链客-芯途

🔥 Back from hibernation! ETH long and short logic clarified, the veteran will help you seize core opportunities! 🚀
✅ Major viewpoint remains unchanged: #ETH ultimate target locked below 1500 USD! Long-term trend unchanged, patiently waiting for bottom confirmation～
⏳ Short-term market truth: liquidity has dropped to freezing point! In a market with no trades, it could collapse early～ A high probability of a "bull trap rebound" is coming, reactivating market sentiment!
🎯 Rebound target is clear:
Main target: around 3800 USD, extreme spike: 4000 USD threshold
💥 The veteran is back! The market opportunity has been sensed, this rebound + subsequent large drop, double dividends are ready to be seized～ Follow me for real-time trading signals! $BTC

股市的涨势可谓史无前例：美国家庭目前持有的股票占其净资产的比例已超过房地产，这是过去65年来的第三次。与此同时，公司股票和共同基金的持有量在2025年第二季度升至约31%的净资产，创历史新高。这一比例自2008年以来已翻了一番多。相比之下，2000年互联网泡沫破裂时的峰值约为25%。与此同时，房地产资产占总净资产的比例在第二季度降至30%以下，这是自2021年以来的首次。这一比例远低于2006年房地产泡沫破裂前38%的峰值。资产持有者正在获利。$BTC #币圈现状

日本加息：币圈“便宜钱”时代落幕？
核心事件：日本加息开启政策转向
昨日日本央行加息25个基点，利率升至0.75%（创1995年新高）。市场看似平静，实则这场“三十年一遇”的政策调整，正精准抽走币圈的核心养分——流动性。
关键逻辑：日元套利交易退潮
币圈流动性承压的核心原因的是日元套利交易收缩：
过去数十年，全球机构以近乎零成本借入日元，转而投向加密货币等高收益资产赚取利差。这套规模达数万亿美元的操作，是此前币圈牛市的重要“燃料”。如今日本加息直接推高借贷成本，套利空间大幅压缩，机构被迫卖出比特币、赎回日元还债，引发市场流动性“抽水”。
市场影响：风险与机遇并存
风险层面：历史数据显示，日本前三次加息后4-6周内，比特币均出现20%-30%的跌幅；当前叠加圣诞假期市场流动性本就偏弱，抛压更容易被放大。
机遇层面：若市场充分消化加息预期、恐慌情绪见顶，可能迎来“利空出尽”的反弹；此外，日本在美联储降息周期中独自紧缩的政策分化，长远来看或凸显比特币等非主权资产的避险属性。
操作建议
降杠杆优先：高杠杆是当前最大风险，波动放大时极易爆仓，需优先降低杠杆
保留现金等待信号：不盲目抄底，重点关注比特币85000美元关键位企稳情况，以及日线级别缩量信号
紧盯中长期政策：关注日本后续加息节奏，以及美联储政策动向，若流动性预期修复，比特币或率先反弹
核心提醒：潮水退去时，活下来比赚快钱更重要。市场从不缺机会，缺的是保住本金后仍能上桌的筹码。$BTC #日本加息

💥Woke up directly breaking defenses! $LIGHT Dog fund's operation is incredible! Quietly building momentum for N days, suddenly a violent surge to new highs📈, making retail investors think a crazy bull market is about to start, rushing to buy in! As a result, it suddenly turns into a “fake fall, real exit”, with the speed of the crash faster than lightning📉. The retail investors didn't even react, and their accounts were directly pressed to the floor!
This precise harvesting, the dog fund really understands human nature! 🤔 Now the controversy is full: is it going to continue crashing to find the bottom, or a brief pullback before another wave of cutting?
A word of advice from an old hand: don’t rush to curse! The assets that have dropped deeply may hide bottom-fishing opportunities! Dare to bet on its pullback to the right position? Let's discuss your bottom-fishing price in the comments and see who the real retail investors and who the real experts are! 🔥$ETH

