时光预言机i
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时光预言机i
公众号：时光说web3 X:时光预言机i 以小博大专业户，Crypto，美股百强交易者。
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Just set up a Binance fan group
Mainly daily market analysis, contract recommendations, US stock analysis, etc.
Everyone is welcome to click the link below to join!
时光的粉丝群
Mainly daily market analysis, contract recommendations, US stock analysis, etc.
Everyone is welcome to click the link below to join!
时光的粉丝群
PINNED
Why should you open a commission rebate?
1. When your position is profitable, the rebate is another part of your earnings.
2. When your position breaks even, the rebate is your profit.
3. When your position incurs a loss or is liquidated, the rebate can help you recover and start over.
Many brothers think that a few hundred or a few thousand U is not worth opening; that is because you do not understand the calculation standard for fees. Fees are never calculated based on your principal but rather on the position after leverage.
For example, with 1000 U you open 100x, at this point, the position for calculating the fee is 10 WU, and opening a position will definitely lead to closing it, so this order incurs at least 20 WU in fees. The fee on Binance is 0.1%. For example, if you open a position of 5 ETH, the fees for the round trip is 18 U. Do not underestimate the rebate; every month, you can save a few meals at Haidilao, or save tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands. This money is the capital for our resurgence in difficult times.
To put it bluntly, if you do not have a rebate, it is equivalent to giving away money that originally belonged to you to the platform.
You are playing with leverage; fees are magnified many times over. If you do not have a rebate, it is like giving away money every day.
Want to improve your win rate? Want to improve your survival rate?
First, save what can be saved. Welcome everyone to join the Time Chat Group! In just a few minutes, both new and old users can start their rebates!
If you haven't opened a rebate yet, quickly contact me to activate the rebate; commissions are sent to you every week! Permanently valid! 20% off fee invitation code: YYJ116
Click this to join the Binance group: 时光的日常分享
1. When your position is profitable, the rebate is another part of your earnings.
2. When your position breaks even, the rebate is your profit.
3. When your position incurs a loss or is liquidated, the rebate can help you recover and start over.
Many brothers think that a few hundred or a few thousand U is not worth opening; that is because you do not understand the calculation standard for fees. Fees are never calculated based on your principal but rather on the position after leverage.
For example, with 1000 U you open 100x, at this point, the position for calculating the fee is 10 WU, and opening a position will definitely lead to closing it, so this order incurs at least 20 WU in fees. The fee on Binance is 0.1%. For example, if you open a position of 5 ETH, the fees for the round trip is 18 U. Do not underestimate the rebate; every month, you can save a few meals at Haidilao, or save tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands. This money is the capital for our resurgence in difficult times.
To put it bluntly, if you do not have a rebate, it is equivalent to giving away money that originally belonged to you to the platform.
You are playing with leverage; fees are magnified many times over. If you do not have a rebate, it is like giving away money every day.
Want to improve your win rate? Want to improve your survival rate?
First, save what can be saved. Welcome everyone to join the Time Chat Group! In just a few minutes, both new and old users can start their rebates!
If you haven't opened a rebate yet, quickly contact me to activate the rebate; commissions are sent to you every week! Permanently valid! 20% off fee invitation code: YYJ116
Click this to join the Binance group: 时光的日常分享
Gold has reached the 4420 short zone I mentioned. I shorted gold—first target 4370. Make sure to place a stop-loss to prevent a market rebound.
时光预言机i
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Gold is currently holding around 4400. Personally, I don’t think gold has fully turned bearish; the drop is only because the Non-Farm Payrolls data affected it.
From my perspective, 4350–4280 is the key support zone. Early last week, gold quickly dipped from the 4440 area. On Tuesday, it bottomed at about 4283, then rebounded continuously. On Thursday and Friday it pushed back up to around 4510 again, but it failed to hold above 4500 both times.
Strong sell pressure has formed above 4500. The 4400 area isn’t a very good spot for either going long or short. If you have to trade, look for a short entry around 4420. A move around 50 dollars down from there would be totally reasonable.
Gold’s uncertainty is too high, so you should still focus on this week’s PPI and CPI $XAUT
From my perspective, 4350–4280 is the key support zone. Early last week, gold quickly dipped from the 4440 area. On Tuesday, it bottomed at about 4283, then rebounded continuously. On Thursday and Friday it pushed back up to around 4510 again, but it failed to hold above 4500 both times.
Strong sell pressure has formed above 4500. The 4400 area isn’t a very good spot for either going long or short. If you have to trade, look for a short entry around 4420. A move around 50 dollars down from there would be totally reasonable.
Gold’s uncertainty is too high, so you should still focus on this week’s PPI and CPI $XAUT
Continue to stick with the bearish idea. The odds we mentioned yesterday weren’t very good—I believe none of you went long, right? Now it’s just a matter of whether $BTC
can hold at 75–77k and then test 83k to the upside. If it breaks below, then we’ll need to reassess the chart.
I’ve noticed that some big players near the bottom are slowly distributing (selling). I think 82k is the temporary top in the short term. Plus, tomorrow’s U.S. Treasury repo might squeeze assets with more speculative characteristics.
