唯恋-叶枫

$ETH Many troops stand up!

1. Support Analysis
Short-term support: The recent low occurred at 2623.57 (November 21, 2025), followed by prices forming a local bottom in the range of 2704.33-2858.16.

Medium-term support: The range of 2750-2800 provided multiple price rebounds in late November, with the lows on November 22 and 23 reaching 2704.33 and 2768.291 respectively.

2. Resistance Analysis

Short-term resistance: The range of 3050-3100 repeatedly suppressed price increases in late November (e.g., the highest on November 26 was 3045.0, and the highest on November 28 was 3099.0)

Key resistance: The dense trading area of 3400-3500 at the beginning of November formed significant resistance, corresponding to the rebound high in mid-November (e.g., November 9 at 3623.25) and the peak of fund outflows (November 11 had a single-day net outflow of 360 million)

Open long position 2780 Target 2850
Stop loss 2610

$PAXG Gold has experienced a high and then a drop today. Technically, the 30-minute level shows that the 38ma and the middle band of Bollinger Bands are providing resistance. It is suggested to sell gold on a rebound to 4078-4083 in the evening, with a stop loss at 4090 and take profit at 4040; below, pay attention to the support range of 4040-4045, and if it stops falling at that time, consider buying low.

$BANANAS31
meme coin is not so easy to be empty, it will rise

$ETH Air Force assembly, becoming empty

Short strategy: If the price rebounds to a key resistance level and shows weakness, consider this plan, aimed at capturing a pullback market.

Entry position: It is necessary to confirm that the price rebounds above the key resistance area of 3960 - 4000 USD but lacks momentum.

Stop-loss position: The stop-loss must be set above the resistance area, such as above 4150 USD. If the price strongly breaks through this position, it means the downward structure may be disrupted.

Take-profit position: The first target can be aimed at 3900 - 3950 USD. If selling pressure is strong, the price may further drop to the 3800 3870 USD area.

It's useless, it triggers the bank's risk control system. Cannot be解除.

Forecast for dual-stage implementation
First Stage 220 points and above
Second Stage 190 points

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$ETH

💎 Summary: Priority of Decision-Making for Short Positions**
1. Optimal Timing (High Win Rate): Price rebounds to $2600-$2635 + Technical reversal signals (such as Evening Star + RSI divergence) + Macroeconomic negative factors (such as CPI exceeding expectations).
2. Suboptimal Timing (Medium Risk): Price stagnates at $2530-$2550, or directly breaks below $2500** (the dividing line between bulls and bears) and then confirms a pullback.
3. **Strictly Avoid: Break above $2650 or large whale short position liquidation (on-chain monitoring alerts), need to pause short position plans.

> **Key Action Tips** (Based on the latest updates from July 6):
> - **Today’s Priority Observation**: Results of the $2600 resistance test, remain on the sidelines until a reversal signal appears;

Target 2460 2480
The market is like a battlefield; discipline is armor. Be patient and wait for high-probability signals to preserve capital in the bull-bear game, and seek to win.

The time has come for $ETH , empty

$ETH
Optimal Shorting 💎 Summary: Decision-making priority and action guide for opening short positions
1. Optimal Timing (High Win Rate):
- Price rebounds to $2520-$2550 + Technical reversal signals appear (e.g., Evening Star + RSI Divergence) + Macroeconomic negative news (CPI exceeds expectations).
2. Suboptimal Timing (Medium Risk):
- Price stagnates between $2470-$2490, or directly increases volume to **break below $2420 (bull-bear divide) and then pulls back for confirmation.
3. Strictly Avoid Scenarios:
- Volume breaks above $2560 or large whale closes short position (alerts from on-chain monitoring tools), shorting plans must be paused.

Key Action Tips (Based on the latest updates from July 5):
Today's Priority Strategy: Observe the resistance test results at $2520, remain cautious until reversal signals appear;
> On-chain Monitoring: Track the remaining 4446 ETH short positions of the “insider” and be wary of short squeezes if the price approaches this level;
Light Position Trial Principle: “Breakout Shorting” positions should be reduced by 50% compared to “Shorting at Resistance Levels,” quick in and out to avoid policy black swans.
Target $2420 Stop Loss $2560

The market is like a battlefield; discipline is the armor. Patiently wait for high-probability signals to preserve capital in the long-short game, ready to seize victory $ETH

$BTC Black Friday has arrived

7.4 Market Analysis

1. News: If altcoins struggle to follow the upward trend (especially after Ethereum breaks out), those holding cash need to reduce positions at the right time to avoid liquidity exhaustion that could interrupt rebounds.

If the Middle East conflict escalates (such as the US-Iran situation), it may trigger risk-off selling; pay attention to breaking news.

2. Technical Analysis: Bitcoin has broken the key resistance at $109,000 (a critical dividing line between bulls and bears). The 4-hour chart shows six consecutive bullish candles breaking through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a MACD golden cross and increased momentum, while the trading volume is expanding, indicating bull dominance.

