Daily Coin:
Last Friday's PCE data was basically in line with expectations, but there was no huge deviation in PCE data in the past, so it caused a little instantaneous fluctuation. This Friday, the macroeconomics will release unemployment and non-farm data for May. The current expectations are general, so stay tuned. Big funds will wait for these data to land before they start to move. Another thing to pay attention to is the interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. If the decision is to cut interest rates, it will also be a big benefit for risky assets.
Trump announced that he would accept Lightning Network payments for campaign donations, because Lightning Network payments require the creation and receipt of checks, that is, the amount must be agreed upon by the payee and the payer, so once this channel is opened, it is likely to meet the needs of offline payments.

On May 31, the Bitcoin ETF had a total net inflow of US$49 million, 728 coins, BlackRock bought, Grayscale sold, and the overall inflow was still inflow.
NOT-TON. The names are all very artistic. The NOT of the TON ecosystem ignited the entire weekend. NOT has completed a 6-fold increase from the bottom to now, in just 6 days, and the transaction volume of the entire network is second only to the big cake and the second cake. NOT includes multiple tracks such as TON ecology, MEME, and chain games, and it is also the most popular concept recently. The subsequent narrative of TON ecology should continue to be powerful. After all, it was hyped up in this wave. With the popularity and the trend, there may be a possibility of competing with SOL in the future. But the opportunity of native tokens is definitely not that big, after all, the market value is too large.
For the chain game track, there are still not many ALPHA projects. The hype of funds has driven it, but whether it can be sustainable and one or two leading or innovative projects is the key. I think WEB3 chain games are still a simple and crude plate.
Binance will delist $OMG, $WAVES, $WNXM, $XEM, all of which are old guys, and they were all glorious at one time. I don’t know why they will be delisted together this time. These tokens are not too related. It can be seen that after being delisted by BN, these tokens have fallen to varying degrees. It can be seen how much impact the listing on Binance has on the token price.
 
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Market Interpretation
Bitcoin has started to move. After digesting the instantaneous ups and downs of PCE on Friday, it has risen again today. From the technical point of view, it has not fallen below the rising trend line of the daily line. The weekly line of Bitcoin has begun to improve, and the monthly line has not broken the trend, so the market in June can be expected.
If nothing unexpected happens, Bitcoin should be listed on the US stock market this month, so stay tuned
The cottage is currently all following NOT. Some bottom chain games and new coins have begun to climb. It should be no problem to find some relatively good fundamentals to follow and eat short-term. Maybe the chain game season driven by NOT will trigger a rotation of the cottage season.
Today's Bitcoin Panic Greed Index: 73 (Greed)
 
 
  
  
 
 

Daily Coin:
The Ethereum spot ETF has been approved by the SEC. As we said yesterday, ETH has not been identified as a security! But the S-1 document still needs time for approval, which means that the listing time will be delayed, and it may be delayed for a long time. As for the impact, we will talk about it in detail later.
 
 
The net inflow of Bitcoin ETF on May 23 was 19 million US dollars, 283 coins, and the inflow was slowing down, and there was no large outflow.
 
   As for the possible performance after listing, now that it has been determined that the S-1 document is approved later, there may be a problem of the order of listing, which is very different from the spot ETF of Bitcoin at that time. At that time, Bitcoin was listed together, because there was a problem of Grayscale switching from ETHE to ETF. Grayscale held 2.93 million ETH. If it really sold like GBTC at that time, the market would not be easy to accept.
Today, I studied it carefully again. Since Grayscale applied for a mini Ethereum trust fund, which is a spin-off of ETHE, it roughly means that retail investors can buy and redeem with a smaller amount. Perhaps this change was made to reduce the selling pressure after listing, but because Grayscale needs to pass the S-3 document for approval, which is different from the S-1 of other institutions. So the conclusion is that Grayscale is likely not to be listed with other fund management institutions, but may be postponed. If this is the case, then the selling pressure at the beginning of the listing may not exist, and there will only be inflows at the beginning. However, these are all speculations, and everything depends on how the SEC operates.
    As for the inflow of Ethereum ETF, it is obviously not as good as Bitcoin, this is certain, and with the inability of holding institutions to pledge ETH to obtain additional income, it is likely to reduce investors' investment interest in Ethereum spot ETFs again. After all, the additional annualized 4% income is quite attractive.

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Market interpretation
The good news of ETF has landed, and the second cake fell first. A violent pin inserted 7 points in 5 minutes, which killed all the leveraged positions. Even if it is not listed, it has become a selling reality. The good news has turned into bad news. Many whales also started selling yesterday, but the bad news is only temporary. The long-term good news is certain, because after all, there is an inflow of new funds, so holding positions is still the main theme. It depends on when it will be listed.
Bitcoin has become a trend follower these days, and it has almost come back. It has topped 72,000 for the fourth time and has not passed it. It should be considered a very bad trend. Just consider it a waste of holding Bitcoin this week. The election and interest rate cuts can affect the market in the future.
There is no need to mention the copycats. Basically, they went up and down the same way. This week was a waste. I originally said that I would sell some copycats that I bought at 413 to reduce my position when Bitcoin reached 70,000, but I did not achieve unity of knowledge and action, because many performances were not very good, so I continued to hold the position.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
 
 
 $ETH
 
 
 

Daily Coin:
The Ethereum spot ETF has been approved by the SEC. As we said yesterday, ETH has not been identified as a security! But the S-1 document still needs time for approval, which means that the listing time will be delayed, and it may be delayed for a long time. As for the impact, we will talk about it in detail later.
 
 
The net inflow of Bitcoin ETF on May 23 was 19 million US dollars, 283 coins, and the inflow was slowing down, and there was no large outflow.
 
   As for the possible performance after listing, now that it has been determined that the S-1 document is approved later, there may be a problem of the order of listing, which is very different from the spot ETF of Bitcoin at that time. At that time, Bitcoin was listed together, because there was a problem of Grayscale switching from ETHE to ETF. Grayscale held 2.93 million ETH. If it really sold like GBTC at that time, the market would not be easy to accept.
Today, I studied it carefully again. Since Grayscale applied for a mini Ethereum trust fund, which is a spin-off of ETHE, it roughly means that retail investors can buy and redeem with a smaller amount. Perhaps this change was made to reduce the selling pressure after listing, but because Grayscale needs to pass the S-3 document for approval, which is different from the S-1 of other institutions. So the conclusion is that Grayscale is likely not to be listed with other fund management institutions, but may be postponed. If this is the case, then the selling pressure at the beginning of the listing may not exist, and there will only be inflows at the beginning. However, these are all speculations, and everything depends on how the SEC operates.
    As for the inflow of Ethereum ETF, it is obviously not as good as Bitcoin, this is certain, and with the inability of holding institutions to pledge ETH to obtain additional income, it is likely to reduce investors' investment interest in Ethereum spot ETFs again. After all, the additional annualized 4% income is quite attractive.

