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US stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 edging down, the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.15%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 179 points, or 0.35%, after having risen as much as 460 points intraday. Traders digested earnings from major banks and a sharp overnight drop in Korean equities that weighed on storage chip stocks. According to Sina Finance, JPMorgan reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that missed analyst expectations, but raised its 2026 net interest income guidance, with its stock roughly flat. Wells Fargo fell 2% on mixed Q3 results, while Goldman Sachs edged higher after revenue topped estimates. UnitedHealth gained slightly after beating analyst expectations.
FactSet data showed analysts on average expect S&P 500 profits to rise nearly 30% year over year. Storage chip stocks came under pressure after South Korea's Kospi index plunged 5.5% to its lowest level since July 31 amid valuation concerns and intensifying competition. SK Hynix dropped nearly 4%, Seagate Technology and Western Digital fell 2%, Micron Technology slid nearly 5%, and SanDisk fell more than 2%.
The US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.193%, pulling back from last week's peak of 5.364% — a 24-year high. CME FedWatch data showed the market now prices an 80.6% probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged at its meeting later this month, up from 51% a month ago.
Brent crude fell 1.7% to $104.78 per barrel. European stocks rose broadly, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 up 0.7% and the UK FTSE 100 leading with a 0.8% gain. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citi see growing value in US Treasuries, though they differ on timing. Saxo Bank chief investment strategist Charu Chanana called the recent Treasury buying more of a "tactical rebound," noting that sticky inflation, elevated oil prices, and massive government borrowing remain obstacles to a sustained bond market recovery.

Wednesday's closely watched consumer price reading could show intensifying inflationary pressures as energy costs keep climbing, according to CNBC. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect September headline CPI to rise 0.6% on the month and 3.6% year over year — a 12-month number signaling that price growth is accelerating and moving further from the Federal Reserve's 2% goal. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase 0.2% from August and 2.5% on a 12-month basis — a slight month-over-month slowdown but an uptick in year-over-year inflation.

Oil-related prices could drive the headline figure even higher, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Energy costs have been among the biggest drivers of inflation since the US war with Iran began earlier this year, and President Donald Trump last week announced loosened diesel restrictions on Russia in a bid to juice the global oil trade, though analysts don't believe it will meaningfully bring down prices. Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed more than 14% in September, bringing its third-quarter advance to about 42%, with prices trading around $105 a barrel Tuesday. "We've got real upside risk on the September CPI," Brusuelas said. "Typically, when we have these moves in inflation, everyone's models undershoot the actual outcome."

Sticky oil prices could also push up costs in non-energy categories, said Robert Sockin, chief US economist at asset manager PGIM, making it harder for the Fed to write off the energy surge as a short-term shock that won't necessitate rate increases. After announcing its first increase in three years last month, the Fed signaled in its meeting minutes that it will likely have to hike again; Fed funds futures traders anticipate the next lift at the December meeting, per CME's FedWatch tool. "The list of reasons to hike rates in our view is long," Sockin said. "Ultimately, we have low confidence in the timing of the Fed's next move, but more conviction on the direction of travel." Wednesday's release is the last CPI reading before November's midterms, which could determine whether the Republican Party keeps total control in Washington. Economic confidence has fallen this year across political affiliations per University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, with Republican and independent voters posting steeper declines than Democrats since the start of 2026. Thursday's producer price index is forecast to rise 0.6% from August to September and 5.5% on a 12-month basis — both a modest acceleration from August's release.