华尔街保洁员Rock
中长线交易员/宏观分析师/擅长交易心理学/只在关键位置做交易/X: wallstreetcln
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$BTC When I was shorting at 126,000, everyone told me I would see 130,000 and 150,000. Now, at 95,000, I'm telling you this is not the bottom. Will you believe it? Continue to hold the short position!
大致扫了一眼广场，目前做多情绪依然异常高涨，这意味着本轮行情的底部大概率尚未完全走出来。
那为什么还会有这么多人持续追多？本质原因并不是看多，而是错过了前期最佳做空位置后的情绪反扑——不甘心、想把亏损“打回来”，于是开始逆趋势交易。
但市场并不奖励情绪。很多时候，错过了就是错过了，真正成熟的选择是耐心等待下一轮趋势的确认。在空窗期里，你可以学习、旅行、陪伴家人，而不是强行参与一段不属于你的行情。
当你开始拼命想从市场里把原本的亏损夺回来时，往往也是最容易被市场给予“最后一击”的时刻。
那为什么还会有这么多人持续追多？本质原因并不是看多，而是错过了前期最佳做空位置后的情绪反扑——不甘心、想把亏损“打回来”，于是开始逆趋势交易。
但市场并不奖励情绪。很多时候，错过了就是错过了，真正成熟的选择是耐心等待下一轮趋势的确认。在空窗期里，你可以学习、旅行、陪伴家人，而不是强行参与一段不属于你的行情。
当你开始拼命想从市场里把原本的亏损夺回来时，往往也是最容易被市场给予“最后一击”的时刻。
Forward the post from January 10, when the Bitcoin price was around 90,000.
On January 15, exited all long hedge positions entered at 85,800 in the community at a price of 97,000, reversed direction and began to short BTC in batches.
On January 15, exited all long hedge positions entered at 85,800 in the community at a price of 97,000, reversed direction and began to short BTC in batches.
Current trading operations
1、Maintain 126k short position
2、Add more short positions between 97k and 107k
3、Hold a Bitcoin long hedge position of 85,800 USD
4、Set the BTC long position stop-loss at the entry area, reduced position once at 92,500 USD
5、Next target is around 70,000 USD for Bitcoin, bearish
1、Maintain 126k short position
2、Add more short positions between 97k and 107k
3、Hold a Bitcoin long hedge position of 85,800 USD
4、Set the BTC long position stop-loss at the entry area, reduced position once at 92,500 USD
5、Next target is around 70,000 USD for Bitcoin, bearish
On January 11, $ETH , it was mentioned in the community that the 2000 dollar Ethereum is just a matter of time, but unfortunately the market did not provide the opportunity to add short positions at 3600-3800 dollars.
70k is loading⌛️
$BTC The price this week is highly likely to close below the EMA100 weekly line, and the market structure may shift from a trending market to a new sideways range phase, gradually advancing towards the 70k area.
It is important to emphasize that 70k is not the ultimate target of this bear market, but rather a phase for short observation and speculation.
It is important to emphasize that 70k is not the ultimate target of this bear market, but rather a phase for short observation and speculation.
$BTC The price this week is highly likely to close below the EMA100 weekly line, and the market structure may shift from a trending market to a new sideways range phase, gradually advancing towards the 70k area.
It is important to emphasize that 70k is not the ultimate target of this bear market, but rather a phase for short observation and speculation.
It is important to emphasize that 70k is not the ultimate target of this bear market, but rather a phase for short observation and speculation.
When MSTR admits defeat, it is the most desperate time for the market.
It is still early, still early, and Huazi has taken on leverage; these few days are very likely to be sleepless.
It is still early, still early, and Huazi has taken on leverage; these few days are very likely to be sleepless.
In every round of a bear market, a batch of institutions will be eliminated.
In the face of absolute trends, any amount of capital is just a mantis trying to stop a car.
So why does he keep shouting 'eternal bull market'?
Because he holds a large amount of ETH chips, and if he sells them all at once, it will inevitably cause a severe shock to the market.
The only way out is to attract retail investors to absorb liquidity through narrative and emotion, completing a quiet exit amidst the noise.
In the face of absolute trends, any amount of capital is just a mantis trying to stop a car.
So why does he keep shouting 'eternal bull market'?
Because he holds a large amount of ETH chips, and if he sells them all at once, it will inevitably cause a severe shock to the market.