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Market interpretation
The good news of ETF has landed, and the second cake fell first. A violent pin inserted 7 points in 5 minutes, which killed all the leveraged positions. Even if it is not listed, it has become a selling reality. The good news has turned into bad news. Many whales also started selling yesterday, but the bad news is only temporary. The long-term good news is certain, because after all, there is an inflow of new funds, so holding positions is still the main theme. It depends on when it will be listed.
Bitcoin has become a trend follower these days, and it has almost come back. It has topped 72,000 for the fourth time and has not passed it. It should be considered a very bad trend. Just consider it a waste of holding Bitcoin this week. The election and interest rate cuts can affect the market in the future.
There is no need to mention the copycats. Basically, they went up and down the same way. This week was a waste. I originally said that I would sell some copycats that I bought at 413 to reduce my position when Bitcoin reached 70,000, but I did not achieve unity of knowledge and action, because many performances were not very good, so I continued to hold the position.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
 
 
 $ETH
 
 
 

Daily coin magazine:
The ETF holding data has not been updated today, but judging from US dollar statistics, the inflow of 27 yuan should not be small, probably more than 500 million. It’s close to 10,000 coins. Let's wait and see tomorrow
But in fact, we still can’t look at ETFs like Huidu did before, because Huidu is Pixiu. He can’t sell coins, only shares. At that time, GBTC did not have much impact on the BTC market, but ETFs are different. ETFs can It can be redeemed at any time. I don’t think that ETF will always be in a state of net inflow. Although it is not enough to buy, when the funds reach a certain time, the funds will still choose to take profits. Just see when.
The probability of an interest rate cut in the United States in March is basically zero. In March, the current interest rate will remain unchanged. The fastest interest rate cut should only occur in May-June.
Yesterday Apple decided to cancel the decade-long development of new energy vehicles and turn to the generative AI department, which means giving up the involution of new energy vehicles. The efforts spent over the years have been in vain, but Apple executives What we can see is that the field of artificial intelligence may have a more promising future than new energy vehicles, so there should be no doubt that AI is the forefront of the future technology wave. Then in the more cutting-edge field of blockchain + AI, it should be the main line that funds are seeking and running through the market.
Do you still remember the stage in December last year when inscriptions were flying all over the sky? Nowadays, if you get involved in AI, you will take off. Any project that wants to do AI will take off. Today’s takeoff is AR. In fact, AR has been performing well some time ago, but it has just released a test network and plans to launch a main network for AI storage this year. As a result, prices skyrocketed. This should be the result whenever a project announces that it will build AI in the future, so chasing higher may not be a bad thing. After all, this is a bull market.
Regarding the speculation about the follow-up copycat sector, I think it may be in two sectors, one is the domestic sector, and the other is the sports sector. I will not go into details about the specific reasons.
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Market interpretation
Yesterday, someone asked in which quarter the pie will reach a new high (over 69,000). Today I will give a prediction. Few people say the time, which is a bit jumpy. But in fact, it is still logical. According to the time node of the interest rate cut, Before the interest rate cut, there may be a dip in U.S. stocks. After that dip, U.S. stocks will continue to rise, driving ETFs and the market, and it is very likely that there will be a breakthrough at the beginning of the third quarter. Of course, this refers to an effective breakthrough.
It was said yesterday that it will continue to rise. Today it has reached 58,000+, and it is very likely that there will still be 59,000. The supply should come, just wait and see. After recently changing to the "must watch" in the afternoon, I found that it is still much more accurate. Because there is more time to collect information and think.
The two cakes continue to be linked, but the exchange rate is really miserable and has plummeted all the way. The Cancun upgrade has been scheduled for March 13. Since this is not expected to be speculated, it should not fall after it is implemented, so another supplementary increase is likely to be after the implementation. It's about time, so my expectation is mid-to-late March.
Today’s panic and greed index: 82 (extremely greedy)! ! !
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Daily coin magazine:
Bitcoin once again hit a new high for the year. The price instantly exceeded 57,000 US dollars and then fell back. When the price rose, it gave me the motivation to work. Today, I directly announced the data for February 26. This institution is also full of motivation.
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In fact, if we look at the data, yesterday's net inflow was not very large, and the two major institutions, BlackRock and Fidelity, accounted for the majority. However, the total trading volume of ETFs is very large, almost approaching the trading volume on the first day of launch, exceeding the trading volume during the Spring Festival.
Today, Bitcoin is on Weibo’s hot search again. If it rises too much, people will see it. Do you still remember the search index last time? If it is on the hot search now, people around you will come and ask you. When you can't buy it, you can responsibly say that this wave is about to reach its peak, but it doesn't seem to be that exaggerated now. I don't know what the situation is around you now, so I can talk about it.
As soon as the main line was launched, the AI ​​sector was directly sucked. WLD dropped from 9.2 to 7.5 yesterday, a drop of more than 20%. The leader of the AI ​​sector in the currency circle is now down, and other followers will surely follow suit. The main reason is from the WLD Foundation. It may be necessary to suppress the current artificially high price, and it is possible to increase distribution according to the situation. This situation is rare. I have not heard that the project party itself thinks that the price is high to suppress it. Judging from this information, the WLD Foundation’s chips should be It is very limited, and most of it is in the hands of market makers. It is very uncomfortable to see the market makers making great profits while all the chips in their hands are locked up, and thus a conflict of interest arises. Stand up and do something yourself.
Yesterday someone asked when the copycat season will come? Today the MEME coin is making a comeback. In fact, we are already in the "copycat" season, aren't we? From AI to old DEFI to oil refining to today's MEME, basically most sectors are rotating. However, what is different from the past is that it is not the general rise of sectors, but the leader leading some followers to rise. The market at each stage will There are different trends, so following the market trends is the most important thing.
Looking at another picture, the funding rate of the entire network has reached a very scary bottom. Especially in the morning, the contract premium of many currencies exceeded 0.5%, and the funding rate of the pie was almost 0.1%, even if the short position is completely wiped out, this situation rarely occurs, so there is still a greater risk for short-term contract long positions.
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Market interpretation
A higher position has arrived, and with this acceleration, the market has experienced a top divergence at the daily level. However, this divergence is not obvious and can be easily eliminated through sideways trading. The 57,000 B AN spot price emerged from Judging from the numbers, I think this wave is not over yet. It is more likely that supply will begin again at 58,000+ or ​​59,000+. At present, it is just a short-term deviation caused by cleaning up the corpses of short positions and repairing emotional prices. Judging from the larger weekly level, it should not be peaking soon, but more like the middle of a main rise, so there are risks in short-term pursuit of highs and ultra-short leverage positions. Just take a long-term view, but you must always pay attention to the "out of the circle" problem mentioned earlier. If it really occurs, it will not be good.
Let the two cakes continue to link up. I saw 3500 before and now it is less than 10 points. It went up with a shiver. But my personal opinion is that it has not been easy in the past two days. It should have been in mid-to-late March.
Both meat-eating and empty-headed people can come to the comment area to express their opinions (no one is losing money, right? Those who are losing money, stop coming)
Today’s panic and greed index: 79 (greed) is about to be extremely greedy

