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$ETH 2025-12-17, yesterday the non-farm payroll data was released and it was relatively positive but still flat. Yesterday there were hundreds of thousands of ETH buy orders between 3000-2900, which should have led to a price surge, but currently it hasn't started a rally. It feels more like the bulls have run out of steam and are just luring in more buyers to gather fuel. Considering the larger cycle, I have been worried that the decline trend of the 3-day moving average is about to be confirmed. If the 3-day moving average downtrend is confirmed, it is highly likely to break below 2620 and continue a deep correction trend, with the next target at 2250 and the ultimate goal around 1800-1600. If it can effectively stop the decline, it should be the bottom of the next upward cycle. To break this downtrend, it needs to violently surge above 3345 in the next two days and stabilize, but I personally feel that this is difficult to achieve, as the current position is not like the previous one. If the current position breaks through 3345 and stabilizes, it would have already broken the upper boundary of the descending channel, breaking this downtrend, which is possible, but the likelihood is really low.
Summary: Today's strategy is relatively easy to execute; do not trade during the consolidation, just prepare to position after the consolidation is broken.
Bullish Strategy: Strong support below at 2850-2800 with 500 million buy orders. If it first moves south to around 2800 and consumes the liquidity, getting support and then quickly rebounds with volume to break through 3045-3100-3165-3345 and stabilize, it would officially break this downtrend and start a bullish trend. If the upward momentum is not strong, and it moves in a volatile upward manner, it may reach 3045-3145-3210, where it will encounter resistance and begin to decline again. You can place limit sell orders at these points for phased profit-taking, keeping a portion for a potential breakout. If it truly breaks through 3345 and stabilizes, then wait for a pullback to add to your position.
Bearish Strategy: Observe resistance levels at 3045-3145-3165-3210-3310-3345 for potential shorts. Strong resistance above at the 3000 level, but primarily formed by a single order, so it's likely that this order will be withdrawn, allowing for a breakout. Therefore, just monitor the order book at the 3000 level. If the order is suddenly withdrawn, it means a breakout above 3000 is likely. If this order does not get withdrawn and is instead eaten away little by little, and repeatedly fails to break through 3000, then 3020-3045 may be the top. You can wait for a pin bar to short, placing the stop loss at the top. If the stop loss is hit, then watch and try to short again at the top.
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Summary: Today's strategy is relatively easy to execute; do not trade during the consolidation, just prepare to position after the consolidation is broken.
Bullish Strategy: Strong support below at 2850-2800 with 500 million buy orders. If it first moves south to around 2800 and consumes the liquidity, getting support and then quickly rebounds with volume to break through 3045-3100-3165-3345 and stabilize, it would officially break this downtrend and start a bullish trend. If the upward momentum is not strong, and it moves in a volatile upward manner, it may reach 3045-3145-3210, where it will encounter resistance and begin to decline again. You can place limit sell orders at these points for phased profit-taking, keeping a portion for a potential breakout. If it truly breaks through 3345 and stabilizes, then wait for a pullback to add to your position.
Bearish Strategy: Observe resistance levels at 3045-3145-3165-3210-3310-3345 for potential shorts. Strong resistance above at the 3000 level, but primarily formed by a single order, so it's likely that this order will be withdrawn, allowing for a breakout. Therefore, just monitor the order book at the 3000 level. If the order is suddenly withdrawn, it means a breakout above 3000 is likely. If this order does not get withdrawn and is instead eaten away little by little, and repeatedly fails to break through 3000, then 3020-3045 may be the top. You can wait for a pin bar to short, placing the stop loss at the top. If the stop loss is hit, then watch and try to short again at the top.
{future}(ETHUSDT)
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The Federal Reserve has long issued warnings: Officials predict that the unemployment rate will reach a peak of 4.5%. Powell has explicitly stated that the job market is under pressure, and job creation may have already fallen into negative growth. The current job market is deeply mired in a "low hiring, low firing" stalemate, with young job seekers bearing the brunt, as over half of employers have given negative reviews for the job market for the 2026 graduating class. Experts generally believe that an aging population and immigration restrictions are continuing to tighten labor supply, and monthly job growth is likely to remain low!
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The market has already rehearsed the pain: In July, Japan raised interest rates, leading to a single-day plunge of 23% in Bitcoin, with an overall liquidation of 20 billion. Although some pricing has already been set, the hidden leverage bombs are still ticking. The area is considered a "high-risk zone"; DeFi is filled with borrowing leverage. Bitcoin at 85,000 is a key defense line; although BNB is relatively stable, if the market collapses, it will be difficult for it to remain unscathed.
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Time is running out for the cryptocurrency world... Powell is about to launch an attack!
Everyone should not think that a rate cut means everything is fine; what will be even more terrifying is Powell's speech. This rate cut can be said to have been forced, as Powell previously stated he did not wish to cut rates. Therefore, after the rate cut at 3 AM on Thursday, Powell will give a speech at 3:30 AM, which is likely to be extremely hawkish, paving the way for not cutting rates next time, and it will scare the market.
