Shamaldi

What is actually happening?
Pakistan is trying to revive the Islamadabad MoU, an interim US–Iran peace framework signed in June. Pakistan says its latest discussions with Iran produced “significant progress,” with the focus on de-escalation, the Strait of Hormuz and getting the US–Iran negotiation process moving again.
There are several important developments:
🇵🇰 Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian leadership.
🇺🇸 Trump had reportedly spoken with Munir before the Tehran visit and encouraged Pakistan to use its influence to bring Iran back toward negotiations.
🇮🇷 Iran has indicated that it wants the US to honor its commitments under the existing Islamabad MoU.
🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz is a major issue because disruption there threatens global energy supplies.
⚠️ At the same time, the US has expanded sanctions on Iran and Iran has threatened retaliation, so the situation remains highly fragile.
Pakistan’s own foreign ministry has previously said that resolving the Hormuz standoff could create conditions for the US and Iran to return to technical-level negotiations.
What could happen to Bitcoin and crypto?
I would look at three scenarios:
Scenario
Bitcoin/crypto reaction
Risk
🟢 Peace talks progress
Bullish
Lower geopolitical risk
🟡 Talks continue but no agreement
Sideways/volatile
Medium
🔴 Talks collapse / war escalates
Bearish initially
High
🟢 1. If negotiations genuinely progress
This is the most bullish scenario for crypto.
If the US and Iran move toward a real ceasefire and eventually reopen/secure Hormuz, markets could see:
Iran peace progress → oil risk falls → inflation fears ease → risk appetite improves → crypto benefits.
Bitcoin could receive additional support because investors tend to move back into risk assets when geopolitical uncertainty decreases.
We have already seen this type of relationship during previous Iran peace developments: reports of peace talks have coincided with falling oil prices and rising Bitcoin.
And recently Bitcoin has already shown strong momentum; BTC reportedly gained more than 20% over the previous week, while ETH, SOL and XRP also posted large gains.
🟡 2. If we only get diplomatic headlines
This is where I would be careful.
“Significant progress” ≠ peace agreement.
The US has not yet publicly confirmed a new agreement, and Iran continues to face sanctions and tensions remain around Hormuz.
So we could see:
Headline → BTC pumps → traders take profit → BTC retraces → another headline → pump again.
That would create very high volatility.
🔴 3. If negotiations fail
This could become dangerous for crypto.
If Iran blocks Hormuz, attacks increase, or the US expands military action:
War escalation → oil ↑ → inflation fears ↑ → risk-off → stocks/crypto ↓
Bitcoin could initially behave more like a risk asset rather than a traditional safe haven.
Altcoins would probably be hit harder than BTC.
For example, in a major risk-off move I would expect something roughly like:
BTC → relatively strongest
ETH → more volatile
SOL/XRP → higher volatility
small-cap altcoins → potentially severe downside
My current view
The Pakistan development is bullish for the medium-term crypto outlook, but I would call it “early bullish” rather than “confirmed bullish.”
The biggest confirmation I would watch is:
1. US officially agrees to negotiations
↓
2. Iran agrees to negotiations
↓
3. Hormuz reopening/de-escalation
↓
4. Actual ceasefire/settlement
If we get #1 + #2, crypto could start pricing in peace.
If we get #3, I would become considerably more bullish.
If we get #4, the geopolitical risk premium could fall substantially.
For BTC specifically
I wouldn’t chase a huge green candle simply because of today’s Pakistan/Iran news.
I’d watch BTC price + oil + US dollar + gold together.
A particularly bullish combination would be:
Oil ↓ + Gold ↓ + DXY ↓ + BTC ↑
That would suggest money is moving away from geopolitical/inflation protection and back toward risk assets.
Conversely:
Oil ↑ + Gold ↑ + DXY ↑ + BTC ↓
would indicate the market is becoming more defensive.
Bottom line: Today’s news is positive, but the real market-moving event isn’t Pakistan saying “significant progress.” The major catalyst would be Washington and Tehran officially agreeing to restart negotiations and taking concrete steps toward reopening Hormuz. That could be a strong bullish catalyst for BTC and especially for high-beta altcoins.

Bitcoin started October extremely strong. BTC reached a new ATH around $126,200–$126,000 in the first week. Then the market reversed sharply.
On October 10, 2025, a major risk-off event triggered an enormous crypto liquidation wave. CoinGecko reported roughly $19 billion in liquidations in one day, one of the largest liquidation events in crypto history.
BTC subsequently dropped toward the $103K–$104K area, while ETH also suffered a significant decline. By the end of October, BTC had fallen roughly 5% for the month, breaking its long-running pattern of positive October performance.
Why your warning makes sense
The important lesson isn’t “October = dump.” It’s:
Strong green candles → traders become confident → leverage increases → a sudden catalyst can cause liquidations → selling accelerates.
That’s why your point about “without selling, price can’t keep going up” is useful. Markets need profit-taking and corrections. A few green days don’t automatically mean BTC must continue higher.
But there is an important difference today
As of August 21, 2026, BTC has just experienced a very strong move. Recent reports say BTC pushed above $70K and toward $73K, while ETH also rallied strongly. The move has been supported by Treasury-market developments and positive crypto-policy news.
So I would not say a $72K → $67K correction is guaranteed.
I’d frame it as a risk scenario:
🟢 BTC holds above the recent breakout: bullish continuation remains possible.
🟡 BTC reaches ~$72K–$75K and gets rejected: profit-taking/correction becomes more interesting.
🔴 BTC loses ~$70K decisively: downside toward the upper-$60Ks becomes more plausible.
⚠️ Heavy leverage + sudden negative news: liquidation can make the move much faster than expected.
And remember: $72K is already being tested/reached in the current move, so your original “first 72K” target is no longer a distant target. The key question now is whether BTC can hold above that area, not simply touch it.
My view: don’t short simply because BTC has been green for two days. Wait for confirmation—especially a rejection or breakdown. If you’re trading with a small balance, protecting the balance is more important than catching every move.