Daily coin magazine:
Good Monday, everyone. The Lantern Festival on the 15th day of the first lunar month has passed, and everyone should be back to work. The data will be updated as usual. The date is February 23, Eastern Time, so the data on Monday will generally have to wait until Wednesday. will come out. Let's all get used to it first
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Here are some on-chain data to share with you. It is a very exciting thing that is about to come, that is, the "copycat season" should be coming soon.
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This indicator is the so-called "alternative" currency indicator other than the big pie and the stable currency. This indicator was reactivated on February 4.
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The second table shows that usually in a bull market cycle, the capital inflow of the second pie often lags behind that of the big pie, while altcoins lag even further behind the second pie. This is the rule of the last round, that is, the rotation of funds, and now this A trend is being replicated.
Combined with what I wrote in the "must read" on February 20 and February 22 last week, the AI ​​sector should be followed by "refining". Many friends also gave feedback immediately. After a weekend of simple deliberation, in Today, the "refining" sector is in full swing, with basically new and old ones breaking out at the same time. It should still be dominated by the B AN series, because judging from the new releases in the past few issues, it is obvious that the gamefi sector is being hyped. The leader today should be DAR ALICE. However, based on the past few days, PIXEL’s new currency should have increased more on average this round. I really hope that friends who are watching every day can eat this piece of meat. However, the chain gaming sector is easy to be popular in waves, and it may only be a short period of two or three days, so a short one is probably enough. There is no need to stick to it for a long time. What can really make the cycle should be the concept overlay of AI + chain games. This may be the main line throughout the copycat season, or AI + "X" is the main line throughout the cycle.
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Let’s talk about last Friday’s UNIswap. This may be good news for the old leek, because recently many people have been asking about the old DEFI. I found that most people are still holding on to the old coins and gnawing hard. This time they gnawed the right coins. UNI, the old DEFI leader, released a governance proposal to empower tokens last Friday. As soon as the proposal came out, the price increased by 50%. The proposal means roughly
1. The fees of the protocol must be distributed proportionally to holders of pledge and delegated voting rights, 2. And governance control parameters are allowed, that is, which pools need to pay, and the size of the fees. This is equivalent to spreading money. In the past, it all belonged to you, but now you can get rebates, or it has become a golden shovel like BNB. This empowerment is still very powerful, and it has also led a lot of old DEFI to follow, but the second The next day, news broke that the UNI team was taking advantage of the price increase to ship goods. I was about to rush forward, but was pushed back by this news, and the other followers also retreated. So what will happen in the end? Everything depends on the results of the final proposal voting. The voting will start on March 8. I think the probability of passing will be very high, because UNI lacks a token empowerment, and such a good project cannot be wasted on just one empowerment. , so the probability of continuing to rise is relatively higher. As long as the old "guys" can change their token models through governance, whether it is empowerment or reducing inflation, they are developing in a good direction. Only these old guys deserve the meaning of living. There are some old guys who are not enterprising. Guys, I still say the same thing, if you speculate on the new but not on the old, you are considered a good old "guy". It may not be able to outperform the new one. ——————————————Dividing line——————————————Market interpretation Last Friday, the pie finally held its position at 50500. You can start from The data shows that Grayscale has basically stopped selling, and the outflow has only 3 digits left, while the inflow from other companies is still relatively strong, so a support is formed here at 50500. As long as this position is not broken in the future, it should It can be considered that the bullish trend is still there, which means that a higher position can still be seen. Erpai had a good time at the weekend, but didn't UNI and a group of old DEFI bring Erpai up? It may be, but judging from the above on-chain data, it is now moving according to the wheel of history, that is, the copycat season after the two-piece supplementary increase is about to come. There is no need to mention chain games anymore. We saw this ambush last week, and we mentioned it twice. Give it a thumbs up, family members! Today’s panic and greed index: 72 (greedy)

Daily coin magazine:
After looking at the comment area, I still need to read more charts, so I will forward the charts to everyone every day. I originally planned to make one myself, but others have already done a good job, so I won’t bother with it. I updated it for two days in a row yesterday. is out and has been updated to February 22nd. Let me explain to you. What we focus on is the daily net increment of all ETFs in the penultimate row. Red is the net outflow and black is the net inflow. You can also pay attention to the last column on the right, which is the total holdings of all ETFs. This way Intuitively, we can see the increase and decrease ratio between Grayscale and those companies. When Grayscale stops shipping one day, it will be the inflow of real money. Now there may still be at least 30-40% changing hands.
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Yesterday, B AN Laboratory and A16Z respectively invested in EIGENLAYER, the leader of the LSK track. One is a direct investment in eigenlayer, and the other is an investment in the ecological project Renzo. It seems that this restake track is the unicorn that capital will favor this year. From the perspective of eigenlayer alone, it is not a simple liquidity re-staking matryoshka doll. What it really solves is the problem of the consensus layer. Through re-staking, it upgrades the cost of some verification nodes that may do evil. At the same time, DAPP can By borrowing the security of the main network, the consensus layer becomes much more stable, which means it strengthens decentralization and security. But there are pros and cons. As there is an additional layer of trust, the risk of staking and being hacked may be greater. Of course, there is a drawback here: the higher the blocks are stacked, the more fragile the bottom layer will become, and it may fall over if it shakes.
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Yesterday, the Stark project team modified the unlocking schedule for early contributors. The revised plan reduced the amount of unlocking by nearly 1.5 billion this year. This substantial benefit directly pushed the price up. With the airdrop army, all the things that should be smashed have been smashed. , should be supported by the Cancun upgrade and consolidate at the bottom for a period of time, the price will rise accordingly.
Regarding the economic model, yesterday CHZ also announced changes to the economic model. The core is to reduce inflation. This year, many old projects have begun to modify their own token models, especially some that have a large circulation after full unlocking and were not designed to be destroyed. The mechanism causes inflation to be too fast but there is a supply limit, so don’t worry too much. As long as the project team is still alive, they will find ways to change it, and those who can make changes should want to make the project better, especially It’s the token price. INJ is currently a project that is about to inflate to the maximum supply after being fully unlocked. The pledge rate is still maintained at 50%, and the current pledge inflation is still greater than destruction. Let’s see if he will make something this year. Changes in economic models.
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Market interpretation
There has been a slight problem recently with the correlation between the trend of the market and the incremental growth of ETFs. The net outflow on the 21st led to a slight decline, but the net inflow on the 22nd was not small, and the US stock market also reversed its trend yesterday. However, the overall trend of the pie is still declining, which shows that the supply comes from other places. On-chain data shows that with the recent rise in the pie, more than 700,000 pieces of the pie have been transferred by miners to their XXX platform. Maybe the supply comes from them. It is normal for short-term adjustments to occur, but the cap cannot be too high. The short-term support is still around 50,500. It would actually be better if it can go back to 49,000, which will be more conducive to reaching new highs in the future.
The unsatisfactory Erpie eventually lost to the Shanghai Composite Index. The Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3,000 points today, and Erpie fell. Let’s not talk about it. I am disappointed. Let’s wait for the big brother to take care of us. The old, weak, sick and disabled need help.
Today’s panic and greed index: 76 (greed)
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Daily coin magazine:
The complete ETF data has finally been updated today. Still read the end of the article. Would you rather see the daily increment or the total amount? Or if you prefer to see charts or text, you can leave a message in the comment area, and I will update it according to the majority of people's opinions.
The short-term adjustment of the U.S. stock market may have ended yesterday. It suddenly reversed in a V-shape at the end of the trading day. Everyone was waiting to see Nvidia's financial report. As a result, the fourth quarter was very good, with an after-hours increase of more than 10%, which can be said to be the hype of AI technology stocks. It should have started in the US stock market, so today the AI ​​sector in the currency market is going crazy again.
Let’s talk about WLD first. I just said yesterday that 8U is not the end, and we have passed it today. At present, WLD’s FDV (fully diluted market value) has exceeded 80 billion US dollars. Currently, an iris meter and an APP are comparable to the market value of OPENAI. Okay, this is the speed of the currency circle.
Let’s talk about another “RNDR” that we mentioned on January 31 (you can go back and see). At that time, the price was only about 4.6, and now it is 7.5. Although it is not as fast as WLD, it is still very stable. It is also close to the concept of SORA. It mainly makes graphics rendering solutions, and the tokens are empowering. , integrated with AI. This coin has increased more than 20 times since the bottom, with a market value of nearly 3 billion U.S. dollars and a record high price of 8.7. It may also break through to a new record high before Bitcoin.
Let’s talk about the entire AI sector. Even if it breaks out of the currency circle, it should be the future trend of the entire technology industry. CHATGPT5 may also come out this year, so there is still a lot of room for imagination in the AI ​​sector. Therefore, there will be some currencies with overlapping concepts at present or in the future that can be given priority, such as AI+chain games, AI+DEPIN (infrastructure), AI+video, etc.
The "Golden Shovel" BNB has once again exerted its power and has been renewed. How many new projects are waiting to be launched? According to statistics, the average mining return rate in the 8 periods since December 13 to the present is 2.1%, free of charge. 16%,
Shovel's own growth rate has now exceeded 50%. It is really a combination of eating and taking. The income has exceeded that of holding a big pie or two pieces. If the position is rolled over, it should be even more. The new releases in this issue are still in the chain gaming sector. Judging from the new releases in these two issues, we should have already understood the sectors that should be speculated in the future.
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Market interpretation
Yesterday, I touched the position of 50500, and the divergence was solved. As we said, when the divergence was solved, it started to continue upward. There should be nothing wrong with it. I should be more accurate in the short term these days. Yes, is it related to the change of release time and name? A larger level is still optimistic that there will be another real (not pin) new high in the rise.
The counterattack of Erbing continues. It is indeed very strong to hold on like this. Recently, Sun Ge seems to have increased his holdings a lot. Sun Ge must be under the guidance of an expert, so Er Biang should still continue to rise. I also said it yesterday 3000 is just a short-term round-number adjustment, and it should not be difficult for the exchange rate to make up for the increase above 0.06, so 3500 can be seen.
If RUNE and RNDR are keeping up, they should all be eating meat. Congratulations first. It can also be seen that I basically only share the layout with everyone when the relative adjustment is at a low level and the certainty is relatively high. It is not brainless. If you are monotypic, please like it if you eat meat.
Today’s panic and greed index: 74 (greed)
As of February 20 (US time) ETF holdings data: total net inflow is 2,580, total ETF holdings are 728,665, Grayscale has reduced its holdings by 2,652 on that day, and its total holdings have been reduced by 168,815