Everyone should not think that a rate cut means everything is fine; what will be even more terrifying is Powell's speech. This rate cut can be said to have been forced, as Powell previously stated he did not wish to cut rates. Therefore, after the rate cut at 3 AM on Thursday, Powell will give a speech at 3:30 AM, which is likely to be extremely hawkish, paving the way for not cutting rates next time, and it will scare the market.
分析师舒琴
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Time for the cryptocurrency market is running out... Powell is about to launch an attack!
Don't think that a rate cut means everything is fine; the more terrifying part will be Powell's speech. This rate cut can be said to have been forced; Powell previously stated he did not wish to cut rates, so after the rate cut at 3 AM on Thursday, Powell will deliver a speech at 3:30 AM, likely very hawkish, paving the way for not cutting rates next time, which will scare the market.
Because after next week's rate cut, the interest rate will reach the neutral rate of 3.5%, not much different from historically normal rates, and it no longer counts as a restrictive rate. In contrast, inflation is still rising, already at 3%, far above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, and the economy remains relatively strong, so the Federal Reserve actually has no reason to continue cutting rates, which has also been Powell's earlier viewpoint.
Therefore, I expect that after next week's rate cut, the market may start to plummet rapidly and undergo a correction for a while; everyone should be well-prepared. Personally, I am positioning myself with double long positions on high, and coupled with the bearish market environment, I believe the odds are greatly in my favor. If you prefer to be cautious, then do not trade; just wait to buy the dip after next year's crash, because the situation will start to improve in the second half of next year, and Trump will appoint a new chairperson to implement aggressive rate cuts, then the water will come, and the market will start to rise, potentially entering a major upward cycle lasting 3-5 years.
So the next six months can be said to be the darkness before dawn; the bull market is just tired, taking a half-year vacation, and in the second half of next year will return to work. Everyone stay alert, and let's work together with Benqin to navigate this market and rewrite our destiny!
Don't think that a rate cut means everything is fine; the more terrifying part will be Powell's speech. This rate cut can be said to have been forced; Powell previously stated he did not wish to cut rates, so after the rate cut at 3 AM on Thursday, Powell will deliver a speech at 3:30 AM, likely very hawkish, paving the way for not cutting rates next time, which will scare the market.
Because after next week's rate cut, the interest rate will reach the neutral rate of 3.5%, not much different from historically normal rates, and it no longer counts as a restrictive rate. In contrast, inflation is still rising, already at 3%, far above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, and the economy remains relatively strong, so the Federal Reserve actually has no reason to continue cutting rates, which has also been Powell's earlier viewpoint.
Therefore, I expect that after next week's rate cut, the market may start to plummet rapidly and undergo a correction for a while; everyone should be well-prepared. Personally, I am positioning myself with double long positions on high, and coupled with the bearish market environment, I believe the odds are greatly in my favor. If you prefer to be cautious, then do not trade; just wait to buy the dip after next year's crash, because the situation will start to improve in the second half of next year, and Trump will appoint a new chairperson to implement aggressive rate cuts, then the water will come, and the market will start to rise, potentially entering a major upward cycle lasting 3-5 years.
So the next six months can be said to be the darkness before dawn; the bull market is just tired, taking a half-year vacation, and in the second half of next year will return to work. Everyone stay alert, and let's work together with Benqin to navigate this market and rewrite our destiny!
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Those peers who try to create a rhythm should save their effort 😅 After so many years of surfing the internet, I've seen all kinds of tricks.
Those peers trying to stir the pot should save their energy 😅 After so many years of surfing the internet, I've seen all kinds of tricks.
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The only proper path for small capital to achieve big gains: Grow steadily, rather than heavily betting
It requires not a one-time windfall, but continuity and stability.
Give up the fantasy of getting rich overnight, treat trading as a "weekly way to earn some pocket money" production line project, do not be greedy, do not take risks, and you will find that "slow is fast".
Many people stumble on the idea of "always wanting to earn more", resulting in profits being given back and even losses, while preserving small profits and allowing compound interest to slowly ferment is the shortcut for small capital to turn around.
It requires not a one-time windfall, but continuity and stability.
Give up the fantasy of getting rich overnight, treat trading as a "weekly way to earn some pocket money" production line project, do not be greedy, do not take risks, and you will find that "slow is fast".
Many people stumble on the idea of "always wanting to earn more", resulting in profits being given back and even losses, while preserving small profits and allowing compound interest to slowly ferment is the shortcut for small capital to turn around.
K图先生
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Bullish
The only correct path for small capital to achieve big gains: develop steadily, rather than making heavy bets.
It requires not a single profit, but continuity and stability.
Give up the fantasy of becoming rich overnight, treat trading as a routine project of 'earning some pocket money every week', do not be greedy or reckless, and you will find that 'slow is fast'.
Many people fall into the trap of 'always wanting to earn more', resulting in profits being given back and even losses, while holding onto small profits and allowing compounding to gradually ferment is the shortcut for small capital to turn around.
It requires not a single profit, but continuity and stability.
Give up the fantasy of becoming rich overnight, treat trading as a routine project of 'earning some pocket money every week', do not be greedy or reckless, and you will find that 'slow is fast'.
