币圈慢思考Joe

Encrypted Morning Report｜2026/03/31

$BTC $67,825, 24H +1.81%
$ETH $2,073.27, 24H +3.18%
$SOL $83.67, 24H +1.25%

👉 Major coins rebound slightly, market sentiment remains cautious, and funds continue to seek new narratives around institutional allocation differentiation, payment implementation, and on-chain infrastructure.

Headline News
1. CoinShares has filed for three Bitcoin volatility ETFs.

2. Square has defaulted to enable Bitcoin payments for millions of U.S. merchants and automatically convert to USD.

3. ETH funds saw an outflow of $222 million last week, with digital asset funds totaling an outflow of $414 million.

4. BitMine increased its holdings by 71,179 ETH last week, valued at approximately $146 million.

5. The Ethereum Foundation has staked another 22,517 ETH, valued at approximately $46.2 million.

6. MARA previously sold 15,133 BTC, cashing out approximately $1.1 billion for debt buybacks.

7. CoinShares research states that nearly half of the BTC supply is currently in a state of unrealized losses.

Classic Oscillation Market Trading Strategy (as shown) 👇

* When trading in oscillating markets, it is important to note that if there isn't a true breakthrough and stabilization, treat it as a false breakthrough. Repeatedly trade the high and low points within the range until there is a real breakthrough (profiting multiple times is worth losing once);

Be cautious of market makers' liquidity extraction — a common mistake retail investors make is being repeatedly spiked, which affects their mindset.

In an upward trend market, it is often unclear how to enter. EMA21 and EMA55 can help determine the entry point.

For a more aggressive approach, one can enter when the price dips and touches EMA21;
For a more conservative approach, one can wait for the price to retrace and touch EMA55 to enter.

Note that this is applicable in trend markets.

Encrypted Morning Report 2026/3/30

$BTC $66,548.72，-0.5%
$ETH $2,007.68， +0.3%
$SOL $82.52， +0.4%

Mainstream coins continue to fluctuate, BTC repeatedly saw-saw around $66,000, and the market is still digesting selling pressure and cautious sentiment.

Headline News
1. Bitfinex's Bitcoin long position has risen to 79,343 BTC, reaching a new high in 28 months.

2. ETH net issuance over the past 30 days has increased by approximately 81,790 coins, bringing the total supply of Ethereum to 121,570,566 ETH, with a current annual supply growth rate of about 0.82%.

3. A certain whale transferred 3,246 ETH to an exchange, drawing market attention to potential selling pressure.

5. In the past 24 hours, CEX saw a net inflow of approximately 6,033 BTC, with short-term selling pressure still accumulating.

6. This week will see several large unlocks, with SUI unlocking about 42.94 million coins on April 1, EIGEN unlocking about 36.82 million coins, and ENA unlocking about 40.63 million coins.

6. El Salvador's Bitcoin strategic reserves have increased to 7,605 BTC.

7. Worldcoin-related addresses have transferred another 75 million WLD, with the market paying attention to circulation and selling pressure effects.

Crypto Morning Report | 2026/03/27

$BTC $68,988, 24H -3.15%;
$ETH $2,072.24, 24H -4.24%;
$SOL $86.82, 24H -5.38%.

👉Mainstream coins surged and then fell back, BTC dropped below $70,000, and the market faced short-term pressure from the Middle East situation, rising interest rate expectations, and a decline in risk appetite before the expiration of large BTC options.

Headline News
1. CoinShares applies for a Bitcoin volatility ETF product group. The product will track the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index.

2. Approximately $15 billion in BTC options will expire on Friday at Deribit.

3. The U.S. "CLARITY Act" continues to evolve around the "stablecoin yield" clause. Citi believes that the related restrictions may temporarily hinder USDC circulation, but will not harm Circle's core revenue.

5. David Sacks resigns from his position as White House AI and crypto chief.

6. Today's market pullback saw approximately $330 million in liquidations across the network, with long positions accounting for about $290 million.

