清宁的交易日记
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Key Focus on Today's CPI Data:
The importance of this data is no less than that of non-farm payrolls—while non-farm reflects 'human unemployment', CPI reflects 'money unemployment', directly measuring the purchasing power of currency. It will directly affect the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts/increases, thereby determining the mid-term direction of BTC.
The importance of this data is no less than that of non-farm payrolls—while non-farm reflects 'human unemployment', CPI reflects 'money unemployment', directly measuring the purchasing power of currency. It will directly affect the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts/increases, thereby determining the mid-term direction of BTC.
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Life is like a pencil in a child's hand; it seems long enough, but before you know it, it feels short.
In the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands open downwards, releasing potential space below. The rebound is repeatedly suppressed by the trend line, and the momentum continues to strengthen.
86400-87000, look at 85000-845000
In the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands open downwards, releasing potential space below. The rebound is repeatedly suppressed by the trend line, and the momentum continues to strengthen.
86400-87000, look at 85000-845000
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Life is vast like the sea, with mountains and rivers everywhere. It's nothing but a fleeting moment. What traps you is not the mountain itself, but the obsession in your heart. One day, when you look back, you'll find that the light boat has already passed through countless mountains!
Last night, BTC faced negative news from the non-farm payrolls and positive news regarding unemployment benefits. Ultimately, it surged and then fell back, still within the range of a large fluctuation. The non-farm payrolls did not allow BTC to break out of the oscillation, so we may have to wait for the CPI data tomorrow evening on Thursday. Today, BTC will most likely continue to oscillate, with high selling and low buying within the intraday range.
86500-87000, watching 88500-89500
Last night, BTC faced negative news from the non-farm payrolls and positive news regarding unemployment benefits. Ultimately, it surged and then fell back, still within the range of a large fluctuation. The non-farm payrolls did not allow BTC to break out of the oscillation, so we may have to wait for the CPI data tomorrow evening on Thursday. Today, BTC will most likely continue to oscillate, with high selling and low buying within the intraday range.
86500-87000, watching 88500-89500
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The MA20 moving average on the 4-hour chart has currently turned into resistance, and the MACD is also starting to adjust from above the zero line. The RSI has fallen below the neutral line, and the coin price will continue to adjust downwards.
Tonight, the market will welcome a "data explosion," destined to be a sleepless night.
87500-88000 range, watch for a drop below 85000, and then look down to 83000–80000.
Tonight, the market will welcome a "data explosion," destined to be a sleepless night.
87500-88000 range, watch for a drop below 85000, and then look down to 83000–80000.
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The direction has never wavered, and the grain has always been this simple, short-term BTC is nearly 2000 points
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On Tuesday at 21:30 Beijing time, the non-farm employment report for the U.S. for October and November will be released. The market expects an increase of 40,000 in the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for October and November, compared to a previous increase of 119,000; the unemployment rate for the U.S. in October and November is expected to be 4.4%, unchanged from the previous value.
Given that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously cited the weakening job market as a primary reason for interest rate cuts, if the employment data released this week shows weakness, the U.S. dollar may face further selling pressure before the end of the year. At the same time, on Tuesday at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Census Bureau will release retail sales data for October.
Given that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously cited the weakening job market as a primary reason for interest rate cuts, if the employment data released this week shows weakness, the U.S. dollar may face further selling pressure before the end of the year. At the same time, on Tuesday at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Census Bureau will release retail sales data for October.
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Do not waste new tears on old sorrows, do not change too much for repeated points and extravagant wishes.
The hourly line has dropped significantly. The short line is somewhat volatile, but the indicators have not followed the speed of the ups and downs. Even if there is a decline, it is a fluctuating pattern rather than a weak one-sided drop. After today's inertia dips to a new low, we can first look at 2900-2940, and then 3080-3165.
The hourly line has dropped significantly. The short line is somewhat volatile, but the indicators have not followed the speed of the ups and downs. Even if there is a decline, it is a fluctuating pattern rather than a weak one-sided drop. After today's inertia dips to a new low, we can first look at 2900-2940, and then 3080-3165.
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Asking for directions will prevent getting lost, leaving an escape route will prevent a dead end, and daring to turn back means there is no way out.
