熔炉

Go screw in bolts

Probability of Profit for a Short Position with No Holdings
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SPCX (SpaceX) Short-Squeeze Logic: Late-Stage Squeeze, Pullback Imminent

📍 Why Go Short?

SpaceX’s surge after the unfreezing event is, in essence, a short-squeeze driven by short-covering—not a fundamental reversal. Prior to unfreezing, the short interest ratio was as high as 36%, with roughly 250 million shares sold short. After unfreezing, the first batch of expected large-scale selling did not materialize. As a result, shorts were forced to cover, pushing the price from 105 to 142 within two days.

But a squeeze won’t last forever. The drop after the 141.8 “needle” is the first warning signal—once price reaches this level, it falls quickly, indicating that real selling pressure is indeed present.

📊 Technical Signals

· RSI 7 has exceeded 80, and RSI 14 is above 70—both are in the severely overbought zone.
· The 134–135 range is the IPO offering price and an important psychological level; on Friday, the rebound was rejected in this area.
· 141.8 has been validated by the market as a short-term effective resistance.
· Below, 124–126 is the MA200 defense zone and a key battleground between bulls and bears.

🧠 Core Logic

The squeeze will end, but the unfreezing won’t.

About 911.5 million shares were unlocked on August 6. In addition, another 319 million shares may be released on August 20, and there will be multiple further unlock events in September and October. The selling pressure from the unlock is only being masked by the squeeze; it hasn’t disappeared. By month-end, the short target is still 126.

⚠️ Risks

· If the stock opens on Monday and holds above 142 on strong volume, the short thesis needs to be reassessed.

📌 Status Update

The squeeze came fast—and will also leave fast. SPCX will take several weeks to confirm the true value after the unlock. Be patient and let the market finish the move on its own.

Relatively promising with potential for a big surge

Your mom has big breasts, so you’re right.

LOL

Going all in like a champ!

Hard Hitter

$SOL Unlocking 870 million isn't about not coming; it's about waiting for those chasing the long to take their positions first.
This round of unlocking taught me one thing:
Short squeezes are temporary, supply and demand are eternal.
The hardest part of trading isn't making the right call; it's getting your position blown up by the market first.
Fortunately, I'm still here waiting.
The bearish logic hasn't changed; the rest is up to time.

With $TRUMP , there are coins released by Trump unlocking hundreds of thousands daily. Just short it.

$SOL needs to wait for a rise
1. Short term (1-3 days)

- There is a high probability of a technical rebound, with the target possibly testing the resistance levels of the 4-hour MA7 (82.45) or MA25 (85.45).

- However, this is more like a "breather after a drop" rather than a trend reversal.

2. Medium term (1-2 weeks)

- Whether it can truly rise depends on two key conditions:

1. Volume support: There must be sustained increased trading volume during the rebound; otherwise, it will just be a trap for the bulls.
2. Breakthrough of key resistance: It must effectively break through the daily MA5 and MA10 moving averages and maintain above 85-90 USDT.

- If these two conditions are not met, there is a high probability that after the rebound, it will continue to decline, possibly testing a new low of 67.50.

$SOL Extreme Oversold, Possible Rebound at Any Time

- RSI is only 10.48: It is in a historically low oversold range, indicating that selling pressure is nearly exhausted, and the probability of a short-term technical rebound is extremely high.
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- Clear Support Level: The 24-hour low of 88.66 is the current core support, with a very low probability of breaking; the upper range of 95-100 USDT is the first rebound resistance level.
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- Increased Trading Volume: During the decline, trading volume has continued to increase, indicating that funds are supporting at low levels, providing momentum for subsequent rebounds.

$LINK Now entering without knowing how to rise against the trend

Just because many people see it often doesn't mean it will really rise; the truth lies with a few.

$LINK The short position has been closed with profit, preparing for a long position

The trend is declining, it should be able to rebound up now.

$COAI feels very good

$CUDIS Target 0.09-0.1

When I got up, the sky had fallen.

From the current chart (4 hours, 15 minutes, 1 hour) technical signals, short-term 'overbought correction' + 'top pressure signal':

$LINK LINKUSDT Perpetual Contract Long Feasibility Analysis

Currently, LINK is in a bearish trend (1/4 hour moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, 24h down 13%). The 4-hour RSI (14.06) is severely oversold, indicating a potential technical rebound, but there are still issues with volume-price divergence and trend suppression.