In August, a fan from Shanghai sent me a picture, and wow, I was totally shocked.
The unrealized profit and loss from long positions in ETH and SOL added up to over 1 million U!
The fan asked me if he should cut his losses. Cut losses? Seriously? If I really say to cut losses, would you be willing to?
Comforting him was useless. After looking at the candlestick chart, I told him to hold on, it would rise, and then I let him take profits at a high point, not only did he not lose money but also earned over 500,000 USD.
What a ridiculous entry point he got in, all at the highest point during the fluctuating rise. He’s a fool with too much money. I let him follow me, and he agreed.
I took him across the crypto world, especially during this period with investments in COAI, MYX, MMT, AIA, and many other hundred-fold coins. He made a fortune.
Now the total assets of one of his accounts have reached over 20 million USD, and he bought 30 BTC as real estate, with the rest continuing to operate with me.
The situation exceeded my expectations. This order took me a whole day yesterday. By the evening, I unexpectedly opened Binance and found that it suddenly surged, just at the highest point for profit-taking.
It's still okay; some brothers got off midway, which can’t be said to be regrettable. #加密市场反弹
How to put it? Well, it can be a small investment for a big return. My positioning on Luna has already ended, but based on Luna's historical increase, there is indeed a little bit of expectation.
Just a little bit of expectation, what do you all think? Is the probability of winning the lottery greater or the probability of Luna rising back to 1.5 greater?
In July, a brother from Heilongjiang contacted me in the middle of the night. When the voice call connected, I first heard him crying.
He said his experience in the crypto world over the past few years has been like a nightmare: he invested 800 yuan and released 300 BTC early on, then later LUNA crashed, his wife left, and he sold his house, leaving him with only 140,000 USDT. He said, “Brother, I have lost everything, I just want to turn things around.”
I told him: those lying on the ground shouldn’t think about flying. The more you think about turning things around, the faster you lose. So, let’s start over. Mainstream coins, step by step, don’t chase after rises and don’t act impulsively. When you have been poor, you learn to wait. In three months, he turned 140,000 USDT into 320,000. He said, the money grows slowly, but he can sleep now.
In October, the winds changed. I said: you’ve practiced enough, it’s time to act.
COAI, MYX, AIA, a few ambushes, steady, precise, and ruthless. The account jumped from 320,000 to 3.1 million dollars. He was stunned: “I’ve never seen so much money in my life.”
But I understand, the thorn in his heart is still there—LUNA.
“Do you dare to touch it again?”
“Both hate and fear.”
“Then go back, let it eat you, take back your capital and interest.”
At 0.08, sold at 0.16, earned 198,000 dollars.
Shorted at 0.16, withdrew at 0.106, earned another 243,000 dollars.
At 0.106, bought more, cleared at 0.17, made another 260,000 dollars.
After finishing three rounds, he was silent for a long time, and finally sent a message: **“This time, I truly feel secure.”**
The account stopped at 3.86 million dollars.
Later, he got married and sends money to his ex-wife and child every month. The past cannot be made up for, but the future can be walked with a straight back.
The crypto world is not a fairy tale; it shatters you and then lets you piece yourself back together. If you are also in the pit, remember the first thing he did right:
Don’t think about turning things around; first, learn to stand firm.
The road is still long, the wind is strong; only those who can stay steady can reach the end. #加密市场反弹
In the seventh year of joining the circle, I finally understand one thing: this market never eliminates fools.
Last year, a friend asked me if she could buy Ethereum, and I said she could give it a try. When it went up by half, she started to panic, asking me every day if she should sell. I casually said, "It's about time," and she immediately liquidated her position. As a result, ETH later doubled again. She never spoke in the group again.
Many people actually don't need answers; they just need a way out.
