neg_bos
42 Posts
neg_bos
Open Trade
BNB Holder
Frequent Trader
6.5 Years
16 Following
342 Followers
544 Liked
Posts
Portfolio
All
Quotes
I miscalculated.
I originally thought the July peak would at least reach 69,000, but it doesn’t look like it will reach the expected level.
However, my outlook for August and September hasn’t changed: these two months are likely not going to be very good.
At the moment, I see two possible paths:
First, the upward trend in July continues into mid-August, but there isn’t much room left upward, making it difficult to effectively break above 70,000. After mid-August, the market may weaken again and continue testing lower levels.
Second, the market starts falling at the beginning of August, keeps declining, then enters slow consolidation after mid-August. After that, it could trade with volatility all the way through September and October, and even into November, before the final wave of selling pressure appears.
I originally thought the July peak would at least reach 69,000, but it doesn’t look like it will reach the expected level.
However, my outlook for August and September hasn’t changed: these two months are likely not going to be very good.
At the moment, I see two possible paths:
First, the upward trend in July continues into mid-August, but there isn’t much room left upward, making it difficult to effectively break above 70,000. After mid-August, the market may weaken again and continue testing lower levels.
Second, the market starts falling at the beginning of August, keeps declining, then enters slow consolidation after mid-August. After that, it could trade with volatility all the way through September and October, and even into November, before the final wave of selling pressure appears.
Heehee 6.9k, I’m just selling it
No more talking. See my previous predictions.
Also, around the end of July, I will sell off and directly switch to a bearish outlook.
Continuing to DCA
Also, around the end of July, I will sell off and directly switch to a bearish outlook.
Continuing to DCA
You can look at the predictions I made before, and you’ll find I’m kind of like a god, really
I am extremely bullish, July
LOL, July bounce back, August till the end of the year we’re looking at one last dip. Gonna DCA in.
I think my predictions are a bit creepy.....
Forecasting one last major dip before December
I've started DCAing
You guys get it, right?
I've given you some direction.
Forecasting one last major dip before December
I've started DCAing
You guys get it, right?
I've given you some direction.
The lower it goes, the more you should buy
DCA, that's the way to go
How often do we see a bear market like this?
You all need to appreciate it!
DCA, that's the way to go
How often do we see a bear market like this?
You all need to appreciate it!
ETH might dip down to around 1500 by the end of this year or early next year.
If there's a recession this year or next,
it could even go lower.
If there's a recession this year or next,
it could even go lower.
I'm firmly bearish for March.
We'll hit new lows before the end of the year.
That's the macro trend.
Even after a two-month rally, I'm still bearish.
We'll hit new lows before the end of the year.
That's the macro trend.
Even after a two-month rally, I'm still bearish.
Alas, I really worry about the intelligence of these people.
You can win countless times in the contract market
But the market will inevitably have unexpected moments
So going back to zero only takes once
I also don't want to call for anything
I just think studying is very important
Alas, poor people
You can win countless times in the contract market
But the market will inevitably have unexpected moments
So going back to zero only takes once
I also don't want to call for anything
I just think studying is very important
Alas, poor people
After the previous failure of going long on Ethereum, I do not blame myself because I allow myself the space to fail. Currently, most of my funds are still in spot holdings. I expect that there may be a significant decline in the market this week and next week. If the market does not develop as I envision, I will temporarily exit the crypto market and wait for the mid-term bear market to come, and then gradually accumulate at lower prices.
I bet against probability
Less than 40 days left in the bull market cycle
I bet ETH to a new high
Once it reaches 6000, I will liquidate all spot contracts
If I lose, I have no regrets; at most, I'll be a red-nosed clown
Anyway, my largest position is in spot, so I'm not afraid of this small amount of money
This is the probability I can accept, come on, god of probability!!!
Less than 40 days left in the bull market cycle
I bet ETH to a new high
Once it reaches 6000, I will liquidate all spot contracts
If I lose, I have no regrets; at most, I'll be a red-nosed clown
Anyway, my largest position is in spot, so I'm not afraid of this small amount of money
This is the probability I can accept, come on, god of probability!!!
On October 11, the cryptocurrency circle was bloodied.
Altcoins plummeted like an avalanche, with a decrease of nearly half.
