Bitcoin reserves on Coinbase have been decreasing rapidly since February 2024.

The main culprit behind this decline in reserves is Spot ETFs.

While there were 1,044,997 Bitcoins on February 18, 2024, reserves on the Coinbase exchange fell to 878K due to increased demand due to Spot ETFs. Given the potential interest rate cut in September 2024, what changes do you think will happen to Coinbase reserves?

Even though the market seems negative, Bitcoin shows optimism. With this decline in reserves, demand for Bitcoin appears to be increasing. This is a good indicator for this cryptocurrency.

Written by burakkesmeci.

We are approaching the daily gap level where I expect the price to rise.

I have indicated levels that I expect will serve as support on the open interest indicator.

We broke the Coinbase Premium Index trend where we were rejected. Even though the price is falling, the indicator continues to rise. This is positive data.

As seen in the funding rate, people are opening bullish trades. I think an uptrend will start after one last manipulation.

An increase in the Estimated Leverage Ratio indicates that people are opening trades with high leverage. Manipulation would be healthy to throw these players out.

An increase in the total number of coins transferred from exchanges indicates that selling pressure is decreasing. Coinbase's advanced data shows a positive and gradual increase.

Written by TraderOasis

We are approaching the daily gap level where I expect the price to rise.

I have indicated levels that I expect will serve as support on the open interest indicator.

We broke the Coinbase Premium Index trendline where we were rejected. Even though the price is falling, the indicator continues to rise. This is positive data.

As seen in the funding rates, people are opening bullish trades. I think an uptrend will start after one last manipulation.

An increase in the Estimated Leverage Ratio indicates that people are opening trades with high leverage. Manipulation would be healthy to throw this player out.

An increase in the total number of coins transferred from exchanges indicates that selling pressure is decreasing. Coinbase's follow-up data shows a positive and gradual increase.

Written by TraderOasis.

Bull market peaks mark transitions between Bitcoin cycles and are characterized by a series of interconnected factors.

One of the main factors of the market is the high profit rate among smaller and newer entrants.

Profit maximization efforts in bullish periods attract many less experienced investors, and this results in relatively high unrealized profits.

For now, we have not seen such a scenario and Bitcoin is following a modest growth curve compared to previous cycles.

This doesn't mean that it will stay like this for the next few months, but it does put into perspective that we will need higher prices to see a higher risk structure with respect to the long-term cycle.

Additionally, the global search for Bitcoin has not kept up with the price evolution we have seen in the last 12 months.

Demand remains moderate, but we will need updates to continue to climb higher. It's only a matter of time for it to happen.

Written by caueconomy.

To predict the top of a bull market, what is more important than big whales is the inflow of small whales and general investors.

This chart shows the realized market capitalization of Bitcoin in the range of 10 to 100 and represents the expected flow of funds from small whales and retail investors.

This chart, which shows a gentle rise at the beginning of the bull cycle, rises sharply from the middle to the end, and the cycle ends after Bitcoin's strong rise.

Since 2024 is the time when the inflow of small whales and general investors begins to increase rapidly, and the second half of the bull market has just begun, the possibility of additional capital flows and a strong rise in Bitcoin can be seen as opening up in the near future.

Written by Crypto Dan

The Reserve Risk Indicator combines key metrics such as VOCD, MVOCD and Signals. This composite chart depicts long-term Bitcoin holders' confidence in the current price, guiding investment decisions.

Calculating Reserve Risk involves measures such as Bitcoin Days Crashed (BDD) and Adjusted Bitcoin Days Crashed (ABDD), which normalize the circulating supply of Bitcoin. Other metrics included in the graph are Coin Value (Days) Destroyed (VOCD), calculated as VOCD = ∑ (Daily Bitcoin price * adjusted ABDD), and MVOCD, which is the median of VOCD to average the data. This metric reflects the accumulated trust among holders over time, assisting in identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities.

Historical analysis shows that periods of historically low Reserve Risk produce outsized returns, confirming its relevance in assessing market sentiment and investor behavior.

Historically, when MVOCD exceeds Bitcoin price, it signals resistance and the formation of a local top. The most recent bearish signal occurred from late March to early April 2024, and since then, Bitcoin has not reached a new high.

An interesting fact to note is that from 2017 to early 2018, there were two bearish signals, and in 2021, the bearish signal appeared before the historical peak. So, even if this combination of metrics is effective, it is still possible to see new all-time highs, depending on how blockchain data adjusts according to long-term investor behavior. For now, the current peak of $73,800 is defined as the historical maximum for 2024.

There is an inverse relationship between Bitcoin price and miner reserves. As the price of Bitcoin increases, miner reserves tend to decrease, and vice versa.

Bitcoin's price peak around March 2024 corresponds to a significant drop in miner reserves. This could indicate that miners are selling their reserves to take advantage of high prices.

These charts are valuable for understanding how miner behavior (in terms of holding or selling Bitcoin) might influence market prices and can be used to make informed decisions. As you can see, miner reserves are decreasing, which means the bull market is still ongoing.