How “no talks with Iran” could affect crypto
Initial reaction: 🟥 Risk-off
If Trump confirms that there are no talks and none are scheduled, markets may interpret that as:
No talks → higher escalation risk → Hormuz disruption → oil ↑ → inflation fears ↑ → yields ↑ → risk assets ↓
Crypto is still strongly influenced by global liquidity and risk appetite, so BTC/ETH can initially behave more like risk assets than safe havens.
That is already visible today: BTC has remained around $64K despite the geopolitical escalation rather than immediately behaving like gold.
🔴 BTC — bearish risk if escalation increases
The most dangerous scenario for BTC would be:
🇺🇸 U.S.–Iran tensions escalate
↓
🛢️ Oil > $90 and continues higher
↓
📈 Inflation expectations increase
↓
📈 Treasury yields increase
↓
💵 USD strengthens
↓
📉 Stocks + crypto sell off
Reuters reports Brent around $91/barrel and U.S. 30-year Treasury yields at their highest level in 19 years. That’s an unfavorable combination for speculative assets.
But BTC has an important strength
BTC is currently holding around $64K, even with the geopolitical shock.
That is actually interesting.
If BTC repeatedly tests the $63K–$64K region and buyers continue defending it, the market may be absorbing the geopolitical risk.
A strong BTC reclaim above the mid-$64Ks would therefore be more meaningful than simply looking at the Iran headline.
🟣 ETH — more vulnerable than BTC
ETH is around $1,900 currently.
If risk-off conditions accelerate, I would expect:
BTC → relatively stronger
ETH → potentially weaker
ALTCOINS → highest risk
Why?
During geopolitical shocks, liquidity normally concentrates into the largest and most liquid assets first. ETH and especially smaller altcoins can experience larger percentage moves.
So I would not aggressively long altcoins simply because BTC is holding $64K.
🟢 But there is a VERY bullish scenario for crypto
This is the important part.
Suppose the current situation suddenly changes:
Trump/Iran talks restart
→ Hormuz reopening becomes likely
→ Oil falls
→ Inflation fears decrease
→ Treasury yields fall
→ USD weakens
→ Stocks recover
→ Risk appetite returns
→ BTC/ETH could move sharply higher
That would potentially be much more bullish for crypto than the current geopolitical situation.
We’ve already seen how sensitive crypto is to U.S.–Iran developments: when ceasefire/deal expectations improved previously, BTC moved higher alongside broader risk assets.
⚠️ The biggest thing I would watch
Don’t watch only BTC.
Watch these four together:
BTC ↑
Oil ↓
US yields ↓
DXY ↓
➡️ Very bullish environment for crypto.
But:
BTC ↓
Oil ↑
Yields ↑
DXY ↑
➡️ Very dangerous environment for crypto longs.
📌 For your ETH trading specifically
With ETH around $1,900, I would not chase a long purely because of the Iran headline.
I would rather wait for confirmation that ETH can hold/reclaim resistance while BTC remains stable and oil/yields stop rising.
Current bias:
BTC: 🟡 Neutral / cautious
ETH: 🟡 Neutral-to-bearish
Altcoins: 🔴 High risk
If diplomatic talks suddenly restart: 🟢 Strong bullish reversal potential
The market is currently caught between geopolitical fear and the possibility of a sudden diplomatic headline, so fake breakouts and violent liquidation wicks are especially likely right now.

Iran is preparing for a full-scale war with the United States.
Citing senior Iranian government sources, the media reports that Iran has repeatedly said it will not hold talks with the United States. With no apparent way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it is believed that U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to begin a war against Iran.
The U.S. president has reportedly held a series of secret emergency military meetings at Camp David. These meetings are said to be related to issuing an order to begin an attack on Iran.
Meanwhile, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command in the Middle East, concluded yesterday a 10-day tour of six Middle Eastern countries, including Israel.
Israel’s Channel 13 television reported that Brad Cooper visited Israel and held consultations regarding Israel’s possible participation in an attack on Iran.
It was reported that Admiral Cooper told Israeli military officials that Iran would be brought to the negotiating table only after being weakened militarily. He later denied these reports.
However, the U.S. Navy’s aircraft carrier USS George Washington, which carries fighter jets, is currently heading toward the Middle East. The George Washington is reportedly being sent to the region as a replacement for the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which carries combat aircraft and whose condition in the region has deteriorated, requiring it to be withdrawn. This too has been described as part of preparations for a possible attack on Iran.
The duration of the agreement between Iran and the United States to halt attacks is reportedly coming to an end. Iran has not held any further talks with the United States, and there appears to be no prospect of another agreement.
Despite pressure and threats from the United States, Iran has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says it will not reopen Hormuz unless the losses it suffered in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes are compensated for, the blockade is lifted, its military forces are withdrawn, and Iranian funds are released. By keeping Hormuz closed, the United States is also facing economic pressure.
Based on President Trump’s statements and actions, many analysts continue to say that the United States appears to be preparing to launch a war against Iran.
At the same time, reports continue to discuss the difficulties the United States would face in carrying out military strikes against Iran.
Iranian and military leaders say that Iran’s forces are fully prepared to confront the enemy.