7. The Worldcoin team continues to transfer 89.65 million WLD to a new address and then to CEX.

8. MARA sold 15,133 BTC in March, cashing out approximately $1.1 billion for debt buybacks.

Crypto Morning Briefing | 2026/03/26

$BTC $71,250, +1.48%
$ETH $2,175, +1.49%
$SOL $91, +1.53%

👉Major cryptocurrencies rebounded slightly, with BTC still under pressure around $72,000. The market continues to oscillate between regulatory benefits, institutional progress, and weak on-chain demand.

Top News
1. Franklin Templeton partners with Ondo to launch tokenized ETFs that can be traded 24/7 in crypto wallets, covering US stocks, fixed income, and gold.

2. Interactive Brokers now allows clients to transfer assets such as BTC, ETH, and SOL from external wallets or platforms to linked crypto accounts.

3. BTC continues to be pressured below $72,000, with four on-chain indicators showing weakening demand.

4. The controversy surrounding the US Clarity Act focuses on "stablecoin yields," potentially impacting stablecoin business models and platform distribution logic.

5. Circle is under pressure due to expectations regarding stablecoin yield terms, but Bitwise remains optimistic about its long-term valuation.

6. Approximately $15 billion in BTC options will expire on Deribit on Friday; weekend volatility is worth noting.

7. Bitcoin ATM operator Bitcoin Depot appoints a new chairman and CEO and projects a revenue decline of approximately 30% in 2026.

Encrypted Morning Report | 2026/03/25

$BTC $70,648.43, 24H +0.2%;
$ETH $2,157.64, 24H +0.9%;
$SOL $91.14, 24H +0.8%.

👉 The overall trend of mainstream coins is weak but stabilizing, with BTC, ETH, and SOL experiencing slight rebounds. The market's main focus remains on 'regulatory details + stablecoin transparency + traditional finance on-chain + Solana institutionalization.'

Headlines
1. Tether announced that it has signed with a 'Big Four' accounting firm to advance its first complete audit. This is an important signal for transparency in the stablecoin industry and may continue to enhance the discussion around USDT reserve disclosures.

2. The state of Delaware in the United States has proposed the 'Delaware Payment Stablecoin Act' bill. This bill aims to establish a licensing, reserve, custody, and disclosure framework for issuers of payment stablecoins, indicating that state-level regulation of stablecoins in the U.S. is accelerating and becoming more detailed.

3. The CFTC has established an Innovation Task Force covering Crypto, AI, and Prediction Markets. This indicates that the U.S. derivatives regulatory agency is attempting to create a clearer regulatory framework for emerging sectors.

4. The Solana Foundation has launched the Solana Developer Platform (SDP). Initial partners include Mastercard, Worldpay, and Western Union, focusing on stablecoin settlement, merchant payments, and cross-border payments, further heating up the narrative of institutional adoption of Solana.

5. NYSE has partnered with Securitize to advance the tokenized securities platform. The further integration of traditional finance and on-chain infrastructure continues to heat up the RWA/tokenized securities sector.

6. Bernstein believes that BTC has likely reached a temporary bottom and maintains its target of $150,000 by the end of 2026. The core logic is based on ETF resilience, expanded institutional entry, and supply absorption driven by continuous buying strategies.

6. Australia's large pension fund Hostplus is considering offering Bitcoin/crypto asset investment options to its members. If implemented, it means further acceptance of crypto assets by retirement funds.

Currently, my selected investment coins (until the next bull market)

1/ $HYPE — Leading futures DEX
Hyperliquid is capturing the volume of CEX. HYPE captures this value.

2/ $ZEC — Leading privacy coin
Regulatory pressure has made everyone forget: privacy is a basic right. ZEC is still doing the best.

3/ $TAO — AI coin with real use cases
Not the kind of "AI empowerment" marketing rhetoric. It's a true machine learning market.

4/ $VIRTUAL — AI Agent infrastructure
The agent is the next big narrative. This is a bet on infrastructure.

5/ $AAVE — Leading lending protocol
Survived FTX, Terra, and everything. DeFi blue chip.

