萧弈杭

Since the big pancake started rising on August 17, the daily chart has finally printed a triple consecutive bearish candle (three consecutive declines)! Before that, although there were several pullbacks and the daily chart had already been diverging for many days, it still hadn’t closed three consecutive bearish candles—then it rebounded.

Now the daily MACD dead cross is even more obvious, and the MA5 has also moved below the MA10 heading downward. Today, it’s recommended to continue holding the short position and look for opportunities to add to the shorts! ​​​

So top-tier or not? Bitcoin got smashed! Today 79,600—let’s keep shorting

Especially with Ethereum—how many times have you shorted around 2520, or gone long after it hits 2500, then started shorting in batches? It’s been 20 days—how many times have you done it? Tell me! Easy points, money-sending orders, like a cash machine! ​​​

As long as you come up around here, without hesitation! In the last twenty days, Ethereum has already accumulated profit opportunities of more than a thousand and a bit. Even if you only do “ant” positions of 10 each time, you can still make over 10,000 U. Count it yourself—how many times have you started from 2520 and above 2500, and how many times have you then pulled back by 80–130 points to take the win.

Ethereum current price 2516 short, stop loss 2570, target 2440-2380.
I’ve shorted around this spot a dozen times before, and every time it paid off nicely. Now I’m going to short it again [haha][haha][haha] ​​​

Tonight’s 78700 once again is top-tier—added to the position with more! Since Friday’s reminder to get close to around 81500 and then go empty, after that we had another window from the Non-Farm data through the weekend, leaving gaps around 80000–80200. Yesterday we went short around 79100–79200. Today, after breaking above 78400, it rebounded to 78700 and I added more shorts. In this run, whether it was doing one trade at a time for the swing or rolling and adding all the way through, it’s been a huge profit.

Also, there’s the Ethereum short at 2515, reaching the first short-term target at 2440. It’s really true: above 2500, whenever you short Ethereum, you make money. ​​​

81300-80200-79100 空头一路下探；once it breaks 78400, it rebounds to 78700 and then continue adding more shorts. For the short-term first target, 77400-77000—reduce a little first. Then we’ll see how price reacts to the support at the previous low 76100, and also the support around 77000, to judge whether we can hedge by opening some long positions.

No matter how you look at it, the daily chart will definitely have a major pullback at least once.

Do you all not like comparing with gold? And I also summarized the pattern for you a long time ago: over the past half year, the big trend has been highly consistent—especially that gold leads, with Bitcoin following afterward. Last week, gold’s weekly chart already showed a pullback.

In the previous big rally (at the same time, Bitcoin was still hovering around 64,000, and I had already said it would follow gold to rise and break above 70,000—though after 72,000 it fell outside my expectations, and I made two wrong trades), gold also surged ahead of Bitcoin by more than a week, then consolidated in a high range for a week, and only afterward pulled back.

Last month, gold first broke above the April high but barely failed to break the May high before pulling back. Bitcoin then followed through and broke the April high, but it didn’t reach the May high of 82,800, and it pulled back. Gold’s weekly chart turned bearish for two consecutive weeks, indicating a pullback. And last week, the pullback position retraced to the 10-week moving average level on the weekly chart. If this pullback is again perfectly synchronized, then Bitcoin’s weekly MA10 would be around 70,000; with a time-for-space shift, next week’s MA10 would rise to around 73,000. So it’s fairly reasonable for Bitcoin to pull back into the 73,000–70,000 range.

What I said above is based only on how gold and Bitcoin have been synchronized at the daily/weekly levels over the past roughly half year, so it can’t be used as a complete reference. But what I want to say is this: setting aside gold entirely, in the past ten days I’ve been saying that Bitcoin would pull back first to 76,500, and then to the pullback targets of 74,600–73,000–70,000. Right? Last week at 76,500, did I not ask you to close all the short positions you had opened earlier from 81,000–80,000–79,000–78,000? And recently, hasn’t the range at 80,000 and above—especially above 81,000—been a very good area to short? Although my stop-loss was hit on Thursday last week, right before and around Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday I still told everyone to short again.

Ethereum and Bitcoin both gave opportunities at 2515 and 80200. Whether you shorted or not, we went short anyway.
At this position now, I know many people don’t dare to short. I’ve also heard a lot of criticism about shorting now and so on. It doesn’t matter—the more people who oppose it, the more likely the direction I’m taking is the right one. ​​​

Bitcoin is currently around 79,500.

One side is looking at 85,000; the other says it will go to 75,000.
Given the timing in September, which side do you think is more likely? Would you mainly go long on a pullback and look for 85,000; or mainly short on a rebound and look for a pullback to 75,000? [doge][doge] ​​​

In short, since February this year, whenever Bitcoin has been in the 80,000 range, shorting it and entering short positions in batches has been able to make big gains. Today I also recommend continuing to short. At 81,500 and 2,550, I was only a little short of getting my limit orders filled. Quite a few people who followed along and took a small entry have already made profits.

So tonight, if it rebounds to around 80,000, short any level, with targets of 77,000-74,000 ​​​

It doesn't need to be that precise; if it all goes in, we're all eating meat! ​​​

Wait for the rebound to go up and then short it again

Ethereum should still go up this time. Yesterday I didn’t call you to open an ETH short. Previously, there were ten or eight times where going short ETH above 2500 made a lot of money. But this time—right now, I don’t recommend shorting ETH.

Similarly, on the two occasions for Bitcoin in the 79000–81000 range, I told you it was fine to short in batches, and you could just hold it any way you like—I said to be firmly bearish. However, for yesterday’s two short calls, I told you to reduce the position size: open smaller, don’t add to the position, and follow a strict stop-loss. After it hit the stop, I also told you to rest immediately.

Keep waiting. Today, whether you want to go long or short, I suggest you pause and wait for an opportunity. Or wait until after the evening NFP data, then reassess and decide.

Darn it. Just rest directly! Tonight, no matter how it goes up or down, I’m not dealing with it! ​​​

The daily chart definitely needs to stay short for now; wait until it moves a little higher, then re-enter the short position!

Raise it a bit more and then clear it again.

This trade turned out to be a loss. I told everyone this time to keep the position light, only 3–5%, and to use a stop-loss no more than 1,000 points. I didn’t tell them about Ethereum either. Let’s wait a moment.

It went in empty