Yesterday in the group I recommended a few short positions, but I found that those altcoins still haven’t
$BTC
fallen down enough 🙄
can hold at 75–77k and then test 83k to the upside. If it breaks below, then we’ll need to reassess the chart.
I’ve noticed that some big players near the bottom are slowly distributing (selling). I think 82k is the temporary top in the short term. Plus, tomorrow’s U.S. Treasury repo might squeeze assets with more speculative characteristics.
Yesterday in the group I recommended a few short positions, but I found that those altcoins still haven’t
$BTC
fallen down enough 🙄
时光预言机i
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$BTC
I have always felt that 78k is the current support. Looking back at the market in the past few days, you can see that 79k has been supported all along. Institutions are not selling, and retail is buying, which has kept the market fluctuating around 79–80k.
From the drop on the 5th to the consolidation over the weekend, it has all highlighted the market’s strength. From the 4-hour chart, 83k is the current important resistance level. If the market can hold above it, 83k is very likely to open up room toward 88k → 95k → 100k.
$BTC
If it repeatedly fails to break through around 80k, a deeper pullback is likely to occur.
If it falls below 77k, the structure of this rebound will clearly weaken, and 72k–75k is the more important medium-term defense zone in my view.
On September 3, BTC ETF saw net inflows of about $730.8M in a single day, and on September 4 there was still about $174.6M. Institutional buying has not disappeared.
Most of the shorts are from people who missed this rally and are shorting because of that. In the end, the goal is still to buy into longs and spot. A more comfortable entry is to wait for a pullback to 77–79k for confirmation, or wait for BTC to truly break above 83k and then retest without losing it. At the current level, going long with high leverage does not offer a good risk-reward ratio.
Bull market phase two begins —
Scenario A: BTC holds 75–77k
→ Breaks above $83k
→ $86k
→ $90k
→ $95–100k
Scenario B: Continues with big swings
BTC 75k–83k keeps whipsawing
That is actually not bad either, as it will fully absorb the trapped positions in the market.
Scenario C: Rebound ends — 20%
BTC:
Falls below 75k, then 70k → $67k.
If ETF outflows become massive at the same time, this scenario is difficult to realize unless there is a rate hike.
I have always felt that 78k is the current support. Looking back at the market in the past few days, you can see that 79k has been supported all along. Institutions are not selling, and retail is buying, which has kept the market fluctuating around 79–80k.
From the drop on the 5th to the consolidation over the weekend, it has all highlighted the market’s strength. From the 4-hour chart, 83k is the current important resistance level. If the market can hold above it, 83k is very likely to open up room toward 88k → 95k → 100k.
$BTC
If it repeatedly fails to break through around 80k, a deeper pullback is likely to occur.
If it falls below 77k, the structure of this rebound will clearly weaken, and 72k–75k is the more important medium-term defense zone in my view.
On September 3, BTC ETF saw net inflows of about $730.8M in a single day, and on September 4 there was still about $174.6M. Institutional buying has not disappeared.
Most of the shorts are from people who missed this rally and are shorting because of that. In the end, the goal is still to buy into longs and spot. A more comfortable entry is to wait for a pullback to 77–79k for confirmation, or wait for BTC to truly break above 83k and then retest without losing it. At the current level, going long with high leverage does not offer a good risk-reward ratio.
Bull market phase two begins —
Scenario A: BTC holds 75–77k
→ Breaks above $83k
→ $86k
→ $90k
→ $95–100k
Scenario B: Continues with big swings
BTC 75k–83k keeps whipsawing
That is actually not bad either, as it will fully absorb the trapped positions in the market.
Scenario C: Rebound ends — 20%
BTC:
Falls below 75k, then 70k → $67k.
If ETF outflows become massive at the same time, this scenario is difficult to realize unless there is a rate hike.
Gold is currently holding around 4400. Personally, I don’t think gold has fully turned bearish; the drop is only because the Non-Farm Payrolls data affected it.
From my perspective, 4350–4280 is the key support zone. Early last week, gold quickly dipped from the 4440 area. On Tuesday, it bottomed at about 4283, then rebounded continuously. On Thursday and Friday it pushed back up to around 4510 again, but it failed to hold above 4500 both times.
Strong sell pressure has formed above 4500. The 4400 area isn’t a very good spot for either going long or short. If you have to trade, look for a short entry around 4420. A move around 50 dollars down from there would be totally reasonable.
Gold’s uncertainty is too high, so you should still focus on this week’s PPI and CPI $XAUT
From my perspective, 4350–4280 is the key support zone. Early last week, gold quickly dipped from the 4440 area. On Tuesday, it bottomed at about 4283, then rebounded continuously. On Thursday and Friday it pushed back up to around 4510 again, but it failed to hold above 4500 both times.
Strong sell pressure has formed above 4500. The 4400 area isn’t a very good spot for either going long or short. If you have to trade, look for a short entry around 4420. A move around 50 dollars down from there would be totally reasonable.
Gold’s uncertainty is too high, so you should still focus on this week’s PPI and CPI $XAUT
$BTC
I have always felt that 78k is the current support. Looking back at the market in the past few days, you can see that 79k has been supported all along. Institutions are not selling, and retail is buying, which has kept the market fluctuating around 79–80k.
