斯海梦哥交易

I don't know how I found my way here, looking at the pictures, those who understand will understand!!

$ETH

US stocks opened 300 points higher, the market fluctuated but did not rise or fall, the dogs do not know what they are brewing, how will they harvest us!
$BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #ETH走势分析

Last night, the square announced that the real-time strategy had already been flipped. The 9 Dan Square has a winning streak, all of which were announced in advance. Here, I remind newcomers that it's better to copy the square's homework than to rely on your own instincts to make trades! Also, prepare for the US stock market opening; the next Dan's strategy is being monitored by Meng Ge. If you need it, feel free to come and get it!!

$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国非农数据超预期

How to view the end of the year? From Japan's interest rate hike to the Christmas market, let's talk about the main line for the next six months.

As mentioned earlier, Japan's interest rate hike brings us back to the cryptocurrency market itself. From October until now, the market has undergone a historic level of liquidation, with leverage and sentiment being systematically cleared. Many people might wonder if this signifies the end of the market, but based on past experience, large-scale liquidations are often not the endpoint, but rather the starting point for the next phase.

The current timing is also crucial, as we enter the end of the year and approach Christmas. Historically, this period tends to experience what is known as the "Christmas market." The reasons are not complicated. On one hand, institutions need to rebalance their assets at year-end. This year, the volatility of risk assets has been significant, leading to a demand for replenishment in underweighted positions; on the other hand, year-end liquidity often shows marginal improvement. Once buying pressure is concentrated and released, prices are more easily pushed up. Therefore, the success rate of technical rebounds at year-end is usually higher than usual.

If we extend our perspective to the first quarter of 2026, which is about the next six months, the imaginative space during this period is even greater. The current market is gradually forming several consensus points: First, the policy direction of major global central banks is transitioning from tightening to easing, with funds placing more emphasis on expectations rather than already occurred facts; second, the U.S. Treasury's TGA is releasing liquidity, with funds flowing back into the market, providing direct support for risk assets; third, as the new fiscal year begins, institutions need to reposition themselves, with passive and active funds entering the market simultaneously, often amplifying market volatility.

In this phase, I am more inclined to suggest focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum because, once sentiment is ignited, the first choices for funds will always be these two directions, and the main upward wave often starts here.

Finally, it's worth noting that the market never arrives suddenly; it only rewards those who have already positioned themselves well during the worst market sentiment. The decline in December essentially provides ample time and price windows. There is no need to pursue buying at the lowest point; gradually aligning positions towards BTC and ETH while allowing patience for time is often more important than frequent trading.

$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察 #BinanceABCs

"The Insider Whale of 1011" has been increasing its long positions on Dan today, and there are rumors that he is the son of Huangmao!!

$BTC $ETH $SOL

To be honest, today's SOL performance compared to Bitcoin is really weak. I'm preparing to exit my SOL position to break even. It’s not wrong to say that the trend is rebounding slightly. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded, but only SOL! I'm speechless; I bought into loneliness!
$SOL $BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向

Brothers, today we won't shout slogans or get emotional; let's calmly dissect the issue with the Bank of Japan.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, which frankly has already become a clear signal. What is truly valuable now is not whether to raise interest rates, but whether last night's market reaction has already priced in expectations.

Let's briefly review the history, focusing on facts rather than emotions.

During the Bank of Japan's last three interest rate hike cycles, Bitcoin's performance was not friendly:

In March 2024, BTC retraced about 24%;

In July 2024, BTC retraced nearly 30%;

In January 2025, BTC retraced over 32%.

Once could be seen as a coincidence, twice could still be debated, but three times grouped together becomes a pattern. So the question is not 'will it rise,' but a more realistic question: Will there be a similar scenario again in December 2025?

What I personally worry about the most has never been the news itself. The real danger lies in the state of many people in the market now—assuming that the bad news has already been fully priced in and starting to get overly optimistic. You'll notice that more and more people are not waiting for support or retracement, but are going all in, hoping that 'once the boot drops, it'll take off.'

During such times, it is often the easiest to encounter problems.

The logic of seasoned investors is actually very simple:

Do not bet on direction, only respond;

Do not go all in, only keep some bullets;

Do not rush to catch the first rebound, wait for the market to provide a real opportunity.

When the market gives opportunities, I will definitely be there;

But before that, surviving is more important than anything else.

Many new friends often think that experts make big money by predicting. The truth is, those who can survive one major event after another are the ones who deserve to discuss the next market cycle. Being able to wait, endure, and hold cash is a strength in itself.

Last night's drop has left many stuck in a sideways market; those who are trapped can come; those who cannot see the direction can also come; those who do not know the support levels can still come, and the chat room welcomes you!
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国非农数据超预期 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

It's been many days since the last real-time strategy was released, and it's here tonight!!! At 2:28 AM, the real-time strategy for the square is as follows: $SOL aggressive direct market price 123.1 for long, conservative limit 119.8 for long, swing trades should exit immediately!