At the end of last year, a brother came to me with only 3500U in his wallet and a dense record of liquidations. He said if he lost again, he would be completely out. I set three rules for him: don't exceed one-fifth of your total position in a single trade, cut losses without hesitation, and must review the market every day after closing. He followed them. In two months, 3500U turned into 70,000U. During that time, we stayed up late every day watching the market, our eyes nearly glazing over from looking at on-chain data, and the account balance increased day by day.
But with more money, people tend to get carried away. He suddenly said he wanted to take trades with followers, using 20x leverage. A big bearish candle came down, and the account evaporated by 40%.
At three in the morning, he cried and asked me, "Did I mess up again?" I said, "There's no possibility in the market, only results." I told him to liquidate and take two days to calm down. Two hours later, he sent me a screenshot of a full liquidation.
Before deleting him, I only said one thing: "Money can be earned back slowly, but once discipline is lost, you will have nothing left. What you lose is not the market, but every excuse you make for yourself."
The harshest part of the market is that the vast majority of people are not really trading; they are using money to repeat their personality weaknesses. The ones who truly make money are not the smartest, but the ones who can best adhere to the rules.
If you find yourself constantly falling into the same pit, stop and ask yourself—are you really competing with the market, or are you competing with yourself? #加密市场反弹
I'm really annoyed by those people who get startled easily. After the new virtual currency policy from the thirteen departments came out, the group went into an uproar. Some say it's over, USDT is going to fail; others shout that Bitcoin is going to crash.
I think, what's the panic about?
First, let me mention my own trading habits—I don’t even touch the USDT trading chain, I directly do C2C for Bitcoin spot. Why? To avoid this situation. Looking back now, this approach might have actually been right. $LUNA
There’s an interesting logic here: If a large number of people really panic and sell USDT for fiat, where will the money go? It can't all go into the bank, right? Most likely, it will flow into hard currencies like Bitcoin, and then the price might just take off, $500,000 or $1,000,000 is not a dream. Policy shock? It might even become a booster.
Now, let’s look at the timeline. The policy was released on Sunday, and the market was stable as a rock that day; the drop on Monday was clearly due to Japan's interest rate hike, blaming the policy is too far-fetched. Also, if you read the document carefully, you’ll find that it mainly targets money laundering and illegal cross-border funding, not normal transactions by ordinary people. Just like a knife itself isn’t illegal, but using it to harm someone is illegal—USDT is the same.
Of course, saying I'm not worried is a lie. But there are always more solutions than difficulties. My strategy is to place a high sell order; if USDT really decouples in the short term, it’s actually a good opportunity to buy cheap. As long as Tether itself doesn’t blow up, the price will return sooner or later.
Ultimately, this type of policy is essentially about filling regulatory gaps, not about turning the table. Understand the boundaries of "illegal use" and "normal holding," don’t scare yourself, so you can survive in the market for the long haul.
I'm currently laying out the next hundredfold coin, let’s get on board together #加密市场观察
This round of pullback has forced many people out, but if you look at the recent signals——
American banks have given the green light, wealth advisors can provide clients with a maximum exposure of 4% in Bitcoin. Vanguard has also loosened its stance, allowing trading in Bitcoin ETFs. There are also reports that Trump has basically finalized Hassett to take over a key position at the Federal Reserve.
Let's do the math: even if traditional financial institutions only invest 0.25% of their funds to test the waters with $BTC, it could bring an incremental $70 billion within two years. Also, BlackRock transferred over 1,600 BTC last night, which is likely part of a portfolio adjustment.
What to do now? My thought is that holding BTC spot is still necessary. But don't overlook the risks—geopolitical tensions, a shift in Bank of Japan policy, and ETF inflows falling short of expectations; these black swans could cause the market to experience another sharp drop at any time.
Market volatility is the norm; the key is not to let short-term fluctuations disrupt your rhythm. Understand institutional movements, hold onto your chips, and don't let market sentiment lead you astray. #加密市场反弹
The two months of slow decline have made the market almost numb, and as a result, in the early hours of December 3, Bitcoin suddenly experienced a violent surge—from $84,000 directly to above $92,000, with an increase approaching 10%. Ethereum was even more vigorous, breaking through the $3,000 mark, with a daily increase of over 10%.