🔥HIP-3 引爆 DEX 革命：PvE 增长时代来了
📌 CEX 困局：靠机构信任 + 法币通道稳盘，高合规成本拖垮创新节奏🚧 DEX 痛点：激励模式有潜力，却被撮合引擎、清算系统等技术门槛卡死✅ HIP-3 核心破局：质押 50 万 HYPE，直接复用 Hyperliquid 全套核心系统！技术门槛→资本 + 预言机设计门槛，市场创建秒变标准化链上操作🔑 逻辑重构：市场 =「市场 + 预言机 + 需求」！建设者不用死磕技术，盯紧需求 + 锚定预言机就能开新局📈 资产边界炸裂：从传统 “肥头资产”→股权 / 现实数据集 “厚中段”→房价 / 文化趋势 “长尾利基”，链上全搞定💥 终极颠覆：DEX 从 “技术内卷” 变 “需求挖掘 PvE”，增长天花板直接掀翻！$BTC

As 2025 comes to a close, many people begin to ask: has the meme craze passed? In my opinion, the answer is no—2026 will still be a year full of opportunities.
LetsBonk and the Bonk family are gaining popularity by lowering participation barriers, allowing more people to keep up with the trend. There are no shortcuts to seizing opportunities in 2026; the core is two points:
Observe more: Keep a close eye on the dynamics of quality platforms, pay attention to relatable meme symbols, and anticipate market sentiment in advance;
Maintain a calm mindset: The meme market is highly volatile, chasing highs and selling lows can lead to losses, and good opportunities are reserved for those who can remain patient. The Bonk craze may fade, but the stories in the meme circle continue, and I hope we can all seize opportunities in 2026. $BTC #比特币流动性

📊 Today's Market: No Waves, Holding Steady + Slight Adjustments～
Short-term trading difficult? Then don't do it! 😎 Ordinary people recklessly challenge the main force with a fully automated quantitative system, purely using short boards to collide with long boards —— Overestimating oneself!
⏳ But over a longer period, and by increasing trading levels, the gap is directly smoothed out: the power of time + trend can hedge all technical advantages. The main force hates "sticky candy-style" positions —— if you can hold on and don't fidget, they have no way to deal with you! Old sayings: When the market is chaotic, "not moving" is the optimal solution～$BTC #美国非农数据超预期

🔥The Truth About Making Money in Crypto: Winning by Going Against Human Nature, Not by "Reading the Market"!
💸 The Human Trap When Floating Profits: When accounts are in the green, people panic, thinking about “locking in profits first”? Afraid profits will fly away, they take early profits and miss out on doubling scenarios — this is a common issue for 90% of retail investors!
📉 The Deadly Madness in Adverse Conditions: Holding onto a wrong position stubbornly turns one into a “gambler,” always thinking “just hold on a bit longer for a reversal,” getting deeper and deeper into losses, ultimately turning small losses into big ones!
✨ The Core Philosophy of the Old Hands: Those who can make big money are not the ones who “see the market most accurately,” but those who can overcome human nature: ✅ Daring to add positions when profits are floating, letting profits run; ✅ Quickly cutting losses when wrong, never dragging it out. The crypto market switches between bull and bear rapidly; only by maintaining discipline and acting against human nature can one eat well during fluctuations and survive during pullbacks! $BTC #比特币流动性

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, makes a significant statement: Bitcoin is unlikely to become a favorite of central banks
According to Foresight News, Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, recently shared his significant views on Bitcoin's positioning and the outlook for institutional holdings during a podcast, drawing market attention.
Dalio first clarified Bitcoin's core attributes: "Bitcoin is a special form of money, and its limited supply characteristic makes it seen by many as a store of wealth." However, he then pointed out the core controversy—central banks and numerous other institutions are unlikely to hold Bitcoin in large amounts.
Three key obstacles make institutions hesitant about Bitcoin
Traceability of transactions: Bitcoin's transaction records are publicly accessible, which contradicts the core need for fund privacy by some institutions (especially central banks);
Risk of government intervention: As a decentralized asset, Bitcoin's existence conflicts with the financial regulatory frameworks of certain countries, facing potential restrictions and controls;
Technical security risks: Blockchain technology is not absolutely secure, with the possibility of being hacked or subjected to cyberattacks, which poses significant risks for institutions seeking asset stability.
Dalio offers investment advice: Diversify with gold and alternative currencies as a hedge
For individual investors, Dalio provides clear allocation advice: "I recommend that individuals allocate 5%-15% of their funds in their investment portfolios to gold or other alternative currencies, using this diversification to hedge against market risks." $BTC $ETH #比特币波动性