Written by Amr Taha.

Short-term holders pointed out that Bitcoin was taken in losses when it fell below 1 during the last downturn.

After falling below level 1 for intraday trading, if we stay above MA34 simultaneously, we have reached a possible reaction zone. Short-term holders suggest that we have entered a potential reaction area during panic selling.

Price showed support at 66k, resulting in a short-term increase of 6%.

At 1.01, selling pressure started, leading to an increase. Since the price is in this range, it may continue to face stressful pressure. The best buying opportunities in a bullish trend are in the 0.95-0.90 range.

Wait for it to fall below 1 for intraday trading, wait for the green area a little longer.

Thank you for reading.

Written by XBTManager

The frustrating flat movement on the price charts has been going on for quite some time, and market interest is declining.

Funding rates, which usually react significantly to small price movements, are now showing no movement.

This situation is the best time for futures whales to accumulate new positions.

Open interest has increased rapidly since late May.

Whale futures provide strong volatility to the market.

However, even though the market appears negative, there is optimism about Bitcoin (BTC). In a gloomy market atmosphere, BTC still shows strong potential.

Written by Mignolet.

At this point, we have reached a 4-year low for the amount of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges.

The fund has raised a total of over 1,000,000 BTC to provide Bitcoin ETFs, the best part is that this is just the beginning!

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve rates remain as high as ever, it's only a matter of time before the money supply bursts into another huge bubble.

1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin

Endless money printing = Eternal Bitcoin growth

Even though the market appears negative, optimism towards Bitcoin remains high. Under current conditions, Bitcoin has great potential to grow and develop. Written by Kirill Evans.

The True Market Mean Price (TMMP) and AVIV Ratio indicators offer an innovative approach to evaluating the average price of digital assets, especially effective for Bitcoin. In contrast to Realized Price, TMMP uses a methodology that considers market dynamics and investor behavior over time.

TMMP is calculated by dividing the difference between Realized Market Cap and Thermo Market Cap by time-weighted active supply (Active Supply). This formula provides a measure that reflects the average market price of a digital asset, considering historical transactions and current circulating supply.

AVIV Ratio complements TMMP by comparing active market valuations to realized valuations, highlighting significant differences that may indicate investment opportunities or risks. This metric, developed to provide a deeper understanding of Bitcoin market behavior, has proven to be a powerful tool for analysts and investors seeking to understand and anticipate price trends in the cryptocurrency market.

An important consideration: when the AVIV Ratio turns yellow or red, Bitcoin is facing resistance, signaling that investors are distributing their coins and the top of the cycle is near.

1⃣ Short Term Holder (STH) Activities:

STH moved their BTC to exchanges, as shown by the net profit/loss graph. This behavior indicates that STH is selling in panic when prices fall. As you can see, they are selling at a loss.

2⃣ BTC Flow to Accumulation Address:

While STH sells at a loss, long-term investors buy when prices fall, as shown by the large amount of Bitcoin flowing to accumulation addresses on June 11.

✅ Summary:

Consider whether it's worth selling at a loss and giving your Bitcoin to someone else, especially in a bull market.

Many people think like this: "The price went down, so I'll sell now and buy back at a lower price." Trust me, it doesn't work. I myself have tried it in the last bull market. Often, doing nothing is the best option.

If you liked this post, please leave a like, comment, and follow my profile on X.

Written by IT Tech.

1⃣ Short Term Holder (STH) Activities:

STH moved their BTC to exchanges, as shown by the net profit/loss graph. This behavior indicates that STH sells in panic when prices fall. As you can see, they are selling at a loss.

2⃣ BTC Flow to Accumulation Address:

While STH sold at a loss, long-term investors bought on the dip, as shown by the large amount of Bitcoin flowing into accumulation addresses on June 11.

✅ Summary:

Consider whether it's worth selling at a loss and giving your Bitcoin to someone else, especially in a bull market.

Many people think like this: "The price is down, so I'll sell now and buy back lower." Trust me, it doesn't work. I myself have tried it in the last bull market. Often, doing nothing is the best option.

If you liked this post, please leave a like, comment, and follow my profile on X.

Written by IT Tech.

1⃣ Short Term Holder (STH) Activities:

STHs move their BTC to exchanges, as shown by the net profit/loss graph. This behavior indicates that STH is selling in panic when prices fall. As you can see, they are selling at a loss.

2⃣ BTC Flow to Accumulation Address:

While STH sells at a loss, long-term investors buy when prices fall, as shown by the large amount of Bitcoin flowing into accumulation addresses on June 11.

✅ Summary:

Consider whether it's worth selling at a loss and giving your Bitcoin to someone else, especially in a bull market.

Many people think like this: "The price went down, so I'll sell now and buy back at a lower price." Trust me, it doesn't work. I've tried it myself in the last bull market. Often, doing nothing is the best option.

If you liked this post, please leave a like, comment, and follow my profile on X.