Last 7 days increase:
XRP, ADA, DOGE and others rose over 10% ——— Outperforming BTC
$XRP : +11.57%
$ADA : +11.27%
$DOGE : +10.26%
$ETH: +9.35%
$BTC: +6.41%

Altcoins outperform BTC, risk appetite is healthy. But we know that when BTC sneezes, altcoins catch pneumonia.

If BTC retraces to $68K (worse case $64.7K), these gains might disappear quickly.

Today's Crypto Morning Report 3/24

📈 Market Data
$BTC $70,478 +3.36%
$ETH $2,137 +3.86%
$SOL $90.37 +4.25%

👉 The situation in Iran has eased + CME gap filled, risk appetite has fully rebounded, altcoins are leading the rally.

📰 Headline News
1️⃣ The situation in Iran has eased, Trump calls it "very good negotiations". Trump stated on Monday that US-Iran negotiations will "continue throughout this week" and said Iran "wants to reach an agreement". The 48-hour military threat deadline has passed without action, with Pakistan acting as the mediator. Market risk appetite has significantly rebounded.

2️⃣ BTC recovers $70K, CME gap successfully filled. BTC rebounded from the weekend low of $68,200 to $70,478, an increase of 3.36%. The CME futures gap around $70,000 has been successfully filled, with the next resistance level at $72,000-$75,000. The technical outlook is positive, but $75K still needs to be confirmed for a breakthrough.

3️⃣ Altcoins are generally rising, XRP/ADA leads with over 11% in 7 days. Increased risk appetite has shifted funds from BTC to altcoins. XRP is up +11.57% in 7 days, ADA +11.27%, DOGE +10.26%, ETH +9.35%. Signals of an altcoin season are emerging, but caution is needed as if BTC corrects, altcoins usually experience larger declines.

4️⃣ Market sentiment recovers after $400 million liquidation over the weekend. More than $400 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with $280 million being long positions, marking the largest scale of long liquidation since February 25. The liquidation has cleared excessive leverage, and the market is now on a healthier upward foundation. Fear & Greed has risen from 8 to 30-40.

5️⃣ Gold falls from January highs, dollar strengthens. Gold and silver have fallen from January record highs, partly confirming speculative buying. The dollar index DXY has returned above 100, supported by inflation concerns and the Fed pausing interest rate cuts. BTC's short-term performance resembles that of risk assets, with increased correlation to US stocks.

6️⃣ ETH approaches resistance at $2,154; if it breaks through, $998 million in short positions will be liquidated. ETH is currently at $2,137, close to the key resistance of $2,154. If it breaks through, cumulative short liquidations could reach $998 million. Support is at $1,951; if it falls below this, it will liquidate $537 million in long positions. Volatility is rising, presenting both trading opportunities and risks.

Crypto Morning Report 3/21

$BTC $70,719 (+0.50% 24h)
$ETH $2,155 (+0.10% 24h)
$SOL $90.04 (+0.76% 24h)

👉 The market is consolidating, BTC holds $70K, ETH shows strength on the weekly chart; the regulatory shift is the main theme for 2026, with short-term macro pressures.

Headlines:
1. Trump SEC withdraws major crypto case
Ripple, Binance, Coinbase cases all dismissed. New chairman Paul Atkins leads the shift from "enforcement" to "consultation".

2. Kalshi raises $1 billion with a valuation of $22 billion
Valuation doubled in three months (led by Coatue). The prediction market sector remains hot.

3. Morgan Stanley applies for Bitcoin ETF
Code MSBT, seed capital of $1 million. Traditional finance continues to enter the market.

4. Senate crypto bill reaches compromise
Stablecoin yield provisions breakthrough, moving to the hearing stage.

5. Coinbase launches perpetual futures for stocks
Non-US users, 10x leverage, 24/7 trading, settled in USDC.

6. Geopolitical situation drives Hyperliquid oil trading
Iran-Israel tensions; JPMorgan reports that 24/7 derivatives become a hedging tool.

This morning I looked at a wave of layoffs data in the crypto industry,
As shown in the picture, various exchanges and project parties are laying off employees, and other exchanges that have not announced layoffs have also done so to some extent this year.

The wave of layoffs has also spread from crypto projects to crypto exchanges, which are at the core of resource aggregation.

