浩永说趋势

Friends who just entered the circle must be feeling restless lately: positions are glowing green, the K-line is heading downwards, and U.S. stocks are also weakening in sync. Is the crypto market about to repeat the 'black swan'? As an analyst who has been deeply involved in the industry for 8 years, let me directly point out the key issue: this wave of decline is not due to problems with the project's fundamentals, but rather a liquidity crisis triggered by the U.S. government's 'shutdown'. The rush to cut losses is the real pitfall!
Many people only see the market decline but do not understand the underlying funding logic: The two parties in the U.S. are deadlocked, and the government has been shut down for 37 days, tying the historical record. In the absence of funds, the Treasury can only 'siphon' from the market to save itself, having drawn nearly $700 billion over the past two months. It's like a large portion of the market's funding pool has suddenly been drained, with banks' available funds sharply reduced, leading to a direct depletion of liquidity in the entire market — the Federal Reserve's bank reserves have fallen to the lowest level since 2021, indicating a severe tightening of funds.

Every day in the background, someone asks me: "Bro, you've been in the crypto circle for 8 years and saved up 20 million, what are the 'magical techniques' for selecting projects?" Today, I want to speak honestly — my skills all come from lessons learned from falling into the pit of 'losing so much I wanted to delete the software,' none of it was based on luck.
When I first entered the market, I was also a 'high-flying soldier,' seeing the screen filled with red and my eyes sparkling, my fingers moved faster than my brain, charging in with a full position waiting for 'young models from the club.' What was the result? Nine out of ten times chasing highs led to being buried, and the worst time my principal was directly halved. Lying in bed at night staring at my phone screen, I felt like a fool paying for lessons. Looking back now, every impulsive trade was 'tuition' paid to the market, and this tuition was so expensive that I remember it for a lifetime.

The notification sound at 2 AM is more painful than a plummeting K-line—fans sent a screenshot: 274000 in debt, three credit cards maxed out, staring at a screen full of green bars, hands shaking to the point of typos, asking me 'is there still a chance to turn things around?'
I didn't say chicken soup, I just replied with a harsh truth: money can be earned back after a loss, but once a person collapses, there's really no saving them. If you want to turn things around, first throw that 'gambler's mentality' into the trash and rely on real methods to break the deadlock. This is not preaching; it's the blood and tears experience I've summarized from hundreds of retail investors who turned their losses around.
Step one: first 'cut the position to save your life', don't confront the market head-on.

Last autumn, at 3 AM, WeChat popped up a message with a crying tone: "Bro, 300,000 U is gone, just over 10,000 left, I want to clear my position and leave."
The message was from my cryptocurrency friend Lao Yang, who had been with me for two years. Not long ago, he was sharing screenshots in the group of "full position contracts hitting new highs," and now he took a big tumble. I didn't comfort him and directly said, "Clearing your position now means admitting defeat. Stop for a week, export your trading records from the past six months for me — do you dare?"
A week later, the review sheet he sent was simply a template for "retail trader behavior award": 70% of the trades were bought chasing the gain leaderboard, 28% of the losing trades held on for more than 3 days, and there were 5 instances of full positions in a single day with the direction reversed twice. I pointed to the sheet and asked him, "Are you trading or just giving money to the market?"

Have you ever felt the urge to smash your keyboard when watching your account balance continuously decline? I have—after clearing my account for the sixth time, there was less than five digits left in liquid funds on the screen, and my fingers trembled so much that I entered the login password wrong three times. It felt like the market was pressing me to the ground and rubbing me repeatedly, even my breath carried the taste of 'losing too much.'
Until a senior in the circle threw me a line, 'Don't just endure, learn to mine for information gold,' I followed it with a mentality of treating a dead horse as a living one. I didn't expect that with just 3,000 in liquid funds, it would multiply over 60 times in less than 90 days. Today, I'm breaking down this 'turning losses into profits' route for you, especially the last step, which 90% of people can't endure, but is precisely the key to reaping the rewards.

