御风而茗

The U.S. OCC has issued the first final rules under the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, moving stablecoin regulation from “waiting for detailed rules” to “operating under clear rules.”

The rules will take effect on January 18, 2027, covering issuer eligibility, reserves, redemption, and custody standards, and also setting standards for foreign issuers. The most closely watched provision concerns yield: the final version removes the draft’s “presumption of illegality” for third-party arrangements, but makes clear that reward programs are not automatically compliant simply because they were already in place. Existing stablecoin rewards offered by exchanges will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis.

Next to watch: progress on implementing rules from the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, and the FDIC, as well as the compliance path for the issuer of $USDT $USDC and whether platforms adjust their rewards policies.

#稳定币 #GENIUSAct

These are personal views. The author may hold assets mentioned in this post. This is not investment advice. DYOR.

On the same day, BTC ETFs saw $527 million in net inflows, while ETH ETFs recorded $103 million in outflows—their fourth consecutive day of outflows.

According to SoSoValue, since September 29, spot ETH ETFs have seen net inflows on just one day. Of Monday’s outflows, BlackRock’s ETHA alone accounted for $95.4 million.

But prices didn’t follow the flows: over 24 hours, $ETH rose 1.7%, outperforming $BTC , which gained 1.3%.

What do you think?
A. Institutions are reducing their ETH allocations, so the rebound may not last
B. Prices bottomed before flows did, and outflows are nearing an end
C. ETFs are no longer the main factor in ETH pricing; on-chain activity and L2s are

Share your pick and the indicators you’re watching in the comments.

#以太坊ETF #ETH
These are the author’s personal views. The author may hold assets mentioned in this post. This is not investment advice. DYOR

BlackRock is putting a “safety airbag” on Bitcoin—and that’s more worth watching than the $665 million in single-day inflows.

On Monday, BlackRock filed an application for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protect ETF: linked to IBIT, with capped gains and downside protection.

I see this as a step toward $BTC becoming a mainstream portfolio allocation:
1. The model has been tested: Calamos’ similar product, CBOO, fell only about 1% in a year, while BTC suffered a maximum drawdown of 52% from its high over the same period.
2. A new customer base: retirement accounts and wealth-management clients wary of volatility.
3. A more complete product lineup: BITA, an income-focused product, launched in June.

Impact: This isn’t a short-term price catalyst; these products mainly buy Treasury securities and options. Over the long term, they could deepen the IBIT options market and reduce volatility. Next, watch the protection level and approval timeline.

#比特币ETF #BlackRock
Personal opinion only. The author may hold assets mentioned in this post. This is not investment advice. DYOR

BTC recovered to 82,900 overnight, just about 1.3% below its weekly high of 84,049.

8:00 a.m. Beijing time (Kraken):
$BTC 82,936, +1.3%
$ETH 2,447, +1.7%
XRP +2.4%, DOGE +2.7%; smaller coins showed greater upside

Why it matters: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $527 million on Monday, their largest single-day total in nearly a month, almost entirely driven by IBIT. ETH ETFs recorded net outflows for the fourth consecutive day.

Key levels: 83,339 and 84,049 above; 81,100 and 79,709 (weekly low) below.

What to watch today: Tuesday’s ETF data, the impact of Meta and Tesla earnings on tech sentiment, and expectations ahead of the Oct. 28 rate decision.

#行情速览 #Bitcoin
Personal opinion only. The author may hold assets mentioned in this post. This is not investment advice. DYOR

BTC: 7-Day Price Action Recap 📊

Over the past week, $BTC fluctuated repeatedly between $80,800 and $83,600. It’s currently trading at around $81,500, down about 2.2% for the week.

On October 19, it briefly dipped to $80,800 before quickly rebounding to $82,600. But it couldn’t hold there and fell back to the lower-middle part of the range.

Short-term outlook:
• $80,800 is key support. A break below it could signal an accelerated decline.
• $82,600–$83,600 is the resistance zone.
• Until there’s a breakout, treat it as range-bound—don’t chase rallies or sell in a panic.

Do you think we’ll break upward this week, or retest support? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇

#BTC #MarketAnalysis
(Personal opinion, not investment advice)

Folks, if you're trading, take note: a big move is coming (10,000-point volatility). My take is simple: these two days next week—at 2 a.m. on October 29, the FOMC announces its rate decision; at 4 p.m. on October 30, about $12.2 billion worth of BTC options expire, with max pain around $79,000. The two events are less than 40 hours apart. The market currently puts the chance of a rate hike in October at only about 15%; people are more concerned about December. In other words, no hike this time is pretty much priced in already. What could really move the market is what Warsh says after the meeting. If his tone is hawkish and Treasury yields rise further, crypto prices could easily get dragged down. Then options expire the next day, amplifying volatility. BTC has been stuck between $81,000 and $86,000 for weeks—its narrowest range since September. The longer it stays compressed, the farther it could move when it breaks out, but I can't say for sure which way it will go (I'm currently holding short positions). My own plan is to trade less this week, avoid high leverage, and wait for the storm to pass before deciding on a direction. Until the macro outlook turns, staying in the game matters more than making a quick buck. This is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.$BTC

It’s my first day on the Square, so let me start by introducing myself. I’ve been writing on X for over a decade, mostly about macro and liquidity—things like the Fed, Treasury bonds, and the dollar—and how they ultimately affect BTC and ETH. I don’t make trading calls or chase every trend. I only post once I’ve thought things through. Here’s my take on the current situation: What’s weighing on crypto prices right now isn’t the crypto market itself—it’s the 10-year Treasury yield staying above 5%. With risk-free returns this high, institutions have little reason to rush in. The spot ETFs seeing outflows for two weeks in a row are proof of that. That’s why I think the $80,000 level is crucial for BTC. If it holds, we’ll likely see range-bound trading while we wait for a macro signal. If it doesn’t, there could be more downside than most people expect. The next real catalyst is the FOMC meeting in the early hours of October 29. Until then, I’d rather sit tight and watch. I’ll keep writing here about how macro factors affect crypto prices. Feel free to join the conversation—and to disagree.