However, this rebound was not gentle; in 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $400 million, with 110,000 people directly kicked off the table. The most disastrous order occurred at a leading exchange, where a $13 million BTC contract instantly went to zero—this time, shorts were clearly educated.
This reversal actually had signs long ago. First, look at liquidity expectations: CME's FedWatch tool shows that the market's bet on a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10 surged from 35% to 89.2% within a week. The catalyst was the November PPI data, which was far below expectations, clearly easing inflationary pressures.
Although Trump's tariff policy may temporarily raise costs, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly hinted that they will still focus on a 'soft landing' before 2026 and will not easily turn hawkish. If there really is a rate cut this time, a weaker dollar combined with declining U.S. Treasury yields will likely push funds into risk assets like BTC.
More crucially, this could open the door for continuous rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026. Smart money has already begun to position ahead for 'rate cut trades'—based on on-chain fund flows and institutional holdings changes, this rebound is not a flash in the pan, but rather an advance guard of a new trend. #加密市场观察
区块链淼哥
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Tuesday Daytime Big Pie Two Pie Latest Ideas
Currently in a brief pullback repair cycle, the downward momentum has shown clear signs of exhaustion, and the characteristics of a temporary bottom are gradually emerging.
From a four-hour perspective, it has consistently maintained operation above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. Although it has tested the middle track's pressure multiple times, each pullback has been quickly absorbed, and the bears have never been able to break through this key support level. This fully indicates that the current pullback is merely a corrective adjustment on the way up, not a reversal; the bulls' foundation remains solid, and the subsequent rebound is set to launch.
Looking at the hourly level, the trend has quietly completed a W-bottom formation and is currently in the pressure pullback phase at the neck line of the formation. Combined with changes in volume, this pullback has not been accompanied by increased volume, representing a typical power accumulation adjustment. It is expected that after reaching the lower support level, a new round of strong bullish momentum will quickly commence.
Big Pie: 89500-90500 long, watch for 92000, 93000; Ethereum: 3050 - 3100 long, watch for 3200, 3260. #ETH走势分析
In the past few days, the analysis of the market has been quite accurate, giving a feeling of stepping on the left foot and right foot spiraling into the sky, haha!
In fact, there is logic behind this phenomenon—every market segment, regardless of rising or falling, is essentially a repeated game between support and resistance. When prices rise and pull back to support, they continue to surge; when they fall and rebound to resistance, they continue to drop. These patterns are not random but can be observed and learned. Why did it stop here? Why did it rise again? Why is there pressure here? I have been constantly asking these questions and learning the principles behind candlesticks, moving averages, and various indicators.
Honestly, I don't pay much attention to news. The original intention of trading is for comfort; if I have to keep an eye on news and information all day, I might as well just go to work. The meaning of trading lies in breaking through classes, so we must return to technology and discipline.
ETH daily observation:
The double bottom pattern has already been confirmed, and in the short term, the strategy is to buy on dips. Similar to BTC, as long as the daily 123 pattern has not emerged, the reversal signal has not been established, and we continue to wait.
Yesterday, it couldn't break through that resistance level, and the reason is very straightforward—there is just the upper edge of the daily FVG (Fair Value Gap). The market makers are filling the gap and locking in liquidity here, so there will naturally be pressure. After that, it’s highly likely to probe those cheap chips areas again.
It is recommended not to place orders and daydream; wait for clear candlestick signals before taking action. Patience often makes more money than being overly eager.