You might slap your thigh when I say this—among the average 'K-line masters' and 'informed individuals' in the crypto space, I, as a 'Buddhist player' who doesn't look at MACD or chase community rumors, managed to use three sets of 'stupid rules that break through the floor' to turn 3000U into 24000U.
It's not that I have extraordinary talent, but rather that I have seen through the 'survival truth' of this circle: 90% of people lose because they 'want to take shortcuts', while the real money-making secret is hidden in 'the stubborn effort that goes against human nature'.
My three sets of 'stupid rules': no guessing, no gambling, just eating with the trend.
When I first entered the crypto space, I also followed the trend and learned some 'advanced operations'—staring at the RSI to look for overbought and oversold conditions, chasing new projects based on so-called 'insider information', and ended up losing 40% in half a month. Later, I simply decided to 'break the jar and let it spill', threw away all indicator software, and stubbornly focused on the two words 'trend', which surprisingly led me to a breakthrough:

Have you ever felt this kind of frustration of 'eating flies': your market analysis is so good that you admire yourself, the K-line trend moves in the expected direction just as drawn, yet your account balance feels like a leaking bucket—getting emptier and emptier?
Don't blame bad luck, and don't resent the 'main force targeting'; I dare say 90% of people stumble because they haven't seen through the 'hidden rules game' of leveraged trading. As a veteran who has been in this market for 5 years, the pitfalls I fell into back then still make me slap my thigh when I think about them now.
From a floating profit of 5000 to being liquidated: the day I was taught by the 'long needle' how to be a person

Old fans who have just finished watching the market understand — I never shout empty words. The 'golden pit' in the ETH 1-hour chart is the only opportunity to buy low with eyes closed in the past 3 days. If you miss this wave, next week you can only slap your thigh and watch others make 300 points!
First, let’s hit the technical aspect hard: The 1-hour BOLL band shows that the current price of 3117 slightly breaks below the lower band (3131), but this kind of 'false breakdown' is a classic method of the main force washing the market. The KDJ indicator has K value at 27.84 and J value at 23.98, both plunging into the oversold area. After such levels of overselling in the past week, ETH's average rebound amplitude reached 4.2%; looking at the MACD, the green bars have continuously decreased for 3 periods, and the fast line shows signs of crossing the slow line — short-term rebound momentum is already fully charged.