The tasks have been prepared for everyone, feel free to copy!! Will this be the square's announcement of the real-time strategy's 9 consecutive wins??

$BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向

Many troops return!!
$SOL
#美国非农数据超预期

Let me briefly go over the news from the past couple of days and share my current thoughts #美国非农数据超预期

$ETH
Yesterday's unemployment rate was higher than expected and reached a nearly four-year high. According to textbook logic, this is a definite positive, indicating that the economy is cooling down, and there is more room for interest rate cuts in the future. However, you will find that Bitcoin has hardly reacted at all, neither rising nor falling #巨鲸动向

The reason is actually not complicated—money has already hidden away in advance.
Because this week, there are still two bombs hanging over our heads, and funds are unwilling to take a stance before the results come out.

The first bomb is the CPI at 21:30 tomorrow night.

This data needs no further explanation; it is one of the most sensitive indicators in the market.

Higher than expected: clearly negative, lower than expected: clearly positive.

The second bomb is the Japanese central bank's interest rate decision on Friday.

The current consensus in the market is: a rate hike of 25bp (about 70% probability), which is within expectations; the impact has mostly been digested in the recent downturn.

If the rate hike is ≥50bp (about 31% probability), then it is no small matter, and BTC could potentially fall below 80,000.

One thing is certain: the closer we get to these two time points, the more "fragile" Bitcoin will be.

The market may not have fallen much, but sentiments will collapse first, and panic will be infinitely amplified. In the short term, if it falls below 85,000, and Ethereum breaks below this week's previous low, it's not completely impossible.

But to be complete, if the CPI brings good news, along with a smooth interest rate hike from the Japanese central bank, without any surprises, then the sentiment will reverse very quickly. At that time, Bitcoin will likely regain 90,000 in no time.

In this kind of volatile market with major events, the most common mistake is: being forced by emotions to cut losses at the bottom.

The cruelest part of the market is that it doesn’t necessarily decline a lot, but it will make you "think it will continue to fall." Once you can’t hold on and sell, it will reverse and rise.

My strategy has always been simple, with no fancy tricks: don’t chase highs, don’t panic, and keep good bullets. There are always people who get liquidated in every round, but the cycle only rewards those who remain calm.

This month’s performance has been passable, but ultimately, the market is not won by words; it’s earned through discipline and patience.

My stage is always reserved for those with vision, ambition, and the ability to endure.

Let’s encourage each other. $BTC $SOL

$SOL The market is exhausting, it has been sideways for a day and a night and another day!! Just did a SOL swing yesterday, the rest are all in cash status, let's see tonight!!

$BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向

Don't rush to be bearish: Data is relatively strong, and the market is closer to a "soft landing"

The recently released U.S. data is overall better than market expectations. The first reaction for many might be to consider this a negative for risk assets, but from a more neutral perspective, this may not be a bad thing; rather, it could be a moderately positive development.

The reason is that what the current market truly fears is not an economy that is "too good," but rather an economy that "suddenly stalls."

1. Strong data confirms a "soft landing," not a return to tightening

Data exceeding expectations indicates that employment and consumption remain resilient, which is closer to a "soft landing" scenario rather than a recession environment that requires urgent stimulus.

In this context, the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, but the direction has not changed; policy has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "when and by how much to cut."

As long as interest rates are in a downward channel, even if the pace slows, it does not constitute a systemic blow to risk assets.

2. Revised interest rate cut expectations are favorable for the market to go further

For the cryptocurrency market, the most dangerous scenario is not the compression of expectations, but rather the over-leveraging of expectations.

Strong data can actually help the market:

- Squeeze out short-term overheated optimistic sentiment

- Clean up some high leverage and chasing funds

- Make the upward structure healthier

This "expectation correction" does not equate to a trend reversal.

3. Economic resilience makes funds more willing to allocate to risk assets

When economic data shows stability, funds will not rush to fully hedge. On the contrary, under the premise that there is no systemic recession risk, some funds will be more willing to allocate to high-elasticity assets during pullbacks, and cryptocurrency assets possess this characteristic.

From this perspective, strong data has not cut off the logic of funds entering risk assets; it has only made the entry approach more rational.

4. The impact of Japan's interest rate hike expectations is overestimated

Market concerns about Japan's interest rate hikes are more reflected in the medium to long term, rather than immediately withdrawing global liquidity. As long as this process is slow and predictable, it will be difficult to change the overall risk appetite direction in the short term.

From the bullish perspective of the cryptocurrency market, this data exceeding expectations feels more like a "cooling rather than a turning point":

Short-term volatility may occur, but the medium-term structure remains intact, which is conducive to a more stable and longer-lasting market

$ETH

Everyone, a few hours ago, Meng Ge told you not to go long, right? At that time, Ethereum was at 2983, and then it continued to drop, dropping to 2890. It has rebounded a bit and is currently hovering around 2940. To be honest, if you have been following Meng Ge's posts for trading, you basically won't incur any losses!! I am still in a short position, and I will wait for the US stock market to close before considering entering the market!!

