XXwhispereri

#加密市场回调

The four-year bull and bear cycle theory of Bitcoin is provoking intense debate.
—— With large-scale institutional participation and the popularity of ETFs, the traditional four-year halving-driven cycle has become ineffective.

Cory Klippsten (Swan
Bitcoin CEO) bluntly stated that the four-year cycle may be "dead" because institutional demand has completely changed the supply-demand structure.

Michaël van de Poppe agrees that the market structure has changed but still believes that the peak of this cycle could be around October 2025.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes that the four-year cycle has faded from the historical stage: if the market hasn't significantly dropped by 2026, then that will be the new normal.

On the other hand, James Check (on-chain analyst) strongly advocates that Bitcoin is entering a "new era": bull and bear cycles are no longer dominated by halving but rather determined by macroeconomic factors and investor structure.


There are also suggestions of a "five-year cycle" theory; for instance, Raoul Pal believes that the peak of future cycles could be in 2026.

If the four-year cycle has indeed "ended," it would be a positive signal for long-term investors:

It means Bitcoin is no longer so heavily dependent on halving events, and investment logic may shift more towards institutional funds and macro factors.

However, for those relying on historical cycles for short- to medium-term trading, the risks are equally high: traditional peak and trough references may become ineffective, necessitating more flexible strategies.

Suggestion: Medium- to long-term holders may consider continuing to accumulate, but should closely monitor macro signals (interest rates, macro policies, ETF inflows, etc.) before entering new cycle peaks.

Short-term traders need to adjust their expectation models and no longer just focus on past halving patterns.

#BTC四年周期已打破

#美股2026预测 #加密市场回调 #特朗普取消农产品关税
Trump's proposal of "tariff dividend checks" has a simple core motivation:

Pressuring the Supreme Court + boosting support for next year's midterm elections.

But the premise is to be able to control the Supreme Court, and if it is to be implemented, it will have to wait until mid-next year.

Although a government shutdown can be ended with just a signature,
system reboot takes at least two weeks,
and liquidity recovery takes even longer.

Bessent certainly understands this, so Trump's timing must be calculated,
to achieve twice the result with half the effort, avoiding ineffective shouting.

There is only one key variable: inflation.

10/26 (October PCE) and 12/10 (November CPI) are the nodes.

Controllable inflation → Fiscal stimulus is more effective, markets respond better
Uncontrollable inflation → Must first curb inflation, then discuss stimulus

The logic is very clear:
📈 Inflation lower than expected → Cryptocurrency market sentiment rises, prices go up
📉 Inflation higher than expected → Sentiment worsens, further declines are expected

This is consistent with what was said before:
Only when inflation peaks and falls, and the Federal Reserve enters a second pause, will there be a real market movement.

The Trump team will certainly align their actions in the interest rate and capital markets with the rhythm of inflation.

Because true power is not just in shouting,
but in —
gaining momentum.

#加密市场回调 Recently, the encrypted ETF market has become quite interesting.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing a massive outflow, while Solana and XRP are attracting significant investments.
A new Solana ETF has only been live for three weeks, and it has already seen $380 million in inflows.

The spot ETF for XRP is even more impressive, with a trading volume of $250 million on its first day, making it the champion of first-day trading volume among over 900 ETFs launched this year.


No matter how much traditional finance doubts it, where real money flows is the best indication of the situation.
Looking back at the big players:

BTC ETF has seen over $3 billion in outflows in three weeks.
ETH ETF has also been redeemed for $1.2 billion.
In total, $4.2 billion has left the market, primarily affected by macro uncertainty and selling pressure from large holders.

Although short-term volatility is significant, the number of institutional holders continues to rise, indicating that large funds haven't fled; they are just switching tracks.

In summary:
Market sentiment is changing, and funds are shifting from BTC/ETH to new hot assets like Solana and XRP.

#特朗普取消农产品关税
On November 14, 2025, Trump signed an executive order to revoke or exempt certain imported agricultural products from the 'reciprocal tariffs' system.

The fact sheet released by the White House clearly stated that due to factors such as 'domestic demand for certain products,' 'America's own production capacity,' and progress in trade agreements, certain agricultural products would be included in the exemption, including: coffee, tea, tropical fruits and juices, cocoa, spices, beef, bananas, oranges, tomatoes, and some fertilizers.

The exemption measures will take effect on November 13, 2025.

This move comes amid concerns from American consumers about rising food prices, political pressure in the context of elections, and signals of adjustments in trade policy.

✅ Macroeconomic Impact
Elimination of food tariffs → Decrease in food inflation → Increased downward pressure on CPI
The market believes the Federal Reserve finds it easier to cut interest rates (more accommodative rate expectations)
The dollar is weaker, and risk asset sentiment is warming up.

✅ Cryptocurrency Impact
BTC and ETH benefit the most: low inflation + weak dollar = a typical combination for crypto to rise.
Altcoins are stronger: risk appetite increases.
DeFi and perpetual contract trading increase: improved liquidity.

#代币化热潮 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 SEC Chairman Atkins' Key Points from the Speech on 'Project Crypto'

1. Most crypto tokens are not securities.
Atkins clearly stated: The vast majority of tokens themselves do not qualify as securities unless they represent traditional financial instruments or come with a clear commitment of 'profit based on the efforts of the issuer'.

2. Investment contracts can end, and tokens will not always be securities.
A token, even if it was sold as an investment contract, can detach from being classified as a security once the issuer fulfills their commitments, the network matures, and governance is decentralized.

3. The SEC will introduce a clear token classification system (Token Taxonomy).
Four categories:
Digital commodities/network tokens (non-securities)
Digital collectibles (non-securities)
Digital tools/utility tokens (non-securities)
Securitized tokens (securities)

4. An 'exclusive issuance exemption for crypto assets' will be launched to lower compliance thresholds.
The SEC is preparing a new tailored offering regime to allow crypto projects to raise funds and innovate more easily under clear rules, especially for small and medium-sized projects.

5. The SEC aims to protect investors but will not hinder innovation.
Regulatory principles:
Strictly crack down on fraud
Respect legal boundaries
Do not treat all tokens as stocks
Keep the U.S. as an innovation hub
Emphasize: Rules must be 'clear, understandable, and predictable'.

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