From the drop on the 5th to the consolidation over the weekend, it has all highlighted the market’s strength. From the 4-hour chart, 83k is the current important resistance level. If the market can hold above it, 83k is very likely to open up room toward 88k → 95k → 100k.
$BTC
If it repeatedly fails to break through around 80k, a deeper pullback is likely to occur.
If it falls below 77k, the structure of this rebound will clearly weaken, and 72k–75k is the more important medium-term defense zone in my view.
On September 3, BTC ETF saw net inflows of about $730.8M in a single day, and on September 4 there was still about $174.6M. Institutional buying has not disappeared.
Most of the shorts are from people who missed this rally and are shorting because of that. In the end, the goal is still to buy into longs and spot. A more comfortable entry is to wait for a pullback to 77–79k for confirmation, or wait for BTC to truly break above 83k and then retest without losing it. At the current level, going long with high leverage does not offer a good risk-reward ratio.
Bull market phase two begins —
Scenario A: BTC holds 75–77k
→ Breaks above $83k
→ $86k
→ $90k
→ $95–100k
Scenario B: Continues with big swings
BTC 75k–83k keeps whipsawing
That is actually not bad either, as it will fully absorb the trapped positions in the market.
Scenario C: Rebound ends — 20%
BTC:
Falls below 75k, then 70k → $67k.
If ETF outflows become massive at the same time, this scenario is difficult to realize unless there is a rate hike.
I have always felt that 78k is the current support. Looking back at the market in the past few days, you can see that 79k has been supported all along. Institutions are not selling, and retail is buying, which has kept the market fluctuating around 79–80k.
From the drop on the 5th to the consolidation over the weekend, it has all highlighted the market’s strength. From the 4-hour chart, 83k is the current important resistance level. If the market can hold above it, 83k is very likely to open up room toward 88k → 95k → 100k.
$BTC
If it repeatedly fails to break through around 80k, a deeper pullback is likely to occur.
If it falls below 77k, the structure of this rebound will clearly weaken, and 72k–75k is the more important medium-term defense zone in my view.
On September 3, BTC ETF saw net inflows of about $730.8M in a single day, and on September 4 there was still about $174.6M. Institutional buying has not disappeared.
Most of the shorts are from people who missed this rally and are shorting because of that. In the end, the goal is still to buy into longs and spot. A more comfortable entry is to wait for a pullback to 77–79k for confirmation, or wait for BTC to truly break above 83k and then retest without losing it. At the current level, going long with high leverage does not offer a good risk-reward ratio.
Bull market phase two begins —
Scenario A: BTC holds 75–77k
→ Breaks above $83k
→ $86k
→ $90k
→ $95–100k
Scenario B: Continues with big swings
BTC 75k–83k keeps whipsawing
That is actually not bad either, as it will fully absorb the trapped positions in the market.
Scenario C: Rebound ends — 20%
BTC:
Falls below 75k, then 70k → $67k.
If ETF outflows become massive at the same time, this scenario is difficult to realize unless there is a rate hike.
时光预言机i
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In the afternoon, I rode the market move triggered by the non-farm payroll data and went short at $BTC
I basically caught the position well. I saw many people rushing to open long positions, but fortunately I calmed down and didn’t randomly go long. The 79k target is getting close, so I’m preparing to take profits gradually. After all, if you can take a bite, take a bite.
There are quite a lot of buy orders at 79k, but I’ve already set a breakeven stop loss and am waiting for 78k below.
I basically caught the position well. I saw many people rushing to open long positions, but fortunately I calmed down and didn’t randomly go long. The 79k target is getting close, so I’m preparing to take profits gradually. After all, if you can take a bite, take a bite.
There are quite a lot of buy orders at 79k, but I’ve already set a breakeven stop loss and am waiting for 78k below.
The current market is quite split. After the non-farm payroll data was released, gold and crypto fell
At the stock market open, the memory/storage sector was actually rising. The main reason is that demand for storage has been continuously increasing! After all, AI large models can’t do without storage. Dell’s AI server backlog of orders is about $95 billion, and demand is still squeezing into memory and flash storage
The main issue is still shortages and price increases; supply is falling short of demand. Right now, on Taobao, a single DDR5 16G memory stick costs 2059. When I built my computer earlier, two 16G sticks cost less than 1400, and in just one year the price has instead tripled
Gold and BTC are all risk assets, while storage is the current hard currency. The non-farm report is hitting “risk assets,” but it can’t hit “shortages and price increases”
$SNDK 1520 is really rock-solid support
At the stock market open, the memory/storage sector was actually rising. The main reason is that demand for storage has been continuously increasing! After all, AI large models can’t do without storage. Dell’s AI server backlog of orders is about $95 billion, and demand is still squeezing into memory and flash storage
The main issue is still shortages and price increases; supply is falling short of demand. Right now, on Taobao, a single DDR5 16G memory stick costs 2059. When I built my computer earlier, two 16G sticks cost less than 1400, and in just one year the price has instead tripled
Gold and BTC are all risk assets, while storage is the current hard currency. The non-farm report is hitting “risk assets,” but it can’t hit “shortages and price increases”
$SNDK 1520 is really rock-solid support
时光预言机i
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$SNDK This storage market washing-up is really impressive. After buying at the low point yesterday and setting a 1630 take-profit, I only missed it by a little—if only I’d hit the target. I only managed to exit in the middle of the night.