$BTC $ETH $SOL #巨鲸动向 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

Everyone, this wave of selling was mainly caused by the emotional sell-off due to the interest rate hike in Japan, so Meng Ge has been observing and hasn't provided a strategy at the plaza. At this moment, Meng Ge still won't consider entering to buy long. I'll wait until between 4 AM and 6 AM, and if it has stabilized by then, I will buy long at that time!!

$BTC $ETH $SOL
#巨鲸动向

In the cryptocurrency world, don't think about millions just yet.

$BTC First, let's turn a few tens of thousands steadily into 1 million.

If you've been in the crypto space long enough, you'll realize that very few people who truly succeed do so overnight.

Most people start with a few tens of thousands and slowly roll it into 1 million.

To be honest:

If you haven't steadily made 1 million, thinking about tens of millions or hundreds of millions is basically a fantasy.

$ETH 1. Ordinary people succeed by rolling their capital.

Rolling capital simply means:

👉 The money you earn is reinvested to make more money.

When your principal is small, not rolling your capital means your principal will never grow;

But as long as the method is correct and the rhythm is steady, the speed of compound interest will get faster and faster.

Don't keep thinking about catching big trends or betting on explosive increases,

First, learn to gradually increase your account, that's the right way.

$SOL 2. Why is 1 million a critical point?

When you truly have 1 million in principal, your trading logic will completely change.

If the spot price increases by 20%, that's 200,000.

You don’t need to leverage every day.

You don’t need to chase rising prices or panic sell.

Your mindset will naturally be much steadier.

At this point, you'll find that

Making money no longer relies on excitement, but on probability, patience, and rhythm.

3. You must adhere to these three rules when rolling capital.

First, be patient.

Opportunities don't come every day; missing one is okay,

Frequent trading is the fastest way to lose money.

Second, only seize high-certainty opportunities.

Emotional lows after a big drop,

Breakouts after long consolidations,

These are the ones that are likely to trend.

Third, be decisive once confirmed.

Hesitation will only lead you to buy high and sell low.

When opportunities arise, execution is more important than judgment.

4. Where is the real gap in the cryptocurrency world?

It's not about information, not about talent,

But about whether you have patience,

Whether you have discipline,

And whether you can steadily take action when key opportunities arise.

The crypto world doesn’t make you rich every day,

But every market cycle will give you the chance to adjust your positions.

If you currently only have a few tens of thousands in principal, don’t rush.

First, set your goal at 1 million.

Once you reach this point,

You have already outperformed most people.

#日本加息 #美联储FOMC会议 #加密市场反弹

Square real-time strategy record of 8 consecutive victories, refuse to boast, welcome to check historical posts for verification!! Directly let you feel what it means to eat both long and short, continue to plan strategies in the evening, you can directly scan the code to enter with the strategy!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹

Did you copy Dream Brother's real-time strategy assignment from last night?? When the post was made, the big cake point was 90300, and now the big cake point is 93000, a full 3000 points. The real-time strategy record has already achieved 8 consecutive victories, rejecting empty talk, and welcome to check historical posts for verification!!

$BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹

After the interest rate cut, the more dense the data, the more opportunities there are in the crypto market.

Last night's speech by Powell remained neutral, neither dovish nor hawkish, but he clearly emphasized: the future path of interest rates will depend entirely on future data. This statement conveys a core signal— the Federal Reserve has shifted from 'expectation management' to 'data-driven'.

For the market, this actually means one thing: uncertainty is marginally decreasing, while opportunities are marginally increasing.

Why do I say this?

The 25 basis point rate cut has been implemented, and the policy turning point has been established. Once the interest rate turning point appears, the market often enters a phase of 'data-driven, slowly warming trends'. Tonight's initial jobless claims data is the first important testing point.

As long as employment data shows slight weakness (a mild slowdown rather than deterioration), it will reinforce the market's expectation that 'there is still room for future rate cuts', which is beneficial for risk markets including crypto assets.

For investors with a cautiously bullish stance, although the current environment is not a fast bull market, it is very suitable for positioning at low levels and patiently waiting for trend confirmation.

Because in the early stages of a policy shift, the market generally does not rise straight up, but instead gradually rises, step by step building out the bottom structure.

Every short-term fluctuation brought by data releases is actually an opportunity to better optimize position and layout rhythm.

$Summary: The denser the future data, the more frequent the short-term fluctuations in the crypto market, but the mid-term trend will become increasingly clear— the direction is not an immediate surge, but a steady strengthening.
$BTC $ZEC $ETH
#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议

Still crashed, the revelry from the night before directly plummeted back to the ground after the interest rate cut was finalized. Last night, after watching Old Powell's speech, which was neither dovish nor hawkish, I couldn't stay awake and went straight to sleep, thus escaping a disaster. Now, Bitcoin has stabilized around 90,000; those who are aggressive can take a chance on a rebound at the current market price! This is definitely not a problem! Just set the stop-loss!
$BTC
#美联储降息

Watching Old Bao speak

$ETH

#美SEC推动加密创新监管