12.10 Cryptocurrency Market: A Collective Surge Before the Decision, Interest Rate Cut Expectations Dominate Fluctuations
Today, the cryptocurrency market welcomed a strong rebound, with BTC breaking through the $94,000 mark in the early hours, rising over 4% in 24 hours, currently oscillating around $92,000; ETH led the mainstream coins with an increase of nearly 7%, stabilizing above $3,300, and the fundamentals supporting Fusaka's upgrade have become prominent.
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization has reached $3.17 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $116 billion, and BTC dominance maintained at 57%. The core driving force comes from the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (with nearly a 90% probability of a 25BP cut), and over $1.36 billion has flowed into cryptocurrency ETFs in December, with institutional funds continuously entering the market.
Positive news continues to emerge from the regulatory front, with simplified compliance for bank cryptocurrency services and Binance obtaining a global license, leading to an ongoing optimization of the industry environment. However, caution is needed regarding fluctuations before the decision is finalized, with resistance for BTC at $94,000-$95,000 and ETH resistance at $3,350-$3,400.
Operational Advice: Reduce leverage and hold light positions before the Federal Reserve decision (December 11, 03:00), focusing on the guidance for the interest rate cut path in 2026 mentioned in the policy statement, and avoid blindly chasing highs. #加密市场反弹
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The Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% at the monetary policy meeting on December 19, 2025. This policy shift is mainly based on the sustained inflation exceeding targets, the need to stabilize the yen exchange rate, and the price spiral pressure formed by wage growth.
Policy Expectations: The market expects a probability of over 90% for the rate hike on December 19, with the policy rate rising to 0.75%, marking the end of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy that has lasted for over a decade.
Economic Background: In the third quarter of 2025, GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 2.3%, but the nominal price deflator index was revised up to 3.4%, indicating persistent inflation pressure.
In October, nominal wages increased by 2.6% year-on-year, reaching a three-month high, and the spring labor negotiations may push for wage increases of over 5%, solidifying the inflation base.
Policy Intent: The Bank of Japan is signaling a long-term hawkish stance by raising the neutral interest rate range (1%-2.5%), but emphasizes a "constructive ambiguity" strategy to maintain flexibility.
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