Wait for my news, and let's get in together #加密市场反弹
First, let's talk about the results. BTC is expected to rise from 89500 to 90500, and yesterday it rose from 89368 to 94555 ETH is expected to rise from 3100 to 3260, and yesterday it rose from 3089 to 3397
Take a look at this profit space, just ask if you're impressed
Because the market is always changing, although taking profits may not be at the highest point, entering the market was indeed at the very lowest point: $LUNA
Recently, I've been idling around and like to call out trades. If you're interested, you can check out Miao Ge's previous plaza calls or community strategies, which can be said to be perfectly profitable
The premise is that you need to hold on. This strategy has been in place for 13 hours, and many people are anxious. What I want to say is, "Hang in there, isn't it enough to make you a big profit once a day? Follow instructions, don't mess around"
The market is always changing. Let's get on board together and help you with your layout #加密市场观察
区块链淼哥
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Tuesday Daytime Big Pie Two Pie Latest Ideas
Currently in a brief pullback repair cycle, the downward momentum has shown clear signs of exhaustion, and the characteristics of a temporary bottom are gradually emerging.
From a four-hour perspective, it has consistently maintained operation above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. Although it has tested the middle track's pressure multiple times, each pullback has been quickly absorbed, and the bears have never been able to break through this key support level. This fully indicates that the current pullback is merely a corrective adjustment on the way up, not a reversal; the bulls' foundation remains solid, and the subsequent rebound is set to launch.
Looking at the hourly level, the trend has quietly completed a W-bottom formation and is currently in the pressure pullback phase at the neck line of the formation. Combined with changes in volume, this pullback has not been accompanied by increased volume, representing a typical power accumulation adjustment. It is expected that after reaching the lower support level, a new round of strong bullish momentum will quickly commence.
Big Pie: 89500-90500 long, watch for 92000, 93000; Ethereum: 3050 - 3100 long, watch for 3200, 3260. #ETH走势分析
The recent 5-day performance of FHE has indeed been outrageous. An account of 4200u finally reached 590,000u, and what I learned during this process was more than the money earned.
On the 3rd, there wasn't much going on, so I casually placed a long order at the position of 3.309, not really expecting anything. Who would have thought that this coin would directly enter crazy mode and surge all the way up? When it approached 8.789, I didn't get greedy and decisively took my profit, pocketing 100,000u. The thrill of that moment was indeed indescribable.
The next day, I felt a bit impulsive again and rebuilt my position at the point of 9.926. This time, luck was even better, as the coin price rose all the way to around 19.9, and I again chose to take quick profits, earning another 190,000u. After two consecutive waves, my mindset began to inflate.
But experience tells me to be cautious; the market won't always be so gentle. I changed my strategy and opened a 20x short position at the high point. The market fluctuated violently in the evening, and suddenly a big bullish candle hit 8.66, instantly increasing my account by 300,000u. At that moment, I realized that risk and opportunity are often just a K-line apart.
My current observation is that such fluctuations will continue to appear. With many market participants and significant emotional fluctuations, whether one can seize opportunities depends on execution power and risk awareness. The next round of market trends may indeed be more promising, but the premise is that you have to be alive to see that day. #加密市场观察
Cryptocurrency Wealth Transformation Rules: Rolling Positions is Your Chance to Make Millions
In the cryptocurrency world, there are not daily opportunities to get rich. Most of the time, what you see is market volatility and uncertainty; the real big opportunities are often few and far between. If you want to go from zero to millions, it's not about blindly fidgeting every day, but rather about patience and judgment—rolling positions is the few chances for ordinary people to transform their fate.
Don't rush; patiently wait for opportunities
Many beginners are always eager to take action, thinking that the earlier they enter the market, the more money they can make, but in the end, they often get bitten by the market. You have to remember that the logic of making money is not complicated. If the spot price rises by 20%, you earn 200,000. Achieving this stabilizes your mindset, and then it's just about repeating it continuously—don’t rush, live well. The key is not to operate every day, but to identify that moment of opportunity—"Only act when the opportunity comes!"
