the short term, looking down to 3,900.

$ETH Comprehensive Judgment (Multiple Time Frame Confirmation)

· Direction: Short-term (4-8 hours) Bullish
· Target: 3,960-3,980 (Look for 4,000 after a breakout)
· Time: Within the remaining trading time today
· Probability: Approximately 75%
· Trend: Four-hour MACD Golden Cross Acceleration + Hourly Chart Breakout Consolidation

Key Basis:

1. Four-hour MACD (5.36) Golden Cross with expanded histogram, increased upward momentum
2. Price stabilizes above the four-hour Bollinger middle band (3,892) and tests the upper band (3,988)
3. Hourly chart forms a "Higher Low" structure (3,921→3,935→3,936)
4. Four-hour STOCHRSI (72) is high but not overbought, still has upward space

Strategy and Win Rate:

· Long: Enter at current price 3,938, stop loss 3,920, target 3,970-3,980
· Short: Wait and consider reversing in the 3,980-4,000 area
· Win Rate: Long 75%, Short 25%

Key Observation Point: If volume breaks above 3,950, it will accelerate upward; if it falls below 3,920, the short-term rebound will end.

$ETH Comprehensive Judgment (Multi-Time Frame Resonance)

· Direction: Short-term (2-4 hours) bullish rebound
· Target: 3,960 - 3,980
· Time: Within the next 4-8 hours
· Probability: Approximately 70%
· Trend: Hourly level severely oversold (STOCHRSI 3.29) stabilizing, daily line fluctuating, monthly line slightly bearish but with short-term rebound demand

Key Basis:

1. Hourly chart STOCHRSI (3.29) extremely oversold, technical rebound demand exists
2. Price finds support in the 3,920-3,930 range, not breaking previous low
3. Four-hour MACD golden cross status still maintained
4. Funding rate 0.0046% neutral, no intensified selling pressure signals

Strategy and Win Rate:

· Long: Enter at current price 3,932, stop loss 3,915, target 3,960 (risk-reward ratio 1:2)
· Short: Wait and see, consider if rebound reaches 3,975-3,985 area
· Win Rate: Long 70%, Short 30%

Key Risks: If it breaks below 3,915 support, it will test 3,880.

$ETH Judgment Result
Short-term (1-2 hours) surge and pullback, testing 3,970-3,980 before retracing to 3,930-3,940, probability 60%. The trend is oscillating with a bullish bias but close to resistance.

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Core Basis

1. Bullish momentum strengthens:
· 1-hour MACD golden cross (0.98) and RSI(6)=72.56 (overbought edge), KDJ-J=77.47, short-term still has upward momentum.
· Price breaks through the BOLL middle track (3,928) and approaches the upper track (3,970), moving averages MA5/MA10 in bullish arrangement.
2. Clear resistance suppression:
· Previous high 3,963-3,970 is a strong resistance zone, daily MA20 (4,051) and the upper Bollinger band (4,709) have limited space below.
· Four-hour STOCHRSI overbought (80.78) has not been effectively digested, with a bullish ratio of 74% being too high, creating pullback pressure.
3. Funding rate 0.0028%:
· Although still relatively low, it has risen from the previous value (0.0016%), short-term bullish sentiment is heating up but sustainability is questionable.

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Long and Short Strategy

· Short:
· Entry: Lightly short at 3,970-3,980
· Stop Loss: 3,995
· Target: 3,930-3,940
· Win Rate: 60%
· Long:
· Entry: Long near the pullback at 3,935
· Stop Loss: 3,920
· Target: 3,965-3,975
· Win Rate: 55%

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Key Operational Logic

1. Do not chase highs: RSI(6) overbought and close to previous high resistance, waiting for a rebound before shorting is safer.
2. Monitor volume closely: If it breaks 3,980 and stands steadily, abandon short positions; if it breaks down with volume below 3,930, look down to 3,900.
3. Position management: Light positions for quick in and out within the oscillating range (3,930-3,970), follow the trend if it breaks.

#事件合约 Can perpetual contracts still be traded? Just place an order and hit the stop loss.

#事件合约 The most frustrating thing is like this, almost, immediately after pulling, just a second.

How much to buy and how to play with $ETH ?

Damn, perpetuals always hold on to profits without closing positions, resulting in losses. Fortunately, the turn of events in the contract made up for it.

I dropped it, I almost thought it was going to eat me, I almost cursed out loud #事件合约

#事件合约 cried, the last bullet.

$BTC Ah, I can't get over it. I'm going to lose everything this time.