Daily coin magazine:
The US stock market finally opened yesterday, but only Fidelity has updated the data, so the data at the end of today's article still cannot be updated. It is still on February 16th, and the data on the 20th needs to wait until tomorrow. Please be patient
Yesterday, the U.S. stock market opened lower. There was a rebound during the session, but the rebound was average and ended negative. As mentioned yesterday, the U.S. stock market is adjusting its structure in the short term, and it should not be adjusted in place yet, so don't worry too much.
Yesterday, this STARK was amazing. When B AN was launched, it was as high as 4U. However, the airdrop army arrived soon, and the price was cut in half in 2 hours. The reasonable range of 1-1.5 I mentioned yesterday should still be valid. You can continue to refer to it. There will be opportunities later in this project.
The boss of MIRCO said that he has no reason or plan to sell Bitcoin, because the door to capital entry has just opened, and the market value is only 1 trillion. It is completely based on the butt that determines the head. However, his investment has already gained 41 It has reached 100 million U.S. dollars. As old leeks, especially those who have experienced two rounds of bulls and bears, you should also have faith. Holding Bitcoin should still be the best investment asset in 2024.
Let me share an interesting picture. I don’t know if Chinese people don’t use Baidu much now, or if WeChat search and short video platforms have more credibility, but this can show that when the hot searches were popular in the first two bull markets, it was time to fade away. It’s time to make a big splash, or that’s my “out of the circle or perish” theory. We haven't reached that moment yet, and it should be very early.
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Yesterday, the total trading volume of the nine Bitcoin spot ETFs was approximately US$2 billion, a record high. VanEck's HODL, WisdomTree's BTCW and Bitwise's BITB also broke their respective single-day trading records. This trading volume has already It is comparable to the trading volume of the top 20 US stocks.
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Market interpretation
Yesterday, a false breakthrough came. It was indeed a new high of 4H level. Once it was inserted, it was immediately knocked down. Today, the long-short ratio has directly changed to the short-term dominance. I have been emphasizing in the past few days that this will happen. Really It's okay if it happens. Judging from the current structure, this part of the divergence should be resolved and it will continue to move upward. The point of resolving the divergence is around 50,500.
Auntie really can make some jokes every day. Today, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2950. The big ether didn't beat it. However, I think 3000 points is just a resistance at the round number mark. The real big resistance should be at 3500-4000. It will only appear. The Cancun mainnet launch time should be finally set on March 13. There is still time for hype, so let’s add the E prefix. There should be a chance to see more than 3500
Today’s panic and greed index: 78 (greed)
As of February 16 (US time) ETF holdings data: total net inflow 6802 (incomplete), total ETF holdings 726483 (incomplete)