This round of layoffs is fundamentally different from the wave in 2022—at that time, FTX, BlockFi, Celsius, and 3AC went directly bankrupt. This time, the average layoff rate is between 25-30%, more like "optimization", not "unable to sustain".
Many companies use "AI automation" as an excuse... in fact, it is due to declining revenue.

If layoffs can be considered an indicator of the bear market, is the market now at the bottom area of "surrender"? Or is there a bigger bomb yet to explode?

📰Today's Morning Report 3/20

$BTC $70,071 (-1.51%)
$ETH $2,151 (-3.8%)
$SOL $140 (-5.2%)
$XRP $2.10 (-4.1%)
$BNB $638.84 (-3.5%)
U.S. Stocks: Dow -0.4% | S&P -0.28% | Nasdaq -0.28%

👉BTC rebound fails + whale sell-off + 400 million liquidations = deleveraging phase; but ETH sees 220 million whale bottom fishing — capital rotation signal appears.

Headlines
1️⃣SEC regulatory shift
SEC Chair: New crypto rules "are just the beginning". Shifting from enforcement-led to rule-led. The first systemic framework in a decade.

2️⃣BTC whale sell-off
Early wallets sell another 1,000 BTC ($71.57 million). Accumulated 3,500 BTC since November 2024, profiting 330 million. Still holding 1,500 BTC.

3️⃣ETH whale bottom fishing
A giant whale buys $36.75 million worth of 17,084 ETH. Accumulated 100,000 coins since March 10, costing 224 million. Diverging from BTC.

4️⃣$407 million liquidations
24-hour liquidations: long positions 75% ($307 million), short positions 25% ($100 million). BTC dropped from 75,900 to 70,000. Leverage cleared.

5️⃣Gemini layoffs 30%
The exchange has laid off 30% of its staff since the beginning of the year, with losses exceeding $500 million in 2025. Shifting towards AI for efficiency. The industry winter continues.

6️⃣Kalshi raises $1 billion
Prediction market valuation at $22 billion, doubling in 3 months. Crypto-related sectors are in demand by capital.

News Hotspot Interpretation
【News】S&P 500 perpetual contract officially launched Hyper-liquid, traditional stock index first 24/7 on-chain trading

Many people may not understand this news. Let's break it down:
First, two concepts:
1️⃣ Perpetual contract = futures without expiration date
- Traditional futures have expiration dates (March, June contracts)
- Perpetual contracts can be held indefinitely
- Prices are anchored through "funding rates"

2️⃣ S&P 500 perpetual contract = betting on the rise and fall of the US stock market
- No need to actually buy 500 individual stocks
- Can go long (betting on rise) or short (betting on fall)
- Can leverage (10x, 20x)

Where was it traded before?
- CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) — traditional futures, has expiration dates
- Binance and others — but not officially authorized, "copycat versions"

Current breakthrough:
✅ S&P Dow Jones official authorization
✅ Hyper-liquid on-chain trading
✅ 24/7 all-day trading, even on weekends
✅ Instant settlement, high transparency

Impact on ordinary users:
Benefits:
- One wallet takes care of everything, no need to open a securities account
- Can respond promptly to major news on weekends
- Global access, no regional restrictions

Risks:
- Leverage trading may lead to liquidation to zero
- Smart contract risks need to be assessed
- Initial liquidity may be insufficient

My judgment:
This is another milestone in the "traditional finance going on-chain."
Trend confirmation: Following tokenized stocks, stock index derivatives are also going on-chain.
Future expectations: Nasdaq 100, gold, crude oil... will all come.

Hot News Interpretation
【Federal Reserve Dot Plot Shows Hawkish Signals】

Market Previous Expectations:
- Possible rate cut of 50bp in 2026 (2 times, 25bp each time)

Now the dot plot shows:
- Only a 25bp rate cut in 2026 (1 time)

Conclusion: Rate cut magnitude halved = More tightening than expected = Hawkish signal

Powell also issued a strong inflation warning:
- Inflation persistence exceeds expectations
- Continuing rate hikes not ruled out
- Timing of rate cuts depends on data, not automatic

Impact on Crypto:
❌ Short-term bearish
- Cooling rate cut expectations → Valuation pressure on risk assets
- Dollar may strengthen → BTC price under pressure

⚠️ Mid-term Observation
- A 25bp rate cut is still a rate cut, just less than expected
- If inflation improves, expectations may adjust again
- If the Iran conflict pushes oil prices higher, rate cut space further compressed

My Judgment:
Don't expect significant monetary easing in 2026.
High interest rate environment may last longer.