Currently situated between the lower and middle bands of the Bollinger Bands, the lower band has formed effective support; in the KDJ indicator, the three lines have all turned upward and the values are gradually rising, showing a golden cross trend, reflecting that short-term bullish strength is beginning to gather; the technical aspect is already equipped with short-term bullish characteristics.
85300-85700 bullish, looking at 88000-90000.
Currently situated between the lower and middle bands of the Bollinger Bands, the lower band has formed effective support; in the KDJ indicator, the three lines have all turned upward and the values are gradually rising, showing a golden cross trend, reflecting that short-term bullish strength is beginning to gather; the technical aspect is already equipped with short-term bullish characteristics.
85300-85700 bullish, looking at 88000-90000.
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ETH is also a top-tier cryptocurrency. After the rebound, just follow the rewards. It started to decline from 3162, with a minimum drop to 2990.
Find the right rhythm, and surprises are part of the daily routine! In the last month of 2025, I wish everyone good luck!
Find the right rhythm, and surprises are part of the daily routine! In the last month of 2025, I wish everyone good luck!
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Evening BTC ETH market momentum is fierce, crazy harvesting. The current price at the highest point today has been pleasant, BTC 89900 to 86807
3,000 points in place
3,000 points in place
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Currently, a bearish engulfing pattern has appeared on the four-hour chart, with a single bullish candle directly covering a large bullish candle, indicating a strong breakout. There was a rise in the early session, but it remains insufficient in strength; the rebound is still fleeting. The downward movement is the main theme, and the pressure from above has not changed.
3150-3200, look at 3020-2950
3150-3200, look at 3020-2950
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This week, the global financial market will face a dense test of "central bank nuclear bombs + dual data shocks". The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut faces hawkish opposition, and the interest rate decisions of the three major central banks in the UK, Europe, and Japan follow one after another. Non-farm payrolls and CPI data are affecting market nerves, and the trends of assets such as the US dollar, gold and silver, and US stocks are full of uncertainty.
From a technical perspective, looking at the 4-hour chart, the overall Bollinger Bands show a downward opening shape, with the middle band becoming a significant resistance level. The price has attempted to rise multiple times without breaking through; during the process of falling from a high position, it has formed a staircase-like downward pattern, with each rebound becoming a new tightening node, making it difficult for the rebound to support a trend reversal.
89500-90000 tightening, looking at 86000-87000
From a technical perspective, looking at the 4-hour chart, the overall Bollinger Bands show a downward opening shape, with the middle band becoming a significant resistance level. The price has attempted to rise multiple times without breaking through; during the process of falling from a high position, it has formed a staircase-like downward pattern, with each rebound becoming a new tightening node, making it difficult for the rebound to support a trend reversal.
89500-90000 tightening, looking at 86000-87000
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Looking ahead to next week, the U.S. macroeconomic data will be released intensively, with employment and inflation remaining the market focus. S&P Global will publish the preliminary PMI for December, and the U.S. will also release October retail sales data and the November non-farm payroll report (which includes some supplementary October data). On Thursday, the U.S. will announce the latest CPI data and initial jobless claims.
Since these significant data releases occur after the Federal Reserve's decision rather than before, combined with the approaching year-end holidays and declining market liquidity, short-term price fluctuations may be significantly amplified.
Since these significant data releases occur after the Federal Reserve's decision rather than before, combined with the approaching year-end holidays and declining market liquidity, short-term price fluctuations may be significantly amplified.
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When you encounter difficulties in life, take a break. When you cannot break through, slow down. This is a lifelong matter, not something that can be completed in one or two days. Live your life well.
The four-hour Bollinger Bands show initial signs of opening but are not fully opened, indicating that the market is strong but has not entered a one-sided extremely strong mode, leaving room for a technical pullback. If the pullback is too large, the Bollinger Bands may close again, and the market may switch to range fluctuations; if the pullback is mild, it can be seen as a healthy correction in the trend, and opportunities for entry can still be sought at lower levels. The MACD momentum has not shown signs of weakening, and the RSI has room for adjustment, requiring close observation of the development of the openings and the matching of pullback depth to determine whether the market will continue its strength or shift into a consolidation pattern. The main trend is still focused on pullbacks.