家人们谁懂啊！做加密交易的我见过太多魔幻场面：有人追着“百倍币”喊单冲进去，结果当天被埋在山顶吃泡面；有人看到绿柱就慌得割肉，转头发现是主力洗盘的假动作。明明盯着K线熬了无数夜，钱包却比脸还干净——其实不是你不够努力，是没摸透市场的“潜台词”！
下面这9句口诀，是我在加密圈摸爬滚打5年，亏掉2个多月工资才悟出来的真谛。记牢了，下次看盘时能多一分清醒，少一分上头：
第一句：横盘磨底敢下手，竖拉爆涨咱扭头
加密市场最爱搞“横盘震荡”这套，有时候磨一周甚至一个月，不少人耐不住寂寞就割肉换仓了。但你想啊，横盘其实是多空在“掰手腕”，一旦打破平衡，方向往往很明确。这时候回踩关键支撑位，就是低吸的好机会；可要是突然像打了鸡血似的竖直冲高，那多半是情绪盘在狂欢，里面全是想让你接盘的“镰刀”，咱坚决不做那个冤大头。
第二句：全网喊多要警惕，悄悄离场才明智
当你刷社群、看动态，全是“这币要起飞”“目标价翻三倍”的声音时，就得捏紧口袋了。我上次在某个币种热度冲到顶点时，看到连平时不碰加密的朋友都在问怎么买，当天就果断止盈。果不其然，第二天直接低开套住一大波人。记住，加密市场的安全出口，从来都藏在人声鼎沸之前。
第三句：小阳慢涨最健康，大阳连拉要站岗
如果一个币种每天涨2-5个点，沿着5日线慢慢往上爬，这是主力在稳步推升，行情能走得远；但要是突然爆出3根以上大阳线，甚至单日涨超20%，你就得警惕了——这不是行情要加速，是顶部信号在“眨眼睛”。我见过太多兄弟在大阳线时追进去，结果当天就吃个天地板，哭都没地方哭。
第四句：不挖黄金坑，坚决不上车
加密货币里没有“一路飙升”的神话，哪怕是再牛的币种，暴拉之后也得回调洗盘。那些没经过回踩、没换过手的上涨，就像建在沙子上的房子，一推就倒。去年有个新币上线就涨了5倍，好多人急着冲，结果没几天就跌回发行价，就是因为没等那个“黄金坑”。必须等它回踩关键位置确认支撑，咱们再上车，心里才踏实。
第五句：急跌恐慌是洗盘，缓跌放量要逃亡
看到币价突然跳水，别第一时间割肉！如果是无量急跌，大概率是主力在“吓散户”，把不坚定的筹码洗出去，后面往往会反弹；但要是放量缓跌，每天跌一点，成交量还在放大，这才是真危险——说明主力在悄悄出货，等筹码出得差不多了，就是断崖式下跌。这种时候，跑慢一步都可能被套牢。
第六句：破线就走别犹豫，留得本金才有戏
每个人都要有自己的“生命线”，比如5日线、20日线或者布林带中轨。一旦币价跌破这条线，不管你多看好它，都先离场观望。我之前持有一个币种，跌破20日线时总觉得会反弹，结果越套越深，最后亏了40%才割肉。后来才明白，破线就意味着行情已经“变心”了，别跟它谈恋爱，先保住本金，才有机会翻身。
第七句：跟着大周期走，小波动当放狗
很多人天天盯着15分钟、1小时线，被细碎的波动搞得心态爆炸。其实日线、周线才是“掌舵的”，大周期决定了趋势方向。如果周线是上升趋势，哪怕日线跌几天，也是回调机会；要是周线是下降趋势，日线涨得再欢，也是反弹陷阱。跟着大周期操作，就像站在山顶看路，不容易走歪。
第八句：上攻没量是诱多，多看少动准没错
币价往上冲，成交量却没跟上，这就是典型的“假动作”。就像一个人举着拳头喊要打你，结果胳膊没力气，根本伤不到人。量能是行情的“氧气”，没有量能支撑的上涨，全是主力画的“饼”，目的就是让你接盘。遇到这种情况，不管涨得多好看，都别进场，多看少动就是赢。
第九句：缩量见底是机会，放量起涨才反转
底部从来不是靠喊出来的，是“熬”出来的。当币价缩量创新低，社群里没人说话，连喊单的都消失了，这时候机会就悄悄来了；但别急着抄底，必须等它放量上行，突破前期压力位，这才是真的反转信号。去年比特币跌到16000的时候，多少人喊“抄底”，结果抄在半山腰，就是因为没等放量起涨那一步。
其实加密交易没那么复杂，关键是要反人性——别人贪婪时你警惕，别人恐慌时你冷静。这些口诀不是让你一夜暴富，而是帮你少走弯路，在这个市场里活得更久。
最后说句掏心窝的：交易就像谈恋爱，别太上头，也别太卑微。该止盈时不贪，该止损时不拖，保持平常心，钱包自然会给你惊喜～觉得有用的兄弟，点个关注不迷路，下次咱们接着扒那些加密市场的“反人性”操作，让你拿着筹码睡踏实觉！
#加密市场观察 $ETH
$BTC

Have you ever had this experience? Staring at the candlestick screen until three in the morning, feeling like 'this time it's definitely safe,' only to see it turn into a waterfall the moment you go all in, then immediately cut losses and see it rebound—finally looking at your account balance, doubting whether you are trading contracts or just 'sending warmth' to the market?
I have been in crypto contracts for 7 years, starting at 27 with three years of saved salary, and now my account is comfortably in the eight figures. I have seen too many people go crazy placing orders based on 'feelings,' and I have received countless questions from beginners asking 'why do I always lose?' To be honest, making money in contracts really doesn't rely on luck; it relies on a set of 'rules so foolish that no one wants to learn them' but executing them leads to profit—each one is a painful lesson I learned from losing sleep in my early days.

Last week I saw someone in the community shout 'Leverage = liquidation accelerator', I almost sprayed my coffee on the keyboard - brother, you are not losing because of leverage, it's your brainless operation!
Having been in the crypto space for 5 years, I've seen 'sweeping monks' consistently profit with 5x leverage for half a year, and I've also seen 'reckless guys' lose all their principal in three days with 2x leverage. To put it simply, leverage is like a kitchen knife: chefs use it to chop and cook, while maniacs swing it around randomly. Can you blame the kitchen knife for being too dangerous?
When the market moves, spot prices can rise by 8 points at most, but leveraged players who choose the right direction can directly surge by 30 points considering the margin effect - this isn't mysticism, it's elementary school multiplication. During that market wave last November, I used 10x leverage to catch a rebound in Ethereum, and within a week I maximized my quarterly returns. It's not that I was lucky, it's that I dared to 'reasonably amplify' when the trend was clear instead of gambling blindly.