🧵 News Hotspot Interpretation

【What does the SEC's approval of "tokenized stocks" mean?】

Many people are confused when they see this term. In simple terms:
Traditional Stocks:
- The broker's ledger records "you own 10 shares of Apple"
- Can only trade from Monday to Friday, 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM
- Buy today, settle tomorrow (T+1)

Tokenized Stocks:
- You have an additional Token in your wallet, backed by real stock reserves
- 24/7 trading, can buy and sell on weekends
- On-chain confirmation completes the transaction, instant settlement

The significance of the SEC's approval:
Previously: Bitcoin ETF = Fiat currency can buy Crypto (one-way)
Now: Tokenized Stocks = Traditional assets can become Crypto (two-way)

Next, you might see:
✅ Other exchanges quickly following suit
✅ Tokenized bonds and commodities coming in succession
✅ Traditional financial institutions seriously considering on-chain issuance

There may be compliance friction in the short term, but the long-term direction is set.
The boundaries between traditional finance and Crypto are disappearing.

#Cryptocurrency #SEC #Tokenization #Bitcoin

🌅 Crypto Morning Report 3/19

Market: $2.52T (-3.7%)
$BTC $71,090 (-4.1%)
$ETH $2,196 (-5.8%)

👉 The market corrected more than 3%, with mainstream coins falling across the board; the SEC approved tokenized stocks, opening a new chapter in the integration of TradFi, and the Fed's dot plot released hawkish signals, with geopolitical risks rising and suppressing risk appetite.

🔥 Headlines:
• SEC approved tokenized stocks trading on Nasdaq — A milestone in the integration of Crypto and TradFi

• S&P 500 perpetual contracts launched on Hyperliquid, the first 24/7 on-chain trading of traditional stock indices

• Fed's dot plot suggests a 25bp rate cut in 2026

• Michael Saylor increases Bitcoin purchases

• Iran-Israel conflict escalates, geopolitical risks rise

• Powell's inflation warning triggers a 1% plunge in the Australian dollar

Technical analysis: The market corrected 3.7%, mainstream coins saw broad declines, ETH fell over 5%, focus on support levels

I think many people underestimate the significance of World + Coinbase releasing AgentKit.

It is not just a simple "AI + crypto" co-branding news,
but a crucial infrastructure patch in the AI agent economy:
providing AI agents with an "identity" and "payment capability".

What World is doing is essentially:
👉 binding an AI agent with a proof that there is indeed a real person behind it using World ID.
On the Coinbase side, x402 provides:
👉 enabling agents to complete transactions and payments online directly.

Why is this important?
Because for AI agents to truly scale, it's not just about having a strong model,
we also need to solve three problems:
1. Are you really a real person authorizing it?
2. How does it complete payments?
3. How does it minimize risks of witchcraft/fraud/money laundering?

World is supplementing the "identity layer",
Coinbase is supplementing the "payment layer".
When these two components are connected, AI agents start to resemble a real economic entity that can operate, not just a demo.

More importantly, McKinsey's assessment of agentic commerce is:
By 2030, the global scale could reach $30 trillion to $50 trillion.

So my own understanding is:
What makes this news truly worth watching is not just whether $WLD will rise,
but rather:
Is the AI agent economy starting to enter the stage of "first supplementing infrastructure"?

Moving forward, I will focus on:
· AgentKit developer adoption rates
· Growth of World’s real person verification
· Whether Coinbase/x402 will become an important entry point for agent payments

For AI agents to truly transact, it requires not only intelligence,
but also identity + payment + compliance tracks.
This time, World and Coinbase are addressing the two most critical aspects of these three.