清宁的交易日记

 随市而动谋胜算，笑看风云绽锋芒

  大家好，我是始终信心满满、一心为你而战的BTC高级分析师清宁交易员。只要行情不是一成不变的直线，我就有信心带你获胜！

  每天都有众多投资者向我提问：“清宁老师，这市场究竟该怎么玩呢？是要提前预判行情，还是顺势跟随就好？”
  在这里，清宁想跟各位投资朋友说，想要真正成为那获胜的20%人群，只需掌握一点：紧跟市场脉搏，保持平和心态，严格遵守交易纪律。买入时不急躁，卖出时不拖沓，长此以往，投资便能成为一项稳健的项目。别整日紧盯着盘面，多拓宽些视野，以轻松的心态才能有大钱。

  清宁每天长时间盯盘，那是工作所需，可你们呢？难道要放下赖以谋生的工作，忽视家人，结果钱没赚到，生活还一团糟，这显然不是我们想要的投资。很多投资者时间比我充裕，却心存侥幸，盲目跟风，觉得集思广益就能成功，在各个金融论坛、直播间搜罗各方意见，最后自己却迷失方向，该出手时犹豫，该离场时茫然，实在可惜，这也是有时候我不愿多交流的原因。

  一条路走到看不到尽头，一种错误的操作习惯持续下去，换来的只有心累和亏损。一个月可以说是磨合，两个月算是优化，三个月还能叫坚持，但要是一年半载都还是老样子，那就是不明智了。
  大家投入大量时间和金钱在市场中，既害怕又想靠近，方向错了还心存幻想，期望能回本离场，这就如同恋人已另寻新欢，你却还盼着对方回头。若真想赚钱，就踏踏实实地跟着操作，调整好仓位、作息时间和跟单模式。

  Overview of Risk Data This Week
  
  Trade War: If Trump reaches an agreement with Canada and Mexico to delay tariffs, the market's immediate reaction may trigger a sell-off of the dollar and help BTC rebound. Conversely, if China takes retaliatory measures, the price of cryptocurrencies may continue to decline.
  
  ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: On Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will release data on private sector employment changes. If this data is close to 200,000, the dollar will be immediately supported, while a figure below 150,000 may have the opposite effect.
  
  Nonfarm Payrolls: If the nonfarm employment data released on Friday shows a significant negative surprise, such as 100,000 or lower, it could put heavy pressure on the dollar. On the other hand, if the nonfarm employment data reaches or exceeds 180,000, the dollar may remain resilient against its competitors.

The table has been flipped, and this flip is no small matter. It directly led to a sharp rise in BTC, soaring by thousands of points. The lowest on Sunday was 85050, and today’s highest is 94999, continuously breaking through multiple moving averages. The most important thing today is that the global market is warming up, and the cryptocurrency sector has shaken off its previous downturn. Therefore, we are following the trend to go long, relying on the 20 and 30 moving averages to buy on dips.

Long at 92000-92400, looking at 94000-95000

#美国加密战略储备

Cognition determines the limits of an account, and mindset determines the stability of an account.
  After so many years of confusion, I still cannot find the root cause of the problem, and I do not address the essence of the issue.
  We believe that a successful trader must possess three essential elements.
  First, a healthy and peaceful mindset,
  Second, a logical trading system or trading framework,
  Third, a reasonable position sizing plan based on funds, drawdown rate, and the proportion of total capital.
  These are the three essential elements of successful trading. Many traders focus too much on the second element, the trading system, while neglecting the first and third elements.
  A good system must clearly define the reasons for entering a trade; this is the foundation of trading. Every entry should be principled and justified,
  and it is essential to control the position size as much as possible. Only with an appropriate drawdown rate can one calmly handle right and wrong outcomes.
  Have there been times when trading went smoothly, feeling that the market is just like that, and no matter how you trade, you will always succeed? It seems possible to succeed easily without adhering to past trading principles, but emotions often change, and most investors quickly give back their profits to the market.

BTC embarks on a new journey,
Enter long positions at the current price of 83841,
Just like "Good winds help me rise, sending me to the azure clouds",
Expected to soar to the 86550 line,
Bullish confirmation,
2734 points of profit in the bag!
The trend is in the clear tranquility,
Everyone witness this wave of ups and downs.

Every day, if you go out with a goal, you must come back with results. Think, act, and succeed; wait, watch, and miss. Thinking is about problems, acting is about answers. You lose in hesitation and win in action.