Today’s lunch:
It can be seen from the data last Friday that the trading volume of ETFs has indeed stabilized, and there is no longer the freshness at the beginning. Grayscale has now issued 110,000 units, and BlackRock and Fidelity are still The two largest management institutions have a fund management scale of about 2 billion U.S. dollars. If they want to take over all of Grayscale, it is estimated that they will have to at least double it. Judging from the current growth rate, at least It will take more than 3 weeks to pick it up. Therefore, the real funds have not come in yet, and the stock is currently changing hands.
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In the past two days over the weekend, under the leadership of SATS, Inscription had another rebound. Although it seems that SATS has the highest rebound, ORDI is actually the bigger brother. Because it has fallen less, SATS has already exceeded 50% from its high point. ORDI It hasn’t been cut in half yet. I really don’t want to mention B AN’s WEB3 wallet anymore. The story of “crying wolf” is no longer convincing. It’s all the community and KOL who are trying to justify themselves. Large Inscriptions are supported by the liquidity of big exchanges. They can repeatedly rely on selling high and buying low to reduce costs. You may still be able to look forward to the future through trading and holding positions, but Small Inscriptions may give you the last chance to escape. Take a look at your own hands. Are there any messy inscriptions inside?
Jupiter, the Solana ecological aggregator, has become very popular recently. It has continuously issued MEME, first with mock, and then with WEN. After the project is completed, it claims that it will issue JUP on January 31st. It is difficult not to think that it is for its own tokens. Attract funds. Jupiter is currently a commonly used AMM protocol in the Solana ecosystem. If the tokens are successfully issued and listed on major exchanges, it may become popular. In fact, the main thing here is to talk about the follow-up of SOLANA. The current market value is almost catching up with BNB. Will the real third largest public chain catch up with its second brother in the next bull market? If the second brother doesn't want to make progress, it is not impossible to catch up in this currency circle where he is swimming against the current.
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Market interpretation
It was said last Friday that it is more likely to become a "bottom". There was a rebound on Friday. This can be regarded as an effective rebound. The current position is exactly where it can continue to rebound, that is, this 42500 In the past, the probability of continuing to rebound would increase, and it could not be called a reversal until it broke through 43,500.The real market trend still depends on the movements of US stocks at night after they open. Is there a possibility of a direct reversal to new highs? From a purely market structure point of view, I think the time is not enough, that is, after eight consecutive positives on the weekly chart, it needs to step back on the middle track at least once before it can start a larger level of rise. I don’t think the real opportunity to buy the dip has come yet.
I don’t want to mention Erpie. Recently, some small coins that were strong in the early stage are still performing well, such as SOL INJ AVAX TIA SUI, etc. It can be seen that the L1 public chain is still the main line logic and is an indispensable layout object from all aspects.
Today’s fear and greed index: 55 (neutral)
As of January 25 (US time) ETF position data: the total net outflow was 1,434, and Grayscale had an outflow of 9,932 on the same day.

Today’s lunch:
After warning of the risks last Friday, Big Pie experienced the largest physical decline this year or in the past three months at night, with an intraday drop of more than 7%. The market has fully explained everything. Grayscale GBTC’s capital management market value It is still the largest, with currently 26.7 billion US dollars. Most other ETFs have more than 200 million, and some have only tens of millions or even millions. Grayscale still has a lot of redemption and smashing supply, and obviously His management fee is determined to force you to redeem it. The 1.5% management fee is more than five times that of other institutions. After so many years of management, I can finally get out. Now that the showdown is coming, I just quit playing. No one can stop me. Therefore, it is still an unbalanced and unstable market, and it is best to wait and see at the moment.
A research institution claims that the mining computing power of the pie will increase by 104% in 2023, and it is estimated that the average production cost of each pie will be US$37,856 after the halving. Unless the price of the pie can remain above US$40,000 for a long time, otherwise The profitability of most miners is very limited, so it is very important for miners to ship at high prices in exchange for electricity before the halving. This is the strategy of miners, so when there is full supply, it depends on what the market will do. There won’t be such a huge demand that we can handle.
INJ has a batch of unlocked tokens on the 17th of this week, about 3.67 million, worth 140 million US dollars. This is the last time INJ has unlocked a large amount. After unlocking, it will become a fully circulating token. According to data, there are currently 47 million tokens being pledged. , about 50% of the circulation has been pledged, and the APR is about 15%, and then the closed loop is repurchased and destroyed through the transaction fees of the agreement. This is also a strong logic for INJ to go crazy. Let’s take a look at INJ after it is fully unlocked.
How will the market perform?
Let me talk about another interesting thing. A large number of prediction orders have appeared in the options market at the end of this year. The largest call is currently 100,000 dollars, and the highest call is 200,000 dollars. In fact, if you have strong expectations for the market to go bullish, bet on it. Options are a very safe operation. If you go right, you will make a big profit, but if you go wrong, you will suffer a small loss.
In terms of market conditions, CME jumped short and opened lower this morning, bringing down the price of the pie, leaving a small gap at 42300-43300. It can be seen that the market reversed immediately after testing downward. I think there should be a greater chance of a rebound this week to fill this gap.Currently, CME futures still have a relatively large gap that has not been filled, at 39300-40300. Therefore, I think there is a high probability that this gap in the market outlook will be filled. That is to say, I think the big pie with the prefix 3 will definitely be seen. As for whether we can buy the bottom at this position, we have to see what happens next. If this position is If the market goes down, this position may be a short-term support, but if it rebounds and then becomes a double top and then comes back, the bulls may be held captive for a longer time.
Erbian is still going strong. The Cancun upgrade will log into the test network on January 17 this week. The next day after logging in, the Ethereum team will hold a core meeting to discuss the next step of the upgrade. Therefore, the results of the test will still affect the time when the mainnet goes online, so please wait patiently.
Today’s fear and greed index: 52 (neutral)

Today’s lunch:
Bitcoin hit a new high for the year today. The reason is actually that the expected probability that ETF will be approved has increased. Yesterday, various institutions began to update their S-1 documents. The purpose is to price ETF fees. Various institutions began to set prices. War, currently according to official information the lowest should be 0.24%. This shows that institutions are working hard to raise funds, and official documents show that BlackRock and Vaneck have injected seed capital into its ETF, which is 10 million and 72.5 million respectively.
Various signs still indicate that the probability of ETF passing should be very high. People have even poured money into it, but I see many friends saying that they will definitely reject it and will not pass. I don’t know what logic these friends are motivated by, whether they simply want to be conspicuous, or whether Lao Liek’s conspiracy theory thinking is too serious. Let me borrow the words of yesterday’s madman to encourage us: An empty cup is the long-term solution for this industry. Only by forgetting the past and adapting to the new era can we have a chance to succeed again.
Let’s talk about COSMOS again. Don’t understand the COSMOS ecosystem as ATOM. ATOM is its native token, but COSMOS is not a single blockchain. It can be understood that it is a blockchain underlying platform. Users only need to use its framework or With its consensus mechanism, you can create your own projects and your own blockchain, and the ecosystem does not specify that native tokens must be used to run it. COSMOS has three sharp blades. If you have one of them, you can basically be said to be a member of the ecosystem. ATOM only serves as node pledge verification and governance.
The first is COSMOS SDK, a modular development tool that can greatly reduce development costs and enable developers to release their products more quickly and easily.
The second is IBC, inter-chain communication technology. This sharp blade connects all projects in the COSMOS ecosystem. It is also the most useful one. It is equivalent to a standard. Cross-chain has always been a headache for the blockchain. COSMOS Effectively solving this problem, of course, is within its own ecological specifications. For example, Apple's mobile phones, tablets, and notebooks can transmit information very easily and efficiently because of the strong support at the bottom of the IOS system. This is IBC the meaning of.
The third is the TENDERMINT consensus mechanism, which is generally a POS mechanism model with some slight optimizations for the purpose of more efficient verification nodes. The efficiency is also better than Ethereum, although it may not be as good as SOL or some L2.
Knowing the above three points, you will know why the COSMOS ecosystem is so powerful. So many of the projects that have skyrocketed in this bull market are centered around the COSMOS ecosystem. It can be said that the popularity has completely surpassed the Ethereum ecosystem. I will list a few. , let’s see if this is the case 1.INJ 2.RUNE 3.TIA 4.SEI 5.OSMO 6.NTRN 7.KUJI
Most of these projects only started to rise at the beginning of this bull market (about October). In just two months, these projects have at least 5 times the income. This shows how popular the COSMOS ecosystem is in this round. The above-mentioned Most of the projects are L1 within the COSMOS ecosystem, and there are also some DEFI projects. Will the speculation continue in the future? I think some L1s, in particular, can wait for bargain hunting opportunities and look forward to the next round of market speculation.
In terms of market conditions, as for the big pie, as mentioned above, we have to wait for the results in the past two days. If it is still expected to increase by 10%+ after passing, then judging from the current price, we may be able to see the beginning of 5 in the short term after passing. of pie. The open interest of the contract has increased again in the past two days. It is difficult to say whether there will be another burst of contracts, but as I said before, it is like an invincible Xiaoqiang. This time it seems to be nothing. It is rare to fight in life. Woolen cloth. For spot prices, everything still comes from your own expectations and holding costs. If you don’t get on the bus or get off in advance, just wait. Objectively speaking, starting from 48,000 to 53,000 is a point where you can gradually reduce your position on the left in the long run. .
Today’s panic and greed index: 76 (greed)