But this kind of up-and-down market is best for swing trading. Still, keep an eye around 1520 to see if there’s another chance to get in. Don’t think about holding long-term this month—take one bite and run is the wisest choice.
If it breaks below 1520, then you need to watch for 1460. Play it slowly. Buying on dips over the last few days hasn’t been an issue. Just remember to run before September 9.
But this kind of up-and-down market is best for swing trading. Still, keep an eye around 1520 to see if there’s another chance to get in. Don’t think about holding long-term this month—take one bite and run is the wisest choice.
If it breaks below 1520, then you need to watch for 1460. Play it slowly. Buying on dips over the last few days hasn’t been an issue. Just remember to run before September 9.
In the afternoon, I rode the market move triggered by the non-farm payroll data and went short at $BTC
I basically caught the position well. I saw many people rushing to open long positions, but fortunately I calmed down and didn’t randomly go long. The 79k target is getting close, so I’m preparing to take profits gradually. After all, if you can take a bite, take a bite.
There are quite a lot of buy orders at 79k, but I’ve already set a breakeven stop loss and am waiting for 78k below.
I basically caught the position well. I saw many people rushing to open long positions, but fortunately I calmed down and didn’t randomly go long. The 79k target is getting close, so I’m preparing to take profits gradually. After all, if you can take a bite, take a bite.
There are quite a lot of buy orders at 79k, but I’ve already set a breakeven stop loss and am waiting for 78k below.
Verified
The August non-farm payrolls released today were far above expectations, with non-farm new employment
+162k. This is really hard to swallow, and it far exceeded expectations. It’s the classic case of “strong employment → rising rate hike expectations → pressure on risk assets.”
Gold and $BTC
started falling the moment the data came out. I happened to bet on the right direction. Just like I said earlier, the current market is all about shaking out positions back and forth; what’s needed is for retail traders to吐出筹码.
For BTC, a single non-farm report has roughly a 50/50 chance of determining the day’s up or down direction. This time, the data was a huge beat. From the chart, the short-term impact on the market is quite obvious, but what truly sets the direction will still be the subsequent CPI and the September FOMC.
Strong employment is only a “necessary but not sufficient” condition. Once the data lands, longs get quickly wiped out, and then depending on the details (unemployment rate, wages, revisions), price either bounces back or keeps drifting lower.
Retail traders are being played back and forth $BTC . The next focus is at 78k
+162k. This is really hard to swallow, and it far exceeded expectations. It’s the classic case of “strong employment → rising rate hike expectations → pressure on risk assets.”
Gold and $BTC
started falling the moment the data came out. I happened to bet on the right direction. Just like I said earlier, the current market is all about shaking out positions back and forth; what’s needed is for retail traders to吐出筹码.
For BTC, a single non-farm report has roughly a 50/50 chance of determining the day’s up or down direction. This time, the data was a huge beat. From the chart, the short-term impact on the market is quite obvious, but what truly sets the direction will still be the subsequent CPI and the September FOMC.
Strong employment is only a “necessary but not sufficient” condition. Once the data lands, longs get quickly wiped out, and then depending on the details (unemployment rate, wages, revisions), price either bounces back or keeps drifting lower.
Retail traders are being played back and forth $BTC . The next focus is at 78k
时光预言机i
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Yesterday Waller's dovish remarks: If the soon-to-be-released August inflation data continues to show easing price pressures, he tends to keep rates unchanged at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. He directly reduced the probability of a rate hike to 51.6%. Gold and $BTC rose in sync $BTC .
Rebounded from 7.73k and reached a peak of 8.2k, breaking above the high set on August 28.
Tonight at 8:30, the Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released. The expectation is an increase of about 55,000–56,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.1%. If it again significantly misses expectations or comes with a rise in the unemployment rate, it may further lower the probability of a rate hike—supporting gold and risk assets. If it clearly beats expectations, it could reignite concerns about a rate hike, supporting the US dollar and weighing on gold.
The Nonfarm Payrolls data also directly affects what comes next for CPI. It mainly comes down to how the market digests it.
BTC's current price has also reached the level it was at before the big drop in May this year. Whether it continues to break higher or pulls back and trades in a range will depend on the major data over the next few days.
But judging by the ETF activity, the intent is very clear: adding exposure in support of no rate hike in September. Yesterday alone, inflows reached 723 million BTC.
Rebounded from 7.73k and reached a peak of 8.2k, breaking above the high set on August 28.
Tonight at 8:30, the Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released. The expectation is an increase of about 55,000–56,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.1%. If it again significantly misses expectations or comes with a rise in the unemployment rate, it may further lower the probability of a rate hike—supporting gold and risk assets. If it clearly beats expectations, it could reignite concerns about a rate hike, supporting the US dollar and weighing on gold.
The Nonfarm Payrolls data also directly affects what comes next for CPI. It mainly comes down to how the market digests it.
BTC's current price has also reached the level it was at before the big drop in May this year. Whether it continues to break higher or pulls back and trades in a range will depend on the major data over the next few days.