The only way out is to attract retail investors to absorb liquidity through narrative and emotion, completing a quiet exit amidst the noise.
As the documents related to Epstein are gradually disclosed, combined with the rumors circulating in the market about a potential connection to Bitcoin, the emotional impact is inevitable. Even if these claims are ultimately debunked, the market often does not wait for facts to clarify, but instead prices in panic in advance, further spreading emotional selling.
From a rational perspective, these rumors may not necessarily have a substantial impact on the long-term value of Bitcoin. However, in the current fragile market structure, any negative narrative will be amplified and become a catalyst for accelerating the decline.
Considering both technical and cyclical perspectives, my judgment on Bitcoin remains clear and bearish. The price trend has fully validated the previous speculation about the formation of a cycle top, and the top judgment proposed in the range of 115k–125k is gradually being fulfilled by the market. Bitcoin has undoubtedly entered a bear market phase, and the original medium to long-term logic still holds.
Summary:
1. Bitcoin has effectively broken below the 100-week moving average, which is a historically significant key indicator, reaffirming the bear market structure.
2. Expectations for the bottom of this cycle have further shifted downward, with the new low range expected to fall between 54,000 and 44,000 dollars.
3. The price has broken below MSTR's comprehensive cost line of about 76,000 dollars, significantly amplifying market risk exposure and exacerbating panic and passive selling pressure.
4. The overall trend remains in a unilateral downward phase, and the cycle top judgment has been repeatedly validated by the market.
5. Strategically, I continue to maintain a bearish outlook, with no plans for profit-taking or reversal in the short term.
Overall, the current market is not experiencing "excessive panic" but is undergoing a systematic correction of previous overestimations, and the downward cycle has not yet ended.
From a rational perspective, these rumors may not necessarily have a substantial impact on the long-term value of Bitcoin. However, in the current fragile market structure, any negative narrative will be amplified and become a catalyst for accelerating the decline.
Considering both technical and cyclical perspectives, my judgment on Bitcoin remains clear and bearish. The price trend has fully validated the previous speculation about the formation of a cycle top, and the top judgment proposed in the range of 115k–125k is gradually being fulfilled by the market. Bitcoin has undoubtedly entered a bear market phase, and the original medium to long-term logic still holds.
Summary:
1. Bitcoin has effectively broken below the 100-week moving average, which is a historically significant key indicator, reaffirming the bear market structure.
2. Expectations for the bottom of this cycle have further shifted downward, with the new low range expected to fall between 54,000 and 44,000 dollars.
3. The price has broken below MSTR's comprehensive cost line of about 76,000 dollars, significantly amplifying market risk exposure and exacerbating panic and passive selling pressure.
4. The overall trend remains in a unilateral downward phase, and the cycle top judgment has been repeatedly validated by the market.
5. Strategically, I continue to maintain a bearish outlook, with no plans for profit-taking or reversal in the short term.
Overall, the current market is not experiencing "excessive panic" but is undergoing a systematic correction of previous overestimations, and the downward cycle has not yet ended.
What will happen to Bitcoin next? (Weekly report on 2026/2/2)
Two weeks ago, when the price of Bitcoin was around 95k, I clearly pointed out in the weekly report (within the community) that the market at that time was essentially a high-level consolidation, and this consolidation leaned towards a bearish outlook in the trend structure, with a drop below 80k being just a matter of time. It turns out that this judgment was not alarmist. BTC fell below 80k as expected, and the trend this week is actually more significant than most people realize.
A seriously undervalued signal in the market is that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week moving average (MA100). This moving average has historically been an important boundary for distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. For a period of time, BTC has consistently operated above the MA100, and the breakdown this week indicates that the long-term trend structure has changed.
A seriously undervalued signal in the market is that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week moving average (MA100). This moving average has historically been an important boundary for distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. For a period of time, BTC has consistently operated above the MA100, and the breakdown this week indicates that the long-term trend structure has changed.
What will happen to Bitcoin next? (Weekly report on 2026/2/2)
Two weeks ago, when the price of Bitcoin was around 95k, I clearly pointed out in the weekly report (within the community) that the market at that time was essentially a high-level consolidation, and this consolidation leaned towards a bearish outlook in the trend structure, with a drop below 80k being just a matter of time. It turns out that this judgment was not alarmist. BTC fell below 80k as expected, and the trend this week is actually more significant than most people realize.