Today’s lunch:
The market trends over the past two days over the weekend show that the risk aversion of funds has been very strong, because this week has reached the most critical point for the ETF to be launched. On January 10, the SEC must make a final decision on ARK’s application. , then the conclusion of buying expectations and selling reality mentioned before is basically established, that is, the closer to the landing node, the more speculation funds will start to retreat, because the expectations of these funds are that no matter whether they pass or not, as long as they land, it will be negative . It can also be seen that the entire market is currently only holding on for big money, and all small coins have basically dropped more than 20% from their highs, and some have even dropped by more than 50%. Now it seems that the market outlook may have the following situations:
1. The SEC announced that it has passed, so the most likely ones to pass are BlackRock and ARK. If they passed, in fact, many other institutions can also be considered to have passed. However, it should be noted that it will take some time before the approval is passed and the actual ETF is listed for trading. It will take about two weeks at the fastest and two months at the slowest.
2. If the SEC rejects it, then the ARK family should be rejected, because the others can be postponed until March. During this period, ARK can still apply again. If it passes, then this 2WEEK-2MONTH vacuum period may be a shock period or an adjustment period (tends to adjust). If you refuse, then just like what was said last Friday, the 12% drop will be thrown directly on your face.

In fact, it has only been these two days. There is no need to panic, because there will definitely be another decline before the real bull market starts. Look at this on-chain data chart. There will be one before the two halvings in 2016 and 2020. There is a large amount of supply. I don’t need to explain the reason for it. If you think about it, you will know that it is the supply from miners. The realization before the halving is basically not possible because the block reward has been reduced and the cost will inevitably increase. First, the realization of the future Electricity costs, and secondly, possible expenses such as hardware upgrades to the mining machine.

In terms of market conditions, the big pie is still supported by news. No one can predict the outcome, but the probability of passing is still greater than rejecting. This is my personal expectation. I also said it last Friday. If you want to eat this, it will accelerate. , just like the invincible Xiaoqiang, go up with the iron head.Of course this is not suitable for everyone, it is just a rat's nest in anticipation of passing. There is no problem with holding spot positions and other results, but judging from the current momentum, if the big pie passes and accelerates, there is a question mark as to whether the copycat will follow or return to the previous peak, but no matter how it passes, , we should also reduce our positions. People have asked a lot about the COSMOS ecosystem. In fact, the biggest increase in the ecosystem is our big demon INJ. INJ’s performance this round is still very strong, and we can still look forward to the future. If you are buying the bottom, you must not forget this demon. After all, it has entered a new era. The three demons failed to hold on at 5 this time, but the rebound is acceptable and you can continue to hold positions. Today’s panic and greed index: 71 (greed) The decline of Shanzhai has not come down, which shows that the expectations for the big pie are still very strong.

