CamJac

🪙 Gold ETF inflows of $3.8B, yet gold prices can’t move up?

In September, U.S.-listed gold ETFs attracted about $3.8 billion in inflows, but gold still fell by roughly 6.6% for the month, hovering around $4,160 per ounce at one point.

Money is buying, but the price isn’t cooperating—why?

📌 Three key factors:
1️⃣ Elevated U.S. Treasury yields: Gold itself doesn’t generate interest. The higher the bond yields, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold.
2️⃣ A stronger U.S. dollar: When the dollar is strong, it usually adds pressure to gold priced in USD.
3️⃣ Long-term buying demand vs. short-term selling pressure: ETF funds continue to flow in, and central bank gold purchases also provide support, but some systematic/quant and momentum funds are withdrawing.

My view is that gold’s long-term allocation demand is still there, but a short-term rebound can’t be proven by inflows alone.

Next, the focus is on whether U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar can fall. If these two variables don’t cooperate, even the strongest safe-haven narrative may not immediately lift gold prices.

Remember: inflows are a demand signal, not a guarantee of price increases.

#XAU #Gold