Many people fall into the trap of 'always wanting to earn more', resulting in profits being given back and even losses, while holding onto small profits and allowing compounding to gradually ferment is the shortcut for small capital to turn around.
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Empty
Everyone can take a look at the daily candlestick chart of Ethereum's history; there has never been a bull market that started with just two days of increase followed by a drop. A bull market at least needs to rise for three consecutive days to start.
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Ah
All positions have been closed, with a total loss of around five hundred thousand US dollars for this bird coin #giggle , and the demon coin BOB#Bob has lost nearly eighty thousand US dollars, and I need to close the Binance contract #币安合约锦标赛 , and quit gambling for a while.
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Brothers, did you get to eat this meat? Every time it reaches my opening price, it just goes down.
Brothers, did you get some meat this time? Every time it gets to my opening price, it goes down.
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Next time in a bull market, will you be a bystander or a participant?
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Family, I ran away! Ethereum target reached, ready to short? Let's take a look.
分析师舒琴
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Family, I’m out! Ethereum target achieved, ready to short? Let’s take a look.
Due to the interest rate cut and strong demand from the Ethereum upgrade, ETF funds have surged in, and indeed the crypto market has risen quite a bit these days. Shuqin has never been bearish until today when ETH reached my target price near 3250! I have already taken profits on my short-term positions and started to lay out long-term short positions.
I first allocated 20% of my position near 3220, and plan to put the remaining position near 3400, or to fully short a day or two before the interest rate cut. Gradual entry is more stable; I don't seek to short at the very top, I'm just satisfied shorting at a relatively high position.
I first allocated 20% of my position near 3220, and plan to put the remaining position near 3400, or to fully short a day or two before the interest rate cut. Gradual entry is more stable; I don't seek to short at the very top, I'm just satisfied shorting at a relatively high position.
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Double Twelve bottom fishing?
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BlackRock ETFs are increasing their holdings daily, and the big players are already preparing for the next wave of floods. 2026 is not the end, but the beginning of a reshuffling of asset allocation. The Federal Reserve has shifted from a chokehold to pushing up, gold has reached new highs, tech stocks are soaring, and Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing continuous net inflows, which is the main course.
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If the Federal Reserve continues to sell government bonds like crazy, the government's borrowing costs will skyrocket...
Taking a pause now also gives the Treasury a way out.
For the market, this is a short-term positive:
The tightest liquidity has passed, and risk assets can catch their breath.
But don't celebrate too early— the balance sheet size is still nearly $2 trillion higher than before the pandemic, not much water has been removed.
Taking a pause now also gives the Treasury a way out.
For the market, this is a short-term positive:
The tightest liquidity has passed, and risk assets can catch their breath.
But don't celebrate too early— the balance sheet size is still nearly $2 trillion higher than before the pandemic, not much water has been removed.
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Get up
The horn of counterattack has been sounded, seeing 3100👊
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Cow
The real bull market is in 26 years, don't fall before dawn!
I am increasingly convinced that we are standing at a historic turning point - this is not the end of a bull market, but the beginning of a super bull market.来直播间寻找潜力币
Recently, when the market broke below 81000, many friends were asking the same question: 'At what position should we sell?' 98000? 108000? Or higher? But I want to counter: Why must we sell?
After deep contemplation, I have reached a conclusion that may overturn traditional understanding: the so-called 'Bitcoin four-year cycle' may just be a misunderstanding, and the real driving force has always been liquidity. This time, the Federal Reserve's strong policies have forcibly delayed the market that was supposed to come.
Recently, when the market broke below 81000, many friends were asking the same question: 'At what position should we sell?' 98000? 108000? Or higher? But I want to counter: Why must we sell?
After deep contemplation, I have reached a conclusion that may overturn traditional understanding: the so-called 'Bitcoin four-year cycle' may just be a misunderstanding, and the real driving force has always been liquidity. This time, the Federal Reserve's strong policies have forcibly delayed the market that was supposed to come.
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BlackRock controls about 10% of circulating ETH, and its actions shake the market
· Don't blindly follow large on-chain transfers, they may just be ETF settlements
· Even Vitalik is worried, fearing that it could manipulate the protocol with its large holdings, and 'decentralization' might become a mere talk.
· Don't blindly follow large on-chain transfers, they may just be ETF settlements
· Even Vitalik is worried, fearing that it could manipulate the protocol with its large holdings, and 'decentralization' might become a mere talk.
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Thought the end of interest rate cuts was bad news? Wrong! This is when true skills are tested! Over the past six months, retail investors have been lying in wait for a surge in prices from interest rate cuts, but now the central bank has suddenly 'laid flat', and the market is finally returning to the most primitive jungle law—strong eat the weak, and the weak get cut. Those who rely on news to trade cryptocurrencies will soon be crying and wishing to exit.
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The market always selects those who are patient, just as gold shines with value through the sediment of time. The core appeal of gold has never been the short-term speculative profits, but rather the preservation of value and peace of mind that transcends cycles. It acts like a 'ballast' in an asset portfolio, steadily supporting your wealth during stock market fluctuations and currency depreciation. Those who withstand volatility, hold firmly, and even rationally add to their positions during pullbacks are not those who fear risk.
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