Every day the backend is bombarded with questions: "Ah K, after struggling in the crypto circle to save up 1 million, should I just convert it all to stablecoins and lie flat to earn interest?" Every time I want to roll my eyes elegantly—bro, if money could be managed this way, you would eventually watch others double their earnings while you just slap your thigh!
I'm really not trying to pour cold water on this, but the core of big capital has never been about 'lying flat to earn interest', but rather about using structured allocation to make money 'move'. Many people earn slowly, and the fundamental problem is not the lack of opportunities, but that the funds are always 'idle and on standby'—it seems ready to rush at any moment, but when a real opportunity arises, the position structure is as chaotic as a pot of porridge, leaving you with no qualifications to even reach out.

Last night, I organized a 'vintage gaming' session. I intended to complain about the recent 'confusing operations' in the industry, but I was stunned by a senior who has been immersed in the crypto circle for eight years with one sentence - 'Do you think they're playing a “left-right hand game”? You just don't understand that they're building a Web3 'Alipay-level' ecosystem!'
This conversation started after a few rounds of drinks. When discussing the highly focused Aster layout in the industry recently, I casually mentioned, 'Isn't this just a routine operation of changing the shell?' The senior directly put the wine glass down on the table: 'Your perspective is too narrow! Do you remember how Alibaba thrived back in the day? Why did Jack Ma insist on creating Alipay despite the pressure? At that time, how many people said 'e-commerce and payment are unrelated'? And what happened? Alipay became the 'super connector' of the Alibaba ecosystem, firmly binding users, merchants, and services together. That's the moat that can't be replicated.'

Having been in the cryptocurrency world for 8 years, I've seen too many 'geniuses' turn 100,000 into 10,000, and I've also seen one 'fool' roll 100,000 into 42,000,000. Recently, when I had morning tea with this senior, he pointed out the essence of the market with one sentence: '90% of the people here make decisions based on emotions; as long as you can control your hands, the market is an ATM machine that gives you money.' Today, I will break down his invaluable money-making logic for everyone, which is all practical and can help newbies avoid 3 years of detours.
1. Refuse the 'mosquito meat trap' and protect the 'capital lifeline'.
The senior often says: 'The most dangerous thing in the cryptocurrency world is not the big drops, but the temptation to make small profits.' I deeply resonate with this—how many people panic and take profits after making 3 points, only to watch the price rise by 50% afterward; others are too greedy, wanting to double their 20% gain, and when the market reverses, they go from floating profits to deep losses. Last year, a fan complained to me, saying that he made over 200 trades in a year, paid several tens of thousands in fees, and ended up losing money.

In 2018, when I rushed into the crypto market with a principal of 1 million, I always felt like the chosen one. While others chased trends, I did too; when others shouted 'buy the dip', I dove in faster than anyone else. As a result, after three years, my account shrank to only 230,000. At my worst, my wife threw my pillow into the guest room and said, 'This is not investing; you are just giving money to scammers.' During those days, watching the K-line turn green was blinding, and even my hand shook when I tried to smoke a cigarette.
But I am stubborn and unwilling to give in so easily. I locked myself in for three months, thoroughly reviewing all my trading records, and found that I had made all the 'beginner suicide mistakes': putting all my money into one token, holding on stubbornly when it dropped, waiting for a 'rebound', and buzzing around at the mention of 'hundredfold coins' like a fly to honey. I wrote these pitfalls on the first page of my notebook, drew a big cross, and with the remaining 200,000, re-entered the market in the fourth year—now? There are two more zeros behind the account number, breaking through 34 million.