Today’s lunch:
Yesterday, when all media opinions were almost one-sided in favor of the implementation and approval of ETF in January, a report published by a matrixport analyst reversely triggered panic, causing the market to rapidly fall from 45,000 points to around 40,000 points before rebounding. The entire network was liquidated with 600 million U.S. dollars, and almost all were bullish. Let’s first take a look at what the report says
The report said that the SEC would reject the approval of ETF in January and listed several reasons. I will not go into details here. However, the report also said that it may approve it in the second quarter, and it also said a lot about being wary of the risks of long-selling. It was also predicted that the price of Bitcoin would drop by 20% if rejected. Then the company executive (Wujihan) came out to smooth things over again.
When I looked at this, it looked exactly like the time when a media published false news that ETFs were being approved. It was exactly the same. First of all, I won’t comment on whether it’s a “rat barn” or not. Why don’t you just use some gossip and the like to talk about it? Even if you have gossip, why are you the only one who has it? Why don’t other media speak out? Second, the current market price is indeed dominated by news and expected speculation. About 12% of the price expectations have now been included. That is to say, if it really comes to fruition, whether it is rejected or approved, it will probably That’s the expected fluctuation of around $5,000.
It should be said here that all gossip is unreliable. Before the official and the parties (applicant) have accurate information, they can be regarded as rat warehouses. This wave is really harmful to contract users. At present, this news dominates In the market, spot goods are more stable.
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Yesterday, a TRB-style dog market control operation appeared again, that is, PEOPLE. After the market dropped sharply, PEOPLE instantly increased by 7 times, and then fell back by 70%. This cannot help but make people think that it is the same as TRB. It is rare for a banker to control the market so obviously and control it twice in a row, so the risks are definitely getting bigger and bigger. You still need to pay attention to the fishtail market.
In terms of the big pie, contract positions have been reduced a lot, which is indeed more conducive to the rise of the market outlook, but it is difficult to judge whether it will directly V-reverse like the previous times, but this time we can slightly predict the price expectations after the implementation. Assuming that starting from 43,000 now, if the market fluctuates in the next few days, BlackRock’s node will arrive on January 10 next week. If passed, the acceleration may reach 48,000. If not, it may It fell below 40,000.If it continues to be postponed, then keep the status quo.
Yesterday, in addition to ENS and PEOPLE, which were called by V God, there were several currencies that remained strong during the decline. Basically, they all reversed directly, which shows that funds are paying attention in the short term. I have summarized a few currencies with good structures, respectively. It is SEI PENDLE SC SSV. You can also pay more attention in the short term in the future.
Today’s panic and greed index: 68 (greed)
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Today’s lunch:
The much-anticipated Erbian has finally moved, and finally, it has made up for the increase. In the past few days, there have been many friends who are concerned about Erbing. The answer I gave is that Er Ge’s status is definitely unshakable. The belief in ETH should not disappear, but some old ecology will suffer from the gains. It is not as good as the new ecology or the big pie ecology which is basically a foregone conclusion. Even if there is a supplementary increase, it may be short-lived. Of course, there are reasons for the supplementary increase. The first is the expectation of DENCUN (Cancun) upgrade, and the other is that Buterin released three methods to simplify the current POS mechanism yesterday, which also increased the belief of pledgers. However, the current activity on the chain is much worse than that in 2021. It can be seen from the burning data that more than 10,000 coins were burned almost every day in 2021. From 2022 to now, the average is only three or four thousand. The amount of ETHS inscriptions destroyed in those days was slightly larger. Decentralization is the first element of blockchain. If you think decentralization is too expensive, and you don’t like the second one, who else can you trust?
Speaking of expensive, the boss of Weice has never thought that big cakes are expensive. He spent another 600 million to buy 14,000 cakes and put them in his wallet. He bought them when he had money. It almost became a gray-scale Pixiu, but it was really his own. Money, Huidu is other people's money, people have to admire this guy's belief. On the other hand, Sister ARK's fund has been selling COINBASE stocks and GBTC recently. The reason is very simple: it has made money. Coinbase’s stock price has doubled since October this year, and the price of GBTC’s secondary market has also doubled nearly five times. Buying low and selling high is the nature of people. I have to admire this female stock goddess. She has been constantly buying lows and then highs. sell off.
Recently, many coins that have been lying at the bottom have started to improve. I think this is undoubtedly a fish tail market. Generally, only when the fish tail is reached, will anyone pay attention to these old and scummy coins, and the places where funds can go are already very limited. This round is going to rise to some extent anyway, but meat with lots of thorns is really hard to swallow, so just don’t chase the rise. Don't be itchy looking at him, no one knows which old guy is the real doomsday chariot.
In terms of market conditions, the pie directly exceeded 43,000 yesterday, which is an effective reversal. The current market is indeed very strong. It can be seen that basically every decline is a V-shaped reversal, not even a U-shaped one, and the same is true for a second bottom. It only happened once on Double 12, but my view on the last acceleration will not change. As long as it accelerates to a new high, it is very likely that the acceleration will peak. Let’s see when it comes.
The second hard bank coin TRB reached a new high yesterday. No one should have any doubts about the two big monster coins INJ and TRB. Now I think there is another big hard bank that may also become a monster. Brothers, please give it a thumbs up. This Weibo post has over 200 likes, and the three demons will be announced tomorrow
Today’s panic and greed index: 73 (greed)
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Today’s lunch:
U.S. stocks were rising before and after the market yesterday, which shows that everyone has begun to plan for the interest rate cut cycle, and the interest rate cut cycle is increasingly expected by capital. The probability of interest rate cuts starting in March next year is now as high as 70%. , so the market has already reported that funds have begun to deploy expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the trend of the market yesterday has completely separated from the US stock market. It began to fall at 1 o'clock in the afternoon and continued to fall at the opening of the US market in the evening. This shows that funds are beginning to run away in advance in anticipation of the possible launch of ETFs on January 10. The closer the time is, the more risks will indeed intensify. Yesterday we also reminded that there are many thorns in the fish tail. Now let’s review the risks we have seen several times before. In fact, it was mentioned a long time ago that the first supply appeared at 44488. At this position, traders on the left obviously started to ship. , he doesn’t want to wait for the second and third time to accelerate, so this position is still a very cost-effective selling point. I think the second acceleration will be the wave of 40555-43000+, so in summary, the implementation of ETF is very likely to be the last acceleration, and the one most likely to pass is BlackRock. Then the decline you want will definitely come, but the time and magnitude cannot be determined now.
The new CEO of B AN has done enough. Mining three times a month. Can you bear this? He has locked up the big BNB holders. These three minings plus the recent increase in BNB have been at least 10% in the past two weeks. It can bring more than 30% profit to the position holders. It is said that there are three things that a new official should do when he takes office. These three things are indeed the most prosperous firewood that is burned at the most correct time.
I also saw a funny thing yesterday, saying that the big-pie ETF passed, and then came the two-pie ETF, and then SOL. The mood of retail investors has become so FOMO. Sorry, SOL has been recognized as a security by the SEC, and it will not pass. Therefore, I think there is not much room for SOL to rise in the short term. But its ecological value will still be picked up again in the bull market.
The second-tier network METIS of the legendary V God Old Mother platform has tripled in the past week, which has also attracted a lot of attention. Its ecology has also skyrocketed in a few days. Although the short-term risks are very high, it has begun to catch people's attention. , we can continue to pay attention to whether there is an opportunity for a callback.Currently, there are several currencies in the ecosystem that can only be purchased on the chain, such as NETT HUM, etc.
In terms of the market, yesterday's decline should have hit the 4H-level upward trend line and provided an effective support. Judging from today's market, if today's rebound cannot break through 43,000, it will continue to be a downward trend in the short term. It is still two-digit in the short term. In this case, firstly, if there is another second test at the 4H level to confirm the support rebound, then the bottom here will be very solid; secondly, if it falls directly below, it is bound to look for 40,000 points again. So the point of the game is near yesterday's bottom.
Let’s talk about two cakes. Why was I so beaten before? Yesterday, some friends even asked if SOL would exceed two cakes. In fact, this should have something to do with the liquidation of FTX. The value of the FTX liquidation account is 250 million US dollars. Almost all of the ETH has been liquidated, and it is liquidated first, so it has resisted selling pressure all the way. However, a large number of SOLs in the liquidation list have been pledged by market makers and have not been completely liquidated yet. SOL has been pulled so hard that as long as the debtors are repaid with the same amount of US dollars from liquidation, then the remaining profits are market making. I don’t know when they will throw it away, but we still have to be careful with this knife on our head.
Today’s panic and greed index: 73 (greed)
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Today’s lunch:
Today I will share some data first. This year, Bitcoin mining’s total annual revenue (transaction fees and mining rewards) is approximately $9.849 billion. The total revenue in November reached US$1.158 billion. It can be said that this year is really a welfare year for miners. In line with the transaction boom triggered by Inscription, the proportion of mining revenue during the year also showed two peaks. The first peak was in May, when the daily average handling fee accounted for 12.74%. The second peak was from November to December, when the daily average handling fee accounted for 11.80% and 19.26% respectively. What can be expected is that if the mining reward is halved next year and the BTC ecological craze caused by Inscription continues, then next year may be a year of acceleration for the mining industry. At the same time, from a cost perspective, the mining industry is facing a situation where difficulty and computing power continue to rise this year. Compared with last year, the mining difficulty has been increased more times this year and the magnitude of the increase is larger. The current mining difficulty of the entire network is approximately 67.31T, an increase of 90.35% from the beginning of the year. Also growing simultaneously is the daily average computing power of the entire network, which is currently about 562.1 EH/s, an increase of 106.27% from the beginning of the year. What is different from last year is that the computing power this year has increased significantly. Moreover, the increase in computing power this year is less than the increase in currency prices, which is also based on the excess returns brought by the inscription craze.
To sum up, after the mining reward is halved next year, if the price of the pie starts to go into a bull market due to the interest rate cut cycle, then the computing power will inevitably increase accordingly, and the difficulty of mining will also increase. Therefore, maintaining the development of the ecosystem and the popularity of Inscription transactions will not increase. Retreating is what miners must do next year, so the underlying logic is clearer. The road to "Inscription" is far from over.
Yesterday, I received the news that B AN wallet might launch Inscription. Inscription rose sharply across the board, led by the eldest brother ORDI and the second brother SATS. Even though B AN officially denied the news last night, it did not lead to the decline of Inscription. So according to the above Regarding the logic of mining, do you know who might be responsible for creating momentum and making the market? There should be more market making based on news like this in the future. As long as the cost is good enough and you hold the leading position, there will always be opportunities.
There is also Solana, which I have to say now. This year, it has increased more than 10 times from the bottom. It has got rid of the control and haze of afro. The ecological hype and the wealth creation effect of MEME coins and inscriptions have caused a surge in the demand for SOL, driving this trend. Tiao, who was originally the second brother of the public chain, has returned to his throne. Therefore, no matter what new things appear in the currency circle in the future, the hype that cannot be avoided is "public chain".When a market is booming, infrastructure is also one of the tracks that must be laid out.
There is not much to say about the market, because the United States is still resting. Today, the U.S. stock market opens, and funds will gradually become active, so the trend after the opening tonight will be more important. When you get up early tomorrow, you will know what Western investors have. We'll see when the time comes. However, as the expected time of ETF approaches, we will definitely eat less and less fish. The closer we get to the tail of the fish, the more thorns there will be. If we don’t want to get pricked, we need to be more careful and careful when eating meat in the near future. Don’t pull out the thorns due to stuck thorns. The medical expenses are more expensive than the meat, so the gain outweighs the loss.
Today’s panic and greed index: 71 (greed)