But judging by the ETF activity, the intent is very clear: adding exposure in support of no rate hike in September. Yesterday alone, inflows reached 723 million BTC.
Gold $XAUT
Yesterday, it also surged to 4520 under the dovish remarks. I really underestimated everyone’s love for gold. Once gold starts moving, it’s no less than $BTC . In the short term, the pressure is at 4530—there may be resistance at 4530.
Ever since I missed the first half of the move in gold, I’ve been a bit unsure. Keep an eye on the 4530 resistance—if it can’t break above, then consider shorting.
Yesterday, it also surged to 4520 under the dovish remarks. I really underestimated everyone’s love for gold. Once gold starts moving, it’s no less than $BTC . In the short term, the pressure is at 4530—there may be resistance at 4530.
Ever since I missed the first half of the move in gold, I’ve been a bit unsure. Keep an eye on the 4530 resistance—if it can’t break above, then consider shorting.
时光预言机i
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This gold rebound is a bit beyond my expectations. I originally thought that testing the rebound from 4280 up to 4350 would be about it, but today I saw gold directly break above 4400, and it's now at 4430.
Trading volume shows no signs of weakening at all. If you bought near 4280, you can first look at the 4460 level.
Trading volume shows no signs of weakening at all. If you bought near 4280, you can first look at the 4460 level.
Verified
Yesterday Waller's dovish remarks: If the soon-to-be-released August inflation data continues to show easing price pressures, he tends to keep rates unchanged at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. He directly reduced the probability of a rate hike to 51.6%. Gold and $BTC rose in sync $BTC .
Rebounded from 7.73k and reached a peak of 8.2k, breaking above the high set on August 28.
Tonight at 8:30, the Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released. The expectation is an increase of about 55,000–56,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.1%. If it again significantly misses expectations or comes with a rise in the unemployment rate, it may further lower the probability of a rate hike—supporting gold and risk assets. If it clearly beats expectations, it could reignite concerns about a rate hike, supporting the US dollar and weighing on gold.
The Nonfarm Payrolls data also directly affects what comes next for CPI. It mainly comes down to how the market digests it.
BTC's current price has also reached the level it was at before the big drop in May this year. Whether it continues to break higher or pulls back and trades in a range will depend on the major data over the next few days.
But judging by the ETF activity, the intent is very clear: adding exposure in support of no rate hike in September. Yesterday alone, inflows reached 723 million BTC.
Rebounded from 7.73k and reached a peak of 8.2k, breaking above the high set on August 28.
Tonight at 8:30, the Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released. The expectation is an increase of about 55,000–56,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.1%. If it again significantly misses expectations or comes with a rise in the unemployment rate, it may further lower the probability of a rate hike—supporting gold and risk assets. If it clearly beats expectations, it could reignite concerns about a rate hike, supporting the US dollar and weighing on gold.
The Nonfarm Payrolls data also directly affects what comes next for CPI. It mainly comes down to how the market digests it.
BTC's current price has also reached the level it was at before the big drop in May this year. Whether it continues to break higher or pulls back and trades in a range will depend on the major data over the next few days.
But judging by the ETF activity, the intent is very clear: adding exposure in support of no rate hike in September. Yesterday alone, inflows reached 723 million BTC.
时光预言机i
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#美联储加息概率升至68%
I just took a look at the CME FedWatch: the Fed’s interest rate hike probability has jumped to 68%. A week ago, it was still under 40%
What exactly happened?
The key is last week’s hawkish remarks from Waller (the “hawkish speech”), which emphasized that the 12-month PCE inflation is 3.7% and the 6-month figure is 4.1%, both clearly above the 2% target. He also reiterated that the 2% goal is “firm and fixed,” and that interest rates remain the primary policy tool.
The takeaway is that unless inflation shows a clear retreat, a September rate hike is already on the agenda.
Impact on global assets
U.S. Treasuries: The policy-sensitive 2-year yield rose noticeably (at one point to around 4.34% and above). The 10-year yield climbed to roughly 4.75%–4.79%, hitting a multi-month high. Typically, short-end gains are larger than long-end gains, the yield curve flattens, reflecting the market pricing in near-term hikes. Meanwhile, some also believe the anti-inflation resolve may suppress forward inflation expectations.
U.S. equities: On September 1, the three major indexes fell: the Dow by about -0.8%, the S&P 500 by about -0.7%, and the Nasdaq by about -1%. Growth and tech stocks are more sensitive to discount rates, so they faced more pressure. Rising yields increase firms’ financing costs and reduce the valuation of forward earnings.
U.S. dollar: Strengthened, putting pressure on other currencies.
Gold and crypto assets: Gold dropped sharply from its highs (it fell more than 3% on the day of the Waller remarks, and then continued to weaken). Bitcoin also faced simultaneous pressure. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Crude oil: Geopolitical conflict often pushes oil higher, but that, in turn, reinforces inflation concerns—creating a feedback loop of “oil prices → inflation expectations → rate-hike pricing.”
The market’s reaction has already provided an answer to the September hike. In the next two weeks, we’ll watch the non-farm payrolls data and CPI closely. If inflation and employment remain strong, the probability of a September hike could rise further to over 80%. If inflation clearly cools, it could swing back toward “50-50” or even lower.
