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Chat ID: rock123

$BTC Will this time be different?

Never force yourself to trade; waiting is the best strategy.

$SNDK Plaza is very crowded—people are getting dizzy because of this SanDisk. I’ll share some of my thoughts.

I’m still holding positions. I bought over half at a size of 1500 square meters. My position was opened in June.

$BTC In the recent slight rise of Bitcoin, a lot of short sellers were forcibly liquidated.

Right now, the crypto bear market has reached the end. At this moment, going short is far inferior to going long in both risk-reward ratio and win rate over the long cycle.

In the previous round of the bear market, I remember there was a lot of noise in the market. Many people opened shorts at 16,000 expecting to see Bitcoin drop to 8,000, but in the end, 15,000 was the bottom of the cycle.

The final outcome is always the same: it keeps rising and people keep shorting. They don’t dare to chase longs as it goes up—until emotions hit the limit and they start chasing the upside, only to be hit by a pullback and get liquidated, or trigger panic selling.

$BTC The bear market has already passed 86%.

But there are still many people waiting for the market’s final drop, trying to catch the market’s absolute bottom.

I have a strong hunch. During this cycle, most people will miss the best window for accumulating coins, and the FOMO crowd will keep shorting the market in order to wait for that last drop—only to miss the entire round of the upward move.

Most people just keep saying “wait, wait,” but the whales have already been buying in batches.

$BTC In the next few months, just remember this: no matter how Bitcoin performs.

Buy spot with the green box, then sell years later with the red box—very easy trading.

Never try to catch that needle-point exact position. Nobody has a crystal ball. Buying and selling are always just within a range, not some specific price point.

The market has been pretty boring lately. I'm out on vacation. I'll update the square with a livestream again in a little while.

Some of the coins on BSC have had pretty good price increases recently—like TUT and the white cloth dragon shrimp, etc. But I didn’t participate in any of them; I just watched from the sidelines. Deep down, I know I can’t make money from this kind of stuff.

The price is volatile, and it requires frequently monitoring the chart with a fast trading pace—this doesn’t suit me. Mentally, I also can’t handle the kind of sweeping up-and-down moves of 30%–50% within a single coin on the one-minute chart.

In this market, there are many opportunities. Small-cap, high-volatility assets are better suited for traders with small amounts of capital—people who have strong energy, a mature mindset, and good trading abilities. For big capital, what they need is stability: making money over a cycle, rather than chasing hot spots.

This market has endless opportunities. Choose a trading style that fits you based on your available capital size and how much psychological pressure you can bear.

Right now, Bitcoin is ranging sideways. My account is also staying sideways. I’ll just be patient and wait for the market to build up and pop a big move!

$BTC breakthrough! Something big is coming?

Has anyone made money from this coin $TUT ??

No one can precisely catch the market’s bottom or top. I think the current price is very suitable for continuously accumulating spot purchases, and the probability of an upside move is far greater than the risk of a downside move.

Since February, we’ve been ranging for a full six months. The price has been consolidating and moving sideways within a relatively small range. During these six months, the long and short positioning experience hasn’t been very good, which is also the phase that wears people’s minds down the most.

If you don’t adopt a phased buying strategy at this stage, when the market rises you’ll chase the price, and after a pullback you’ll start selling again.

Many people want to wait for an absolute bottom, and go in with enough leverage to get from the bear market into the bull market and accumulate more capital. But greed and fear are the roots of losses and of missing the move—no matter it’s bull or bear.

$BTC daily chart-level potential head-and-shoulders bottom; MACD is above the zero line and is about to form a golden cross

Let’s play out what happens next

In the short to medium term, inflation expectations rise, and U.S. Treasury prices come under pressure first. Oil prices quickly transmit to transportation, chemicals, and the consumer end, causing CPI/PPI data to come in above expectations.

Rate-cut expectations are dashed; hawkish expectations rebound. The Federal Reserve is forced to keep interest rates high and may even revisit the idea of further hikes. This causes Treasury prices to stop rising and instead plunge sharply (Treasury yields surge).

In the medium term, sustained high oil prices function like an “energy tax” on businesses and consumers, squeezing profit margins for non-energy companies.

A rebound in Treasury yields will lift the risk-free rate. The resulting increase in the discount rate will weigh on overvalued technology stocks in the S&P 500.

A persistently strong U.S. dollar continues to cause foreign-exchange losses for overseas earnings of U.S. multinational companies. As a result, the U.S. stock market will shift from trading sideways near highs to downward adjustment.

Ultimately, the market breaks the balance and returns to macro logic, with two possible outcomes.

1) Oil prices stay elevated; Treasuries keep falling due to persistent inflation pressure (yields remain high). The S&P 500 then clearly pulls back, and the dollar stays strong.

2) High interest rates at high oil prices backfire on the real economy, leading to a demand slowdown. Oil prices subsequently crash; Treasuries rally sharply as rate-cut expectations recover. After a bottom is tested, the U.S. stock market finds a bottom.

Rising oil prices can increase expectations of inflation and raise expectations for interest rates. This should normally lead to falling U.S. Treasury bond prices and put downward pressure on the S&P 500’s valuation.

An appreciating U.S. dollar typically suppresses U.S.-dollar-denominated oil prices and squeezes the overseas profits of U.S. equities’ multinational companies.

The US dollar index is rising, the S&P 500 is rising, US government bonds are rising, and oil prices are rising.

These signals are too dangerous—they look ready to topple.

1. MicroStrategy may need to sell $5 billion worth of Bitcoin to address cash flow and reserve pressures.
2. The Clear Act keeps getting stuck in Congress amid repeated standoffs between traditional banks and the crypto industry over provisions related to "stablecoin yield."
3. The conflict between the US and Iran is still ongoing under high tension, with a heightened global risk-off sentiment.
4. A vulnerability in the Coldcard cold wallet led to a large-scale theft of coins.

......

These are the most extremely bearish news items in the recent period for the crypto market, but the coin price has never been able to drop significantly, which indicates that the market has already priced in the bad news in advance.

The only thing worth worrying about is whether a fall in US tech stocks will pull Bitcoin down as well—but everything remains unchanged: the more it drops, the more people buy.

It’s normal that everyone has different views when it comes to trading.

I’m betting on the bill passing—good news for crypto.

I’m not betting on the final drop. I closed my short positions, and started DCA into spot.

The market is the best way to turn knowledge into profit.

So I’m bullish—some people don’t have to bare their teeth and complain about how it’s going to fall and hit numbers starting with 5 and whatever.

First of all, I’m trading spot. Second, if you don’t understand what a DCA strategy is, go ask an AI. What I’m betting on is a 3–4x move or even higher in the future—not that tiny intraday fluctuation that I don’t care about.

Different cycles, different strategies, and different outcomes.

Wishing us all a wonderful future. 😋😋😋

Many people see this message and think that even Trump has started selling Bitcoin, so the CLEAR Act definitely won’t be passed.

My view is exactly the opposite. The biggest risk to this bill is actually Trump himself. His stupid sons can only make money through fraud and insider information. Once the market becomes compliant, they’ll effectively be forced into the open without protection.

Selling Bitcoin, on the other hand, actually clears obstacles for the bill to be passed.

High-frequency quant firms pay $100,000 a month to Trump for the latest firsthand information, placing bets on the market—what chance do retail investors still have?

Where can I carpool? Very urgent 😟😟😟