A seriously undervalued signal in the market is that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week moving average (MA100). This moving average has historically been an important boundary for distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. For a period of time, BTC has consistently operated above the MA100, and the breakdown this week indicates that the long-term trend structure has changed.
A seriously undervalued signal in the market is that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week moving average (MA100). This moving average has historically been an important boundary for distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. For a period of time, BTC has consistently operated above the MA100, and the breakdown this week indicates that the long-term trend structure has changed.
Many people are still focusing on the clearing map for trading while ignoring the overall fundamentals. I observed the liquidity crisis back in September, and I will share again some of the things I wrote at that time. #流动性危机
My gold and silver positions are limited to physical, as mentioned earlier.
I opened a very small position in paper gold and silver to test the waters, after all, the decoupling is severe at the moment, and China's demand for silver is still increasing.
I opened a very small position in paper gold and silver to test the waters, after all, the decoupling is severe at the moment, and China's demand for silver is still increasing.
Very good buying point, I have decided to continue increasing my position!
This headlong drop happened again over the weekend, likely due to a certain institution's quantitative robot starting to offload. Currently, the coin price is close to MicroStrategy's cost price, and the big bomb hasn't exploded yet; the bottom-fishing continues to wait.
Hmm, now is not a good time to buy the dip.
Looking back now, our short-selling strategy has outperformed the entire market.
Since August, there has been a large number of insider sell-offs in the market.
I have been tracking this data for over a year, but I have never seen such a scale of insider sell-offs, which has continued from August 2025 to the present.
This week remains unchanged, as insiders seem to have reached some kind of consensus? They keep selling!
I have been tracking this data for over a year, but I have never seen such a scale of insider sell-offs, which has continued from August 2025 to the present.
This week remains unchanged, as insiders seem to have reached some kind of consensus? They keep selling!
$BTC Who still remembers the short positions at price levels of 97k and above? If the market allows for building positions, this is hardly worth mentioning. But looking at the perfect trend on the chart, it only triggered a short position once, and then the price plummeted by 20%.
What exactly happened to silver today?
#XAG What exactly happened to silver today?
Today, silver experienced a significant drop, and the core reason for this trend is actually just one: an extreme scale of short positions appeared in the futures market, which pressed down prices through intense selling pressure.
This point can be easily seen from the futures trading volume. To further validate this judgment, I also observed some very interesting and highly consistent structural signals that clearly indicate: a portion of shorts are taking the opportunity to exit the market. And today, the Shanghai market and the COMEX market almost simultaneously provided these shorts with a 'decent exit' window.
Today, silver experienced a significant drop, and the core reason for this trend is actually just one: an extreme scale of short positions appeared in the futures market, which pressed down prices through intense selling pressure.
This point can be easily seen from the futures trading volume. To further validate this judgment, I also observed some very interesting and highly consistent structural signals that clearly indicate: a portion of shorts are taking the opportunity to exit the market. And today, the Shanghai market and the COMEX market almost simultaneously provided these shorts with a 'decent exit' window.
The privacy coin sector remains strong, even in a bear market.
If there is a good rebound in the future, privacy coins will definitely lead the entire crypto industry!
If there is a good rebound in the future, privacy coins will definitely lead the entire crypto industry!
Currently still holding a position of 126k and an additional short position of 97000, and I am currently in a wide range washout. Even though I am very bearish on the macroeconomics of 2026, I still hope the market can go up, triggering more of my short orders and continuing to expand the scale of my short positions. Similarly, I have also been paying attention to the privacy coin sector recently.
I said that the bear market has just begun.
From a temporal perspective, we have not yet reached the ideal bottom fishing window; preliminary judgment suggests that a more suitable timing may be around October.
In the next cycle, there are currently no plans to layout altcoins. Until the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) clearly defines whether altcoins belong to securities or commodities, we will continue to maintain a wait-and-see approach to avoid unnecessary policy and compliance risks.
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum short positions continue to be held, and position management and entry-exit logic are being carried out according to the original trading plan.
In the next cycle, there are currently no plans to layout altcoins. Until the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) clearly defines whether altcoins belong to securities or commodities, we will continue to maintain a wait-and-see approach to avoid unnecessary policy and compliance risks.
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum short positions continue to be held, and position management and entry-exit logic are being carried out according to the original trading plan.
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