89500-90000 for entry, look at 92000-93500.
The four-hour Bollinger Bands show initial signs of opening but are not fully opened, indicating that the market is strong but has not entered a one-sided extremely strong mode, leaving room for a technical pullback. If the pullback is too large, the Bollinger Bands may close again, and the market may switch to range fluctuations; if the pullback is mild, it can be seen as a healthy correction in the trend, and opportunities for entry can still be sought at lower levels. The MACD momentum has not shown signs of weakening, and the RSI has room for adjustment, requiring close observation of the development of the openings and the matching of pullback depth to determine whether the market will continue its strength or shift into a consolidation pattern. The main trend is still focused on pullbacks.
89500-90000 for entry, look at 92000-93500.
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The price of the currency has risen as hoped, with a steady increase being the best approach.
The price of the currency met expectations in the morning and continued the cycle of this week's washout-style rise in the evening, ultimately increasing after leveraging through deep squats and then breaking through for further increases.
91500-92000, looking at 94000-95000
The price of the currency met expectations in the morning and continued the cycle of this week's washout-style rise in the evening, ultimately increasing after leveraging through deep squats and then breaking through for further increases.
91500-92000, looking at 94000-95000
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In fact, success relies not on grand ambitions, but on being practical and persevering step by step!
In the daily chart, the random indicator has a golden cross upwards, and the MACD double line is temporarily in a dull state; in terms of shape, there is a slow bull rise;
913000-91600, look at 93000-94000
In the daily chart, the random indicator has a golden cross upwards, and the MACD double line is temporarily in a dull state; in terms of shape, there is a slow bull rise;
913000-91600, look at 93000-94000
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Next week, the employment data for October-November and the November CPI will be announced. In January, there will also be a cluster of December employment data. If unemployment rises and inflation does not decrease, Powell might find it even harder to manage. Currently, most officials expect a further reduction of 25 basis points next year, but the probability of a pause in January is increasing. After all, interest rates are approaching 'neutral levels,' and each reduction leads to lengthy debates. It can only be said that the Federal Reserve is currently taking one step at a time, fearing that saving jobs might sacrifice inflation, and controlling inflation might cool down the economy. This wave of 'extreme tug-of-war' is likely to continue until the new chairperson takes office!
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Those seemingly stagnant fluctuations are never the end of the market, but rather the prelude to the accumulation of trends. Just like the mudflats when the tide recedes, they may appear quiet, but in reality, they conceal the secrets of the next rise and fall; just like hibernation in the cold winter, they may seem desolate, yet deep in the soil, they nurture the vitality to break through the earth. There is no need to lose composure due to temporary rises and falls, nor to panic because of the restlessness of others. True certainty has never been about chasing gains and losses in the noise, but about holding onto the anchor point of one's heart amidst fluctuations, and cultivating the power of judgment in waiting.
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BTC fluctuated throughout the day, ultimately facing pressure and plummeting in the evening.
On Tuesday, the data to be released will include the 4-week average of ADP employment changes, as well as the job vacancies and labor turnover (JOLTS) reports for September and October. "The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision and more policy guidance."
This week's rebound highs have been gradually decreasing, indicating a weaker desire to push higher, which is different from the previous surge in the market. Currently, it remains in a fluctuating trend!
91000-91500 range, looking at 88000-89000.
On Tuesday, the data to be released will include the 4-week average of ADP employment changes, as well as the job vacancies and labor turnover (JOLTS) reports for September and October. "The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision and more policy guidance."
This week's rebound highs have been gradually decreasing, indicating a weaker desire to push higher, which is different from the previous surge in the market. Currently, it remains in a fluctuating trend!
91000-91500 range, looking at 88000-89000.
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The four-hour chart maintains the rhythm of the dark cloud cover, the large bearish candlestick directly covers the bullish candlestick, and the K-line starts to gain strength from above the 50 moving average, directly breaking through support. Of course, the K-line rebound is still under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut this Thursday, as the market is highly likely to lower interest rates. Before the rate cut, it is mainly high.
Short near 3100-3140, target looking towards 2930-2900
Short near 3100-3140, target looking towards 2930-2900
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