Currently, BTC is still in a strong upward trend with a large bullish candle. The pullback of the K-line is obviously limited; the large bullish candle directly covers the body of the bearish candle, which indicates strong bullish momentum. At the same time, the K-line directly crushes the moving average, stepping on the moving average, which can only give way. The support line is continuously moving up, and of course, the support level is also moving up continuously.

83000-83500 is a range to watch, looking at 85000-86000.

On February 28th at 3 AM, the cryptocurrency market experienced a brutal "massacre"! Bitcoin plummeted unexpectedly, with prices cascading down like a waterfall, crashing by 12% in just one hour. Not only did it break through the psychological barrier of $80,000, but it also plunged to a deep abyss of $76,000! This epic crash caused countless investors to face disaster in their sleep!

A terrifying 24 hours! 150,000 people collectively liquidated

According to real-time monitoring by CoinGlass, this sudden crash has triggered the bloodiest "liquidation event" in cryptocurrency market history. Within 24 hours, over 153,000 investors globally suffered forced liquidations, totaling a staggering $580 million! The largest single liquidation occurred at a certain exchange, instantly evaporating $21 million, equivalent to a courtyard house in Beijing's second ring road disappearing into thin air!

Currently, the technical aspect of the daily trend is looking bearish, with the top being a evening star pattern, which appears at the peak. The large bearish candlestick's body also covers the lower shadow, indicating that the technical aspect is indeed downward, without a doubt. However, Qingning believes that the candlestick will rebound first, and then the downward pressure will be greater. The rebound position is at the previous bottom, which is the current top signal. As of now, we are looking at a rebound to 84000-84500, and then observing 87000-88000.

  Time has come to Thursday, and this week's BTC can be described as turbulent, with large ups and downs, back and forth, significant ranges, fast speeds, quick reversals, and rapid starts.

The four-hour pattern is opening downwards, but with large fluctuations alternating between bullish and bearish, it is prone to reversal. The first resistance to pay attention to above is 87000. If the four-hour closing can break through this resistance, the rebound strength will increase, with further resistance at 89300. If it fails to break through, then attention should be paid to the support levels below at 82300 and 80000.

If you don't think ahead, you will have immediate worries. The same is true for the market. The rise and fall of the market is not determined by personal subjective will, but is full of struggles between long and short. If you are still trading blindly, and you are losing money every day except for the order, then Qingning wants to say that you are a failure. You are unwilling to change the road when you go astray, which can only prove that you are not hurt enough! Without further ado, the market has not moved, the strategy comes first, and the intraday analysis will be given soon!

 The familiar rhythm and familiar formula, BTC has bottomed out and rebounded again, but BTC is still just rebounding. BTC rebounds or continues to be short, BTC bulls have not reversed, and BTC rebounds are opportunities for shorts.

85500-86000 short, look at 82000-83000

BTC interprets 'V' turn, bulls and bears prevail, easily harvesting 2317 points

This is the BTC market, changing rapidly; it could be a celebration for BTC bulls one second and a feast for BTC bears the next; one must adapt to the situation.

Life is like a dream, everyone has different dreams. Some people have continuous good dreams, while others are plagued by nightmares. Life is like tea, slightly bitter with a hint of fragrance, after being rich, it returns to being light!

The four-hour BTC chart shows a large bearish candle breaking through all support, directly sinking around 86000. The large bearish candle's body clearly indicates a deep insertion; those who shorted must be pleased. Currently, the moving averages are clearly trending downward, and the candlestick is under pressure. BTC has likely reached a short-term peak; at least a double top is evident. The daily chart also shows a large bearish candle covering a week of bullish candles, indicating that the bears are starting to gain strength.
Short at 89500-90000, look down to 88000 and support at 86000, stop and watch for a rebound.

Main Reasons for the Significant Drop in Bitcoin

Macroeconomic Pressures

- Federal Reserve Rate Hike Expectations: U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, and the labor market performed strongly, leading to concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts or even restart rate hikes. This worry has resulted in a sell-off of risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).

- Strengthening Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to several-month highs, prompting funds to flow back into traditional safe-haven assets, thereby draining market liquidity from cryptocurrencies.

Regulatory and Policy Risks

- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken a cautious stance on the review of the Ethereum ETF, intensifying market concerns about tightening cryptocurrency regulations.