We’re at another moment of big volatility—don’t make things worse. Otherwise, it’s easy to get yourself wiped out.
I just took a look at the CME FedWatch: the Fed’s interest rate hike probability has jumped to 68%. A week ago, it was still under 40%
What exactly happened?
The key is last week’s hawkish remarks from Waller (the “hawkish speech”), which emphasized that the 12-month PCE inflation is 3.7% and the 6-month figure is 4.1%, both clearly above the 2% target. He also reiterated that the 2% goal is “firm and fixed,” and that interest rates remain the primary policy tool.
The takeaway is that unless inflation shows a clear retreat, a September rate hike is already on the agenda.
Impact on global assets
U.S. Treasuries: The policy-sensitive 2-year yield rose noticeably (at one point to around 4.34% and above). The 10-year yield climbed to roughly 4.75%–4.79%, hitting a multi-month high. Typically, short-end gains are larger than long-end gains, the yield curve flattens, reflecting the market pricing in near-term hikes. Meanwhile, some also believe the anti-inflation resolve may suppress forward inflation expectations.
U.S. equities: On September 1, the three major indexes fell: the Dow by about -0.8%, the S&P 500 by about -0.7%, and the Nasdaq by about -1%. Growth and tech stocks are more sensitive to discount rates, so they faced more pressure. Rising yields increase firms’ financing costs and reduce the valuation of forward earnings.
U.S. dollar: Strengthened, putting pressure on other currencies.
Gold and crypto assets: Gold dropped sharply from its highs (it fell more than 3% on the day of the Waller remarks, and then continued to weaken). Bitcoin also faced simultaneous pressure. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Crude oil: Geopolitical conflict often pushes oil higher, but that, in turn, reinforces inflation concerns—creating a feedback loop of “oil prices → inflation expectations → rate-hike pricing.”
The market’s reaction has already provided an answer to the September hike. In the next two weeks, we’ll watch the non-farm payrolls data and CPI closely. If inflation and employment remain strong, the probability of a September hike could rise further to over 80%. If inflation clearly cools, it could swing back toward “50-50” or even lower.
We’re at another moment of big volatility—don’t make things worse. Otherwise, it’s easy to get yourself wiped out.
Originally I intended to short crude oil. I opened Binance and found $CL
I saw that the funding rate shown above is negative—it's continued from the 31st up to now, with four straight days of negative funding.
I just looked at WTI’s speculative net positions and it’s still net long; there hasn’t been an extreme short squeeze situation. That means the recent shorts are mostly retail traders selling short, not big institutions.
Now, the main shorts are betting on two things: first, that the conflict won’t escalate significantly for a long time (it may even ease); second, that high oil prices can’t be maintained long-term—the demand will be the first to buckle.
If the conflict escalates further and the strait is completely cut off, the shorts would be in a very bad spot too. Oil prices are currently in a high-volatility, high-uncertainty phase—there’s not a small risk in shorting. But I think that with oil staying above 100, there won’t be a situation where prices near 95 make people start considering shorting.
I saw that the funding rate shown above is negative—it's continued from the 31st up to now, with four straight days of negative funding.
I just looked at WTI’s speculative net positions and it’s still net long; there hasn’t been an extreme short squeeze situation. That means the recent shorts are mostly retail traders selling short, not big institutions.
Now, the main shorts are betting on two things: first, that the conflict won’t escalate significantly for a long time (it may even ease); second, that high oil prices can’t be maintained long-term—the demand will be the first to buckle.
If the conflict escalates further and the strait is completely cut off, the shorts would be in a very bad spot too. Oil prices are currently in a high-volatility, high-uncertainty phase—there’s not a small risk in shorting. But I think that with oil staying above 100, there won’t be a situation where prices near 95 make people start considering shorting.
This gold rebound is a bit beyond my expectations. I originally thought that testing the rebound from 4280 up to 4350 would be about it, but today I saw gold directly break above 4400, and it's now at 4430.
Trading volume shows no signs of weakening at all. If you bought near 4280, you can first look at the 4460 level.
Trading volume shows no signs of weakening at all. If you bought near 4280, you can first look at the 4460 level.
时光预言机i
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Gold fell again by nearly $100 after the reminder I sent yesterday. From the 4280 I mentioned, the low was 4288, and it’s now slightly rebounding.
The main buying power is still coming from users in Asia. I see many Douyin influencers calling to buy at around 4400—buying more as it drops. Those who bought near 4280 in the short term may be able to ride a rebound up to 4350.
I think this rebound won’t hold for long. At least I’ll only start buying in large quantities when it reaches around 4200.
The main buying power is still coming from users in Asia. I see many Douyin influencers calling to buy at around 4400—buying more as it drops. Those who bought near 4280 in the short term may be able to ride a rebound up to 4350.
I think this rebound won’t hold for long. At least I’ll only start buying in large quantities when it reaches around 4200.
Verified
#美联储加息概率升至68%
I just took a look at the CME FedWatch: the Fed’s interest rate hike probability has jumped to 68%. A week ago, it was still under 40%
What exactly happened?
The key is last week’s hawkish remarks from Waller (the “hawkish speech”), which emphasized that the 12-month PCE inflation is 3.7% and the 6-month figure is 4.1%, both clearly above the 2% target. He also reiterated that the 2% goal is “firm and fixed,” and that interest rates remain the primary policy tool.