Rolling positions is not about daily trading, but about exploding at critical moments
Rolling positions is definitely not about being busy every day making trades, but about seizing opportunities at critical moments. Usually, you use a small position for guerrilla tactics; when the opportunity arises, you must quickly enlarge your position, betting heavily like firing an Italian cannon. If you can roll successfully three or four times in your life, that’s enough to start from zero and head straight to millions.
Three Iron Rules of Rolling Positions
Endure: Don't rush into every occasion; wait if the opportunity doesn't come. Making a wrong move once could lead to a total loss.
Seize certain opportunities: For example, after a significant crash followed by a long period of consolidation, then a breakout with volume; this pattern is most likely to show a trend. If you can identify it in advance, entering will yield greater profits.
Act immediately: Once the opportunity is confirmed, hesitating for a second could mean missing out. Don’t wait until the opportunity is gone to regret.
The cryptocurrency world doesn’t offer daily riches; rolling positions are key
The cryptocurrency world is not filled with doubling opportunities every moment, but rolling positions are definitely the moments when ordinary people can turn their fate. What you need to do is endure, wait, seize the opportunity, and then act. Real opportunities do not occur every hour, but rather require patience to wait and seize one or two significant fluctuations to achieve a turnaround in your life.
If you haven’t even turned 1,000,000, stop thinking about making 10 million a year or becoming a big shot in the cryptocurrency world. Don’t just brag; even cows get annoyed by it. True wealth is not about shouting "one more time" every day, but rather about accurate judgment and decisive action at those critical moments. #加密市场观察
After eight years immersed in the cryptocurrency world, I have summarized a few hard truths.
Since stepping into the cryptocurrency world at the age of 30, and now at 36, I have experienced the market's dramatic ups and downs, and I have witnessed my own growth. When I first entered, like most people, I operated based on my feelings and made a lot of money, but I quickly paid the price. The market crash caused my account balance to shrink overnight, and my mood plummeted as well. After going through all this, I finally understood – there are no secrets in the cryptocurrency world, only one word – stability.
In 2019, my account balance surpassed seven figures. At that time, I became inflated, thinking I had discovered the path to wealth. But the subsequent crash brought me back to reality. At that moment, I realized: the cryptocurrency world only punishes blind confidence; it never rewards inflated greed.
Now, my mindset is calmer than before. Watching those around me fall due to “greed,” I have learned how to walk alongside “stability.” BTC is like the market's barometer. When it rises, the market cheers; when it falls, almost no one can escape unscathed. Those smaller cryptocurrencies often follow the trend, and if you can't keep up, you will ultimately lose. Therefore, keeping an eye on BTC's movements is essential to better grasp the market.
BTC and USDT are the market's weather vane. A sudden rise in USDT often signals capital withdrawal, while a surge in BTC frequently indicates potential risks. When the market is at its most lively, it is often the most dangerous moment.
Another detail to mention – timing. The risks of overnight spikes, the morning is suitable for calm observation, and the afternoon fluctuations in the U.S. market often magnify several times. Mastering these rhythms is key to remaining undefeated amidst volatility.
Don't panic just because the market is down; the key is to choose quality cryptocurrencies, control your position, and gradually average down. A bear market is not the end; it is a phase that tests patience and judgment. Looking back, that investment in DOGE at 0.1 USDT has already multiplied more than twenty times, relying solely on a “steady” heart.
In the cryptocurrency world, wealth and bankruptcy coexist. Those who can truly navigate through bull and bear markets are often not the smartest, but those who can remain stable, stay calm, and let go. This is the deepest rule of the cryptocurrency game. #加密市场观察
The market is changing, the price of ETH has reached 3094, which is slightly different from my estimate of 3050, I didn't get in
However, BTC has perfectly entered the market, my expected price was 8950, it dropped to 89368, some people are already doubting that you Miao Ge is the dealer
It seems I need to be low-key in the coming days, I really don't want to be investigated by the market a few more times, that feeling is not good at all...