Today’s lunch:
Yesterday something happened to the inscription on the INJ chain. The official news came out that the wallet for the minting fee charged by the inscription casting team had not been certified. First of all, the fee was already outrageous, and it was even more outrageous that the wallet had not been certified. In other words, it was clear. I want to cut it, which reminds me of ICO in 2017. The project team just found some code white paper, raised some funds, got it, and then called for a takeover. It seems that now you can just build a website, find a popular chain, leave a backdoor, and cut it off. It is much simpler than it was back then, because it is very, very simple for many new public chains to deploy smart contracts on the chain. Therefore, you must carefully screen them in the future, or in other words, try not to touch other inscriptions on the chain except BRC20.
Several public chains mentioned yesterday have not yet received inscriptions. Today, several public chains that have not yet received inscriptions are performing well. It should be that consensus expectations are relatively high. However, something went wrong with CFX yesterday. CFX already has inscriptions. Recently, this coin It’s been ten years since I lapped in one day, and I can’t keep up with the speed. Therefore, the expectations of CFX should be gone. At present, NEAR seems to have the strongest expectations and also has the largest increase in comparison. However, after INJ's accident, we should be more cautious, and our expectations may be disappointed.
Inscription is over, BTC pictures (NFT) are here again, the pace is really too fast, it can be said that the bull market atmosphere is full, Inscription’s profits are too much, find a community to use some profits to support others, As soon as you pull it, people will follow it, and you will make money if you follow it, and then it will become the "frog" and "crocodile" that it is now, and it is being speculated again. Crocodile toothy is a small picture based on the atomicals protocol MINT. At the time of MINT, it cost about 100 dollars a picture. Well, now the floor price is 2,000. Don’t play with this small picture. In fact, the project team has changed a way to take away the big pie in your hand. In the end, it will be like the NFT in 21 years, except for most of the originators. It's all down to zero, there's no other way to go.
Yesterday, the core team of ETHW announced that it was disbanded. Unfortunately, this hard fork has been running for more than a year. The price of ETHW has dropped from 13 to 1, and now it has risen to 2. In the end, it was declared a failure. The core team said that it would follow up with decentralized governance and long-term maintenance. As soon as the word maintenance came out, it could basically be said to be goodbye. There is no point in running a blockchain without applications and content.In fact, you can see the current results from the fork back then. Professional players and amateur players are ultimately different.
Let’s get back to the market situation. Since yesterday, most of COINBASE’s BTC premium index has been negative. This can be seen from the decline last night, which shows that the popularity of the United States has begun to gradually recede. In addition, the Western double digits are about to It’s New Year’s Day, and it should be safe for the time being. You can watch Eastern Force continue to perform, but after New Year’s Day, the SEC’s approval node will soon come. Will ETFs be launched? Will ETFs really be “selling reality” after they are launched? , we will know in two weeks, and now it is stuck in the neck, a middle position that can go up or down, and the short-term bullish trend has not changed yet. But in terms of time, the risk should be getting closer and closer. The last acceleration we have been talking about is likely to be when the news of ETF comes out.
Today’s panic and greed index: 74 (greed)

Today’s lunch:
Last week should have been the last craziness of Inscription. There have been "callbacks" of varying degrees since the weekend, especially the ones that have risen the fastest. I looked at BRC20's Inscription long, mice, and BTCs, which should be the top losers. The relatively popular inscriptions, such as several leading inscriptions RATS and SATS, fortunately have not experienced a systematic collapse. Even if they fall now, other people's profits may still be several times or more than ten times, so don't take the principal to relay others' profits. Profit, re-entry at this time is already very cost-effective. So stay sensible and become a catcher whenever your hands are itchy.
The decline in other chains such as SOLS is even greater. Now basically all public chains want to get on the Inscription train. It is easy to implement technically, the threshold is low, and it contributes a lot to the transaction activity on the chain. So this is what every public chain project team hopes to see. For public chains that have smart contracts other than the BTC chain, such as SOL, Avalanche, and BSC, doing inscriptions is really equivalent to taking off your pants and farting. , leaving its own smart contracts and standard protocols unused, and insisting on imitating the inscription protocol. After all the hype, these public chain inscriptions will end up being nothing but chicken feathers. Think about NFTs and zoos back then. They were actually the same. Is there a familiar flavor?
Let’s talk about the market situation next. We said last Friday that if the profits of Inscriptions are used to realize the process, the process is to sell Inscriptions, sell big cakes, and withdraw the coins. Moreover, most of the people speculating on Inscriptions should come from the Chinese community, especially the uncles and aunts who make money. If you have money, you will not believe in holding the pie. Liquidation is the king, so the decline of Inscription will inevitably lead to the decline of the pie. Let’s see if this fall will make up for the CME gap below 40,000. I think the chance is quite good, but now I’m not sure where to buy the bottom. It mainly depends on whether the inscription is a crash or a cooling-off period. , because on the contrary, I want to join the process of buying inscriptions, which also includes recharging, buying pie, and buying inscriptions. Objective analysis shows that the vicinity of 40,000 is definitely a strong support level. As for what will happen if it falls below, it is impossible to predict now.
The new public chain Inscription should still have room for speculation. Yesterday's TIA chain failed, but today's AVAX chain is up. The leading new Inscription ASC20 on AVAX has more than 50,000 AVAV holding addresses. If you want to chase hot spots, just To be able to keep up, as long as it is new, you can try to make new ones at low cost or take the first bite of crabs. Stay rational and don't go to heavy warehouses to take orders with FOMO.
Today’s panic and greed index: 65 (greed)