I've seen too many friends entering the market with 1000-2000 USDT; that little money can make your palms sweat when held tightly—like a rookie in the trenches clutching the last few bullets, hoping to hit the boss for a comeback while also fearing being ground into the dirt by the market at any moment.
Today, let me speak some honest words from the heart: With this little capital, trying to survive in the crypto world relying on the red and green fluctuations of candlestick charts is pure nonsense. What really works is the 'survival hacks' I've summarized after stumbling countless times.
First move: Learn to 'admit defeat' and throw your dreams of getting rich into the trash can.
I've seen at least 200 retail investors who, upon entering the market, are mesmerized by those small coins shouting 'hundredfold potential.' Bro, wake up! A thousand USDT in this market isn't even worth a bubble; getting rich a hundred times isn't investing, it's taking your life savings to gamble in a casino—can you afford to bet?

At this time last year, I was still calculating 'how many bowls of instant noodles I could eat with 3,000 U.' This year, I can already laugh and say 'the K-line fluctuations are slower than my coffee cooling down'—that's right, this person who once lost so much during a small-cap coin correction that I wanted to delete the trading app, managed to grow my account to a seven-digit figure using a set of 'simple methods.' Today, I'm not talking about myths, just breaking down the pitfalls I've stepped into and the hard-earned insights I've gained. After all, the crypto world is full of stories, but what's lacking is a survival logic that can be copied.
In the middle of the market trend in 2023, I rushed into the market with 120,000 U, my mind filled with 'doubling down on the trend.' What happened? Clinging to the belief that 'this coin will definitely go back up,' I stubbornly held on, opened contracts based on feelings, and was still staring at the market looking for 'rebound signals' at three in the morning. In the end, I watched helplessly as my balance went from a five-digit number to a three-digit number. Looking back now, I realize that I was a typical 'emotional retail investor': mistaking luck for conviction, treating frequent trading as hard work, cursing the market for being heartless when I got liquidated, yet never asking myself 'do I really understand this industry?'

Have you ever seen a liquidation text message at 3 AM? The red 'Account has been forcibly liquidated' was like a slap in the face, pulling you back to reality while you held onto a few thousand in capital, thinking you could 'turn the tables against the wind.' As an experienced trader in the contract market for 5 years, I've seen too many people rush in with the fantasy of 'getting rich overnight,' only to lose their capital to the fluctuations in K-line, leaving them with nothing but their underwear—myself included.
Two years ago, on that deep night, I only had 15,000 left in my account. Staring at the fluctuating market on the screen, I irrationally opened a 40x leverage position. Watching the market soar into the red, my fingertips went numb, my heart raced so fast it could smash the keyboard, and my mind was filled with 'This could multiply tenfold.' What was the result? In less than 40 minutes, my account was directly halved, and the cold sweat in my palms soaked the keyboard into a map. That day I understood: high leverage is not some 'wealth creation artifact,' but clearly an 'invitation letter for liquidation' from the exchange.

Recently, when I opened the market software, the K-line of gold made my blood pressure fluctuate — this surge feels like riding a rocket, and every day there are brothers asking in the background, 'Should I jump in?' 'How high can it go?' But to be honest, the more the gold price surges, the more uneasy I feel; it’s not that I envy those who got in early, but the signals behind it are too familiar.
After ten years in crypto and macro analysis, I've long figured out a rule: every major bull market for gold is almost always a 'child born from crisis'; this is not alarmism, and we can understand it by looking at history.
The gold rush from 1971 to 1980 saw prices soar by 20 times, coinciding with the global financial crisis in 1974; the gold bull market that started in 2001 was even more intense, climbing steadily until 2011, with the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis acting like 'fuel' that pushed gold prices to historical peaks at the time. This is no coincidence; the property of gold as a 'safe-haven hard currency' is only fully activated when global capital is in a panic.

Last week I helped my mom check her account and found that she used the 'foolproof method' I taught her to trade cryptocurrencies, turning a principal of 30,000 into 48,000 in six months—without staying up late to monitor, without chasing any 'hundred times coins' hype, and she even only looked at the most basic line of the K-line chart.
I've seen too many fans with a principal of 100,000 being fooled by 'contract leverage' and 'insider information' down to just a few cents. Today, I want to share this 'foolproof method' that I've tested for 3 years: don't gamble on luck, don't speculate on market trends, just follow the most realistic signals of the market, suitable for all ordinary people who want to 'earn steadily'.
Step 1: Choose coins only focusing on the 'golden cross above the zero line', excluding 90% junk coins.