📊Weekly RSI hides secrets! Signals completely different from 2018/2022 have appeared～
🔥Common bullish divergence: price makes a low + indicator rises → selling pressure weakens, like a car running out of gas and needing to stop✨Hidden bullish divergence (trend continuation signal): price pullback low point rises + indicator lower → deep consolidation rather than a breakdown!
This is a game of "speed without yielding the path": emotionally hitting extreme panic at Z-Score -2, but the price hits the RVWAP cost support and remains unmoved～just like a tightly compressed spring, the more you compress it, the greater the elasticity!
The subtext is very straightforward: no matter how bad the sentiment is, it won't smash the low-price opportunity. It seems weak but is actually accumulating strength; this wave of structural resilience hides a big story💪$BTC

🌊 After the rise of the digital asset market, it often retraces to the "golden pocket" range of 0.618-0.65!
This is not a mysterious magnetic field, but a battleground for bulls: some people take profits, while others step in. The key characteristics are very clear — the price touches but does not break the previous low, the trend structure remains intact, and essentially it is a signal of a "healthy retracement"📶
The core is not the numbers, but the price structure: ❌ If the previous low is broken, moving averages turn, and funds withdraw, then even the perfect 0.618 is just an illusion; ✅ If support is solid, retracement is mild, and it just happens to fall within the golden pocket, it is a good setup for stop-loss and profit-loss ratio!
In the buffer zone of the trend, structure is more important than numbers～$BTC #比特币流动性

Recently, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin have once again attracted market attention. Over the past month, Bitcoin's performance has been significantly influenced by the macroeconomic environment, especially changes in Federal Reserve policies and fluctuations in other related economic indicators. As investors have become more vigilant about potential risks, Bitcoin has failed to break through the psychological barrier of $92,000, with prices continuing to hover around the low of nearly $90,000. $BTC

5 Times Daily Line Oversold Review Summary
Core Conclusion: In the past 5 oversold scenarios, core currencies provided positive feedback to the oversold signals; at the current position, the price is likely to respect this signal, but it's important to clarify that the nature of the signal ≠ trend reversal.
1. Review of the past 5 oversold scenarios
Starting point for rise
Continuation of rise
Fluctuation rebound
Technical rebound after breaking
Repair near previous low
Key Reminders:
1. Respecting oversold signals ≠ trend reversal! The current rise is closer to the 4th and 5th scenarios—rebounds within a structural decline, not reversals.
2. Conditions for reassessing market nature: effective breakthrough of key resistance levels + turning of moving averages, both are indispensable.
3. Prior to this, the rise should only be seen as a rebound, and the operational mindset remains unchanged. $BTC #比特币流动性

📊Major macroeconomic signals! The U.S. November economic data has been released, with inflation and unemployment rates both exceeding expectations, adding new variables to interest rate cut expectations～
Inflation "cooling down": The U.S. inflation rate in November is far lower than economists predicted, significantly easing price pressures, and experts determine that the space for a significant rebound is limited;
Unemployment rate unexpectedly rising: The job market shows slight loosening, with the unemployment rate climbing compared to before, becoming a key variable affecting policy direction;
Interest rate cut expectations heating up: Manulife's investment chief candidly stated that if the unemployment rate continues to rise by 0.1% each month, the market may underestimate the space for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year (even if the federal government shutdown leads to some data distortion).
For assets like "big cakes," macro liquidity is one of the core influencing factors, and subsequent employment data and Federal Reserve policy trends need to be closely monitored～$BTC #美国非农数据超预期

According to BlockBeats, on December 19, the crypto data analysis firm CryptoQuant released key data on social media, clearly indicating that the current demand surge for Bitcoin is gradually fading.
Data shows that Bitcoin has experienced three waves of spot demand during this market cycle, and the latest wave of demand has shown signs of winding down. Notably, since the beginning of October, actual demand for Bitcoin has remained below the trend line, failing to meet market expectations.
CryptoQuant emphasizes that the continued weakness on the demand side typically exerts direct pressure on asset prices. The current state of Bitcoin demand being below trend may further intensify its downward price pressure, and the market may face a phase of adjustment in the short term. $BTC

From the regularity of the trend, BCH has been the most 'obedient' one in the past four months. Oversold leads to a rebound, overbought leads to a drop, the structure is clear, with a process of ups and downs.