I am currently setting up the next order, let's get in together #加密市场观察
区块链淼哥
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Tuesday Daytime Big Pie Two Pie Latest Ideas
Currently in a brief pullback repair cycle, the downward momentum has shown clear signs of exhaustion, and the characteristics of a temporary bottom are gradually emerging.
From a four-hour perspective, it has consistently maintained operation above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. Although it has tested the middle track's pressure multiple times, each pullback has been quickly absorbed, and the bears have never been able to break through this key support level. This fully indicates that the current pullback is merely a corrective adjustment on the way up, not a reversal; the bulls' foundation remains solid, and the subsequent rebound is set to launch.
Looking at the hourly level, the trend has quietly completed a W-bottom formation and is currently in the pressure pullback phase at the neck line of the formation. Combined with changes in volume, this pullback has not been accompanied by increased volume, representing a typical power accumulation adjustment. It is expected that after reaching the lower support level, a new round of strong bullish momentum will quickly commence.
Big Pie: 89500-90500 long, watch for 92000, 93000; Ethereum: 3050 - 3100 long, watch for 3200, 3260. #ETH走势分析
For friends with only five thousand USDT, I must say a word of truth—calm down first, don't follow the trend.
In the game of the crypto market, insufficient starting capital is not a problem at all. What truly brings people down are these few things: acting irrationally, being controlled by emotions, and making decisions based on a gambler's mindset.
Treating trading like a casino leads to basically one outcome—account wiped out.
Do you remember the excitement when you first entered the market? When the market rises, you feel it's calling; when a certain coin skyrockets, you fear missing out; seeing others make profits makes your hands itchy; when you see a pullback, your heart starts to panic.
And then? Chasing highs, bottom fishing, going all in, holding positions—these four actions repeat like a macro in a loop. The result after a year of turmoil is either a liquidation or being harvested by the market like a sieve.
I have seen too many small capital players dreaming of "turning the tide overnight": confidently building positions, but kneeling in regret after a crash.
But you need to understand a key point—
Small money itself is not a disadvantage; surviving is the advantage.
These five thousand cannot withstand erratic mentality, unfounded impulses, or the kind of exhausting monitoring that leads to nervous breakdowns.
It seems like chasing opportunities, but in reality, it’s just giving money to the market.
Those who really turn small capital into large capital have a characteristic:
Steady, not urgent, not gambling.
They won’t be envious because their neighbor makes money, they won’t dump when a certain coin drops, and they won’t recklessly add positions for the "doubling dream."
Their approach looks simple but is surprisingly effective:
Follow the trend, don’t chase peaks; set a bottom line, don’t stubbornly hold; look at the big cycle, don’t be swayed by minute-level fluctuations.
Five thousand may not be much, but it’s enough for you to train your mindset, hone your patience, and learn to execute discipline.
Just do three things—
Steady (keep your heart calm), precise (act only when the signal is confirmed), and ruthless (execute the plan with iron discipline).
If you survive the most chaotic phase, you will find your account slowly climbing from five thousand to twenty thousand, and then from twenty thousand to sixty thousand.
Now you have to ask yourself: Do you plan to be cut by the market for a lifetime, or do you want to be the one who laughs last?
Contracts are something I've played with for eight years, turning my account from 5,000 U to seven figures, without a single liquidation along the way.
It's not just luck; it's because I treat trading as a probability game—rules set in stone, strictly executed, and the market will naturally provide the answers.
First, let’s talk about how to pocket the profits.
Before every trade, the take profit and stop loss points must be set in advance. This is not a suggestion; it’s a hard rule.
Profits on the books hit 10%? Immediately cut it in half: one half moved to a cold wallet to secure it, the other half continues to roll in the account. If the market is good, let the profits run; if the market crashes, at least protect half.
The principal is more important than anything else; as long as it survives, you have the capital to turn things around.