The takeaway is that unless inflation shows a clear retreat, a September rate hike is already on the agenda.
Impact on global assets
U.S. Treasuries: The policy-sensitive 2-year yield rose noticeably (at one point to around 4.34% and above). The 10-year yield climbed to roughly 4.75%–4.79%, hitting a multi-month high. Typically, short-end gains are larger than long-end gains, the yield curve flattens, reflecting the market pricing in near-term hikes. Meanwhile, some also believe the anti-inflation resolve may suppress forward inflation expectations.
U.S. equities: On September 1, the three major indexes fell: the Dow by about -0.8%, the S&P 500 by about -0.7%, and the Nasdaq by about -1%. Growth and tech stocks are more sensitive to discount rates, so they faced more pressure. Rising yields increase firms’ financing costs and reduce the valuation of forward earnings.
U.S. dollar: Strengthened, putting pressure on other currencies.
Gold and crypto assets: Gold dropped sharply from its highs (it fell more than 3% on the day of the Waller remarks, and then continued to weaken). Bitcoin also faced simultaneous pressure. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Crude oil: Geopolitical conflict often pushes oil higher, but that, in turn, reinforces inflation concerns—creating a feedback loop of “oil prices → inflation expectations → rate-hike pricing.”
The market’s reaction has already provided an answer to the September hike. In the next two weeks, we’ll watch the non-farm payrolls data and CPI closely. If inflation and employment remain strong, the probability of a September hike could rise further to over 80%. If inflation clearly cools, it could swing back toward “50-50” or even lower.
We’re at another moment of big volatility—don’t make things worse. Otherwise, it’s easy to get yourself wiped out.
I just took a look at the CME FedWatch: the Fed’s interest rate hike probability has jumped to 68%. A week ago, it was still under 40%
What exactly happened?
The key is last week’s hawkish remarks from Waller (the “hawkish speech”), which emphasized that the 12-month PCE inflation is 3.7% and the 6-month figure is 4.1%, both clearly above the 2% target. He also reiterated that the 2% goal is “firm and fixed,” and that interest rates remain the primary policy tool.
The takeaway is that unless inflation shows a clear retreat, a September rate hike is already on the agenda.
Impact on global assets
U.S. Treasuries: The policy-sensitive 2-year yield rose noticeably (at one point to around 4.34% and above). The 10-year yield climbed to roughly 4.75%–4.79%, hitting a multi-month high. Typically, short-end gains are larger than long-end gains, the yield curve flattens, reflecting the market pricing in near-term hikes. Meanwhile, some also believe the anti-inflation resolve may suppress forward inflation expectations.
U.S. equities: On September 1, the three major indexes fell: the Dow by about -0.8%, the S&P 500 by about -0.7%, and the Nasdaq by about -1%. Growth and tech stocks are more sensitive to discount rates, so they faced more pressure. Rising yields increase firms’ financing costs and reduce the valuation of forward earnings.
U.S. dollar: Strengthened, putting pressure on other currencies.
Gold and crypto assets: Gold dropped sharply from its highs (it fell more than 3% on the day of the Waller remarks, and then continued to weaken). Bitcoin also faced simultaneous pressure. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Crude oil: Geopolitical conflict often pushes oil higher, but that, in turn, reinforces inflation concerns—creating a feedback loop of “oil prices → inflation expectations → rate-hike pricing.”
The market’s reaction has already provided an answer to the September hike. In the next two weeks, we’ll watch the non-farm payrolls data and CPI closely. If inflation and employment remain strong, the probability of a September hike could rise further to over 80%. If inflation clearly cools, it could swing back toward “50-50” or even lower.
We’re at another moment of big volatility—don’t make things worse. Otherwise, it’s easy to get yourself wiped out.
Gold fell again by nearly $100 after the reminder I sent yesterday. From the 4280 I mentioned, the low was 4288, and it’s now slightly rebounding.
The main buying power is still coming from users in Asia. I see many Douyin influencers calling to buy at around 4400—buying more as it drops. Those who bought near 4280 in the short term may be able to ride a rebound up to 4350.
I think this rebound won’t hold for long. At least I’ll only start buying in large quantities when it reaches around 4200.
The main buying power is still coming from users in Asia. I see many Douyin influencers calling to buy at around 4400—buying more as it drops. Those who bought near 4280 in the short term may be able to ride a rebound up to 4350.
I think this rebound won’t hold for long. At least I’ll only start buying in large quantities when it reaches around 4200.
Partly True
September 9: U.S. stocks begin buying back Treasury bonds. The per-transaction buyback limit is raised from $2.0 billion to $4.0 billion, effective until November 4.
Now, the recent 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.79%–4.81%, while the 30-year is around 5.27%–5.28%, close to or back to the level before the announcement.
This scale is still relatively small for the entire Treasury market (over $40 trillion) and for the quarterly issuance of long-dated new bonds. The original plan from September 9 to November 4 had a long-end buyback limit of about $14 billion; after doubling, the additional amount is roughly another $14 billion.