[History repeats itself: the devilish cycle of the 2024 crash]

This crash is strikingly similar to the two crashes in April and November 2024, exposing three major problems in the cryptocurrency market:

Regulatory dependence: Every policy change will trigger a fluctuation of more than 10%, far exceeding the normal 3-5% of traditional assets;

Whale manipulation black hole: An anonymous address concentrated on transferring 4,000 bitcoins 1 hour before the crash, accurately triggering a sell-off;

Halving cycle curse: There are only 50 days left before the halving of Bitcoin production in 2025. Miners sell in advance to cope with the soaring costs, forming a "death spiral"

The sky is clear after the clouds have been cleared, and the Air Force has won a great victory

BTC price "dive" from 92539 to 88227, a drop of 4312 points

Good afternoon, you in front of the screen, just a few days ago, the China Golden Dragon Index fell 5.42% yesterday, which made the A-share market tremble today. The technology concept that rose before was okay, after all, the increase was large, but if it was a sector that did not rise after the New Year, it would be left staring blankly again.

BTC is a volatile market in 1 hour. In this market, don't chase more easily at high levels. If you want to buy more, you have to wait until it falls back to the lower edge of the volatility. The highs have been rising and falling recently, even if they break through new highs, they are rising and falling. BTC continues to be short today.

92700-93000 short, boldly cover short above 93000, first look at 91000-90000

BTC 4-hour double top structure pressure, BTC rebounded and surged to 96499 then directly fell back. BTC will continue to short at highs this afternoon. The BTC bears have just begun, unafraid of the rebound.
    
  BTC's rebound is just a paper tiger; the rebound is an opportunity for shorts.

  The market changes rapidly, and it is not suitable to have a rigid mindset, nor should one walk down a dark path. Do not be stubborn; the trading market does not last forever. Trading is more suitable for the emotional wanderer. The market specializes in treating various grievances. Since we cannot change the market, what we need to do is follow the market's rules. Without experiencing wind and rain, how can one see the rainbow? No one can succeed easily; only by working harder can one achieve success. Are you willing to walk with Qingning? Regardless of the wind and rain, Qingning is willing to hold an umbrella for you to shield you from the storm.

Short at 96500-97000, look at 94500-94000.

Teaching a person to fish is better than giving them a fish. At any time, one must be strong oneself.

Kong came as promised, as if lovers separated for centuries were meeting again. Easily scored 1323 points.

If you identify with more than 4 of the following 9 points, it indicates that you are not suitable for the cryptocurrency market, and it's quite accurate!
1. Rumor-based type. This type of person, once they hear something, can operate immediately without thinking.
2. Full warehouse altcoin type. The biggest characteristic of this person is that they may only have a few tens of thousands in funds, yet they can own dozens of altcoins, wanting to have every coin, and whenever a coin rises, they claim to have it too.
3. Unable to control trading. Clearly knowing it’s wrong, but unable to control themselves, they say they wanted to buy or sell at the time, but just can’t control their hands.
4. Wrong but not changing type. A typical person who always makes mistakes and never corrects them, can keep making the same mistake forever but never change.
5. Gambler type. No fundamentals, doesn’t understand trading logic, has no awareness, yet loves high leverage and all-in bets.
6. Pretentious type. Some people, despite losing badly, love to brag; for them, the market is not for trading but for chatting and boasting.
7. Too deep into the play type. This type of person treats volatility like a TV series; every monitored fluctuation can make them lose emotional control, whether it’s rising, falling, or consolidating, they can’t handle it for 4 hours of trading.
8. Only buying, not selling type. This type buys but can't let go, deceiving themselves that it's a bull market, unaware of stop-losses; altcoins can drop by 80% and still not sell, just holding on.
9. Unable to differentiate between short and long-term, and unable to manage positions type. This type feels bad when it drops, feels bad when it rises, feels bad when trapped in a drop, feels bad when they didn't buy during a rise, saying they forget to add positions when it drops, and when it rises they supplement without selling. #Ethereum

  Trading sometimes indeed requires a bit of luck, but in the long run, good fortune and bad luck balance each other out. To achieve sustained success, one must rely on skills and the application of good principles. Always remember, as long as the green mountains remain, there is no fear of not having firewood. Do not give up on the expectation of spring just because winter has arrived; the sharpness of the sword comes from grinding, and the fragrance of the plum blossom comes from the bitter cold. Without standing tall, the mountain cannot be majestic; without mud, how can the lotus stand gracefully? In the biting wind, my heart remains steadfast. After the rain, there will be a rainbow!