Looking at the price structure, compared to Bitcoin, BCH is one of the few varieties that can still strengthen against the trend, and the price has returned to the highs of October.

In this context, adding the weekly level breakthrough warning signals, #BCH is not just a short-term observation but a subject worth continuous tracking.

If it can effectively break through the two key positions of 650 and 730, the market has the opportunity to switch from oscillation to a true unilateral structure.

*The operation of the coin that rises against the trend is difficult, and its sustainability and smoothness are hard to quantify objectively.

*There will also be low-risk buying points, but at this moment, BCH is at the structural high point, not a buying point. $BTC #比特币流动性

Japan's major decisions on monetary policy have become a direct catalyst. The rise in the yen conveys positive economic signals, and global markets have reacted enthusiastically, with the cryptocurrency industry being no exception. As capital inflows increase, the cryptocurrency market shows clear signs of recovery, accompanied by a surge in token trading volumes. For example, LIGHT's daily increase even surpassed 70%, and SOPH also rose by 40%.
This optimistic market trend is widely interpreted as being positively influenced by Japan's shift in interest rate policy, demonstrating the flexibility of crypto assets in responding to macroeconomic changes. Market sentiment has also significantly improved, with FOMO emotions rapidly spreading among traders, driving overall market overheating. $BTC #ETH走势分析

💸【Macroeconomic Easing Signals + Asset Trend Observation】📊
1️⃣ Federal Reserve RMP Mechanism = Invisible QE?! Officially defined as "Reserve Management Tool", but essentially a logic of liquidity injection — market easing expectations are rising, fiat purchasing power is under long-term pressure, and alternative asset tracks are welcoming structural benefits～
2️⃣ Mainstream Alternative Asset Trend Projection📈✅ Short-term: $80,000-$100,000 range consolidation✅ Medium-term: After a deepening of understanding, it is expected to return to the key level of $124,000, pushing toward higher ranges✅ Time Window: Around March next year or at this stage of emotional peak, the core support level is likely to remain above $124,000
3️⃣ ⚠️ Fund movements conceal mysteries! Amidst a bullish market, a sudden transfer of $1.5 million level digital assets to leading asset management institutions is interpreted as a precursor to reallocation adjustments～ The big players "speak inconsistently", hiding caution towards volatility beneath apparent optimism!
💡 Core Reminder: Alternative assets are highly volatile, and related investments are not protected by domestic laws, posing extremely high risks! The above is merely a market dynamics observation and does not constitute any investment advice～$BTC

🔥Annual ETF Reversal! BlackRock's IBIT becomes the only negative return dark horse, yet attracts 25 billion in funds? Deep Tide TechFlow latest news📢 Bloomberg analysts showcase the top 25 US stock ETFs by fund inflow:
BlackRock's "Bitcoin" ETF (IBIT) stands out — annual return - 9.59%, surprisingly the only one among the top 25 with a negative return; fund inflows defy the trend! It ranks sixth in inflow volume, crushing the 64% return of the gold ETF (GLD); bear market has absorbed over 25 billion USD, this operation is a classic example of "buying more as it drops" ~
Behind the seemingly contradictory situation lies the logic of smart money's layout: bear markets can accumulate huge capital ammunition, and once the market warms up, the explosive potential of IBIT may exceed expectations💥 The choice made by capital through voting with their feet may indeed be a recognition of the long-term value of "Bitcoin"?
$BTC #比特币流动性

The essence of stablecoins has never been about being "non-volatile", but rather finding a balance between security, liquidity, and yield.

In the current market, there are not many that can clearly provide returns.
Huobi also synchronously offers the latest $U, with an APY directly at 20%, clear returns, and transparent rules.

Stablecoins are not meant for storytelling; they are meant to outpace the cost of time! $BTC $