As I said in August, as long as the probability event is not zero, it will eventually happen; it’s just a matter of time.
Now, you see, it has finally come.
Fortunately, most of my funds are still in spot, and the impact is not too heavy.
However, the storm has just begun to sweep across the entire market, and new problems are following.
The Bitcoin bull market cycle has less than seventy days left.
The good news is that BTC is still holding above the bull market support zone,
that remaining hint of green is my only hope.
With this hope,
I challenge 'probability' with the only remaining bit of contract position in my hands.
Next, this is a showdown between me and 'probability'.
I will bet the remaining chips on ETH.
This is not just an investment; it is a gamble of faith.
If I win, I will be wealthy;
if I lose, I will dedicate one hundred thousand RMB to the god of probability, and I will have no regrets.
I believe that in these last two months,
ETH will gather the will of the entire cryptocurrency circle and initiate its final dance.
Altcoins plummeted like an avalanche, with a decrease of nearly half.
As I said in August, as long as the probability event is not zero, it will eventually happen; it’s just a matter of time.
Now, you see, it has finally come.
Fortunately, most of my funds are still in spot, and the impact is not too heavy.
However, the storm has just begun to sweep across the entire market, and new problems are following.
The Bitcoin bull market cycle has less than seventy days left.
The good news is that BTC is still holding above the bull market support zone,
that remaining hint of green is my only hope.
With this hope,
I challenge 'probability' with the only remaining bit of contract position in my hands.
Next, this is a showdown between me and 'probability'.
I will bet the remaining chips on ETH.
This is not just an investment; it is a gamble of faith.
If I win, I will be wealthy;
if I lose, I will dedicate one hundred thousand RMB to the god of probability, and I will have no regrets.
I believe that in these last two months,
ETH will gather the will of the entire cryptocurrency circle and initiate its final dance.
September is the painful period of imitation.
24 years old
Raise a glass of Sprite to myself
Unique perspective
And inhuman patience
Everything is worth it
Thank you to my past self for encountering quantum mechanics
Inspiring my philosophical thoughts on probability
I vow that next year's bear market, I will only buy 30% in spot
The rest will be cash for overseas real estate
Diversifying risks
The poor must understand how to accumulate funds
The rich must understand how to prevent their assets from going to zero
Raise a glass of Sprite to myself
Unique perspective
And inhuman patience
Everything is worth it
Thank you to my past self for encountering quantum mechanics
Inspiring my philosophical thoughts on probability
I vow that next year's bear market, I will only buy 30% in spot
The rest will be cash for overseas real estate
Diversifying risks
The poor must understand how to accumulate funds
The rich must understand how to prevent their assets from going to zero
In the world of cryptocurrency, what truly changed my thinking was the contemplation of the universe and quantum mechanics.
I once watched a video about probabilistic events in the microscopic world, which immediately made me think of probabilistic events in the macroscopic world and completely changed my view on 'contracts'.
Imagine this: if there is a ditch in front of your house, will your phone fall into the ditch?
My answer is that it has already happened, just not on your timeline.
If the probability of an event is not 0, then over a long enough time, it will inevitably occur.
And this is precisely my clear understanding of contract trading: if there is no liquidation today, there will definitely be liquidation in the future; it is only a matter of time.
This is also why I never touch contracts.
I once watched a video about probabilistic events in the microscopic world, which immediately made me think of probabilistic events in the macroscopic world and completely changed my view on 'contracts'.
Imagine this: if there is a ditch in front of your house, will your phone fall into the ditch?
My answer is that it has already happened, just not on your timeline.
If the probability of an event is not 0, then over a long enough time, it will inevitably occur.
And this is precisely my clear understanding of contract trading: if there is no liquidation today, there will definitely be liquidation in the future; it is only a matter of time.
This is also why I never touch contracts.
24 years old this year, likes to watch middle-aged retail investors wail, likes to watch young retail investors be confused. I advise all compatriots who are playing with cryptocurrencies: if you want to play, do it like me—buy in bear markets and sell in bull markets. This waiting can take at least 2 years. The one who torments you is always yourself. Only by going against human nature can you stand out from the crowd. I have given you the definitive guide to victory, and I hope you will always remember it.
Log in to explore more content