The RSI has entered the overbought range (above 60), while the MACD shows a bearish divergence signal; the short-term moving average deviation is too high, indicating a risk of a pullback.

From the 1-hour cycle technical analysis, the current candlestick chart has produced three consecutive bearish candles, with prices continuously declining towards the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that bearish momentum is dominant. The KDJ indicator has formed a death cross among its three lines and is continuing to diverge downwards, further confirming the short-term downtrend; the MACD's fast and slow lines are gradually converging, and the red column's momentum is continuously diminishing. The $109,600-$110,000 area is a strong resistance zone; if it encounters resistance and falls back, it may trigger a pullback to $107,000-$107,500.

Ethereum has risen over 9% in a single day, driving market sentiment; if it stabilizes above $2,580, it may further open up upward space to $2,720-$2,860.

Trading Tips: For Bitcoin, if it stabilizes above 108,500, look for 109,800 - new highs; if it breaks below, look for 107,600 - 106,500.

For Ethereum, if it stabilizes above 2,550, look for 2,620 - 2,680; if it breaks below, look for 2,480 - 2,400.

Can't grab it, simply can't grab it 🤯

??? Why are you playing this too? 😂

The Americans haven't opened the market yet and it has already dropped below 100,000. At 8 AM when the market opens, it will drop directly to 95.

Big pancake 95 Ethereum 18 Solana 100 😂

Directly stuck, facial recognition is also stuck. Can't grab it on time 😂

$PAXG
Gold returns to 3300, reports indicate Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities
Spot gold has broken through the 3300 dollar mark, for the first time since May 9. US media reports that American intelligence agencies have discovered that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities.

$ETH 1840 Open Air

### **Core Logic and Key Factors**
1. **Short-term Technical Signals**
- **Resistance Level**: $1850-1860 (4-hour high + EMA30 pressure), breaking this would increase the risk for short positions.
- **Support Level**: $1800 (psychological level + weekly support), if broken, it may accelerate to $1760-1780.
- **Indicator Status**: 4-hour RSI (49) is neutral to weak, MACD death cross is emerging, but trading volume is shrinking, caution is needed for a rebound correction.

2. **Market Sentiment and Correlation**
- **Bitcoin Drag Risk**: If BTC fails to stabilize at $97,000, the ETH/BTC exchange rate may weaken further, amplifying the decline.
- **Capital Diversion Pressure**: Recent market focus has shifted to SOL and other altcoins, with weak capital inflow to ETH (on-chain data shows an increase in net inflow to exchanges).

3. **On-chain Data and Event Risks**
- **Whale Movements**: An address holding 100,000 ETH transferred 5,000 ETH to Binance in the last 24 hours, which may imply short-term selling pressure.

### **Short Position Operation Optimization Suggestions**
- **Position Management**:
- **Current Short Stop Loss**: Recommended to set at $1865 (previous high + 3% margin for error).
- **Take Profit in Batches**:
✅ First Target $1800 (close 50%).
✅ Second Target $1760 (remaining position to follow stop loss).
- **Risk Hedging**:
- If BTC suddenly surges, a small BTC/ETH hedging position can be opened.
- **Key Observation Points**:
✅ **$1850 Sell Order Wall Thickness** (Coinbase/Binance spot market).
✅ **ETH Perpetual Contract Funding Rate** (if negative rate expands, shorts need to be wary of short squeeze risk).

$ETH 1810 Open Short Short-term target 1780

1. **Key Technical Signals**
- **Resistance Level**: $1810 (4-hour EMA100 and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) → A breakout may trigger short stop-loss, targeting $1840-$1860.
- **Support Level**: $1775 (recent low and on-chain cost area) → A drop below may accelerate downward to $1750 (psychological level).
- **Indicator Signals**:
- **RSI (62)**: Approaching overbought zone, but no obvious divergence yet;
- **MACD**: Bearish cross emerging on 4-hour chart, daily momentum bars shrinking, increasing probability of short-term pullback;
- **Bollinger Bands**: Price touching the upper band ($1825), if it narrows, it may retreat to the middle band ($1790).

2. **On-chain Data and Sentiment**
- **Exchange Net Inflows**: $120,000 ETH (approximately $216 million) net inflow to exchanges in the past 24 hours, short-term selling pressure rising.
- **Whale Activity**: Addresses holding >10,000 ETH reduced holdings by 3.2% in the past 7 days, indicating large holders are reducing positions at highs.
- **Funding Rate**: Perpetual contract funding rate +0.05% (bulls dominate), if the price drops, it may trigger a long liquidation wave.

**Position Opening Risk Control**
- **Stop Loss**: Strictly set at $1830 (20 dollars above resistance level), to guard against short squeeze risk.
- **Leverage Suggestion**: ≤3x (if the price drops to $1775, leverage automatically reduces to 2x).

2. **Dynamic Take Profit**
- **First Take Profit Level**: $1780 (close 60% of position, locking in profits);
- **Second Take Profit Level**: $1750 (close 30%, remaining 10% to follow up take profit to $1720).