Over the years, I’ve withdrawn profits over thirty times, with the most aggressive being a withdrawal of 180,000 U in one week. This isn't bragging; it's to tell you: money not in hand is just vapor.
Now, let’s talk about how to position without stepping into pitfalls.
Where others get liquidated is often where the trend reverses.
My method involves three layers of filtering: looking at the big direction on the daily chart, trading range on the 4-hour chart, and seizing entry opportunities on the 15-minute chart.
For the same coin, I will place two orders simultaneously: Order A goes long with the trend, Order B goes short against the trend, each order's risk controlled within 1.5% of total capital.
In a volatile market, I harvest from both sides; in a one-sided market, at least I make gains on one side.
During the LUNA crash, I took profits on both sides at the same time, and that day my account rose by 40%. This isn’t about precise predictions; it’s about the structural design that allows for errors.
Finally, let’s discuss how to survive long-term.
Stop loss isn’t admitting defeat; it’s a trading cost.
My system's win rate is only 40%, but the risk-to-reward ratio can reach 4:1, which leads to stable profits over the long term.
The core operations boil down to three rules:
Divide capital into 10 parts, with a maximum of 3 parts in the market at any time; Stop trading immediately after two consecutive losses; never get emotional and retaliate against the market; After doubling the account, withdraw 20% to allocate to other assets.
The market isn’t afraid of you losing money; it’s afraid of you going all-in and exiting completely.
As long as you’re still at the table, time will eventually be on your side. The truly skilled traders aren’t those who seize opportunities the most but those who control risks the most steadily. #加密市场观察
Currently in a brief pullback repair cycle, the downward momentum has shown clear signs of exhaustion, and the characteristics of a temporary bottom are gradually emerging.
From a four-hour perspective, it has consistently maintained operation above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. Although it has tested the middle track's pressure multiple times, each pullback has been quickly absorbed, and the bears have never been able to break through this key support level. This fully indicates that the current pullback is merely a corrective adjustment on the way up, not a reversal; the bulls' foundation remains solid, and the subsequent rebound is set to launch.
Looking at the hourly level, the trend has quietly completed a W-bottom formation and is currently in the pressure pullback phase at the neck line of the formation. Combined with changes in volume, this pullback has not been accompanied by increased volume, representing a typical power accumulation adjustment. It is expected that after reaching the lower support level, a new round of strong bullish momentum will quickly commence.
Big Pie: 89500-90500 long, watch for 92000, 93000; Ethereum: 3050 - 3100 long, watch for 3200, 3260. #ETH走势分析
I think the interest rate decision to be announced this week is one of the most challenging decisions of the year. Because on one hand, the market is filled with the atmosphere of 'definitely a 25 basis point cut', while on the other hand, the latest data set still shows a tightening... This contradiction makes pricing very chaotic.
My personal view is clear: The Fed's rate cut itself, I believe, is not the only sufficient factor for pricing. What really matters is Powell's tone. Because last year we also saw the same situation, the market was not shaken by the decision itself, but by the uncertainty in the remarks.
This week I am particularly focused on Bitcoin's reaction in the 86-92 range. There was a similar consolidation in 2021, everyone was paying attention to 'decision day', but in reality, the volatility occurred the day before the announcement. At that time, I was eager to enter the market, and ended up getting trapped, suffering unnecessary losses. So this time I will not operate aggressively.
To briefly outline my strategy: I will first pay attention to volatility, especially in the case of ETF fund inflows, the market's reaction to 'expectations' rather than 'decisions' is more meaningful. If there is a rate cut and the press conference tone is gentle, I expect mainstream coins will see a rapid rebound; but I will not chase the bottom, but rather wait for confirmation signals, because I have learned: in this market, surviving is more important than being overly optimistic too early.
This week may really decide the direction. If the Fed's attitude turns dovish, there will be a breather in the short term, but for a sustained rise, clearer macro data is needed.
These are some of my thoughts, let's see who will be the winner this time. #加密市场观察