The earnings reports from companies in the S&P 500 on October 23-24, 2024, had a positive influence on both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, largely due to a combination of earnings surprises and stronger-than-expected performances in key sectors.

Many companies exceeded analysts' expectations, with over 80% of those reporting so far surpassing earnings estimates, particularly in the Financial, Healthcare, and Consumer sectors. This strong performance boosted market confidence and led to increased market liquidity. The positive sentiment in equity markets, particularly when large-cap companies post strong earnings, often spills over into alternative asset classes like Bitcoin, as investors look for diversification opportunities.

The outlook for Bitcoin in October 2024 is notably bullish, supported by a series of positive events. First, Bitcoin's price has seen a significant rise, approaching $70,000. This rally is driven by a bullish crossover in the MACD indicator on the weekly chart, signaling a trend shift toward a new growth phase, similar to the boom seen at the end of 2023.

Additionally, options traders are betting heavily that Bitcoin will continue its upward trajectory. According to Kaiko data, options positions are targeting prices above $70,000, with trading volumes focused on expirations at the end of October. Historically, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin, with only two negative closes since 2013, which further boosts investor optimism.

Analysts have also pointed out that the macroeconomic environment, particularly the recent interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, has increased the appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially driving further price increases by the end of the year.

The U.S. government won a lawsuit against Battle Born Investments and gained the right to dispose of 69,370 bitcoins (~4.4 billion dollars) confiscated from Silk Road.

When Germany sold 49,858 bitcoins in June-July, the price of bitcoin dropped from $69,000 to $53,000. Trump has expressed interest in creating a strategic bitcoin reserve, and if he were in charge, it could be assumed that he wouldn’t sell them.

However, Biden is in power, and if he and his administration decide to sell the bitcoins to prevent them from potentially going to Trump in the event of an election win, we might see a drop even more significant than what happened in June-July.

The sale of the 69,370 bitcoins confiscated from the Silk Road black market has been confirmed. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Battle Born Investments' appeal, granting the government authorization to proceed with the sale of the bitcoins, valued at approximately 4.4 billion dollars. The U.S. Marshals Service will manage the auction, and it is expected to be one of the largest sales of seized bitcoins in history. This sale could have a significant impact on bitcoin prices, as has happened with similar sales in the past.

The market capitalization of stablecoins has decreased by 780 million dollars, reflecting a reduction in the market's purchasing power. This decline could lead to reduced demand for cryptocurrencies, potentially resulting in price stagnation or a decrease.

The 2300$ mark is the price at which 2.4 million addresses purchased 52.6 million Ethereum coins. If the price drops below this level, profit-taking may begin to minimize losses, triggering a more significant price decline.

If we focus solely on technical analysis and ignore the fundamentals, Bitcoin is currently in a descending channel. As long as it remains within this range and doesn't break through the $68k resistance, it’s too early to talk about a bull run. The trend remains bearish until a clear breakout above that key level occurs.

On Tuesday, October 8, the cryptocurrency market has been pressured downward due to a moderation in risk appetite, as the Chinese government did not announce new economic stimulus measures. There is also caution due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the expectation of the inflation data in the United States, which will be released on Thursday and will serve to adjust investors' expectations regarding the future of interest rates. Nevertheless, major cryptocurrencies remain above key levels. Strategists at QCP Capital highlighted that the lack of new stimulus measures in China hit the stocks of companies in that country, causing the MSCI AC Asia Pacific index to register its largest drop in a month. However, this could deliver a positive surprise for cryptocurrencies. They said that as the Chinese rally fades, they anticipate a reallocation of capital toward cryptocurrencies, reflecting the growing maturity of the industry as an alternative risk asset.
Nevertheless, analysts anticipate a downside risk ahead of the upcoming third-quarter earnings season and the release of the U.S. CPI, as well as geopolitical tensions that further complicate the outlook. However, we maintain a medium-term optimistic stance, expecting that electoral headlines will continue to drive cryptocurrency movements. This was evidenced by Elon Musk's comment on PolyMarket, where it was predicted that Trump would lead Harris with greater accuracy in traditional polls, an event that coincided with Bitcoin's bullish movement during yesterday's U.S. market opening.