Written by IT Tech

More than 20,000 Bitcoins flowed into the whale's wallet. It seems that whales took advantage of yesterday's Bitcoin correction and accumulated additional amounts.

Whales appear to have taken advantage of yesterday's Bitcoin correction and increased their holdings.

- In the latest cryptocurrency news, more than 20,000 Bitcoins have flowed into the wallets of 'whales' or big investors.
- This shows that these investors have taken advantage of the Bitcoin price correction that occurred yesterday to increase the amount of Bitcoin they own.
- Even though the cryptocurrency market is generally showing a negative trend, Bitcoin still seems to be the main choice for large investors.
- This shows strong optimism towards Bitcoin despite uncertain market conditions.
- Thus, even though the market is experiencing a downturn, Bitcoin still shows great potential.

Write by abramchart.

After Bitcoin recently failed to surpass $72,000, market participants' investment enthusiasm began to fade.

The number of active Bitcoin addresses shows how many wallets are actively transferring coins. After peaking in March, this number has decreased significantly due to Bitcoin's correction and sideways movement for approximately three months.

Bitcoin's situation is like this, but altcoin investor sentiment, which has been sluggish recently, is bound to be worse.

It is difficult to know the exact time, but the end of the adjustment period usually occurs when the psychology of market participants has declined significantly, as it is now.

However, if Bitcoin establishes a major direction first, altcoins will also move accordingly in the second half of 2024.

Optimism remains for Bitcoin, even though the market currently appears negative.

Written by Crypto Dan.

Coinbase's biggest Ethereum spend of the year (336K+): What does it mean?

What is behind this expenditure exceeding $1 billion?

5th Withdrawal Exceeds 150K

Analyzing Coinbase 2024 data, we can see this is the 5th time that more than 150,000 Ethereum was withdrawn from the exchange.

These large transactions (done in one day) ranged between $400 million and $1.1 billion each, it would be too optimistic to think that individual investors were behind them. It is very possible that this significant Ethereum withdrawal was driven by whales or an as yet unknown institution.

If this is not an internal movement (sometimes exchanges do this), we have quite positive indicators for the long term.

✅Comments

While Coinbase's significant Ethereum withdrawal is noteworthy, the exact reasons behind it and its impact on the market remain unclear.

However, we observed similar activity on Coinbase before Bitcoin Spot ETF trading began. The $1.17 billion withdrawal on June 12, 2024, may have been driven by whales or institutions anticipating a rise in Ethereum prices along with the introduction of the Spot ETF.

Whether this assumption is correct will become clear in the coming days. However, such moves that reduce circulating supply (high demand) are expected to have a positive impact on prices in the medium to long term.

Written by burakkesmeci

Tomorrow's big news is very important for financial markets, especially related to the US Federal Reserve and CPI data, as it can significantly influence market movements. The Federal Reserve (Fed) may decide to keep the Federal Funds Rate fixed.

The chart shows Bitcoin price crossing below the UTXO age bands for Short Term Holders (1d - 1w) and Medium Term Holders (1w - 1m). This crossing may indicate a period of increased selling activity from short-term holders. This could be associated with market corrections or panic selling during price volatility.

The interaction between Bitcoin price and the 1 week to 1 month UTXO age band highlights the impact of short-term holders on the market. Periods where price crosses these bands may indicate points of increased market activity, where new buyers may be more inclined to sell their holdings.

This intersection can serve as an indicator of market sentiment. When the price falls below the UTXO age band, it may signal bearish sentiment and increased selling pressure. Conversely, when the price rises above it, this could indicate bullish sentiment and accumulation by new buyers.

The highlighted sections often coincide with price corrections.

These moments are very important for understanding market dynamics and potential future price movements, as they reflect the behavior of most market participants.

Written by Amr Taha.

The decline in Bitcoin holdings by miners reached 50% from its peak. It has been more than 5,000 days, or 14 years, since Bitcoin miners' reserves were low.

To provide context:

14 years ago, Satoshi was still active in the Bitcoin project, there were no altcoins, Obama was still President, and it would still be another 10 years until Michael Saylor and MSTR bought their first Bitcoin.

Coupled with higher demand, lower inflation, we continue to move towards extraordinary supply shortages in the next few years.

Companies and investors that are far-sighted enough to understand the long-term implications of supply will be highly successful. Slowly... then suddenly.

Written by Papa.

Between mid-April and May, the crypto market experienced exhaustion in price action, largely due to derivatives market consolidation, despite positive macro news in the industry.

During this period, the funding rate indicated support for the bullish trading range. Additionally, the recent spike above the 50-day moving average by the open interest value indicates a growing trend of long leveraged positions being opened. In contrast, stable coin exchange reserve ratios remained flat, indicating that leveraged position sizes continue to be relatively small.

Additionally, the output profit ratio spent by short-term holders (SOPR) reflects the increase in money FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) after the All-Time High (ATH).

I believe a catalyst will be needed to drive price action higher in the near term, but long leverage traders would target $76,000, while shorts would target $63,000 in the current environment.

Written by ShivenMoodley