Selim Kryeshefci

168

💥 A tree as mighty as a cradle of strength grows from a mere sprout; a nine-storied tower rises from piled earth; a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Great undertakings spring from small accumulations—take it slow, and keep at it, step by step.

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The information gap is getting smaller, yet the cognitive gap will always exist. In the future, what will truly be valuable is the ability to understand information.

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Tonight at 22:00, 5.73 million people around the world are waiting for the Fed to speak—but I advise you not to stay up.

Top of the trending list: 5.73 million views, and 1,192 posts are flooding the screen. Tonight at 22:00 Beijing time, at Jackson Hole, the Fed Chair, Powell Walsh, will deliver his first keynote address. The setup is like the Super Bowl—like the moment he opens his mouth, global assets will be reshuffled.

But I suggest you take a breath for three seconds first. This is most likely the grandest “formality” of 2026.

Let me say something that may offend people: at Jackson Hole, historically 90% of the speeches are “correct nonsense.” “We will rely on the data,” “policy will remain flexible,” “camera-choice decisions”—translated into plain English, it means: I said nothing, so don’t make wild guesses. The Fed chair is the most skilled talker in the world. Their talent is finishing a 40-minute speech and somehow you still can’t extract any useful information.

And think about it: core PCE is still stuck above 2%, initial jobless claims are holding steady at 203,000, and oil prices have just returned to $90. With this combination, what can Walsh even say? Cutting rates? He’s not that crazy. Raising rates? He’s not that crazy either. So the answer tonight is already written in the data: hold steady and keep waiting.

What you should really watch isn’t tonight at all. First, the September dot plot—that’s where the Fed truly reveals its hand. Second, next Friday’s CPI—data is worth a hundred times more than all the talk. In plain terms, tonight’s speech is basically giving the whole market “a sense of ceremony,” so both longs and shorts have an excuse to move a bit.

If you genuinely care about your position, listen to me: don’t stay up waiting for a man who will most likely say nothing at all. Save your energy for the September dot plot and the CPI. The little volatility in the short term isn’t a signal—it’s noise.
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