The increased buybacks on September 9 provide marginal support and improve liquidity for long-dated U.S. Treasuries. In the near term, they may help ease upward pressure on yields and be positive for risk assets and gold. But personally, I think their impact on the current market is there, but not large.
The later it gets, the more you need to stay calm. Oil up, U.S. stocks up, and gold down, and crypto down do not necessarily mean capital is fleeing. It could simply mean choosing a more prudent play—seeking safety. You can see this in the crypto market: while various low-quality altcoins with high volatility are moving around, the ecosystem as a whole has been rising.
So I think shorting is fine, but it must be a short-term short. Trying to profit from a one-shot drop of several thousand to tens of thousands of dollars is difficult in the current market. Frequent back-and-forth will shake you out before you can get the move.
Now, the recent 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.79%–4.81%, while the 30-year is around 5.27%–5.28%, close to or back to the level before the announcement.
This scale is still relatively small for the entire Treasury market (over $40 trillion) and for the quarterly issuance of long-dated new bonds. The original plan from September 9 to November 4 had a long-end buyback limit of about $14 billion; after doubling, the additional amount is roughly another $14 billion.
The increased buybacks on September 9 provide marginal support and improve liquidity for long-dated U.S. Treasuries. In the near term, they may help ease upward pressure on yields and be positive for risk assets and gold. But personally, I think their impact on the current market is there, but not large.
The later it gets, the more you need to stay calm. Oil up, U.S. stocks up, and gold down, and crypto down do not necessarily mean capital is fleeing. It could simply mean choosing a more prudent play—seeking safety. You can see this in the crypto market: while various low-quality altcoins with high volatility are moving around, the ecosystem as a whole has been rising.
So I think shorting is fine, but it must be a short-term short. Trying to profit from a one-shot drop of several thousand to tens of thousands of dollars is difficult in the current market. Frequent back-and-forth will shake you out before you can get the move.
$SNDK This storage market washing-up is really impressive. After buying at the low point yesterday and setting a 1630 take-profit, I only missed it by a little—if only I’d hit the target. I only managed to exit in the middle of the night.
But this kind of up-and-down market is best for swing trading. Still, keep an eye around 1520 to see if there’s another chance to get in. Don’t think about holding long-term this month—take one bite and run is the wisest choice.
If it breaks below 1520, then you need to watch for 1460. Play it slowly. Buying on dips over the last few days hasn’t been an issue. Just remember to run before September 9.
But this kind of up-and-down market is best for swing trading. Still, keep an eye around 1520 to see if there’s another chance to get in. Don’t think about holding long-term this month—take one bite and run is the wisest choice.
If it breaks below 1520, then you need to watch for 1460. Play it slowly. Buying on dips over the last few days hasn’t been an issue. Just remember to run before September 9.
时光预言机i
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Still it’s the $SNDKB 1520 setup that successfully got bought in
Just one step away from the 1630 I said—if it moves a bit higher, you can see 1680–1700
Just one step away from the 1630 I said—if it moves a bit higher, you can see 1680–1700
Six years ago, BNB Chain launched its first block
Now, six years later, the things this chain can carry are completely different. In DeFi, earning yields, supporting cross-chain interactions, RWA with over 300,000 holders—tokenized funds and stocks—and many more “overnight millionaires” have appeared on the BSC chain!
And for many people, it’s been their “first-ever BNB.” My first BNB was pretty ordinary—just gas for interactions and a fee discount. Only later did it start to develop into an on-chain ecosystem. From a time when it was hard to use to now, where tens of millions of users are using it!
From transfers, Swap, and lending to stocks, Memes, and AI Agents.
The ecosystem keeps growing—BNB Chain’s story is only just beginning.
Happy 6th anniversary!
Now, six years later, the things this chain can carry are completely different. In DeFi, earning yields, supporting cross-chain interactions, RWA with over 300,000 holders—tokenized funds and stocks—and many more “overnight millionaires” have appeared on the BSC chain!
And for many people, it’s been their “first-ever BNB.” My first BNB was pretty ordinary—just gas for interactions and a fee discount. Only later did it start to develop into an on-chain ecosystem. From a time when it was hard to use to now, where tens of millions of users are using it!
From transfers, Swap, and lending to stocks, Memes, and AI Agents.
The ecosystem keeps growing—BNB Chain’s story is only just beginning.
Happy 6th anniversary!
Still it’s the $SNDKB 1520 setup that successfully got bought in
Just one step away from the 1630 I said—if it moves a bit higher, you can see 1680–1700
Just one step away from the 1630 I said—if it moves a bit higher, you can see 1680–1700
时光预言机i
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$SNDK is really capable of washing. It came in with a squat straight in the middle of the night. Luckily I took profit and closed my position at 1530; otherwise this trend would definitely shake me out. But it looks like $SNDK can still go up for a bit. 1630 shouldn’t be too big of a problem. Tonight, I’ll see if there’s an opportunity to buy again around 1520!
$SNDK is really capable of washing. It came in with a squat straight in the middle of the night. Luckily I took profit and closed my position at 1530; otherwise this trend would definitely shake me out. But it looks like $SNDK can still go up for a bit. 1630 shouldn’t be too big of a problem. Tonight, I’ll see if there’s an opportunity to buy again around 1520!
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